The Rockies are hardly in control of their own destiny, but they get to have a huge say in a lot of destinies including their own. Of their final 39 games (which started last Monday) the Rockies play 24 of them against teams that are currently either in 1st or 2nd place in their divisions, and 9 others against the Dodgers who are currently breathing down the Rockies back. Only the 6 remaining games against the D-Backs are the only games that aren't in the race.
This of course could be a benefit or a curse. I'm sure the NL East 2nd Place Phillies were ecstatic that the Rockies swept the NL East Leaders, Braves at Coors this week, but at the same time the Phillies managed to lose a half game on the Braves by getting swept by the pitiful Houston Astros IN PHILADELPHIA.
My advice for the Rockies is to go out and play the games. Concentrate only on the games you play, the rest of the results you have no control over.
The NL West title is in all reality out of reach barring a total collapse by the Padres (and they have 29 games against contending teams), so we may become Padres fans when they take on the Phillies this weekend, and have 7 games remaining with the Giants, but also play the Cards and Reds. The Reds have 25 games against non-contenders while the Cards have 22 Non-contender games, but the cards have 14 of their next 17 on the road (including last night's 13 inning loss to Washington). Looking objectively at the schedule though, the Reds and Cards have the inside track to both teams making the playoffs as the Central winner and the Wild Card in either order.
But then again, that's why the games are played on the field.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 19, 2010
A Word About Brad Hawpe
One of the things, we as Rockies fans will have to get used to is the fact that we won't have a lot of long term players. It's not because the Owners are cheap, it's the business model that seems to work for constrained budgets in MLB. As soon as you go outside that plan and sign too many players to long-term contracts, rather than bring prospects up, it usually requires a major rebuild--see the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland A's and even the early 2000's Rockies.
That said, it is still tough to see Brad Hawpe just get released, going from All-Star to released in 13 months is an incredible downfall. I wish Hawpe well--he's a class act, but I'm also glad the Rockies didn't go out and spend a lot on a long-term contract for him.
That said, it is still tough to see Brad Hawpe just get released, going from All-Star to released in 13 months is an incredible downfall. I wish Hawpe well--he's a class act, but I'm also glad the Rockies didn't go out and spend a lot on a long-term contract for him.
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Get a Grip
When I "opened" the morning paper (I get it via Kindle), I read where one writer said (hopefully, facetiously) that because of the Rockies road woes (Currently 23-36) they would have to win their remaining Home games--All of them. I can state unequivocally right now that that will not happen, so let's look at the reality of where the Rockies are.
First off, it's definitely not good. In 2007 they were 6 games out of first and 3 games out of the Wild Card. In 2009 they were 5 games out of first and 1.5 games ahead in the Wild Card. This year they are 8.5 games out of first and 5 games out of the Wild Card.
The Rockies desperately need a run of wins, which is not just a winning streak but a prolonged period of time winning, something like the Phillies 16-4 streak prior to last night, which pretty much started with the sweep of the Rockies (after a getaway win in St. Louis) or the 20-3 record the Rockies ran off last year in June. Or even the 21-1 record they had at the end of 2007.
The good news is if they have any kind of a run they will be doing it at the expense of the NL West, where 33 of their remaining 47 games remain. Of course, NOT getting on some kind of run means they get buried. The Rockies have had spurts of good Pitching and Good Hitting at different parts of the season. They haven't gotten them both going at the same time.
Let's also look at the Road Record. It is true they have not had a winning road trip, but that just tells me that a team this good won't go through the whole season without a winning road trip. They have 4 left (ignoring the makeup game with Philadelphia in Denver on September 2nd. 3 trips are against the West and the final one in St. Louis.
And if you take out the disaster that was the 2-9 road trip, the Rockies are 21-27 on the Road. Their other Road trips were 1-2, 3-4, 4-5, 3-4, 3-3, 1-2, 3-3, and 3-4.
It's definitely a cross roads for the Rockies, and hopefully they will respond positively, but it also may not be their year, which would be a shame after all the big moments of this season.
First off, it's definitely not good. In 2007 they were 6 games out of first and 3 games out of the Wild Card. In 2009 they were 5 games out of first and 1.5 games ahead in the Wild Card. This year they are 8.5 games out of first and 5 games out of the Wild Card.
The Rockies desperately need a run of wins, which is not just a winning streak but a prolonged period of time winning, something like the Phillies 16-4 streak prior to last night, which pretty much started with the sweep of the Rockies (after a getaway win in St. Louis) or the 20-3 record the Rockies ran off last year in June. Or even the 21-1 record they had at the end of 2007.
The good news is if they have any kind of a run they will be doing it at the expense of the NL West, where 33 of their remaining 47 games remain. Of course, NOT getting on some kind of run means they get buried. The Rockies have had spurts of good Pitching and Good Hitting at different parts of the season. They haven't gotten them both going at the same time.
Let's also look at the Road Record. It is true they have not had a winning road trip, but that just tells me that a team this good won't go through the whole season without a winning road trip. They have 4 left (ignoring the makeup game with Philadelphia in Denver on September 2nd. 3 trips are against the West and the final one in St. Louis.
And if you take out the disaster that was the 2-9 road trip, the Rockies are 21-27 on the Road. Their other Road trips were 1-2, 3-4, 4-5, 3-4, 3-3, 1-2, 3-3, and 3-4.
It's definitely a cross roads for the Rockies, and hopefully they will respond positively, but it also may not be their year, which would be a shame after all the big moments of this season.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
The Road Woes
The Rockies have never been a good road team. Except for 2007 and 2009, they have never been anywhere close to .500 on the road. The biggest surprise of 2009 was the Rockies actually got kick-started on the road to the Wild Card on the road by winning the first 8 of their season high 11 game winning streak on an 11 game road trip. After dropping 3 in a row to Houston, they salvaged the last game, then swept 4 in St. Louis and 3 in Milwaukee.
Hopes were high this year as the Rockies headed into the All-Star break winning 8 of 10 at home and embarking on the season's longest road trip of 11. The Rockies of course, tanked it, losing 3 of the first 5, then dropping the final 6, to take them to 20-32 on the road.
The Rockies are gangbusters at home, winning 36 of 55 at home. Even if they were to continue that pace the rest of the season (18-8) they would finish 75-60, without the 27 remaining road games.
Simplified, they would need to go 15-12 on the road to hit 90 wins, which is always my target for the Wild Card slot. 20-7 and they would have 95 wins, and a probable NL West title as 18 of their remaining road games are against the NL West. A big road kick now would be huge.
Which brings up another point. The NL West still has 44% of their composite games against each other (79 intra-division games of 180 total for the season). That means there are 158 decisions to be made in direct competition with the West. Each team has 30-33 remaining games vs. the West. There are also 78 composite games against the Central Division with the Padres having the most at 21. The Dodgers have the most games remaining against the East with 13 of the 32 composite games left.
The Padres probably have the most favorable schedule left although they still have two 9 game road trips each going to two other time zones. The Rockies don't go East of the Mississippi after this road trip, and play all their games, except the season finale series against St. Louis in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.
Hopes were high this year as the Rockies headed into the All-Star break winning 8 of 10 at home and embarking on the season's longest road trip of 11. The Rockies of course, tanked it, losing 3 of the first 5, then dropping the final 6, to take them to 20-32 on the road.
The Rockies are gangbusters at home, winning 36 of 55 at home. Even if they were to continue that pace the rest of the season (18-8) they would finish 75-60, without the 27 remaining road games.
Simplified, they would need to go 15-12 on the road to hit 90 wins, which is always my target for the Wild Card slot. 20-7 and they would have 95 wins, and a probable NL West title as 18 of their remaining road games are against the NL West. A big road kick now would be huge.
Which brings up another point. The NL West still has 44% of their composite games against each other (79 intra-division games of 180 total for the season). That means there are 158 decisions to be made in direct competition with the West. Each team has 30-33 remaining games vs. the West. There are also 78 composite games against the Central Division with the Padres having the most at 21. The Dodgers have the most games remaining against the East with 13 of the 32 composite games left.
The Padres probably have the most favorable schedule left although they still have two 9 game road trips each going to two other time zones. The Rockies don't go East of the Mississippi after this road trip, and play all their games, except the season finale series against St. Louis in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.
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