The Myth of the Improved Offense

Recently I heard Jeff Huson on the Rockies broadcast mention that the offense was "fine".    He cited their greater than 5 runs per game as exhibit A.  Other commentary and reporting also mentions that the offense is improved.  In fact the Rockies currently lead the National League in Runs scored, but that is only one statistic.

In 2011, the Rockies scored over 4.5 runs per game, in 2012 so far, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game.  That is better, however the distribution of those games is what matters.  In 15 games the Rockies have scored 8 runs or more averaging 10.5 runs per game.  In 32 games the Rockies have scored 4 runs or less, averaging 2.15 runs per game.  Combining the 15 high scoring games with the 32 low scoring games, the Rockies are of course averaging 4.83 runs per game which IS better than last year, however nearly half their games they are averaging 2.15 runs per game.  Over 1/3 of their games they are getting 3 runs or less, which is not going to do them any good this season with the pitching in disarray as it is.

Or to put it another way, nearly half their runs (48%) were scored in about 23% of the games, with an 11-4 record.  In about 50% of the games, they have scored 21% of their runs with a 5-27 record.  The remaining games (between 5-7 runs) has been 18 games, and are 9-9.

Runs are great, but it's hard to say that the Rockies have a better offense this year.  With the decreased pitching and fielding, this season will continue to be a disaster.