Thursday, October 8, 2009

.500 means One out of Two

Another misinterpreted stat: A lot has been made out of the fact the Rockies aren't very good against Lefthanded starters, but they seemed to ignore the fact that the Rockies were .500 against Left handers at 26-26. They seem to imply that the Rockies lose all the time to lefthanders, when the truth is for every 2 starts the Rockies have against lefthanders they win 1. And true to form they pulled out today's game against Lefthander Cole Hamels, who they have had a lot of success against. This brings the series to Denver for two games, probably in the cold weather in the 30's as I'm expecting the Rockies and Phillies to play very late on Sunday night (8:30-9:00 PM Mountain), especially if all four series are still going that day. It is certain that 3 will be going, and the Cardinals have two chances to get the Dodgers to a fourth game.

Best 3 out of 5 series are difficult because even the first loss can snowball you out of the playoffs pretty quickly. Winning one on the road in the first two games is especially key, because no National League team has come back from a 2-0 deficit in the Divisional Series. The Rockies showed the grit we've seen all season by holding on to win today. Although it really could have been a blowout, if the Rockies had been able to capitalize with one more key hit with the bases loaded in the 7th and 8th innings. But give some of the credit to the much-maligned Phillies bullpen (although technically 3 of today's relievers have been primarily starters for the regular season.)

So now the question becomes, who will be the Phillies starters in Games 3 and 4. Rockies will go with Jason Hammel, no relation to Cole Hamels on Saturday night, and are likely to use Jason Marquis on Sunday. UPDATE: Charlie Manuel is looking at Blanton who pitched Thursday and Pedro Martinez as the Game 3 starter. J.A. Happ who left the game after getting hit by Seth Smith is unlikely to pitch game 3 but may start game 4. A postponement of either game, might move Game 4 to a rematch between Jimenez and Lee, in Game 4 on Monday, rather than Game 5 on Tuesday.

So with a day off tomorrow, the Rockies come home after doing what they need to do, and the Phillies needing to do the same thing here with their 3rd and 4th starters (whoever they are.)

Phillies are 48-33 on the Road this year, but 7-10 on their last two road trips of the season, Rockies are 51-30 at home and 42-16 since June 3rd.

No comments:

Post a Comment