The Rest of tge Way

On June 28th the Rockies hit the halfway point of the season and were 39-42 in 4th place in the NL West trailing the Division Leading D-Backs by 8 games, Dodgers by 5.5 games and Giants by 3.5 games

Starting on June 28th, when the Rockies played a series finale against the Giants pulling out a 9-8 victory in the 9th inning.  This was their first win after trailing in after 8th, previously going 0-37.  Since then they have gone 5-11 when trailing after the 8th and 33-16 overall.

More importantly they have entirely erased the 8 game deficit to the D-Backs and are currently tied for 1st in NL West.

So now what?  The Rockies and D-Backs play 7 games starting in two weeks on September 10th through September 23rd.  The Rockies and Dodgers have 6 left against each other and the D-Backs and Dodgers play 7 more starting this weekend in Dodger Stadium.

Here is the Comparative Schedule for the D-Backs, Rockies and Dodgers for the rest of the season:

		-1		0		-2.5
Date		Rockies		D-Backs		Dodgers
27-Aug		@LAA		@SF		Off
28-Aug		@LAA		@SF		@Tex
29-Aug		Off		@SF		@Tex
30-Aug		@SD		@LAD		Ariz
31-Aug		@SD		@LAD		Ariz
1-Sep		@SD		@LAD		Ariz
2-Sep		@SD		@LAD		Ariz
3-Sep		SF		SD		NYM
4-Sep		SF		SD		NYM
5-Sep		SF		Off		NYM
6-Sep		Off		Atl		Off
7-Sep		LAD		Atl		@Col
8-Sep		LAD		Atl		@Col
9-Sep		LAD		Atl		@Col
10-Sep		Ariz		@Col		@Cinc
11-Sep		Ariz		@Col		@Cinc
12-Sep		Ariz		@Col		@Cinc
13-Sep		Ariz		@Col		@STL
14-Sep		@SF		@Hous		@STL
15-Sep		@SF		@Hous		@STL
16-Sep		@SF		@Hous		@STL
17-Sep		@LAD		ChC		Col
18-Sep		@LAD		ChC		Col
19-Sep		@LAD		ChC		Col
20-Sep		Off		Off		Off
21-Sep		@Ariz		Col		SD
22-Sep		@Ariz		Col		SD
23-Sep		@Ariz		Col		SD
24-Sep		Phil		LAD		@Ariz
25-Sep		Phil		LAD		@Ariz
26-Sep		Phil		LAD		@Ariz
27-Sep		Phil		Off		Off
28-Sep		Wash		@SD		@SF
29-Sep		Wash		@SD		@SF
30-Sep		Wash		@SD		@SF

Beyond the 13 games against the D-Backs and Dodgers, the Rockies need to keep pace with the D-Backs, and have a game or two to give against the Dodgers.  Whichever team wins the remaining series against the other two will have an advantage, but they cannot be tripped up by the others.   For instance the Rockies appear to have the easiest week coming up among the three teams, but cannot afford to go 2-4 or 1-5 against teams they should beat. 

Week in Review 8/13-19

6 Weeks left to the season here is what happened last week in the Home/Road Factors.  One take away is that it doesn't matter what your opponents record is, they can still beat you.

Home Road Factors Applied:
1. NL West: Colorado 91-71*
2. NL Central: Chicago 91-71*
3. NL East: Atlanta 87-75 
4. Home Wild Card:  Milwaukee 90-72
5. Visitor Wild Card:  Arizona 88-74 
6.  St. Louis 87-75
7.  Philadelphia 86-76

8.  Los Angeles 85-77

9. San Francisco 82-80#
10. Washington 82-80#
11. Pittsburgh 78-84

* Cubs and Rockies tied season series 3-3; Intradivison Cubs 29-27 .518 Rockies 26-24 .520; Interleague Cubs 10-5 .667 Rockies 12-6 .667; 

#San Francisco won season series with Washington 4-2

27 Outs

Baseball is a game that has no clock. Oh sure there's the between batters clock, or the inning changing clock, but there is no clock on the game play itself.

Instead baseballs official timekeeper  is outs.  In other sports you may be able to run out the clock without a play, or extend it by going out of bounds or calling a time out, in baseball you actually have to do something to win the game.

Each team gets 27 outs on offense 9 frames of 3 outs each.  When you get to 26 outs, and a lead, things look good. You can even get to two strikes on the hitter, but you still have to make the one more pitch.

So far in August:

On Thursday, August 2nd, the Rockies gave up 3 singles and a stolen base to the Cards in the 9th prior to the 26th out, to lose 3-2.

On Friday, August 3rd, the Rockies failed to get the 27th out as Eric Thames hit a 3 run home run off Wade Davis and the Brewers won 5-3.

On Sunday, August 5th, the Rockies failed to get the 27th out before Adam Ottavino gave up 3 runs allowing the Brewers to tie the game, giving each team extra outs.  The Rockies prevailed in 11 innings 5-3.

On Thursday, August 9th, the Rockies took a 5-3 lead into the 8th inning and gave up 2 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th to lose 8-5. The 3 runs in the 9th were recorded before the 25th out.

On Saturday, August 11th, the Rockies trailed 2-0 after 26 outs with two runners on, before Ryan McMahon hit a 3 run homer to win it.  

On Sunday, August 12th, the Rockies lost a 3-0 lead in the 7th and 8th innings to the Dodgers before securing victory with two outs in the bottom of the 9th on a walk off walk by Chris Iannetta. 

On Thursday, August 16th, the Rockies trailed 3-2 in the top of the 9th, as the Rockies rallied for 3 runs to beat the Braves 5-3.

And on Saturday, August 18th, the Rockies trailed 3-0 after 26 outs, and had no runners on.  The next four batters got on scoring 3 and tying the game before the 27th out.   The Rockies would win 5-3 over the Braves, in the 10th.  

So far in August, 7 games have been decided in the last at bat, demonstrating the uniqueness of  baseball.

And in other bizarre stories, the Dodgers lost tonight in Seattle when their pitcher balked in the winning run in the bottom of the 10th and the D-Backs lost in the bottom of the 9th on a walk off single.





 

Is This the Race we Thought We had in 2017?

In 2017, the NL West was one of the hottest races in MLB for the first 2 and a half months.  On Father's Day, 2017, the Rockies led the NL West and the NL with a 46-26 record, followed by Arizona and the Dodgers 44-26.  These were the top 3 teams in the league and only Houston in the AL had a better record at 46-24.

The expectation was that the race was going to be a battle to the end. But the baseball Gods had different plans as the Dodgers would go on a 47-10 tear en route to winning the Division by 11 games.   The Rockies and D-Backs would have a race for Wild Card positioning for the next two months, until the D-Backs took 5 of 7 from the Rockies in September.

This year, on June 28th, it looked like the D-Backs were in the driver's seat with a 4 game lead over the Dodgers 6 over the Giants and 8 over the Rockies.  Since then the Rockies have gone 28-16 all against teams at or above .500 at the time of playing them.  Meanwhile the Dodgers have gone 23-21 while the Arizona is 21-21 since June 28th.

It could turn out one of the teams could get hot and run away with the division again this year.  For the Rockies it may come down to the 21 day stretch from September 3rd-23rd where they play the Giants, Dodgers and D-Backs in Home and away series for a 19 game stretch.  The D-Backs have 17 games scattered against the other 3 teams from August 27th to September 26th, the Dodgers have 16 games from August 30th through the end of the season and the Giants only have 12 games against the other 3 from August 27th to the end of the season.  They also have 18 games left with teams below .500.

You may notice that I don't talk about the Wild Card slots much. My philosophy is that your eye should be on the big prize--the division title and a guaranteed series in the first round.  Once you are eliminated from that title or fall far out of the race then you concentrate on the consolation prize.  The other part of it is that the wild card chase will change considerably as the other divisions play primarily themselves during the home stretch, so even though there are 11 teams playing for the five spots, since all three division races are still unsettled, the wild card slots may run parallel to the division races.   In other words, if you stay on the heels in the division, you will probably be in a spot to be in a wild card slot as a consolation, if you don't ultimately win the division.

Win the Division. 

Projections

At the 3/4 pole of the season, it's time to discuss the likelihood of teams making the playoffs.

In the AL, a grand total of 6 teams are playing for 5 Spots.  Boston and Cleveland have double digit leads for the division title.  In the AL West it's now a three team race with Houston, Oakland and Seattle are within 4.5 games of each other.  The two teams who don't win the AL West, will compete with the Yankees for the two wild card spots.  Tampa Bay and the Angels are the only other teams at or above .500 in the AL, but are double digits out of the Visitor Wild Card position.

The NL is much different.  All three division races are 2 games or less between 1st and 2nd.  The NL West is 1 game among the top 3.  11 Teams are at or above .500.  Only the Padres, Mets, Marlins, and Reds are out of the playoffs.  8 Teams are within 7 games of either Wild Card Spot.

Many of the projection websites use run differential as a key element of their projections.  This clearly hurts the Rockies, as they have been negative for the whole season.  My system of Home/Away differential may not be better, especially in the NL West where none of the top 3 are doing well at home, but win on the road.  So maybe it will work.

If it does, here are my current projections for the NL Playoffs.

1. NL East: Atlanta 91-71
2. NL Central: Chicago 90-72
3. NL West: Colorado 86-76
4. Home Wild Card:  Philadelphia 90-72
5. Visitor Wild Card:  Play-in
            St. Louis 89-73 (H)
            Milwaukee 89-73 (A)
           Currently Milwaukee has a 7-6 Season Series lead with 6 games to play all in St. Louis.
7T Arizona 85-77
7T Los Angeles 85-77
9. Washington 83-79
10. San Francisco 81-81
11. Pittsburgh 80-82

We'll follow this over the final 7 weeks to see how it plays out.

A 7 Week Fight to the Finish

A year ago, the Rockies were 65-52 after getting swept in Miami and falling 18 games behind the Dodgers.   But they were tied with Arizona for the two Wild Card Spots.  Arizona in the next few weeks would take the commanding lead for the home Wild Card, and the Rockies went down to the wire to get the visitor Wild Card spot.

This year the Rockies rallied to win three of four against the Dodgers and are only 63-55, but only 1.5 games behind the D-Backs and half a game behind the Dodgers.

There are 7 weeks to play, and much head to head games. One team could still run away with it, but most likely with four teams in the mix (the Giants are only 6 games behind Arizona), any of the four teams can win it, and the division will go down to the final week.

Here are the remaining Schedules (3 game series unless noted):

Arizona:  Home: (20) LAA(2) Sea, SD (2) Atl (4) Chic Col, LAD,
                Away:  (23) Tex (2) SD (4) SF, LAD (4) Col (4) Hou  SD

Los Angeles: Home: (22) SF, STL, SD, Ariz(4) NYM, Col, SD
                      Away: (21) Sea, Tex(2) Col, Cinc StL (4), Ariz, SF

Colorado: Home: (23) SD, StL,  SF, LA, Ariz(4), Phil(4), Wash
                 Away:  (21) Hou (2) Atl (4) LAA(2) SD (4), SF,  LAD, Ariz

San Francisco:  Home: (21) Tex, Ariz, NYM, Atl, Col, SD, LAD
                          Away: (21) LAD, Cin, NYM, Col,  Milw, SD, STL

Schedule Quirks:  The Giants only play Ariz three times in the last 7 weeks. They also have only three game series left which means that they have an off day every week.  They also have three more  road trips that take them east of Colorado, while playing only one division foe on each trip. 

The Rockies play all 19 of their remaining games against D-Backs, Dodgers  and Giants  in a 3 week stretch from Labor Day to 9/23.  They also play 17 of their final 26 at home.

Dodgers only have 6 home games after September 5th, so 16 of their final 22 are on the road.

D-Backs have 15 of their final 25 games at home.

Half Empty or Half Full?

Half Full: Rockies are in First Place
Half Empty: Dodgers are going to get hot soon.

Winning Small

Through the first 15 games the Rockies have only been able to score more than 4 runs 6 times, and have lost 2 of those games.   On the other hand their opponent has only scored more than 4 runs 6 times, and the Rockies have lost all 6 of  those games.  The surprising stat is that the Rockies have held their opponents to less than 5 runs 9 times and they are 8-1 in those games losing only to Atlanta 4-0 this past Sunday.  The pitching has contributed the way the Rockies set it up, with very few bad starts.  Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson came out of the gate going a combined 6 1/3 innings and giving up 10 runs between them.    Since then the Rockies Starters have averaged 5.41 innings per start which has alleviated the load on the bullpen early. 

QUIRKS OF THE SCHEDULE:   The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provides for 4 more off days per season, which is why the season started on a Thursday this year.  The Rockies have only had one scheduled off day, April 1st after playing an excruciating three game set in Arizona.   They are now in the midst of a 17 day game schedule before having their 2nd off day next Thursday, which will be the longest stretch they play all season with another 17 day stretch in July and August Meanwhile, the Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs  will have 3 days off from April 2nd through 18th.  The Padres are also playing 17 straight, including 7 of them against the Rockies.   The Rockies will have 3 total off days in April, 5 in May, 3 in June,  4 in July (not including the All-Star Break), 3 in August, and only 2 in September.  This means they only have 5 days off after July 26th, playing 61 games in that span. The Padres have 5 in September alone. All four of the other NL West teams have 8 days off after July 26th. 

QUICK START: In 2017 the Rockies got out to a 10-5 record in their first 15 but were tied with the D-Backs at that point.  This year the D-Backs have jumped out to a 10-3 record and are in first by themselves.

It Was A Very Good Year

It wasn't fun to go out after one game, and I'm not a fan of one game "Series" in baseball, but that's another story.

In the end, outside of the Wild Card Game, the Rockies were let down by their hitting, more specifically their run scoring.   The Rockies had 8 Starting Pitchers, 4 Rookies and 4 "Veterans", and if this year is an indication, the near future could be pretty bright.

The Rookies combined for 93 Starts with 552 Innings Pitched and a 38-28 Record.  The Veterans only had 69 starts for 390 innings and a 26-29.  That of course includes Chad Bettis who amazingly came back for the last two months of the year, and barring any more setbacks should be stronger next year.

But if I told you in February that the veterans who were expected to make up 80% of the rotation this year would have less than 400 innings pitched this year, you probably would have told me this would be a down season. But the Rookies got their chances and made the best of it, and now the Rockies have 7 experienced starters going into 2018 before the hot stove league heats up. 

The Rockies were exciting, getting off to a 47-26 record in the first 2.5 months, and staying in the thick of a three-way race with the Dodgers and D-Backs.  Then came the 8 game losing streak part of a 5-15 stretch that saw the Rockies fail to win more than one game in a row. while the Dodgers went on a winning run the likes of which haven't been seen in a long time.  By the end of July, the Rockies were 14.5 games behind, but still in contention for the home wild card and comfortably ahead of Milwaukee for the Visitors Wild Card.

In the end, the Rockies finished with an 87-75 record--third best record of all-time behind 2009 and 2007.  They never had a losing record and for the 2nd time had a winning road record.

There's plenty to improve on in 2018, but there is a good core to start with pending the Free Agents, Trades and signings

Free Agents (from 40 Man Roster):

Greg Holland
Carlos Gonzalez
Jonathan Lucroy
Pat Neshek
Jake McGee
Tyler Chatwood
Mark Reynolds
Ryan Hanigan
Alexi Amarista

The Rockies have offered Holland a Qualifying Offer which preserves their rights to a draft pick if Holland is signed by someone else.

The Rockies will likely pursue Lucroy, and a couple of the relievers like Neshek or McGee along with Holland.  It's also likely they will move forward without Reynolds who has made great contributions at first the past couple of years.

All in all the Rockies had a very good year, and will look to make it a great one in 2018.

The Long and Winding Road That Leads To Your Door

Baseball is a long season.  162 games played over 6 months is the longest season in American Pro Sports.  Baseball still has the shortest post season, as the entire playoffs will take place over 29 days in October and possibly November 1st.

Let's admit it--after the first 2.5 months, we didn't think it would come down to the last weekend for the last Wild Card position, if anything we were hoping for a chance to clinch the West Division.  But the past 3.5 months have told a different story.

Going into the weekend, FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Rockies a 94% chance to make the playoffs and Milwaukee only has 6% chance.  But remember 2007 where San Diego went into Milwaukee needing 3 wins and/or Rockies losses to get the Wild Card Spot with 3 games to play.  On Friday, the Padres won while the Rockies lost to the D-Backs ending the 11 game winning streak and putting the Magic Number of 1 which meant they would have to lose 3 in a row including a Tie Breaker game, while the Rockies would have to win all 3 (which meant the Rockies magic number was essentially 6.)

Everything broke the Rockies way in their improbable win to the 2007 World Series, so don't start the celebration yet.  The Rockies also have made the playoffs 3 times as a Wild Card entry and all three times they have clinched the Wild Card on October 1st.  Expect this to go down to Sunday.  In 2018 the season ends on September 30th, but we will deal with that later.

It should be a fun weekend, just like this has been a fun season.

I Gotta Feeling That Tonight's Gonna Be a Good Night

Today is the 10th Anniversary of the start of THE greatest run in Rockies History and one of the greatest runs in MLB history, the 2007 drive to Rocktober.

The Rockies had just returned from a split of a four game series in Philadelphia, and promptly lost the first two games to the Marlins 7-6 and 10-2, and had the 7th best record in the NL at 76-72 4.5 games behind the Padres with 14 regular season games to play.   On Sunday, the Rockies casually won the series finale against the Marlins 13-0 where Todd Helton hit his 300th Home Run, and had Monday off.

On Tuesday, a double header was scheduled with the Dodgers, and Jeff Francis pitched a 3-1 gem during the day game, and the Rockies, while the night cap came down to the 9th inning trailing by a run, facing Dodgers Closer Takashi Saito, who the Rockies were hitless against for the season.   Saito got a ground out and strikeout, and faced Matt Holliday, who singled on the first pitch to Right Field.   Todd Helton came up and on a 1-2 pitch hit home run #301 to Right Center Field to win the game, tossing his helmet as he came home and the run was on.

As the Rockies drive to the playoffs once again, many of the retired 2007 Players returned for a reunion Friday night at Coors Field, to celebrate the improbable finish.

Oh, Yes, They Call Him the Streak

The Indians today set an American League record for consecutive wins with their 21st.
Last night, the Dodgers ended their longest losing streak in Los Angeles at 11.
Tonight, the Rockies go after their season high tying 7th win in a row and thier franchise tying 9th win in a row on the road.

Winning streaks are fun, losing streaks are frustrating.  And streaks don't just end with the one win or loss, you have to sustain it over a period of time.  The Dodgers earlier this season, won 59 of 72 games, the Rockies in 2007 won 20 of 21.  In 2009 they won 17 of 18.  In 2010, they won 10 in a row and 13 of 15 before turning it around and losing 13 of 14 to finish the season.

The point of all this is just to temper the excitement that comes with a winning strreak or keep perspective when your team is losing.  Cleveland has won 20 regular season games which means nothing other than their seeding in the playoffs. The streak will end at some point, will it go straight into a nosedive like the 2010 Rockies, or take them to the World Series like the 2007 Rockies.

DODGERS QUIETLY CLINCH:  The Dodgers have clinched a spot in the playoffs, althourgh many people will tell you that they still have a magic number of 2 ESPN actually has this correct.  The Reason:  The Cardinals need to win all but one of their games to catch the Dodgers and Milwaukee would have to win all of their games plus a tiebreaker game against the Dodgers (and the Dodgers would have to lose all their games.)  The Cubs can win all but 4 to catch the Dodgers if they lost all their games. Problem is the Cubs have 7 games against the Cardinals, and 4 against Milwaukee, while Milwaukee and St. Louis have the final 3 games against each other.  Only one team could possibly win all their games, which would give them the NL Central Division, while the H2H would knock the other two out of reach of the Dodgers.  Therefore the Dodgers have clinched the Visitor's Wild Card.

Oh Baby, Don't Mess With Me

The Rockies could have made it a lot easier on themselves by winning just a few more times in June, July, August, and Early September.  

But they didn't.  So they entered the current 8 game road trip with only a 2 game lead over St. Louis, and 2.5 over Milwaukee for the Visitor Wild Card Spot, and 7.5 games behind the D-Backs for the Home Wild Card Spot.

Realistically, they were looking at falling behind St. Louis or Milwaukee by the end of the trip as they were 1-5 in these two parks in June, and losing 24 of their past 33 on the road (although they had won 3 of their last 4 on the Road Trip.)  The most optimistic person, may have hoped for a 5-3 record, but more realistically it would be 3-5.

Instead the Rockies have put together a 5 game winning streak, and guarnteed that they will head home Friday night with the Visitor Wild Card lead.   They are also now 1.5 games ahead of the NL Central leading Cubs.

Nolan Arenado got annoyed by the fans behind the on-deck circle and transformed it into a 3 run homer in the 8th.

Magic number is now down to 16 over the Cardinals for Visitor Wild Card, 23 for the Home Wild Card.  

Lightning is Striking Again

It hadn't happened in 24 years, but it happened when it needed to:  The Rockies swept a four game series at Dodger Stadium for the 2nd time in their history, and the first time since August 8-11, 1993.
The Rockies used a good mix of starting pitching, timely hitting, and fantastic relief pitching to win the four games, go 6-1 for the week.  By Thursday, the Rockies had stretched their Visitor Wild Card lead back to 3 after Milwaukee closed to 1/2 game last Sunday, but the Cards and Brewers all swept their weekend series, to keep pace with the Rockies.  Meanwhile the D-Backs dropped 2 of 3 to the Padres as the Rockies closed to within 5 games of Arizona as they head to Phoenix for a 4 game series.

The Dodgers have lost 10 in a row, which is the longest losing streak in MLB this season, and ties the longest in their Los Angeles history. It also happened to them in 1961 and 1987.  They have also lost 15 of their last 16. Prior that they lost 15 games out of 74 from May 31st to August  25th.  9 of the last 15 losses have been at home.  They now go on a 10 game road trip to San Francisco, Washington and Philadelphia.  As bad as the Rockies 3-6 homestand last week, the Dodgers went 0-7 on this one.

The good news is the Rockies passed the Central Leading Cubs by a game, which means two of the three Central teams Cubs, Brewers and Cards have to pass them for the Rockies not to make the playoffs, but all three play teams with losing records early in the week, but over the final 17 days of the season, 2 of the 3 Central teams will play each other, meaning there are 14 losses between them.

Here's the remaining schedule (all series 3 games unless noted) Bold Playoff Contenders:

Los Angeles: Home (6)--San Francisco, San Diego; Away(13)--San Francisco, Washington, Philadelphia, Colorado

Arizona:  Home(10)--Colorado (4), Miami, San Francisco; Away(9); San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City

Colorado: Home(9)--San Diego, Miami, Los Angeles; Away(10):  Arizona (4), San Francisco (2), San Diego (4)

Chicago:  Home (9)--New York Mets, St. Louis, Cincinnati; Away(10) Tampa Bay(2) Milwaukee(4), St. Louis (4)

Milwaukee:  Home (10): Pittsburgh, Chicago (4), Cincinnati; Away (9) Miami, Pittsburgh, St. Louis

St. Louis: Home (10): Cincinnati, Chicago (4), Milwaukee; Away (9)--Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

The Nearer Your Destination The More You're Slip Slidin' away

The Rockies offensive woes continued despite winning their first game in the last 5 tries with a 4-3 win over the San Francisco Giants.  The hitting drought has reached 6 weeks and 37 games, where the Rockies have gone 15-22 since July 23rd.  

It's September and the stretch drive and while the D-Backs and Brewers (along with the Cubs) have gotten hot over the past two weeks, the Rockies are decidedly not hot.  But they haven't been cold enough (yet) to relinquish the Visitor Wild Card lead.   It was down to 1/2 game over Milwaukee yesterday and increased to 1.5 games today as both the Reds and Rockies got walk off wins.

As the  Rockies approach a key road trip with four games each in LA and Phoenix, the Rockies cannot afford to languish in their hitting doldrums any longer.  They need to find several people to step forward and lead the scoring effort, as the pitching continues to do well.

Meanwhile the Dodgers have been in their first prolonged funk of the year.   After losing 3 in a row and 5 of 7 back in early June, the Dodgers ran off winning streaks of 6, 10, 11, 9, and 6, en route to an amazing 56-11 run and taking them to a 91-36 overall record.  Over the past 10 games however they have now lost 9 of 10 and had their first 5 game losing streak and swept in a series for the first time.