The Collapse

You've heard it before, "all teams get injuries", "injuries are no excuse".   This year the Rockies have had injuries to too many key players to really contend.  From last night's game notes:




After last night's activation of Carlos Gonzalez, that still leaves 8 players on the DL, 7 of them pitchers.  Brett Anderson will come back tomorrow, but the damage is already done.

The Rockies never have deep starting pitching and this year so far have used 13 different starting pitchers.  Their projected 5 Starters at the beginning of the season (De La Rosa, Anderson, Chacin, Lyles, and Nicasio) have started a total of 59 of 93 games and De La Rosa has 19 of them.  Chacin is done for the season most likely, Nicasio struggled without being hurt and is back in the minors. 

For much of the year up until yesterday, there have been at least two of the starting 8 on the DL as well.  Cuddyer is the only starting fielder who is still on the DL and has missed 56 games so far on two stints.  Arenado missed 37 games, Gonzalez 35 and Rosario 12, although he has had other minor injuries that have not landed him on the DL in June and July.  Fortuately, the Rockies have adequate backup in the Outfield to make up for Cuddyer's and Gonzalez's loss, but the lack of infield depth hurt. 

I think Nolan Arenado's injury was the biggest blow, because try as they may with several players, there was no adequate fielding backup to Arenado, and outs that he could have made became hits and taxed the pitching even more. 

But in the end, the pitching wore down quickly which affected the bullpen, (which was less than effective to begin with) overworking many of them.  

With the upcoming break it may bring some relief, to recharge and start over.  Winning the division is out of the question, but getting back to .500 and respectability is a noble goal for 2014.   Getting the pitchers healthy will go a long way to achieving it.

But will they come through?

Hope is on the Way!

Strikeouts, low RISP, bad fielding, and some awful pitching led to a disaster in May after May 7th.  And for the 22nd year in a row the Rockies failed to have a winning record in both April and May in the same season.

Ever the optimist, I can honestly say I predicted the last few weeks would be tough.   Sure it could be better but the 6-14 slide that has happened over the last 3.5 weeks was the right timing.  Just before that the Rockies had put together a 14-5 stretch scoring 7 or more runs 11 times.  They were bound to cool off and the road beckoned to help aid it.

28-28 is not great, but it's not horrible either.  Two of the longest road trips are done, with none of their future road trips going to more than two cities.   And yes, they will have to win more than 36% of their road games the rest of the way to compete in the West or Wild Card.

Their Road/Home imbalance is currently 33-23 (with one suspended home game) which means they have 10 games to bring them back to even and they just so happen to have a 10 game road trip coming up starting tomorrow.  They also have only 12 more games in the Eastern Time Zone the rest of the season where they are  currently 4-12 (Other time Zones, Mountain 16-7, Pacific 7-6, and Central 1-3)

The next 48 games bring 32 games to Coors Field vs. 16 on the Road.  This includes two 10-game home stands.  It's time to right the ship and start building toward a race down the stretch.   If the Rockies continue to stumble through this stretch then game over.

At the Quarter Pole

Normally during the first couple months of the season, there are plenty of scheduled off days and rainouts which makes it sometimes slow going in the beginning.  This year, the Rockies were given two scheduled off days, and I don't believe they even have had a rain delay yet, and have completed 40 games in 42 games.  They now get rewarded by having 5 off days in the next 22, before playing 36 in 37 days into early July before getting one more off day before having a 3 game series followed by the All-Star Break.

Given all that and the injuries to 3 Starting Pitchers and 2 everyday players, the Rockies have weathered the first storm by going 23-17 matching the best ever first quarter tying the records of 1995 and 1997.

The Rockies are holding their own on the road (10-12), and exploding at home (13-5).  The most impressive stat I have is that the Rockies pitching has held their opponents to 4 or less runs in 24 of the first 40 games and have won 20 of those games.  This includes losing 2 such games over the weekend.   On the other hand they have scored 5 or more runs 22 times and have won 18 of those games.  

Tonight they start the 2nd quarter and although a slump is coming at some point, how they weather that will determine how they do in the 2nd half.

The Long Road Begins

The Rockies finished a successful home stand tonight and are headed on the road for the first of two consecutive 3 city Road trips.   Overall the Rockies will play the next 16 of 22 on the Road.  There is plenty of reason to believe the Rockies will slog through the rest of the month, but there are some good signs as well.

Minuses:  The Rockies traditionally don't do well on the road especially in the Eastern Time Zone.   And the Rockies are going to play 12 of the 16 road games in the East.  The Rockies have also been exceedingly hot hitting lately with 5 of their six game homestand scoring 7 or more runs.  Tulo, Arenado, Blackmon, Morneau are all bound to cool off at some point, if they all do it at the same time then it could mean some losses.

Pluses:  The Rockies have surged while encountering injuries to Cuddyer, Rosario, Chatwood and Anderson.  The Rockies have also had 20 games (12 at home) where they held the opponent to 4 runs or less and are 18-2 in those games (12-0 at home).  In fact the Rockies pitching have only given up more than 5 runs only 7 times in the first 34 games.

Two weeks ago, when the Rockies embarked on the current 22 of 34 on the road, they were 12-11.  I felt if they could tread water and get out of May at .500 they would be in good shape.  Now with over a third of those games over and the Rockies coming through with a 9-3 record, if they can play .500 from this point forward through June 1st, they would be 31-24.

But the Rockies should enjoy the ride and keep the magic.

Thoughts after Four Weeks

After 4 weeks the Rockies are 14-12 a year ago they were 15-10 after 4 weeks.  Comparable starts between the two years.  Last year the Rockies would get to 19-13 and eventually 27-21 before falling the rest of the season.

There are a lot of ups and downs throughout the season.  Lots of things happen during the season, but you need to get your footing and be consistent over time.

After roughly one month the Rockies have had some really bad outings as well as some really spectacular wins.  They have 5 wins already when scoring 1, 2, or 3 runs.   They have also lost 2 games when scoring 9 or more runs.

This afternoon they won their first road series and gained their first Sunday Win of the season.

I had to stretch to get this streak, but the Rockies this weekend started a stretch in which they will play 22 of 34 on the road through June 1st.   Ideally they need to go no worse than 17-17 during this stretch and possibly have a winning record over that stretch.  This stretch includes the only 2 3 city road trips the Rockies have all year, and one of them is only 8 days long.  Following that stretch the Rockies play 32 of 48 at home.  

The Rockies also are getting great production off of their bench and in the bullpen.  Brandon Barnes has stepped in during Michael Cuddyer's injury and has been great at the plate filling in.   Adam Ottavino has been lights out so far.

All in all, the Rockies are in a decent position and have held their own against the NL West so far.  Currently 1.5 games behind the Giants and tied for 2nd place.

Let's review in 5 weeks.