Spring Begins

The Rockies are starting their final spring training in Tucson, and for the first time in their 18 year history, they are being considered a serious contender in the NL West.

Hope always springs eternal among major-league teams in February and March, with many hopes dashed quickly in April and May. One of the exceptions was last year's Rockies team who were hopelessly out of the playoffs by Memorial Day, but resurrected themselves to make the Playoffs for the 2nd time in 3 years.

But don't get overconfident. Things can change from one year to the next as we saw in 2008, when much of the same NL Champion 2007 team sleepwalked their way to a miserable 2008 and first third of 2009. The same thing can happen this year if they take themselves too seriously and don't prepare well in the spring.

Here are some things the 2010 Rockies have to watch out for.

1. A slow start--Now for most teams a fast start is getting out to a 20-10 record in the first month, but for the Rockies a fast start would be somewhere in the vicinity of .500 at Memorial Day. The last time the Rockies had a winning record at the end of May was 2006 at 27-26. This year realistically they need to build on last years, 72-38 finish, and show steady progress throughout the season.

2. Wearing down the bullpen--Last year the starters had an unbelievable stretch of healthiness, despite Franklin Morales going down in his 2nd start. Between April 22nd and August 10--a span of 99 games--the same 5 pitchers started every game for the Rockies. Altogether those 5--Cook, Jimenez, Marquis, de la Rosa and Hammel combined for 155 of the 162 starts. All but Marquis will be back, replaced by Jeff Francis who had 34 starts in 2007. The key will be for all 5 to stay healthy and get into the 6th inning again more times than not, which will spread the work out for the Bullpen.

3. More run scoring early--The biggest frustration with the Rockies in 2009, was their lack of run production early in ball games. Looking at a distribution of runs over the season, runs were pretty consistent across each 3 inning span. The most productive innings were the middle innings 4-6 which were also the opponent's least productive innings. Better scoring in the first 3 innings could take a little more pressure off the starting pitching which goes back to relieving the bullpen a little more.

4. More concentration on speed--Over the last 3 years, the Rockies have progressed from bombers to heads up players who utilize their speed as well as their power. And with speed that's not just stealing bases but taking the extra base more often. Without Matt Holliday, the Rockies hit 30 more home runs than in 2008, and 19 more than in 2007. The power is just spread among all the players. In 2009, they had 106 SB's about 35 fewer steals than in 2008, but a handful more than in 2007. They need to bring that up to about 150 steals, keep the power about the same.

5. Jim Tracy from the beginning--It was simply amazing to marvel at Jim Tracy almost from the start of his tenure. Sure he said the winning streak was not an aberration, but what he expected his players to do. And he followed through on it. But Clint Hurdle got a lot out of his players down the stretch of 2007, and then couldn't get them to respond again in 2008 or 2009. I believe Jim Tracy has a different approach, and won't allow the team to get complacen, and will stay on them from the beginning.

Hope springs eternal in Tucson. This time it may be real hope.