Over the past week the Rockies had a decent chance to win 7 out of 7 games, but in the end only won 2. The biggest reason being the batters failed to capitalize on Run scoring situations. But here's an overlooked secret: The Rockies haven't been scoring well all year.
Through 54 games, the Rockies have scored 4 runs or less in 28 of the games. Their record is 6-22 in those games. In the other 26 games where they have scored 5 runs or more, they are 22-4.
The critics are out again with this slump. One clueless guy applauded the lack of turnout to last night's game as evidence the Denver fans won't turn out anymore for bad play. Really? Last night's attendance was 600 less than the night before and about 2,000 less than Houston drew for TWO games on Monday and Tuesday. It's also 3,000 MORE than their worst season of average from 2005 23,634. It's 6,000 less than the Rockies Season Average. There have been 8 games with a lower attendance including the game against Arizona Monday a week ago.
The headline writer labeled the Rockies "Embarrassed". Sure it wasn't great to lose 3 of 4 to the AL's worst team, but let's be realistic. The Rockies recently beat the World Champion San Francisco Giants in 3 of 4, and that didn't get labeled with superlatives.
The Rockies are still in the Division Hunt, and are still playing better than .500 ball. They had a good April and a not-so-good May. It may turn out that this team isn't a contender, but it is definitely an improvement over last year especially in the Pitching. I think the fans are supporting the product and we haven't even started the summer or had really good weather yet.
I don't believe we have seen the best in this team yet, and we may not have seen it's worst. Will the first 3rd of the season be a learning experience, the best or the worst in this team? Let's not jump off the bandwagagon too quickly while we are still in the running.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Marking Time
The Rockies after 47 games worked their way to a 3-way tie in the NL West standings with the Giants, D-Backs and Rockies all having identical 26-21 records.
Four weeks ago on April 25th, the Rockies held a slim 1 game lead over both teams at 14-8 vs. 13-9. Which means over the past 4 weeks all 3 teams have played .500 baseball. (Rockies 12-13; Giants/D-Backs 13-12).
One or more of the teams will break away soon. Which one? And could the Padres get into the mix?
Let's start with the D-Backs: Coming off a 6 game road trip they head home for 4 days/5 games against the Padres and Texas, before heading to Texas, Chicago and St. Louis. All in All they play 15 of their next 23 on the Road.
The Giants meanwhile get to stay home for another week, hosting the Rockies and then playing 4 games against Oakland 2A/2H followed by a 3 game road trip to St. Louis, home for two against Toronto, followed by a 9 game road trip to Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. Altogether: 7 home 14 away.
Meanwhile the Rockies have a 5 game road trip to SF, and Houston, 5 games at home against Houston, and LA, A road "trip" to Cincy for 3 and then a 10 game home stand. 15 H/8 A
In Summary, the Rockies have the same amount of home games over the next 3.5 weeks that Arizona and San Francisco have combined. The Rockies are the team that has the advantage for a few weeks at least.
Next week introduces Rivalry Week where for the first time all 30 MLB teams will play interleague games at the same time with home and home 2 game sets with their "Natural" Rival. For the Giants they stay home and play Oakland, While the D-Backs take on Texas and the Rockies get the Astros. This is really the only major diversion from a balanced schedule with one team. This year I would rather play the Astros at 20 games under .500 than the A's or the Rangers who are at the top of the AL West.
Four weeks ago on April 25th, the Rockies held a slim 1 game lead over both teams at 14-8 vs. 13-9. Which means over the past 4 weeks all 3 teams have played .500 baseball. (Rockies 12-13; Giants/D-Backs 13-12).
One or more of the teams will break away soon. Which one? And could the Padres get into the mix?
Let's start with the D-Backs: Coming off a 6 game road trip they head home for 4 days/5 games against the Padres and Texas, before heading to Texas, Chicago and St. Louis. All in All they play 15 of their next 23 on the Road.
The Giants meanwhile get to stay home for another week, hosting the Rockies and then playing 4 games against Oakland 2A/2H followed by a 3 game road trip to St. Louis, home for two against Toronto, followed by a 9 game road trip to Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta. Altogether: 7 home 14 away.
Meanwhile the Rockies have a 5 game road trip to SF, and Houston, 5 games at home against Houston, and LA, A road "trip" to Cincy for 3 and then a 10 game home stand. 15 H/8 A
In Summary, the Rockies have the same amount of home games over the next 3.5 weeks that Arizona and San Francisco have combined. The Rockies are the team that has the advantage for a few weeks at least.
Next week introduces Rivalry Week where for the first time all 30 MLB teams will play interleague games at the same time with home and home 2 game sets with their "Natural" Rival. For the Giants they stay home and play Oakland, While the D-Backs take on Texas and the Rockies get the Astros. This is really the only major diversion from a balanced schedule with one team. This year I would rather play the Astros at 20 games under .500 than the A's or the Rangers who are at the top of the AL West.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Perspective
The Rockies took 3 of 4 from the Giants over the weekend, stopping a skid of losing 4 straight series and 5 of the previous 6. This week they take on the Division Leading Diamondbacks before heading to San Francisco to take on the Giants again.
Let's face it--the Giants were horrible this week and the Rockies had a chance to sweep the series (or on the other hand they could have ended up with a split.)
Back to the Giants. It's hard to imagine a worse week for them where they gave up 52 runs in 6 games, and had 13 errors, 7 in back to back games with the Rockies Friday and Saturday. They also scored 28 runs and managed to come back on Thursday from a 6-0 deficit to win.
So even perceived good teams (The Giants did win the World Series last year) have rough stretches. Is the starting pitching fall apart? Is the fielding going to continue to commit 2 errors per game. Probably not.
The Rockies are currently tied with the Giants for 2nd, one game behind the D-Backs who now come into Coors Field winning 9 of their last 13. In the past week they outscored their opponents 19-17 in winning 4 of 6. But they gave up 10 runs in one game on Monday, and scored 9 runs in one game on Friday.
All that is to keep the Rockies season in perspective. It's May 20th. This team is showing great promise and is likely at this point to win more games than last season, and possibly even more than 2011. Their pitching across the board is holding up better, their hitting is solid throughout the lineup. And they have survived a couple of key players on the disabled list.
And for now at least they are in the thick of the race.
Let's face it--the Giants were horrible this week and the Rockies had a chance to sweep the series (or on the other hand they could have ended up with a split.)
Back to the Giants. It's hard to imagine a worse week for them where they gave up 52 runs in 6 games, and had 13 errors, 7 in back to back games with the Rockies Friday and Saturday. They also scored 28 runs and managed to come back on Thursday from a 6-0 deficit to win.
So even perceived good teams (The Giants did win the World Series last year) have rough stretches. Is the starting pitching fall apart? Is the fielding going to continue to commit 2 errors per game. Probably not.
The Rockies are currently tied with the Giants for 2nd, one game behind the D-Backs who now come into Coors Field winning 9 of their last 13. In the past week they outscored their opponents 19-17 in winning 4 of 6. But they gave up 10 runs in one game on Monday, and scored 9 runs in one game on Friday.
All that is to keep the Rockies season in perspective. It's May 20th. This team is showing great promise and is likely at this point to win more games than last season, and possibly even more than 2011. Their pitching across the board is holding up better, their hitting is solid throughout the lineup. And they have survived a couple of key players on the disabled list.
And for now at least they are in the thick of the race.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
At the Quarter-Pole
Last night the Rockies completed the first quarter of the season (40 games) with a 21-19 record. That includes an 10-12 record in the 22 games played on the road and 11-7 in the 18 Home games. The good news is that the second quarter will consist of 22 of the next 30 games played at Coors Field. Followed by a 9 game road trip to the East before making up a game with the Mets to finish out the first half of the season. This includes 17 NL West games-- 14 at home, and 3 in San Francisco.
The good news of the first quarter is the Rockies have been better than expected. Last year they were 8-14 on the Road to start the season, and 15-25 overall. The Rockies actually improved slightly over the rest of the season as the first quarter expanded for the entire season would have been 61-101. Last year strangely, they were pretty consistent in each Quarter.
1) 15-25
2) 16-25 (31-50)
3) 17-23 (48-73)
4) 16-25 (64-98)
Admittedly, that's a bit unusual to be that consistent. Or is it?
The Rockies Recent history shows that there is a lot of consistency in quarters. Here are the wins by quarters from 2003-2012
2012--15, 16, 17, 16 --Total 64
2011--22, 17, 17, 17 --Total 73
2010--19, 24, 19, 21-- Total 83
2009--16, 26, 25, 25-- Total 92
2008--15, 17, 21, 21-- Total 74
2007--17, 22, 23, 27-- Total 89* After 162 Games
2006--22, 20, 17, 17-- Total 76
2005--12, 16, 17, 22-- Total 67
2004--17, 15, 22, 14-- Total 68
2003--19, 22, 18, 14-- Total 74
As you can see, in every single season the Rockies have had at least two quarters with total wins within plus or minus 2 wins. In 5 or half the years, the Rockies have had three or more quarters of a similar win total plus or minus 2. In two years, 2006 and 2008, the Rockies had 2 different pairs of quarters, and of course last year all 4 quarters were consistent. Also on a negative note, each season except for 2010 has contained at least one quarter that has 17 or fewer wins.
What does this tell us about 2013? Nothing yet, except that we can expect at least one more quarter that has 20-24 wins, 2 quarters that are below 20 wins within two wins of each other and/or two quarters that have more than 24 wins.
How does that extrapolate to the rest of the season?
Let's say the Rockies have one quarter of 17 wins as history shows. That would give them a total of 38 wins in half a season. For the other two quarters the Rockies would need a total of 43 wins (21, 22?) to be .500. They would need 52 (26, 26?) to get to 90 wins.
But if the Rockies worst quarter was this one, and they get 23, 23, 23 the rest of the way, they will also have 90 wins.
The bad news for the Rockies is they are 8-15 after starting the season 13-4. But overall the results were good for the first quarter.
The Division leaders are the Giants who had 23 wins in their first quarter. And they come to town tonight.
The good news of the first quarter is the Rockies have been better than expected. Last year they were 8-14 on the Road to start the season, and 15-25 overall. The Rockies actually improved slightly over the rest of the season as the first quarter expanded for the entire season would have been 61-101. Last year strangely, they were pretty consistent in each Quarter.
1) 15-25
2) 16-25 (31-50)
3) 17-23 (48-73)
4) 16-25 (64-98)
Admittedly, that's a bit unusual to be that consistent. Or is it?
The Rockies Recent history shows that there is a lot of consistency in quarters. Here are the wins by quarters from 2003-2012
2012--15, 16, 17, 16 --Total 64
2011--22, 17, 17, 17 --Total 73
2010--19, 24, 19, 21-- Total 83
2009--16, 26, 25, 25-- Total 92
2008--15, 17, 21, 21-- Total 74
2007--17, 22, 23, 27-- Total 89* After 162 Games
2006--22, 20, 17, 17-- Total 76
2005--12, 16, 17, 22-- Total 67
2004--17, 15, 22, 14-- Total 68
2003--19, 22, 18, 14-- Total 74
As you can see, in every single season the Rockies have had at least two quarters with total wins within plus or minus 2 wins. In 5 or half the years, the Rockies have had three or more quarters of a similar win total plus or minus 2. In two years, 2006 and 2008, the Rockies had 2 different pairs of quarters, and of course last year all 4 quarters were consistent. Also on a negative note, each season except for 2010 has contained at least one quarter that has 17 or fewer wins.
What does this tell us about 2013? Nothing yet, except that we can expect at least one more quarter that has 20-24 wins, 2 quarters that are below 20 wins within two wins of each other and/or two quarters that have more than 24 wins.
How does that extrapolate to the rest of the season?
Let's say the Rockies have one quarter of 17 wins as history shows. That would give them a total of 38 wins in half a season. For the other two quarters the Rockies would need a total of 43 wins (21, 22?) to be .500. They would need 52 (26, 26?) to get to 90 wins.
But if the Rockies worst quarter was this one, and they get 23, 23, 23 the rest of the way, they will also have 90 wins.
The bad news for the Rockies is they are 8-15 after starting the season 13-4. But overall the results were good for the first quarter.
The Division leaders are the Giants who had 23 wins in their first quarter. And they come to town tonight.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Ankle Breakers
It's always amusing to me when the writers at the only paper left in Denver try writing about baseball. Even the beat writers tend to get caught up in the ups and downs and go on emotions rather than reality.
From reading the paper this weekend you'd think the Rockies won the World Series last year instead of losing 98 games. It's one thing for the fans to think a 13-4 start is going to continue over the entire season, and that a 6-11 skid (now 7-13) is horrible (Gasp!), or (OMG!) the hitting has failed to hit in 3 straight games! Whoa is me! And today's gem from one of the beat writers
From reading the paper this weekend you'd think the Rockies won the World Series last year instead of losing 98 games. It's one thing for the fans to think a 13-4 start is going to continue over the entire season, and that a 6-11 skid (now 7-13) is horrible (Gasp!), or (OMG!) the hitting has failed to hit in 3 straight games! Whoa is me! And today's gem from one of the beat writers
"'That's baseball.' I've heard the quote used ad nauseam in the Rockies' clubhouse over last few days as their slide begins to get serious."
It's enough to make me regret renewing my subscription this week. It's time for the so-called sportswriters there to get serious and get a grip on reality.
1) The Rockies 13-4 start extrapolated to a 123 win season. No team has ever continued on that pace for a season.
2) The Rockies Current record of 20-17 after today's game translates to an 88 win season. If the Rockies win 88 games for this season, it would be a 24 win turnaround from last season, and would probably exceeds these guys expectations at the beginning of the season. Going into Friday's game, the pace was at 90 wins, which would win the division most years.
3) A perfect example of "That's Baseball" is when a team throws two near perfect games against a team and then gets nearly no-hit the 3rd day.
Don't get too emotionally tied to individual wins and losses. The Rockies have a history of going on extended winning runs as well as extended losing streaks. Oh, wait...That's pretty much every team.
More Reality...The Rockies are beating the bad teams and struggling against the good teams. They are currently 6-13 against teams over .500 and 14-4 against teams with losing records. For comparison the Giants are 11-5 against winning teams and 12-10 against losing teams.
More reality...35 of the Rockies first 37 starts have been by 5 pitchers who started the season. Last year they got only 71 starts the entire season from their starting 5. Halfway there.
Even more reality...Despite the recent hitting slump, the Rockies are still 2nd in the league in Runs per Game, and Home Runs; 1st in Batting Average, 3rd in On Base Percentage; and only 9th in Strikeouts.
Why the rising expectations? This team has a chance to get back to respectability. Take emotion out of it. This team is doing well, and still exceeding most expectations. If in August the Rockies still have a winning record, that's the point we should consider upping the expectations to contending and maybe making the playoffs.
One step at a time. Keep it Real.
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