I have to take issue with Jim Tracy leaving Josh Outman in for so long to try to pick up a win. In order to buy in to the 4 man rotation, you more or less need to be pretty rigid on the pitch count for it to work long term. In three of his first four innings, Outman made 18 pitches each inning and got out of a couple jams. In his only 1-2-3 inning Outman required 15 pitches.
So going into the 5th, he was getting ready to throw his 70th pitch, and Tracy knew he would need to go at least 85-90 pitches to get through the inning. And he had a 10 run lead.
Perfect situation to get a win, but at what cost. 2 of the first 3 runners got on base and the count was already at 85. Probably the point that he should have come out at that point with only 1 out. He did strike out Josh Hamilton (but who can't this weekend) on 3 pitches and he was now at 88 and one out away.
The end result was 92 pitches, no win, and ultimately a potential easy win turned into a relatively close one, before the rest of the bullpen shut them down.
So will Outman be ready by Wednesday? We will see if this cost them long term and I suppose it's part of the experiment. There are options however. Depending on how the next 3 games go, the Rockies could put Outman in the long-relief role for a turn, and put Guthrie or Moscosco in a start on Wednesday. They could also bring up someone from Colo Springs for Wednesday as well, or they could let Outman pitch, but hold him just under 75.
By the way, in the first 5 games of the experiment, nobody has given up more than 5 runs in a start and everyone has made it to the limit (70-75) before being taken out.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Saturday, June 23, 2012
The 4 man pitching rotation
Since I suggested a modified starting rotation to a couple of family members earlier this month, I am fully on board with the experimental 4 man rotation, with the 3 long relievers.
In the 5 games prior to the change, the Rockies pitchers had issued 24 walks. In the four games since the rotation was implemented, the Rockies pitchers have only issued 8. If nothing else, the new rotation has caused pitchers to throw strikes.
The 19 runs given up are the fewest in any consecutive 4 games on the road since May 8-12, when they gave up 14. And like the last 4 games they were 1-3 in those games.
I'd like to see the Rockies stick with it, through the All-Star break, that would be 5 times through the rotation to see whether it starts to pay off.
However, the Rockies offense has only scored 26 runs in the first 7 games of the road trip, but 8 of them were in one inning. The other 54 innings has produced just 18 runs, about 1 run per 3 innings.
In the 5 games prior to the change, the Rockies pitchers had issued 24 walks. In the four games since the rotation was implemented, the Rockies pitchers have only issued 8. If nothing else, the new rotation has caused pitchers to throw strikes.
The 19 runs given up are the fewest in any consecutive 4 games on the road since May 8-12, when they gave up 14. And like the last 4 games they were 1-3 in those games.
I'd like to see the Rockies stick with it, through the All-Star break, that would be 5 times through the rotation to see whether it starts to pay off.
However, the Rockies offense has only scored 26 runs in the first 7 games of the road trip, but 8 of them were in one inning. The other 54 innings has produced just 18 runs, about 1 run per 3 innings.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Where do we go from here.
The Rockies have already mailed in this season with 40 losses in the first 65 games. With a home-laden early schedule in which they have stumbled to a 15-21 record, the Rockies are now playing for the future.
To that end, here are my suggestions:
1. Figure out the future rotation. Bring back Pomerantz, make a decision on Francis and Guthrie. Continue to develop with White and Friedrich. There is some promise there, but they need to stop being afraid to throw strikes. Give a few of the other prospects chances late in the year.
2. Release Giambi already. As much as I like Giambi's contributions on the bench, he serves no useful purpose as a DH on a NL team. He's an aged backup to an aging 1st Baseman. Use Cuddyer, Pacheco or someone else to spell Helton, and give a younger future player more playing time.
3. Find an infield. Tulowitzki is the only sure part of the infield for the future. Let's find out if Pacheco, or Nelson is an everyday 3b (and I like what I'm seeing out of both of them.) Nelson, Herrera or Young as 2B. First Base will always be a problem, in the initial replacements for Helton eventually.
4. Determine if this Manager and Coaching Staff have the right mindset to take this team to a more competitive level. Jim Tracy is very patient. Bob Apodacca has worked well with the young pitchers, but we keep seeing Deja Vu all over again. We need to have the fundamentals stressed a LOT more.
5. Dan O'Dowd--See #4 for the General Manager.
To that end, here are my suggestions:
1. Figure out the future rotation. Bring back Pomerantz, make a decision on Francis and Guthrie. Continue to develop with White and Friedrich. There is some promise there, but they need to stop being afraid to throw strikes. Give a few of the other prospects chances late in the year.
2. Release Giambi already. As much as I like Giambi's contributions on the bench, he serves no useful purpose as a DH on a NL team. He's an aged backup to an aging 1st Baseman. Use Cuddyer, Pacheco or someone else to spell Helton, and give a younger future player more playing time.
3. Find an infield. Tulowitzki is the only sure part of the infield for the future. Let's find out if Pacheco, or Nelson is an everyday 3b (and I like what I'm seeing out of both of them.) Nelson, Herrera or Young as 2B. First Base will always be a problem, in the initial replacements for Helton eventually.
4. Determine if this Manager and Coaching Staff have the right mindset to take this team to a more competitive level. Jim Tracy is very patient. Bob Apodacca has worked well with the young pitchers, but we keep seeing Deja Vu all over again. We need to have the fundamentals stressed a LOT more.
5. Dan O'Dowd--See #4 for the General Manager.
The Myth of the Improved Offense
Recently I heard Jeff Huson on the Rockies broadcast mention that the offense was "fine". He cited their greater than 5 runs per game as exhibit A. Other commentary and reporting also mentions that the offense is improved. In fact the Rockies currently lead the National League in Runs scored, but that is only one statistic.
In 2011, the Rockies scored over 4.5 runs per game, in 2012 so far, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game. That is better, however the distribution of those games is what matters. In 15 games the Rockies have scored 8 runs or more averaging 10.5 runs per game. In 32 games the Rockies have scored 4 runs or less, averaging 2.15 runs per game. Combining the 15 high scoring games with the 32 low scoring games, the Rockies are of course averaging 4.83 runs per game which IS better than last year, however nearly half their games they are averaging 2.15 runs per game. Over 1/3 of their games they are getting 3 runs or less, which is not going to do them any good this season with the pitching in disarray as it is.
Or to put it another way, nearly half their runs (48%) were scored in about 23% of the games, with an 11-4 record. In about 50% of the games, they have scored 21% of their runs with a 5-27 record. The remaining games (between 5-7 runs) has been 18 games, and are 9-9.
Runs are great, but it's hard to say that the Rockies have a better offense this year. With the decreased pitching and fielding, this season will continue to be a disaster.
In 2011, the Rockies scored over 4.5 runs per game, in 2012 so far, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game. That is better, however the distribution of those games is what matters. In 15 games the Rockies have scored 8 runs or more averaging 10.5 runs per game. In 32 games the Rockies have scored 4 runs or less, averaging 2.15 runs per game. Combining the 15 high scoring games with the 32 low scoring games, the Rockies are of course averaging 4.83 runs per game which IS better than last year, however nearly half their games they are averaging 2.15 runs per game. Over 1/3 of their games they are getting 3 runs or less, which is not going to do them any good this season with the pitching in disarray as it is.
Or to put it another way, nearly half their runs (48%) were scored in about 23% of the games, with an 11-4 record. In about 50% of the games, they have scored 21% of their runs with a 5-27 record. The remaining games (between 5-7 runs) has been 18 games, and are 9-9.
Runs are great, but it's hard to say that the Rockies have a better offense this year. With the decreased pitching and fielding, this season will continue to be a disaster.
Friday, June 1, 2012
Better May Than Last Year
You may find this hard to believe, but the Rockies actually had a better May in 2012 than 2011. The Rockies took a 4 game winning streak and 6 of 8 streak to close out the month and complete a 10-18 Month. In 2011, the Rockies lost 10 of their last 13 to finish 8-21.
The Rockies have a lot of ground to make up after digging themselves a huge hole, and there are finally some signs of them breaking out of it. And they start June with their last chance to directly gain ground on the Dodgers before early August. The Dodgers have also played 30 of their first 51 games at home where they are 21-9 (21-5) before a recent 4 game sweep by Milwaukee. The Rockies may have a chance to further close the gap as the Dodgers play 19 of 28 on the road in June (although 3 of those road games are against the Angels). The Dodgers are 11-10 on the road, while the Rockies play 15 of 27 at home where things are starting to heat up.
The Rockies have a lot of ground to make up after digging themselves a huge hole, and there are finally some signs of them breaking out of it. And they start June with their last chance to directly gain ground on the Dodgers before early August. The Dodgers have also played 30 of their first 51 games at home where they are 21-9 (21-5) before a recent 4 game sweep by Milwaukee. The Rockies may have a chance to further close the gap as the Dodgers play 19 of 28 on the road in June (although 3 of those road games are against the Angels). The Dodgers are 11-10 on the road, while the Rockies play 15 of 27 at home where things are starting to heat up.
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