Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Hot Stove League Speculation Begins

Starting to read the "expert" opinions about what Dan O'Dowd, and the Rockies should do in the offseason. Rather than argue why some of them are wrong, I'll just put my list out there.

Huston Street--Despite the two bad games in the LDS, Street deserves a couple of years to see what he can do. Even if someone like Morales eventually takes over the Closer role, or it's a team closing with a left/right combination, he's still worth it to be the setup guy or late inning man. Taking a two or three year contract with him will stabilize things and not break the bank.

Garrett Atkins Likely to be non-tendered and become a free agent. That commits the Rockies to Ian Stewart at Third. Stewart needs to become a bigger bat and fill in as Cleanup or 5 hole. Playing all year at 3B will also help him and be consistent. Plus Atkins would be a free agent after 2010, signing him for next year doesn't make a lot of sense.

Yorvit Torrealba Yorvit is fun to watch and has done wonders with the pitching staff. The Rockies could keep him but would probably end up paying too much. Either way, Torrealba is best back as a backup to Iannetta, Phillips or someone else.

Clint Barmes Barmes is the one I'm most iffy on. He's a career .258 hitter and will be 31 next year. He has 2 years remaining before he's eligible for Free Agency. His defense without question is valuable, but the big question is whether his bat is a liability. A two-year contract with an 3rd year option might be in line. If he can bring his average up even 20 points, he'd be worthwhile.

Brad Hawpe Hawpe does not have to be moved this winter. He got off to a hot start and made the All-Star team, but his final numbers were pretty consistent with every season except for his career year of 2007. He can be expected to provide .285, 25 HR and 80 RBI. It's probably better for the Rockies if it's a little more spread evenly over the season. Career wise he tends to fall off a little bit in the 2nd half.

Jason GiambiAs much as I liked Giambi's influence in the dugout down the stretch, I'm not sure he'd be valuable on a year long contract in 2010. He's more fitted to be a DH, but showed some skills playing 1B. The big question would be, if Atkins doesn't come back who is the backup 1B option for the Rockies?

Starting Pitching The Rotation looks like Cook, Jimenez, and De La Rosa are solid, and Hammel certainly deserves a shot. Jimenez and Cook are already signed through at least 2012 with options. Francis could be the 5th starter (possibly as high as #3) depending on his recovery in the spring. If Contreras re-signs, he could possibly become a starter. Otherwise look for a couple of new faces to compete. It's also possible that De La Rosa could become trade bait after his success this year, however I like having him as a lefty starter with Francis. Expect Marquis not to be back, and I'm not convinced the Rockies need to sign or trade for a big name starter. Continue the trend of looking for good young sinkerballers and groom them for Coors. Belisle and Chacin may be two possibilities to be major-league starters next year.

Relief Pitchers O'Dowd assembled an amazing bullpen during the season which proved to be a big part of Jim Tracy's plan in making the Rockies playoff contenders. Street will be the Closer, Morales, and Betancourt likely setup.
There's much talk of Corpas being traded, but if he doesn't go, he and Buchholz are both recovering from injuries could be huge additions to Matt Daley, and Flores. I'm indifferent to Beimel.

First up is getting contracts lined up for O'Dowd and Tracy, and the Coaching staff.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Disappointing End

Just when you thought the Rockies had another one of their magical last at-bat comebacks, the Phillies come up with one of their own against Huston Street.

Many people are down on Street, but he's been tremendous all year, and contributed so much to getting the Rockies into the Playoffs. My only concern is whether his arm wasn't as strong as it was before the late-season injury.

Baseball is a game without a clock. You can't sit on the ball and wait it out, you have to eventually face someone, and when you do, you have to get the out. Utley worked a walk after having two strikes, Howard and Werth get hits. They did their job against a Huston Street who had been so strong all season. Give them some credit along with the blame on Street.

Is there any doubt now that Carlos Gonzalez is a Major-League Ballplayer? Struggling when he was first called up in June, and on the verge of being sent down in July if his critics had his way, Jim Tracy stayed with CarGo and it paid off down the stretch and especially in the playoff series. He garnered 10 hits, 5 runs, and 2 Stolen Bases. He also had 2 walks and only struckout once.

I've been pulling for Clint Barmes, but you have to wonder just how much his great fielding overcomes his anemic hitting. Magnified by an 0 for 14 in the Playoffs, he hit .245 during the regular season. He could possibly develop into a better hitter. I for one, would like to see him cut down the HR (23 this year) and get more base hits and improve the average to .270 or better. Not sure I would issue a multi-year contract to him just yet.

Yorvit Torrealba briefly left the Rockies two years ago to be a Met. When it turned out the contract wasn't what he thought it was he returned to the Rockies. You just have to love his boyish enthusiasm for the game, and the way he handles the pitchers and got key hits down the stretch were big.

The Rockies were 45-0 at home and 83-1 overall when leading after the 8th inning during the season. They ended up 84-2 overall and 45-1 at home.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Backs to the Wall

Usually a one run loss late really hurts, and although the loss puts the Rockies in a bind, I left the game last night...er, early this morning feeling more content than I probably should. Perhaps it's because it's the Phillies, the team I rooted for as a Phillie Phanatic in my childhood and most of my adult life, but I think it was more because I believe both teams played hard despite the cold conditions and did everything they could to win. One thing breaks the other way and the outcome could be the opposite.

Carlos Gonzalez scored three times to tie the game, 1-1, 4-4 on HR and 5-5 on a Sac Fly, but the the Rockies weren't able to get him to tie it at 6-6 in the 9th. Not sure if that would have been any kind of record, but it would have been great from a Rockies perspective.

So tonight's game is the first of two must wins for the Rockies or the 2009 Season that has seen it's share of magical moments will be over. It's going to require the Rockies to knock Cliff Lee out fairly early. Lee has never pitched at Coors Field before, and has had a few bad outings this season for the Phillies mostly on the road, so there's hope. But the Rockies just can't afford to leave baserunners on in key situations without getting anything out of it.

The Rockies also need to have Ubaldo Jimenez in control. Without the 8 walks last night, the Rockies might have coasted to an easy win. In the first two games the Rockies gave up 5 walks total.

But the RISP for the series is 5 for 19 or .263 for the Rockies and 11 for 28 for the Phillies at .392. Even that out a little more and we could have a completely different series.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

The Psychology of the Postponement

Since yesterday's postponement, much virtual ink has been spilled on how the postponed game helps the Phillies because they can now pitch 3 more left-handers at the Rockies. As I've discussed before, the Rockies win one of every two games started by a LHP this season, which means presumbly that they would win one of the next two, and it would be a toss-up on game 5. But if you split the stats into Coors field and not Coors field, LHP have performed horribly here going only 10-19 against the Rockies. That would indicate a 2 out of 3 advantage for the Rockies and if those two are the two games that are played, then the Rockies win the series.

Happ has faced 7 batters at Coors field, giving up one hit on opening day. He also shut out the Rockies at Citizens Bank in a complete game in his only start against Colorado. That was a 7-0 game and the Phillies got 4 runs in the first couple of innings to give him breathing room. On the downside, his ERA is over 2 points better on the Road than at home. 1.99 vs. 4.18. But on the positive side, it can't get any lower for the Rockies here than it was in Philadelphia against him.

There are not too many Stadiums that Cliff Lee hasn't pitched in, but Coors Field is one of them. Both times he has faced the Rockies has been in CBP, and he has certainly been good. Another pitcher that I'd rather have here than back in Philadelphia in Game 5. It was inevitable we would see him again if it went the distance, the coldout may help us there.

It surprised me to find out that Cole Hamels has faced the Rockies more times in the Postseason than in the Regular Season. And the Rockies have beaten him all 3 times:

October 3, 2007 Rockies 4, Phillies 2. Hamels 6 2/3 IP 3 Runs 3 Hits 4 BB, 7 K. 4.05 ERA
April 10, 2009 Rockies 10, Phillies 3. Hamels 3 2/3 IP 7 Runs 11 Hits 17.18 ERA
October 8, 2009 Rockies 5, Phillies 4. Hamels 5 IP 4 runs, 7 Hits 5 K 7.20 ERA
Totals 15 1/3 IP 14 R 21 Hits 8.22 ERA

That's the guy I want to be going up against in a series deciding game.

From the Rockies side, it also helps the pitching. Jason Hammel could be the secret weapon nobody is talking about. He consistently gives up 2-4 runs per start, so the key is to get runs on Happ as early as they can.

Bypassing Marquis to get to both Jimenez and Cook again, only helps the Rockies chances. Plus Marquis can continue to work out of the bullpen.

So overall, it's not a huge advantage to either team. Both are going to have to work harder to win the series, against each team's best pitchers.

And that's the way the Postseason should be decided, not on some fluke play in bad weather caused by MLB trying to force teams to stay on schedule.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Saturday's Game Postponed

Game 3 of the Rockies and Phillies series at Coors Field Saturday Night was postponed this morning because of Snow, and Cold Weather.

Smart move by MLB as the weather for Sunday and Monday is much nicer with high's expected in the 50's and Game time temperatures should be at least in the high 40's.

Sunday's Game remains at 8:07 PM. Monday's game time will be announced before Sunday's game starts. If both AL Series end Sunday, the game will likely be at 5:00 PM, if one or both of them go 4 games, then game time would likely be 3:00 PM or Noon.

Game 5 will still be in Philadelphia on Tuesday if the two teams split the games at Coors Field.

The Postponement changes the Phillies starter in game 3 to J.A. Happ instead of Pedro Martinez, and Monday will likely be a rematch between Cliff Lee and Ubaldo Jimenez. If Tuesday's Game is needed then Aaron Cook will face Cole Hamels. This means the Rockies would face 5 left-handed starting pitchers in the series.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

.500 means One out of Two

Another misinterpreted stat: A lot has been made out of the fact the Rockies aren't very good against Lefthanded starters, but they seemed to ignore the fact that the Rockies were .500 against Left handers at 26-26. They seem to imply that the Rockies lose all the time to lefthanders, when the truth is for every 2 starts the Rockies have against lefthanders they win 1. And true to form they pulled out today's game against Lefthander Cole Hamels, who they have had a lot of success against. This brings the series to Denver for two games, probably in the cold weather in the 30's as I'm expecting the Rockies and Phillies to play very late on Sunday night (8:30-9:00 PM Mountain), especially if all four series are still going that day. It is certain that 3 will be going, and the Cardinals have two chances to get the Dodgers to a fourth game.

Best 3 out of 5 series are difficult because even the first loss can snowball you out of the playoffs pretty quickly. Winning one on the road in the first two games is especially key, because no National League team has come back from a 2-0 deficit in the Divisional Series. The Rockies showed the grit we've seen all season by holding on to win today. Although it really could have been a blowout, if the Rockies had been able to capitalize with one more key hit with the bases loaded in the 7th and 8th innings. But give some of the credit to the much-maligned Phillies bullpen (although technically 3 of today's relievers have been primarily starters for the regular season.)

So now the question becomes, who will be the Phillies starters in Games 3 and 4. Rockies will go with Jason Hammel, no relation to Cole Hamels on Saturday night, and are likely to use Jason Marquis on Sunday. UPDATE: Charlie Manuel is looking at Blanton who pitched Thursday and Pedro Martinez as the Game 3 starter. J.A. Happ who left the game after getting hit by Seth Smith is unlikely to pitch game 3 but may start game 4. A postponement of either game, might move Game 4 to a rematch between Jimenez and Lee, in Game 4 on Monday, rather than Game 5 on Tuesday.

So with a day off tomorrow, the Rockies come home after doing what they need to do, and the Phillies needing to do the same thing here with their 3rd and 4th starters (whoever they are.)

Phillies are 48-33 on the Road this year, but 7-10 on their last two road trips of the season, Rockies are 51-30 at home and 42-16 since June 3rd.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Elite 8

In the NCAA Basketball tournament it takes 3 rounds to get to this point, in the NHL and NBA this is the 2nd Round, and even in the NFL it's the 2nd round after a few teams get byes. The only major sport that has less teams at the starting point of it's playoffs is College Football, which uh, doesn't have a playoff and starts eliminating teams from it's "championship" before the season even starts. But that's another story.

Major League Baseball starts with 8. 20 years ago it was only 4, and 45 years ago it was only 2. But baseball plays more games to decide these 8 than any other sport does to determine it's 12, 16, or 64. 162 games over 6 months leaves us at this point--22 teams gone (or will be after today's tiebreaker game between the Twins and Tigers) and 8 remain.

The battle for the World Series begins Wednesday in best of 5 battles for the League Championship Series, and althought the next 4 weeks will bring us much drama heartbreak and joy in the 8 Mudville's left (well, actually 7 since LA will have two representatives) there are still a couple things I'd like to see changed.

Division Series--Make it a best of 7 like the others. Since 1995 when the Division series started, there have been 56 of them. 22 of them have been 3-0, 14 of 28 in the National League. 21 have gone four games, 10 in the National League. Only 4 of 28 NL Series have gone 5 games, the Last in 2004, while 9 have gone 5 in the AL the last being in 2005. These things are pretty much over after the first game. By extending it two more games and compressing the schedule a little bit, it would actually allow the LCS to move forward faster. Start one league on Tuesday and the other on Wednesday. Allow TBS to use TNT to broadcast simultaneously on certain days to use up to three windows a day (possibly overlap them by 1.5 hours so everybody can see the end of the games.) a 2-3-2 Schedule would only extend it one additional day and starting a day earlier would get it back.

League Championship Series--The biggest thing here is to remove the extra off day between games 4 and 5. It hurts a team that sweeps by giving them way too much time off between the LCS and World Series.

World Series--Start the games earlier, even if it means putting them in daylight in the West including Denver. All night games in Colorado will be cooler in the fall anyway. I'd go back to weekend day games also, but know that that is not going to happen.

Monday, October 5, 2009

The Rockies Season In Review--The Road to the Playoffs

The Rockies Clinched a postseason berth in the playoffs on Thursday afternoon in their final regular season game at Coors Field this year. Although the final result was fairly easy winning 9-2--their most lopsided win since a 13-5 trouncing of Arizona on September 6--the road to the playoffs was anything but easy.

The season started out okay, with the Rockies splitting their first 8 games, before getting swept by the Dodgers in LA the second weekend of the season. They then lost 2 out of 3 in their 2nd trip to Phoenix before losing two more to LA at home and digging a 5-11 hole, and the deathwatch began for Clint Hurdle. By mid-may the Rockies were 13-20 before beginning entering a stretch of schedule that would find them on the road for 30 out of the next 45 games with consecutive road trips of 10, 11 and 9 games forming a club sandwich around a 6 and 9 game home stand.

On the first road trip, they promptly lost 4 of their first 6 games taking them to 15-22 before winning 3 of the final 4 games evening the road trip at 5-5. Upon coming home on Memorial Day the Rockies hit rock bottom by giving up 7 runs in one inning to the Dodgers, before clawing back to a 7-6 deficit, before giving up 8 runs in another inning in the same game losing 16-6. After two more losses to the Dodgers and the team 10 games under .500 at 18-28, Dan O'Dowd had seen enough, and decided to fire Clint Hurdle and replace him with Bench Coach Jim Tracy. The move looked like it would have an effect as the Rockies beat the Padres in the next two games, but lost the Sunday finale.

The team then set out on the 11 game road trip which started in Houston, and promptly lost the next 3 games, and mired the Rockies at 20-32. This fan was just hoping they would somehow make their way back to .500 before season's end, or at least avoid the Nationals who were only 4.5 games behind them for worst team in the majors. There they sat 15.5 games behind the Dodgers, and 9.5 games behind the Wild Card Leaders the St. Louis Cardinals.

So at this point the Rockies still had 26 games left in the ridculous 30 road games in 45 game stretch and the Rockies had managed to go only 8-11. What happened next is incomprehensible in light of the Rockies history long road woes. The Rockies salvage the 4th game in Houston by crushing the Astros 10-3, and head to St. Louis for another 4-game set. The Rockies not only sweep the Cardinals, they outscore them 33-9. Heading to Milwaukee next and the Rockies sweep the Brewers in 2 1-run games and a 2-run game, and head back to Colorado with an 8 game winning streak and a head of steam, heading into inter-league play and a 28-32 record.

The home stand begins with their third series sweep in a row, taking the Mariners and matching their longest ever winning streak at 11 set in September, 2007. The streak ends however as the Tampa Bay Rays pound Jorge De La Rosa in the first 3 innings and win 12-4. It turns out to be a temporary setback however as the Rockies win the six and move to a 37-33 reoord. The Rockies lose the next two in Anaheim, sweep the A's in Oakland, and come back to LA and lose two out of 3 to the Dodgers, which ends the 45 game death stretch at 41-37. All told, there record was 28-17. The good news at this point is that the Rockies now have 16 of their next 20 at home, and 49 home games left in the season vs. 35 Road Games. It's now a favorable schedule as it requires the Rockies to win one game for every home game to get to 90 wins, and a possible playoff berth.

But the Rockies continue their mini-slide losing two of three to the D-Backs. Then the Rockies sweep Washington and win the first of 4 games with Atlanta before losing the next two. On Sunday, July 12, the Rockies were facing going into the All-Star Break on a 3-game losing streak as the Braves jumped out to a 7-3 lead by the 5th inning. The Rockies then make a late inning comeback which would become nearly a trademark during the 2nd half of the season. In the 7th the Rockies score 3 runs capped by a Seth Smith 2-run Home Run. In the 8th Ryan Spilborghs hits a Double with two on, scoring Ian Stewart, while Chris Iannetta gets thrown out at home. Finally in the 9th inning, Brad Hawpe hits a 2 out double to score Smith with the winning run to send the Rockies into the break at 47-41. Since June 3rd the Rockies had gone 27-9. They were still 9 games behind the Dodgers but now in 3rd place in the West but only 2 games behind the Giants who were the wild card leaders.

After the break the Rockies continued to roll by taking 3 out of 4 in Petco Park, scoring 21 runs in their 3 wins. On July 20th, they came home to beat Arizona again, and for the first time led the Wild Card race by .5 games over the Giants. By that Friday with the Giants coming into Coors Field, the Rockies were 1 game up, before taking 2 out of 3 against the Giants to go 2 up. The Rockies finished the 20 game stretch at 54-44 going 13-7 to continue moving up. The Rockies were about to embark on two swings to the east coast where 17 of the next 24 would be on the road.

First stop was New York, where the Rockies bullpen uncharacteristically blew a lead in the 8th inning of the first game when Fernando Tatis hit a pinch hit grand slam off Franklin Morales after Juan Rincon issued 3 walks (the last one intentional). The Rockies then were shut out in the next two games, before salvaging the final game. The Rockies would also win the next 4 in a row, sweeping Cincinnati and taking the opener in Philadelphia, before dropping the final two games. The Rockies came home and took 5 of 7 games against the Cubs and Pirates, before heading to the East Coast for the final time in the Regular Season. After dropping the first two in Miami to the Marlins, the Rockies won the last game in Florida and swept the Nationals. Now the Rockies were 68-53, 48-21 since June 3rd.

The next stretch was good and bad, 17 of their next 20 were at home, but the first 10 were against the Giants and Dodgers. They were also now 2 games ahead of the Giants and 3.5 games behind the Dodgers.

The Rockies lost the opener of the four game series to the Giants as Tulowitzki came down with the flu before the game, and Aaron Cook had to leave the game because of arm soreness. On Saturday night, the Rockies overcame a 6-1 early deficit to win game two rather easily 14-11. Sunday's game in sweltering heat went to the Rockies and then came the finale on Monday, August 24th, probably the most exciting game of the season and one that was reminiscent of the tiebreaker game in 2007.

The Giants manufactured a first inning run, and Barry Zito walked in a run for the Rockies in the 5th. The score remained 1-1 until the top of the 14th, although there were several situations in the late innings that could have produced the game winner for either team. Adam Eaton gives up 3 runs on 2 triples and a walk as the Giants lead 4-1. The Rockies immediately get 3 of their first four hitters on before Adam Eaton is forced to bat because the Rockies have no more hitters to spare. To complicate matters, Carlos Gonzalez had cut himself with a steak knife two days before and Dexter Fowler hit a foul ball off his knee before being issued a walk to lead off the inning, and can barely run. Adam Eaton is given the take sign for the entire at-bat by Jim Tracy figuring he'd take a strike out over a potential double play without getting Ryan Spilborghs up to bat. Eaton is given a 5 pitch walk to drive in the 2nd run and bring up Spilborghs with still one out. Spilborghs drives the the second pitch to right center, which was certainly going to tie up the game, but the ball continued to sail into the Rockies bullpen for a walk-off grand slam.

The Rockies win the next game also in extra innings against the Dodgers, closing to within two games of the West Leaders and taking a 4 game lead on the Wild Card, but then have their longest losing streak since Jim Tracy took over losing the next 5. When the dust settled on August 30th, the Rockies found themselves tied for the wild card, and back to a 6 game deficit against the Dodgers.

When September dawned, the Rockies came home and got busy, winning 9 of 10 ont their homestand, and winning the first game of their final long road trip. Once more they closed to two games of the Dodgers, and had stretched their Wild Card lead to 5.5 games over the Giants and 8.5 over the Braves, who would eventually become their closest competitor for the Wild Card.

But the Rockies would drop the next 4 including 2 more to the Giants, before Jorge De La Rosa pitched his masterpiece against Matt Cain, throwing 8 shutout innings, before the Rockies had to hold on 4-3 to salvage one game in the final 6 at AT&T Park. The Rockies left San Francisco 3.5 up on the Giants, but 5 games in back of the Dodgers. After a final stop in Phoenix, taking 2 of those 3 the Rockies returned home looking to capture their 3rd postseason berth and 2nd in 3 years.

The Padres slowed them down a little bit, taking 2 of the 3, before the Rockies took 2 of 3 against the Cardinals, culminating with a spectacular play by Clint Barmes to finish off the Sunday game. But the Braves were charging hard, the Dodgers were looking for one more win to capture the West, and the Rockies looked like they were pressing a little bit.

And there was one week to go.

While the Rockies were off on Monday, the Braves won their 7th in a row to close within 2 games of the Rockies at 86-70 and opened a season ending homestand against Florida and woeful Washington. It would turn out turn out to be the Braves' last win of the season. Meanwhile the Dodgers lost their final game in Pittsburgh, and 3rd out of 4 games in the series, and headed to San Diego.

On Tuesday, while the Marlins beat the Braves, the Rockies blew a 3 run lead in the 9th to the Brewers, only to win it dramatically in the 11th on Chris Iannetta's pinch hit home run. Magic number was down to 3. Meanwhile the Dodgers lost again to San Diego.

On Wednesday, the Rockies pounded the Brewers 10-6 while the Braves lost again to the Marlins, and the Dodgers incredibly lost for the 4th time in a row avoiding capturing the NL West Crown on the road. The Rockies clinched a tie for the Wild Card, but now had a chance to win the NL West by winning the final 4 games--3 against the Dodgers. No more scoreboard watching needed.

The Rockies took care of business on Thursday at home easily beating the Brewers 9-2 to capture the West, then went into Los Angeles and won the first game of the series on Friday night and were incredibly one game behind the Dodgers, the Closest they had been to first place since the first week of the season.

But it was not to be. The Rockies were in a pitchers duel, when Jorge De La Rosa had to leave in the 4th inning because of a groin pull, and Jose Contreras pitched a couple of nice innings. But the Rockies imploded in the 7th inning giving up one more 5 run inning and losing the game 5-0. They finished the season Sunday with a 5-3 loss, mostly with 2nd stringers on both sides, and players who would not be going to the postseason.

The Rockies finished the season 92-70 a franchise record; only 3 games behind the Dodgers in the West, and the 3rd best record in the National League, one game behind the Phillies, and one game ahead of the Cardinals. But they won the wild card position by 4 games over the Giants, 5 over the Marlins and 6 over the Braves.

They also captured their 2nd postseason berth in 3 years, had their first winning road record and finished 72-38 after being 12 games under 500 on June 3rd.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Weekly Race In Review September 28-October 4

The Rockies finished the regular season by winning the first 4 games of the week, before falling on Saturday and finishing up with a meaningless loss on Sunday. For the week they were 4-2 and completed the season with a Franchise Best 92-70.

Results:
9/29 ROCKIES 7 Brewers 5 11 inn.
9/30 ROCKIES 10 Brewers 6
10/1 ROCKIES 9 Brewers 2
9/25 ROCKIES 4 Dodgers 3
9/26 Dodgers 5 ROCKIES 0
9/27 Dodgers 5 ROCKIES 3

The Dodgers were 2-4 and ended up finishing 3 games ahead of the Rockies. The other two National League playoff teams, the Phillies went 3-4, while the Cardinals finished up 1-5. Among the other former Wild Card competitors the Giants finished up strong at 5-1, Marlins 4-2 and the Braves lost their last 6 in a row and finished 1-6.

Just for the record the Rockies won the Wild Card Race by 4 games over the Giants, 5 over the Marlins and 6 over the Braves.



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DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN: The Rockies head into the Postseason headed to Philadelphia just as in 2007, when the Rockies swept the Phillies en route to the National League Pennant. The only difference being in 2007, the Rockies had a 4-3 regular season edge over the Phillies while this year the Phillies were 4-2 vs. the Rockies.

Day Games In Philly Again

Game times have been announced for the first 3 games in the NLDS.

The two games in Philadelphia will start at 12:37 PM or 2:30 PM in Philadelphia. The Saturday night game in Denver will be at 7:37 PM.

Although these are the slots I expected, once again the AL will be featured in the Prime time slots on the East Coast, and force the Phillies and Rockies to play in the late afternoon autumn shadows.

Saturday, October 3, 2009

Wild Card--Headed to Philly

The Dodgers finally clinched the NL West 5-0 win over the Rockies which finalizes the Division Playoffs for the National League. After tomorrow's game the Rockies will head to Philadelphia to start the Playoffs in Philadelphia against the defending World Champion Phillies. The last time these two teams met in the Postseason, the Rockies swept the Phillies on their way to the World Series.

The Dodgers meanwhile will host the Cardinals in the other Division series starting Wednesday.

THE 90 FACTOR: I mentioned over the past couple of months that the target for wins that the Rockies needed to make the playoff was 90. With one game left the most wins 2nd place Florida or San Francisco will have is 88. In the American League the same is true of Texas. The 90 factor remains a good target for postseason play.

FALLING SHORT, BUT STILL A GREAT RUN: The Rockies have had a 72-37 record since June 3rd, but will fall at least 1 game short of making up the 15.5 games the Dodgers led them by at that point. The 72-37 record was 9 games better in the National League as the 2nd best team--Florida Marlins compiled a 62-45 record over the same period.

HOT ROX: Despite the Loss, the Rockies are the only National League Playoff team that will have a winning record in the last 10 games of the season. The Rockies are 6-3 in their past 9, while the Dodgers are 3-6. Meanwhile the Cardinals are 2-7 and the Phillies are 3-6.

NL Playoffs Simplified

The Cardinals lost earlier this afternoon to the Brewers 5-4 which gave them the 3rd seed for the Playoffs. This means they will be going on the road for the NLDS.
The Phillies lost to the Marlins this afternoon which clinches the 2nd seed for the playoffs.

The Phillies could tie the Dodgers for the 1st seed, however the Dodgers have a better head to head record against the Phillies

This means the Cardinals will go to the NL West Champion on Wednesday and Thursday, while the Phillies will host the Wild Card team. One of those teams will be the Rockies, the other will be the Dodgers. Whichever team wins the West will have the home field advantage if they advance to the NLCS.

If the Rockies don't win both remaining games against the Dodgers the Dodgers will win the West and the Rockies will open all of their series on the road.

A Word About Dan O'Dowd

One of the overlooked heroes of this year's Rockies Playoff team, was the master architect, Dan O'Dowd, just completing his 10th year as General Manager. After unsuccessfully trying for the first few years to acquire free agent pitching to be successful, he turned to another method, building a nucleus of young players from within, knowing it would take a few years to come to reality, and as they reached free agent status, he would have others coming up behind them as they moved on. This was a formula that had been successful in other mid-market towns, notably in Pittsburgh for a short time in the late 80's and early 90's.

One factor that wasn't O'Dowd's idea was the Humidor which came to Coors Field in 2002 and had a positive affect on the pitching. Runs and Home Runs were reduced. At the same time, O'Dowd seemed to search for pitchers who could throw sinkerballs effectively which resulted in more ground balls than before. The Rockies also had heavy investment in the Latin baseball program resulting in some successful acquisions like Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales and Manuel Corpas.

Probably the most important think O'Dowd has to do is create the chemistry of the parts. When Brad Penny was available in August, the Rockies reportedly quickly passed on him because of his reputation in the clubhouse not being a good fit. On the other hand, adding Jason Giambi gave a big boost to the players not only with his bat but his demeanor with his teammates and in the Clubhouse, as evidenced by his enthusiasm in the dugout seen during the games. You can have all the great talent in the world, but it doesn't always win for you.

O'Dowd has also taken his lumps via criticism of his trades. Many of his early trades were for young talent that would need to be developed. The only trade of consequence in the first few years was the Acquisition of Brian Fuentes and 2 other players from the Mariners in the winter of 2001-02. Many of the other trades were stepping stones to build the eventual competitive club.

Omar Quintanilla was the first of the current players that was traded for in July, 2005 along with Eric Byrnes for Joe Kennedy and Jay Witasik. In December of that O'Dowd picked up a backup catcher Yorvit Torrealba from the Mariners for Marcos Carvajal.

Last winter Jason Marquis was acquired from the Cubs for Luis Vizcaino.

Probably the most controversial trade O'Dowd has ever made came last Winter. Matt Holliday was heading into his final year before free agency, and Holliday and his agent Scott Boros, who is known for not agreeing to deals before free agency, never counteroffer a potential 4 year deal O'Dowd had offered the year before. It was apparent to me that Holliday's value would never be higher than it was last winter. Waiting until the trade deadline this year would have been risky. So O'Dowd did what he needed to do, despite knowing that he and the owners, the Monfort Brothers would be roundly criticized for it. Two of the three players immediately made huge contributions to the team. Huston Street has become a lights out closer and Carlos Gonzalez has a huge role in this year's offense, and the trade was somewhat Vindicated as the fans last weekend gave Holliday a mixed reception last weekend, when he first visited Coors Field in a visitor's uniform.

In the postseason clinching game 13 players participated--12 of them were home grown--drafted by the Rockies and brought up through their system. That's a testament to the strong scouting, and minor-league development and General Managers staff that O'Dowd has put together over his 10 year tenure.

There will be more controversial trades coming up possibly after this year's season ends, but there's one thing O'Dowd should do tomorrow, before the playoffs start--Extend Jim Tracy's contract beyond this season. He has proven he deserves a couple years to see if he can build on this season.

Road Warriors

The Rockies beat the Dodgers 4-3 Friday night and in the process won their 41st road game. It marks the first time in Franchise History that the Rockies have had a winning Season on the road. Their previous best was a 39-42 record in 2007. They had already surpassed that mark with their last win in Arizona.

The Rockies won their 5th straight game their 5th winning streak of 5 or more during this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez completed the season with 198 Strikeouts, just 12 short of Pedro Astacio's all-time Rockies record of 210. He struck out Manny Ramirez 3 times on Friday. Jorge De La Rosa who pitches Saturday has 189 Strikeouts for the season and needs 10 to surpass Jimenez and 11 to get to 200. Jimenez also picked up his 15th win of the Season. Jimenez did set the record for the lowest ERA by a starting pitcher at 3.47 breaking Joe Kennedy's 2004 record of 3.66 in 27 starts. His second half ERA is at an incredible 3.07

The last time the Rockies were within 1 game of 1st place in the West was on April 11th after 5 games when they were 3-2 and trailed the Padres by 1/2 game.


WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
The Rockies can still end the season as the 1st, 2nd or 4th seed. They are currently tied with the Phillies at 92-68, but if they both win their final two, the Phillies will gain the #1 Seed as they have a winning record against the Rockies this year. The Dodgers can be either the 1st seed by winning one of the remaining two games or the 4th seed by losing two. Dodgers took the season series against the Phillies. The Cardinals will need to win their final two and the Phillies lose both to gain the #2 seed. They cannot get the #1 Seed.

So here's how it stacks up:
#1 Seed--a. Dodgers if they win the West
b. Phillies if they win both and Rockies win Division
c. Rockies if they win the West and Phillies lose 1 game.
#2 Seed a. Phillies if Dodgers win the West and Phillies win 1 game or Cardinals lose 1.
b. Rockies if they win Division and the Phillies win both games.
c. Cardinals if Phillies lose 2 and Cardinals win both (Regardless of West Winner)
#3 Seed a. Cardinals if Phillies win 1 or Cardinals lose 1.
b. Phillies if Cardinals win both and Phillies lose both.
#4 Seed a. Rockies if they lose 1
b. Dodgers if they lose 2

The Rockies will host the first two games if they Win the west, or go on the Road most likely to Philadelphia if they lose one of the last two.

The other 3 National League playoff teams lost on Friday night and remain in slumps. The Dodgers lost their 5th game in a row for the 1st time all season and have lost 7 of their last 9. The Phillies lost their 2nd in a row, and 7 of their last 11. The Cardinals blew a 6-0 lead giving up 12 runs in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. They've now lost 6 of their last 8, and are 7-11 since September 11th. Meanwhile the Rockies have won 6 of their last 7 and 10 of their last 14. At least one of the other 3 teams will have to break out of their losing ways next week.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

***

IT'S ROCKTOBER AGAIN!!!!!!

ROCKIES 9 Brewers 2



Aaron Cook 8 innings and gives up one run on a solo home run to Ryan Braun. Cook only gave up 4 hits, and 1 walk, in an impressive tune up for the postseason.

Rockies win franchise-best 91st win to clinch the playoffs, but still have a shot for more. NL West Title and a Home field advantage in the first series are at stake as the Rockies go to LA to finish the Regular Season.

Final Home Record 51-30, 42-16 .724 since June 1st.

Final Record against the Central Division 31-11, 18-5 at home, and 28-3 since June 3rd.