Last night the Rockies completed the first quarter of the season (40 games) with a 21-19 record. That includes an 10-12 record in the 22 games played on the road and 11-7 in the 18 Home games. The good news is that the second quarter will consist of 22 of the next 30 games played at Coors Field. Followed by a 9 game road trip to the East before making up a game with the Mets to finish out the first half of the season. This includes 17 NL West games-- 14 at home, and 3 in San Francisco.
The good news of the first quarter is the Rockies have been better than expected. Last year they were 8-14 on the Road to start the season, and 15-25 overall. The Rockies actually improved slightly over the rest of the season as the first quarter expanded for the entire season would have been 61-101. Last year strangely, they were pretty consistent in each Quarter.
1) 15-25
2) 16-25 (31-50)
3) 17-23 (48-73)
4) 16-25 (64-98)
Admittedly, that's a bit unusual to be that consistent. Or is it?
The Rockies Recent history shows that there is a lot of consistency in quarters. Here are the wins by quarters from 2003-2012
2012--15, 16, 17, 16 --Total 64
2011--22, 17, 17, 17 --Total 73
2010--19, 24, 19, 21-- Total 83
2009--16, 26, 25, 25-- Total 92
2008--15, 17, 21, 21-- Total 74
2007--17, 22, 23, 27-- Total 89* After 162 Games
2006--22, 20, 17, 17-- Total 76
2005--12, 16, 17, 22-- Total 67
2004--17, 15, 22, 14-- Total 68
2003--19, 22, 18, 14-- Total 74
As you can see, in every single season the Rockies have had at least two quarters with total wins within plus or minus 2 wins. In 5 or half the years, the Rockies have had three or more quarters of a similar win total plus or minus 2. In two years, 2006 and 2008, the Rockies had 2 different pairs of quarters, and of course last year all 4 quarters were consistent. Also on a negative note, each season except for 2010 has contained at least one quarter that has 17 or fewer wins.
What does this tell us about 2013? Nothing yet, except that we can expect at least one more quarter that has 20-24 wins, 2 quarters that are below 20 wins within two wins of each other and/or two quarters that have more than 24 wins.
How does that extrapolate to the rest of the season?
Let's say the Rockies have one quarter of 17 wins as history shows. That would give them a total of 38 wins in half a season. For the other two quarters the Rockies would need a total of 43 wins (21, 22?) to be .500. They would need 52 (26, 26?) to get to 90 wins.
But if the Rockies worst quarter was this one, and they get 23, 23, 23 the rest of the way, they will also have 90 wins.
The bad news for the Rockies is they are 8-15 after starting the season 13-4. But overall the results were good for the first quarter.
The Division leaders are the Giants who had 23 wins in their first quarter. And they come to town tonight.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Sunday, May 12, 2013
Ankle Breakers
It's always amusing to me when the writers at the only paper left in Denver try writing about baseball. Even the beat writers tend to get caught up in the ups and downs and go on emotions rather than reality.
From reading the paper this weekend you'd think the Rockies won the World Series last year instead of losing 98 games. It's one thing for the fans to think a 13-4 start is going to continue over the entire season, and that a 6-11 skid (now 7-13) is horrible (Gasp!), or (OMG!) the hitting has failed to hit in 3 straight games! Whoa is me! And today's gem from one of the beat writers
From reading the paper this weekend you'd think the Rockies won the World Series last year instead of losing 98 games. It's one thing for the fans to think a 13-4 start is going to continue over the entire season, and that a 6-11 skid (now 7-13) is horrible (Gasp!), or (OMG!) the hitting has failed to hit in 3 straight games! Whoa is me! And today's gem from one of the beat writers
"'That's baseball.' I've heard the quote used ad nauseam in the Rockies' clubhouse over last few days as their slide begins to get serious."
It's enough to make me regret renewing my subscription this week. It's time for the so-called sportswriters there to get serious and get a grip on reality.
1) The Rockies 13-4 start extrapolated to a 123 win season. No team has ever continued on that pace for a season.
2) The Rockies Current record of 20-17 after today's game translates to an 88 win season. If the Rockies win 88 games for this season, it would be a 24 win turnaround from last season, and would probably exceeds these guys expectations at the beginning of the season. Going into Friday's game, the pace was at 90 wins, which would win the division most years.
3) A perfect example of "That's Baseball" is when a team throws two near perfect games against a team and then gets nearly no-hit the 3rd day.
Don't get too emotionally tied to individual wins and losses. The Rockies have a history of going on extended winning runs as well as extended losing streaks. Oh, wait...That's pretty much every team.
More Reality...The Rockies are beating the bad teams and struggling against the good teams. They are currently 6-13 against teams over .500 and 14-4 against teams with losing records. For comparison the Giants are 11-5 against winning teams and 12-10 against losing teams.
More reality...35 of the Rockies first 37 starts have been by 5 pitchers who started the season. Last year they got only 71 starts the entire season from their starting 5. Halfway there.
Even more reality...Despite the recent hitting slump, the Rockies are still 2nd in the league in Runs per Game, and Home Runs; 1st in Batting Average, 3rd in On Base Percentage; and only 9th in Strikeouts.
Why the rising expectations? This team has a chance to get back to respectability. Take emotion out of it. This team is doing well, and still exceeding most expectations. If in August the Rockies still have a winning record, that's the point we should consider upping the expectations to contending and maybe making the playoffs.
One step at a time. Keep it Real.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Managers Starts
The 2013 Rockies have gotten off to a 13-4 start under Walt Weiss, which is the best start by the Rockies from the beginning of the season, which got me thinking: How good of a start did Jim Tracy have when he took over the team in May, 2009.
Turns out he had an identical 13-4 start. The Rockies were 18-28 on May 28th, when they replaced Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies then won their next 2 before losing the next 4. But then went on an 11 game winning streak before losing their next game and go on a 6 game winning streak. After 17 games under Tracy they were 13-4, after 24 they were 19-5. In his first 30 games he was 22-8 on his way to a 73-42 finish in his first season.
Clint Hurdle also had a decent start when he took over for Buddy Bell on April 26, 2002. His team won 11 of his first 17 games. He would eventually lead them to a 24-10 record (30-26 overall) before a losing streak would bring them back below .500.
Buddy Bell started 2000 with an 8-9 record, after 17 games and 14-16 in his first 30 games. Jim Leyland in his only season in 1999 was 7-10 in his first 17 games with the Rockies and 13-17 in his first 30. And Don Baylor in the Rockies inaugural season of 1993 had the Rockies at 6-11 after 17 games and 12-28 after 30.
Turns out he had an identical 13-4 start. The Rockies were 18-28 on May 28th, when they replaced Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy. The Rockies then won their next 2 before losing the next 4. But then went on an 11 game winning streak before losing their next game and go on a 6 game winning streak. After 17 games under Tracy they were 13-4, after 24 they were 19-5. In his first 30 games he was 22-8 on his way to a 73-42 finish in his first season.
Clint Hurdle also had a decent start when he took over for Buddy Bell on April 26, 2002. His team won 11 of his first 17 games. He would eventually lead them to a 24-10 record (30-26 overall) before a losing streak would bring them back below .500.
Buddy Bell started 2000 with an 8-9 record, after 17 games and 14-16 in his first 30 games. Jim Leyland in his only season in 1999 was 7-10 in his first 17 games with the Rockies and 13-17 in his first 30. And Don Baylor in the Rockies inaugural season of 1993 had the Rockies at 6-11 after 17 games and 12-28 after 30.
Saturday, April 20, 2013
2013 vs. 2011
The Rockies have started off with a bang this year winning a Team record 7 straight home games to start a season, and overall record of 12-4. Just two short years ago, the Rockies got off to a similar start going 17-8 in April. On April 22nd of that year I stated:
At that time their fielding was carrying them (of course, that's also dependent on pitching). A couple weeks later, the bubble would burst and the Rockies would go 56-81 after May 1st and 64-98 in 2012 (a combined 121-179 in Jim Tracy's last 300 games.)
This year feels different. Obviously everything is clicking at once, good pitching, good hitting and good fielding, and there will come a point in the season that one of those will have to pick up the others. But this year the entire lineup is contributing, the starting pitching is going longer in games, which makes the bullpen stronger, and the players are also making great plays.
And ultimately this team may not even contend. The toll of 162 games certainly has it's ups and downs, but the makeup of this team seems to be fun to watch.
And for now we can ride the wave....
It probably sounds absurd to say that a team that is 13-5, needs to play better, but it really feels that way with the Rockies. But then looking at the stats, it seems like they are playing well, it just doesn't feel like it. They are 2nd in the league in runs scored per game, at 5.50 rpg. They are 9th in the league in Average, but 3rd in OBP. It also seems like they are striking out less often, but in reality, their K's per game are slightly higher than last year. And with all the talk of Dexter Fowler's improvement, he leads the team in strikeouts with 22. That's way too many for a leadoff hitter.
The pitching has not been too bad, but it's only average in League terms. ERA is 9th in the league at 3.74. Strikeouts are 12th, Walks are 8th. They are 1st in Wild Pitches.
I point this out not to disparage the team as a half-empty perspective but actually to look at it from a half-full perspective. The wins have depended a lot on their defense and league leading Double Plays. But the 13-5 record including 7 straight wins, has not been because of any kind of solid roll, but because key things happen in each game.
When the Rockies put their hitting and or pitching together consistently with the fielding, this team could go on a serious winning streak.
At that time their fielding was carrying them (of course, that's also dependent on pitching). A couple weeks later, the bubble would burst and the Rockies would go 56-81 after May 1st and 64-98 in 2012 (a combined 121-179 in Jim Tracy's last 300 games.)
This year feels different. Obviously everything is clicking at once, good pitching, good hitting and good fielding, and there will come a point in the season that one of those will have to pick up the others. But this year the entire lineup is contributing, the starting pitching is going longer in games, which makes the bullpen stronger, and the players are also making great plays.
And ultimately this team may not even contend. The toll of 162 games certainly has it's ups and downs, but the makeup of this team seems to be fun to watch.
And for now we can ride the wave....
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
This Day in Rockies History April 9, 1993
For the first time MLB comes to Denver as 80,227 pack Mile High Stadium. The Rockies after an 0-2 start in New York, reward the crowd scoring 4 in the first inning including a lead-off home run by Eric Young against the Montreal Expos. The Rockies would add 7 more runs over the next 6 innings. Bryn Smith the Rockies starter pitched 7 scoreless innings. The Expos would score 4 runs in the 9th innings, but the Rockies win the game 11-4, to kick off a successful Inaugural Season in Denver.
Monday, April 8, 2013
This Day in History April 8
The Rockies have a 7-10 record on April 8th over the years, but have played extra innings in 4 of them--all of them losses and all of them within the past 10 years.
2003--St. Louis beat the Rockies at Coors Field 15-12 in 13 innings on a 3 Run homer by Mike Matheny.
2004--The Rockies lose in Arizona 6-5 in 11 Innings. Richie Sexson hit a two run walk-off homer after Tyler Greene hit a solo shot in the top of the 11th.
2007--The Padres defeat the Rockies 2-1 at Petco with a Kevin Kouzmanoff single knocking in Khalil Greene after Greene had tripled. (157 games later the Rockies would get payback in extra innings).
2011--Pirates beat the Rockies in the 14th as Jose Tabata knocks in Josh Rodriguez with a wallk off double.
2003--St. Louis beat the Rockies at Coors Field 15-12 in 13 innings on a 3 Run homer by Mike Matheny.
2004--The Rockies lose in Arizona 6-5 in 11 Innings. Richie Sexson hit a two run walk-off homer after Tyler Greene hit a solo shot in the top of the 11th.
2007--The Padres defeat the Rockies 2-1 at Petco with a Kevin Kouzmanoff single knocking in Khalil Greene after Greene had tripled. (157 games later the Rockies would get payback in extra innings).
2011--Pirates beat the Rockies in the 14th as Jose Tabata knocks in Josh Rodriguez with a wallk off double.
Running on All Cylinders
There are three differences between the first week of the 2013 season compared to the first week of the 2012 season for the Rockies:
1. They Hit
2. They Pitch
3. They Field
2012's slow start which became a season long issue was trying to get Hitting, Pitching and Fielding lined up at the same time. The Rockies have scored 39 runs in the first 6 games of 2013 ranging from 4-9 in each game. In 2012, they had scored 29 runs, but 17 of them were in one game. The other 5 games were, 5, 3, 2, 0, 2. Pitching gave up 32 runs in 2012, compared to 18 this year. And in Fielding the Rockies have committed only 3 errors in the first 6 games this year, while having 3 alone in Game 2 in 2012, and 8 total after 6.
Sure it's a great start and the Rockies are exuding a lot more confidence than when we last saw them last October, and why not. .333 Batting (.353 on the road!) ; 13 HR's 7 Doubles. 2.80 ERA, 2.2 K's to Walks ratio, 3 HR's allowed. Fielding 3 errors .988 pct, and only 1 unearned run given up.
There will be ups and downs throughout the season, but the first week will be the benchmark to strive for.
Aces Low--It really seemed strange to watch the scores yesterday as numerous #1 Starters took to the mound and were slammed in their second starts:
Matt Cain--3 2/3 IP 22.091 ERA
David Price--5 IP 14.4 ERA
Cole Hamels--5 2/3 IP 12.706 ERA
Jered Weaver--5 IP 9.000 ERA
Stephen Strasburg--5 1/3 IP 10.125 ERA
Meanwhile Jhoulys Chacin pitched at Coors Field and gave up one run in 6 2/3 innings.
Goose Eggs in Frisco: As if playing at AT&T Park wasn't daunting enough for the Rockies, the 3 Giants pitchers Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Zito that the Rox will face this week have a COMBINED 0.00 ERA although there were 2 unearned runs in there. Maybe all of them will turn into Matt Cain this week.
Rockies Dingers: The Rockies have a 5 game winning streak which matches their longest in 2012 which happened twice. In the 2011 the Rockies longest winning streak was 7 which also happened near the beginning of the season 4/9 to 4/15...5 Rockies have hit home runs with Dexter Fowler leading with 4. Wilin Rosario has 3 and Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki each have 2.
1. They Hit
2. They Pitch
3. They Field
2012's slow start which became a season long issue was trying to get Hitting, Pitching and Fielding lined up at the same time. The Rockies have scored 39 runs in the first 6 games of 2013 ranging from 4-9 in each game. In 2012, they had scored 29 runs, but 17 of them were in one game. The other 5 games were, 5, 3, 2, 0, 2. Pitching gave up 32 runs in 2012, compared to 18 this year. And in Fielding the Rockies have committed only 3 errors in the first 6 games this year, while having 3 alone in Game 2 in 2012, and 8 total after 6.
Sure it's a great start and the Rockies are exuding a lot more confidence than when we last saw them last October, and why not. .333 Batting (.353 on the road!) ; 13 HR's 7 Doubles. 2.80 ERA, 2.2 K's to Walks ratio, 3 HR's allowed. Fielding 3 errors .988 pct, and only 1 unearned run given up.
There will be ups and downs throughout the season, but the first week will be the benchmark to strive for.
Aces Low--It really seemed strange to watch the scores yesterday as numerous #1 Starters took to the mound and were slammed in their second starts:
Matt Cain--3 2/3 IP 22.091 ERA
David Price--5 IP 14.4 ERA
Cole Hamels--5 2/3 IP 12.706 ERA
Jered Weaver--5 IP 9.000 ERA
Stephen Strasburg--5 1/3 IP 10.125 ERA
Meanwhile Jhoulys Chacin pitched at Coors Field and gave up one run in 6 2/3 innings.
Goose Eggs in Frisco: As if playing at AT&T Park wasn't daunting enough for the Rockies, the 3 Giants pitchers Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Zito that the Rox will face this week have a COMBINED 0.00 ERA although there were 2 unearned runs in there. Maybe all of them will turn into Matt Cain this week.
Rockies Dingers: The Rockies have a 5 game winning streak which matches their longest in 2012 which happened twice. In the 2011 the Rockies longest winning streak was 7 which also happened near the beginning of the season 4/9 to 4/15...5 Rockies have hit home runs with Dexter Fowler leading with 4. Wilin Rosario has 3 and Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki each have 2.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
This Day In Rockies History April 7, 1997
In the Rockies Home Opener for 1997, the Rockies returning from a 4-2 opening road trip and pounced on the Cincinnati Reds and Dave Burba 13-2. The Blake Street Bombers scored 5 runs in both the 1st and 4th innings to put the game out of reach.
This game was also my first game at Coors Field as I flew in that morning to make the game. The following day I had a Job interview in Denver, and within a month I had moved to Colorado and started working here. I remember it was a beautiful sunny day in the 50's. It was also my first MLB game since 1992 and revived my interest in MLB after the strike of 1994-95.
This game was also my first game at Coors Field as I flew in that morning to make the game. The following day I had a Job interview in Denver, and within a month I had moved to Colorado and started working here. I remember it was a beautiful sunny day in the 50's. It was also my first MLB game since 1992 and revived my interest in MLB after the strike of 1994-95.
Friday, April 5, 2013
This Day in Rockies History April 5, 1993
History has a start and this April 5, 1993 is the official start of the History of the Colorado Rockies.
In New York's Shea Stadium, the Rockies took the field for the first time for a Regular Season game. Eric Young led off the game, and David Nied was the starter. The Rockies only got 4 hits but no runs and lost to the Mets 3-0. They would score their first run on Dante Bichette's HR (first in Rockies History) in their 2nd game but only get one other hit, before finally arriving in Denver for their Home opener.
In New York's Shea Stadium, the Rockies took the field for the first time for a Regular Season game. Eric Young led off the game, and David Nied was the starter. The Rockies only got 4 hits but no runs and lost to the Mets 3-0. They would score their first run on Dante Bichette's HR (first in Rockies History) in their 2nd game but only get one other hit, before finally arriving in Denver for their Home opener.
Opening Day at Home
After a successful road series the Rockies open at home for the 21st time and 19th at Coors Field.
Spirits are high after taking two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee. A team batting average of .353 ON THE ROAD and a Team ERA at 3.90. 41 hits 8 Homers's but only 2 Doubles. 19 runs. The only pitching disappointments was Jorge De La Rosa's 4 1/3 inning outing on Tuesday, giving up 4 runs, and Wilton Lopez' Rockies debut on Monday giving up 3 runs in one inning. The Rockies as a team only gave up 7 walks in 3 games.
After 20 years of watching the Rockies, you realize they must show more consistency on the road. Next week they head to two Pitchers parks in San Francisco and San Diego. No one expects them to hit .353 in either place but the key will be getting base hits and moving runners. More doubles will help, but it's a good start.
Now to Coors Field. Play BALL!
Spirits are high after taking two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee. A team batting average of .353 ON THE ROAD and a Team ERA at 3.90. 41 hits 8 Homers's but only 2 Doubles. 19 runs. The only pitching disappointments was Jorge De La Rosa's 4 1/3 inning outing on Tuesday, giving up 4 runs, and Wilton Lopez' Rockies debut on Monday giving up 3 runs in one inning. The Rockies as a team only gave up 7 walks in 3 games.
After 20 years of watching the Rockies, you realize they must show more consistency on the road. Next week they head to two Pitchers parks in San Francisco and San Diego. No one expects them to hit .353 in either place but the key will be getting base hits and moving runners. More doubles will help, but it's a good start.
Now to Coors Field. Play BALL!
Monday, April 1, 2013
Opening Day 2013
Baseball is back and so are the Rockies.
Personnel-wise the team has not changed much. New Manager Walt Weiss and new hitting coach Dante Bichette brings back history as they make their coaching debut, with much of the same team that lost a team record 98 games last year.
So why should there be optimism? In two words Health and Experience.
A lot of kids like Pacheco, Rosario, and Rutledge got major experience last season due to key injuries to Tulowitzki, Helton, Hernandez, and Cuddyer among others.
Tulo of course needs to stay healthy for the entire year to give the Rockies a chance.
And then there is the age old problem--pitching. The Rockies had to work with a makeshift rotation after their entire rotation went down for one reason or another. Guthrie, Chacin, Moyer, Nicasio, and Pomeranz were the initial starting rotation last year. Moyer was released, Guthrie first hurt then traded. Chacin and Nicasio hurt, and Pomeranz wasn't quite ready. By June the Rockies had reaquired Jeff Francis and was using a makeshift piggyback system, that wasn't quite successful, because the pitchers couldn't throw strikes and keep the pitch counts down.
Chacin had a rough spring, Francis is back, De La Rosa and Nicasio are making comebacks. The fifth starter is Journeyman Jon Garland, who most recently was with the Dodgers in 2011. Chris Volstad is another starter acquired over the winter waits in the Bullpen if one of the five falter.
But for now the Rockies are 0-0. Play Ball!
Personnel-wise the team has not changed much. New Manager Walt Weiss and new hitting coach Dante Bichette brings back history as they make their coaching debut, with much of the same team that lost a team record 98 games last year.
So why should there be optimism? In two words Health and Experience.
A lot of kids like Pacheco, Rosario, and Rutledge got major experience last season due to key injuries to Tulowitzki, Helton, Hernandez, and Cuddyer among others.
Tulo of course needs to stay healthy for the entire year to give the Rockies a chance.
And then there is the age old problem--pitching. The Rockies had to work with a makeshift rotation after their entire rotation went down for one reason or another. Guthrie, Chacin, Moyer, Nicasio, and Pomeranz were the initial starting rotation last year. Moyer was released, Guthrie first hurt then traded. Chacin and Nicasio hurt, and Pomeranz wasn't quite ready. By June the Rockies had reaquired Jeff Francis and was using a makeshift piggyback system, that wasn't quite successful, because the pitchers couldn't throw strikes and keep the pitch counts down.
Chacin had a rough spring, Francis is back, De La Rosa and Nicasio are making comebacks. The fifth starter is Journeyman Jon Garland, who most recently was with the Dodgers in 2011. Chris Volstad is another starter acquired over the winter waits in the Bullpen if one of the five falter.
But for now the Rockies are 0-0. Play Ball!
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Jim Tracy Resigns as Rockies Manager
Jim Tracy resigned today as the Rockies Manager after nearly 4 years at the helm. He compiled a 294-308 record with the Rockies and led them to their best record of 92-70 in 2009 and their worst record at 64-98 this season.
I have pondered the status of Tracy for most of the 2nd half of the year, and still could not conclude whether he deserved to stay or needed to go. It's difficult to say what type of skipper the Rockies need someone who can motivate them in thier longer slumps than either Clint Hurdle or Jim Tracy had done over the past several years.
I thank Jim Tracy for his service to the Rockies and wish him well. He certainly deserves another managing opportunity in the future.
I have pondered the status of Tracy for most of the 2nd half of the year, and still could not conclude whether he deserved to stay or needed to go. It's difficult to say what type of skipper the Rockies need someone who can motivate them in thier longer slumps than either Clint Hurdle or Jim Tracy had done over the past several years.
I thank Jim Tracy for his service to the Rockies and wish him well. He certainly deserves another managing opportunity in the future.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
MLB Whiffs with 2013 Schedule
First of all, I'd like to give the Rockies some credit: Within a day of the release of the 2013 schedule in mid-September, they had a printable schedule ready. I haven't seen any other team release a printable schedule yet.
In 2011, MLB announced that starting in 2013 the National League and the American League would both have 15 teams, and that the Houston Astros would balance the leagues by moving to the AL West from the NL Central. The mathematically inclined thought that this would lead to a balanced schedule in the following way:
1. All teams would now have 4 divisional Opponents. Scheduling 18 games with each division opponent (9 home and 9 Away would give each team 72 games.)
2. There would be 10 League opponents outside of their division. They could play each one of them 6 times (3 Home and 3 Away) and would provide each team with an additional 60 games.
3. That would leave 30 InterLeague games. They could play one division in the other league home and home 3 games each, or two of the divisions 3 games each to reach the 30 games.
But this posed several problems for MLB.
1. MLB did not want 30 interleague games per team, they would prefer to have 18-20.
2. "Natural" rivalries would have to be abandoned. Never mind the fact that there are really only about 5 "Natural" rivalries, the fact that the Yankees were involved in one of them, superseded all sense of balance for the other 29 teams.
3. There weren't enough 4 game series to schedule consecutive playing days without also having a bunch of 2 game series, which the teams don't like.
All right fine. Let's give them their Natural rivalries. Let each division play another division in the other league 3 games (Home or Away) giving each team 15 interleague games. No wait that won't work, so each team plays 4 of the 5 teams 3 times and one team they play home and home in 2 games. Next year NL West plays AL East, NL East Plays AL Central and NL Central Plays AL West.
It also leaves A home and home series for the natural rivals played on consecutive days 2 home and 2 away. And these 4 game series will all start on Memorial Day.
Okay fine, that still leaves 72 division games and 70 other games in the league which means all the non-Division opponents can play each other 7 times. Great!
Except that didn't happen either and this is where MLB blew it. They instead increased division games to 19 per opponent for a total of 76 games. Then each team will play a random combination of 6 of the other teams 7 times and the other 4 only 6 times. For the Rockies they will play everyone in the NL East 7 times and everyone in the NL Central other than the St. Louis Cardinals 6 times. For Arizona it's the NL Central and one team from the East 7 times. For the other 3 NL West teams, it's a mix of 6 teams from both divisions.
The Rockies will open 2013 in Milwaukee, and then come home for 3 with San Diego before going to the West coast in San Francisco and San Diego. Their first interleague games are May 3-5 at home against Tampa Bay. Their "Natural" rival is the Houston Astros (Arizona got Texas). MLB has all of the natural rivals playing each other in home and home series of 4 games from Memorial Day through May 30th.
So here are the Natural City Rivals:
1. Yankees/Mets
2. Angels/Dodgers
3. A's/Giants
4. White Sox/Cubs
5. Orioles/Nationals
Here are the Natural State Rivals:
6. Indians/Reds
7. Royals/Cardinals
8. Rays/Marlins
9. Rangers/Astros (oops!)
Here are the odd men out.
9. Mariners/Padres
10. Twins/Brewers
11. Red Sox/Phillies
12. Tigers/Pirates
13. Blue Jays/Braves
14. Rangers/D-Backs
15. Astros/Rockies
In 2013 the Rockies Tough month will be August where they have 11 home games and 17 Road Games. Starting July 29th they play 20 of 26 on the Road. They do have a stretch from May 16th to June 16th where they have 22 of 29 at home.
A strong start in April and May will certainly help the Rockies be competitive, but from Father's Day to Labor Day things could get brutal. They will have 5 consecutive 3 city Road Trips starting on June 17th and going through September 15th. During this stretch they will play 48 road games and only 31 Home games. Also during that stretch they will play no games in the Central Time Zone. Three of the trips will be eastern time zone trips, while the other two trips are divisional West Coast trips. In fact they only have 11 central time zone games, and play all of them in April and May.
For the next few months the Rockies will shape the Roster for next year. The schedule although better next year, again seems to be put together with leftovers from the big market teams.
In 2011, MLB announced that starting in 2013 the National League and the American League would both have 15 teams, and that the Houston Astros would balance the leagues by moving to the AL West from the NL Central. The mathematically inclined thought that this would lead to a balanced schedule in the following way:
1. All teams would now have 4 divisional Opponents. Scheduling 18 games with each division opponent (9 home and 9 Away would give each team 72 games.)
2. There would be 10 League opponents outside of their division. They could play each one of them 6 times (3 Home and 3 Away) and would provide each team with an additional 60 games.
3. That would leave 30 InterLeague games. They could play one division in the other league home and home 3 games each, or two of the divisions 3 games each to reach the 30 games.
But this posed several problems for MLB.
1. MLB did not want 30 interleague games per team, they would prefer to have 18-20.
2. "Natural" rivalries would have to be abandoned. Never mind the fact that there are really only about 5 "Natural" rivalries, the fact that the Yankees were involved in one of them, superseded all sense of balance for the other 29 teams.
3. There weren't enough 4 game series to schedule consecutive playing days without also having a bunch of 2 game series, which the teams don't like.
All right fine. Let's give them their Natural rivalries. Let each division play another division in the other league 3 games (Home or Away) giving each team 15 interleague games. No wait that won't work, so each team plays 4 of the 5 teams 3 times and one team they play home and home in 2 games. Next year NL West plays AL East, NL East Plays AL Central and NL Central Plays AL West.
It also leaves A home and home series for the natural rivals played on consecutive days 2 home and 2 away. And these 4 game series will all start on Memorial Day.
Okay fine, that still leaves 72 division games and 70 other games in the league which means all the non-Division opponents can play each other 7 times. Great!
Except that didn't happen either and this is where MLB blew it. They instead increased division games to 19 per opponent for a total of 76 games. Then each team will play a random combination of 6 of the other teams 7 times and the other 4 only 6 times. For the Rockies they will play everyone in the NL East 7 times and everyone in the NL Central other than the St. Louis Cardinals 6 times. For Arizona it's the NL Central and one team from the East 7 times. For the other 3 NL West teams, it's a mix of 6 teams from both divisions.
The Rockies will open 2013 in Milwaukee, and then come home for 3 with San Diego before going to the West coast in San Francisco and San Diego. Their first interleague games are May 3-5 at home against Tampa Bay. Their "Natural" rival is the Houston Astros (Arizona got Texas). MLB has all of the natural rivals playing each other in home and home series of 4 games from Memorial Day through May 30th.
So here are the Natural City Rivals:
1. Yankees/Mets
2. Angels/Dodgers
3. A's/Giants
4. White Sox/Cubs
5. Orioles/Nationals
Here are the Natural State Rivals:
6. Indians/Reds
7. Royals/Cardinals
8. Rays/Marlins
Here are the odd men out.
9. Mariners/Padres
10. Twins/Brewers
11. Red Sox/Phillies
12. Tigers/Pirates
13. Blue Jays/Braves
14. Rangers/D-Backs
15. Astros/Rockies
In 2013 the Rockies Tough month will be August where they have 11 home games and 17 Road Games. Starting July 29th they play 20 of 26 on the Road. They do have a stretch from May 16th to June 16th where they have 22 of 29 at home.
A strong start in April and May will certainly help the Rockies be competitive, but from Father's Day to Labor Day things could get brutal. They will have 5 consecutive 3 city Road Trips starting on June 17th and going through September 15th. During this stretch they will play 48 road games and only 31 Home games. Also during that stretch they will play no games in the Central Time Zone. Three of the trips will be eastern time zone trips, while the other two trips are divisional West Coast trips. In fact they only have 11 central time zone games, and play all of them in April and May.
For the next few months the Rockies will shape the Roster for next year. The schedule although better next year, again seems to be put together with leftovers from the big market teams.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
The 2013 Rockies--Pitchers
Earlier we discussed the hitting. Today we discuss the Pitching.
The big 2012 experiment was the 4 man rotation with the 3 man piggyback. By mid-June the Rockies really had a problem early with their injuries and lack of experience.
Let's go back about 6 months and look at the initial Rockies Rotation:
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jamie Moyer
3. Juan Nicasio
4. Jhoulys Chacin
5. Drew Pomerantz
Of those 5 Pomerantz had the most starts (21) followed by Guthries' 15. Chacin will end up with 14, Nicasio 11and Moyer 10. That only covered 71 games.
In all, the Rockies have had 14 different starters this season with 9 of them starting 10 or more games. The team leader in starts is familiar but didn't even arrive until June--Jeff Francis. He will end up with 24 starts.
It also needs to be noted that the Rockies used a 4 man rotation with a 75 pitch limit for much of the latter 2/3rds of the season.
For 2013 the Rockies have announced that they will move back to a 5 man rotation with a higher pitch count, but retain the piggyback system keeping 3 long relievers. In order for it to work several of the starters must consistently get to the 6th and 7th innings on the 90-100 Pitches. Many of them failed to get through 4 on 75.
Guthrie and Moyer are no longer around, but the Rockies still have a number of pitchers to choose their 8 starters/piggybacks from before all the winter moves.
Here are my candidates for the Starters:
1. De La Rosa (L)
2. Chacin (R)
3. Nicasio (R)
4. Francis (L)
5. Friedrich (L) or Chatwood (R)
And for Piggybacks:
1. Outman
2. Moscoso
3. Ottavino
This still leaves lots of other possibilities when injuries ineffectiveness strikes:
Pomerantz
White
Torres
Sanchez
It also frees up Roenicke to be in the finishing bullpen, along with Belisle, Brothers, Reynolds, Harris and Betancourt.
If anything the Rockies disastrous season gave a lot of young pitchers a lot more experience. They need to come out in 2013 in good shape and better throwing.
The big 2012 experiment was the 4 man rotation with the 3 man piggyback. By mid-June the Rockies really had a problem early with their injuries and lack of experience.
Let's go back about 6 months and look at the initial Rockies Rotation:
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jamie Moyer
3. Juan Nicasio
4. Jhoulys Chacin
5. Drew Pomerantz
Of those 5 Pomerantz had the most starts (21) followed by Guthries' 15. Chacin will end up with 14, Nicasio 11and Moyer 10. That only covered 71 games.
In all, the Rockies have had 14 different starters this season with 9 of them starting 10 or more games. The team leader in starts is familiar but didn't even arrive until June--Jeff Francis. He will end up with 24 starts.
It also needs to be noted that the Rockies used a 4 man rotation with a 75 pitch limit for much of the latter 2/3rds of the season.
For 2013 the Rockies have announced that they will move back to a 5 man rotation with a higher pitch count, but retain the piggyback system keeping 3 long relievers. In order for it to work several of the starters must consistently get to the 6th and 7th innings on the 90-100 Pitches. Many of them failed to get through 4 on 75.
Guthrie and Moyer are no longer around, but the Rockies still have a number of pitchers to choose their 8 starters/piggybacks from before all the winter moves.
Here are my candidates for the Starters:
1. De La Rosa (L)
2. Chacin (R)
3. Nicasio (R)
4. Francis (L)
5. Friedrich (L) or Chatwood (R)
And for Piggybacks:
1. Outman
2. Moscoso
3. Ottavino
This still leaves lots of other possibilities when injuries ineffectiveness strikes:
Pomerantz
White
Torres
Sanchez
It also frees up Roenicke to be in the finishing bullpen, along with Belisle, Brothers, Reynolds, Harris and Betancourt.
If anything the Rockies disastrous season gave a lot of young pitchers a lot more experience. They need to come out in 2013 in good shape and better throwing.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
The 2013 Rockies--Hitters
I'll be giving you an analysis of the 2013 Rockies Schedule, but I've also been giving a lot of thought to the Rockies lineup next year. It's likely the Rockies will avoid a 100 loss season, but will also have the worst season in the 20 year history of Major League Baseball in Colorado.
The Rockies made many moves last winter, somewhere above 20, and while many didn't pan out, there are still some things to look forward to in 2013.
The starting Lineup going into the winter appears to be the following certainties:
Rosario C
Helton 1B (Pending Return)
Rutledge 2B
Tulowitzki SS
Nelson/Pacheco 3B*
Gonzalez LF
Fowler CF
Cuddyer RF
*Assuming Todd Helton returns it's likely Pacheco and Nelson will platoon at 3B. If Helton Does not return then Pacheco will probably play 1B and Nelson 3B.
The advantage of having so many injuries and a horrible record is that we've got a good look at some of the future players, as well as the backups:
Certain to be considered:
Herrera
Colvin
DeMahieu
Young
Colvin
In addition these players have not shied away from the opportunity:
Blackmon
Brown
McBride
My guess is that Hernandez and Giambi will not return although Hernandez is signed for 2013. I think the Rockies need to commit to Rosario as the Starting Catcher.
The Rockies made many moves last winter, somewhere above 20, and while many didn't pan out, there are still some things to look forward to in 2013.
The starting Lineup going into the winter appears to be the following certainties:
Rosario C
Helton 1B (Pending Return)
Rutledge 2B
Tulowitzki SS
Nelson/Pacheco 3B*
Gonzalez LF
Fowler CF
Cuddyer RF
*Assuming Todd Helton returns it's likely Pacheco and Nelson will platoon at 3B. If Helton Does not return then Pacheco will probably play 1B and Nelson 3B.
The advantage of having so many injuries and a horrible record is that we've got a good look at some of the future players, as well as the backups:
Certain to be considered:
Herrera
Colvin
DeMahieu
Young
Colvin
In addition these players have not shied away from the opportunity:
Blackmon
Brown
McBride
My guess is that Hernandez and Giambi will not return although Hernandez is signed for 2013. I think the Rockies need to commit to Rosario as the Starting Catcher.
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