Sunday, July 23, 2017

Even Steven

The Rockies hit the Century Mark in games played today, and have now played 50 at home (31-19) and 50 on the Road  (27-23).   This compares to the Dodgers who will hit the Century Mark on Monday, with 55 Home games and 45 Road Games,  and the D-Backs on Tuesday will be 53-47 in Home and Away games.  The Dodgers however have a better record on the road than either of the other two teams at 27-18, but the Rockies at one point were  24-10 before their 3-13 slide on the Road.

The Rockies will also be on the road this week while the Dodgers remain at home.  The D-Backs play three at home and then follow the Rockies into St. Louis next weekend embarking on a 10-game road trip.  The Dodgers will hit 60 home games next Sunday before playing an August Schedule of 19 Road and 8 home games including two trips into the Snake Pit in Phoenix. From Aug 1 to Sep 3 the Dodgers play 22 of 30 on the road, at which point they will also be Even Steven at 68-68.   Everyone will be even after 162 games ;-)

WILD CARD ADVANTAGE:  The 7 teams currently in the Wild Card race with the Rockies all lost today.  (The Cubs moved into a percentage point lead over the Brewers, and are now the Division Leader.)  The Rockies are now in the Home Wild Card position, 1 game ahead of the D-Backs, with Milwaukee now 5.5 behind the Rockies (4.5 out of Wild Card).  Everyone else is at least 8 in back of the Rockies.

FLOODGATES:  The Rockies drew over 40,000 fans to each of the three Pirate games and 4 of the 6  games on the Homestand.  In 6 games they drew 244,335 and after 50 dates have drawn 1,878,586 averaging 37,572.  At this pace they will draw over  3,000,000 for the first time since 2001.






Thursday, July 20, 2017

How Do You Like Me Now?!

Baseball is a cyclical game.  It can have it's ups and downs.  If you break the season out into 16 game stretches, (and 17 leading into the halfway point), the Rockies hit the 60% mark yesterday.

It's interesting to see the results

Decile Wins Losses Runs Opp Runs Run Diff
1st 10 6 54 62 -8
2nd 10 6 98 83 15
3rd 11 5 96 68 28
4th 10 6 89 52 37
5th* 6 11 73 111 -38
6th 9 7 105 86 19
Total 56 41 515 462 53

As you can see other than the 5th Decile, the Rockies have consistently won about 10 out of 16 games in each 16 game stretch.   In the first 16 games they were struggling on offense, and the pitching carried them.  The run production was fairly consistent in the 2nd-4th, and 6th deciles, although in the 6th, they scored nearly half their runs in the past 4 games.   However, pitching side has been all over the place with a low of 52 and a high of 111.

If they remain on the 10-6 pace the rest of the way, they will finish at 96-66.   It's a respectable pace and  should get them in the Wild Card Game.

TRADE DEADLINE:  The trade deadline approaches and as teams make moves, the focus is on the Rockies lack of moves.   I'm fine with that.  I'm not saying the Rockies could win the World Series with what they have, but they certainly don't want to trade a lot of prospects to get past the Wild Card Game with no guarantee against likely the Dodgers in a five game series. \

But let's look at some reality, the Rockies have 6 certain free agents not including Greg Holland who could exercise his 15 million option for 2018, and the Rockies are not likely to trade him during the stretch drive. 

Carlos Gonzalez
Jake McGee
Tyler Chatwood
Jordan Lyles
Mark Reynolds
Ryan Hanigan

McGee has been solid in the Bullpen, as a 7th or 8th inning setup man for Holland. Hanigan has been a steady influence on the young pitching staff and pairs well with Tony Wolters.  Tyler Chatwood is currently on the DL and will probably be so through the trade deadline, and is the most veteran pitcher on the starting staff in terms of games started. 

This leaves Cargo, Reynolds and Lyles.  CarGo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump and could go on another tear down the stretch.  Is that more valuable to the Rockies or some other team?  It's clear that CarGo may be finished in Colorado after this season, as the abundance of outfielders, even with Desmond actually moving to first base next year, makes him expendable.  That's part of baseball. 

Reynolds has been a spark at 1st Base, and could be expendable, while Lyles probably has little value to a buyer and not much to a seller.  

Trading any of those players is unlikely for good value.  I'm not sure you mess with any of the starting hitters or starting pitchers.   So can you trade relief pitching for relief pitching?  Unlikely.

This leaves prospects, and I'm not inclined to give away prospects for a short term fix.  Unless there is a prospect that has interest from other teams and the Rockies have depth in the position, I would say to let it ride, and use the excess starters as relievers like Senzatela, Hoffman or Marquez.

OUT OF THE WEST:   The Rockies completed their second round of play against the NL West and are now at 29-21 in Division Play.  They play their next game in the West on September 1st when they host the D-Backs, and play all but  3 of the final 29 games in the West.  Meanwhile they play 9 against the NL Central (6 home), 8 against the AL Central (3 Home), and 19 against the NL East (10 Home) prior to September 1st.   

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Turn Around, Bright Eyes

The Rockies have been spiraling downward for about a month now, and last night for the first time since June 20th, recorded a win after a win.  The naysayers are talking about them falling out of the postseason, and it's still possible they could drop from the Wild Card altogether.

However there is a lot of baseball yet to be played.  The Cubs have won 4 straight games since the All-Star Break and have now closed to within 5.5 games of the Rockies, but are only 3.5 games behind the Division leader Brewers. They meet head to head next weekend.

It's easy to scoreboard watch, and panic, but the reality is the Rockies have to go out and win their game and then worry about the others.  Over the month long stretch (and I still maintain the slump goes back to late May, when there were signs of a slump but they managed to win after a couple of 3 game losing streaks,) the Rockies have done some irritating things that have led to their losses.

Pitching--Everyone talks about the walks, but the bigger problem is lack of clean innings where nobody gets on base.  There always seems to be traffic every inning which leads to stress pitching.   Even in their last two wins, there have been only 4 clean innings, while another inning only had 3 batters and included a Double play after a hit by pitch.   The Walks need to be cut down as well.

Hitting--Strikeouts need to be cut down severely The Rockies have struck out about 1 in 4 at bats, which is nearly 9 times a game.  Not putting the ball in play is one of the biggest reasons to not score.  Making contact has to be a big emphasis for the rest of the season.

Fielding--In the first 73 games, the Rockies committed errors in only 20 of them.  In the past 22 games they have committed an error in 11 of them going 3-8 in those games.


Friday, July 14, 2017

Let's Tell the Future Let's See How It's Been Done.

While we are in a lull period between the first and second halves, let's take a look at the reality of the season.

Had I told you on April 1st that the Rockies would be 52-39 at the All-Star Break, you would have been elated.  Had I also told you they would be third place in the NL West, you might have been a little disappointed, but if I also told you they were firmly in the 2nd Wild Card spot by 7.5 games, you would be pricing playoff tickets (maybe).

Although the Rockies have had a great first half, the Rockies are not in as favorable position with the prediction sites, notably Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight.com.  Much of this as far as I can tell is related to past performance, and run differential.  The Rockies are currently +42 in run differential.  The D-Backs are +102, but that has only gained them 1 more win than the Rockies (although they have played 2 fewer games.)  The Dodgers are +163 and have 8 more wins than the D-Backs.

The Rockies also have five off-days in the next month and 7 prior to September 1st when they go head to head agains the NL West.  They will also be able to bring up additional players to help out with the bullpen on September 1st.  They play consecutive games 6, 6, 3, 6, 2, 10, and 9.

TRADE DEADLINE:  The next two weeks will have lots of talk about the trade deadline, and this year the Rockies will clearly be buyers, if they trade at all.   I expect that there will be a lot of talk about the top prospects including infielders Brendan Rogers and Ryan McMahon, who were recently showcased in the Futures Game.   The Rockies would be smart to hold onto the young pitching at least until the best contenders from the young guys emerge.  Tyler Chatwood is a free agent after this year, so if anyone is expendable, he could be.

COMEBACKS:  A lot of the "experts" are pretty much giving the NL West Title to the Dodgers, and it's a high percentage chance of it happening, but remember this, the Rockies fell a net of 10 games in 17 games, because it was so awful of a stretch for them while the Dodgers had a ridiculously hot at the same time.  They also played three head to head games with the Dodgers and lost all 3.  Over the course of 70+ games, the Rockies or the D-Backs could chip away at that  lead, if the Dodgers falter at all over an extended stretch.

Don't believe me, let's look at some history:

2007--On, July 1, following a 1-9 road trip and the Rockies were in 4th place, 8 games behind the then first-place Bud Black led San Diego Padres.  There were also 5 teams ahead of them for the single Wild Card spot, where the Rockies were 7 games behind the Dodgers.  A week later the Padres lead was closed to 5.5 games, and by August 3, they were 3.5 games behind 1st Place Arizona and 2 behind the Padres.  By August 23rd, they had fallen to 7.5 games behind Arizona and 4 behind the Wild Card Padres.  On September 10, they were 7 games behind Arizona and 3.5 behind the Padres.  From August 23 on they went 26-10 including winning 14 of the last 15 ball games.

  2009--On June 3rd, the Rockies stood in 5th place at 20-32, 15.5 games behind the Dodgers, and 9.5 games behind the Wild Card Cardinals.  By the All-Star Break about a month later, they had closed the Dodgers lead to 9, and were 2 games out of the Wild Card, now owned by the Giants.  The Rockies would go 45-29 the rest of the way, and finish only 3 games behind the Dodgers and winning the Wild Card, by 4 games over the Giants.

Other teams:
The 2009 Minnesota twins went from 7 games down with 26 games to play to tie the Tigers and then win a Tiebreaker game.

The 2007 Phillies were 7 games out with 17 to play after losing two games at home to the Rockies. Their 13-4 finish gave them the NL East title by 1 game.

The 1995 Seattle Mariners were 12.5 games out on August 15th and had a one game playoff with the Angels to win the AL West Title.  (1995 was a strike shortened season)

The point is, don't give up yet.




Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Hey Now You're an All-Star

Tonight is the 88th All-Star Game and for the first time since 2002 it doesn't count.   Since the tie in 2002 which led to the designation of the All-Star game as determining which league gets Home Field Advantage in the World Series.  This designation has gone to the American League 11 of the 14 times the game "counted" and 22 of the last 29 (with one tie), but the NL leads the Series 43-42-2, because of domination in the 50's to early 80's.

In reality, the All-Star Game only "counted" three times, when the series went seven games in 2011, 2014 and 2016, however the team with the advantage won only one of those games--the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

So the All-Star game has returned to a pure exhibition, showcasing the best players in the sport.  Baseball has always lent itself to having a real All-Star Game because it's not necessary to play together for a long time to have an effectively good game.  NHL, NBA, and NFL "All-Star" games just seem to be a different game altogether.

The Rockies for the first time are sending four players, two starters,  OF Charlie Blackmon and 3b Nolan Arenado, as well as 2b D.J. LeMahieu and Closer Greg Holland.  Blackmon also appeared in the Home Run Derby, losing to Cody Bellinger in the first round.

Personally, I have attended two All-Star Games, 1976 at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia and, 1998 at Coors Field.   It's a special experience.  Enjoy the return to the showcase, and may the Rockies do well.

 

Monday, July 10, 2017

I'm Walking on Sunshine (and Don't it Feel Good!)

So far this season there have been 14 weeks of the season, in 12 of those 14 weeks, the Rockies are 50-29.  In the other two, the Rockies are 2-10.

Even this past week the Rockies went 4-3 at home, but finished on such a high note as Denver Native and one of four Rockies Rookies Pitchers Kyle Freeland stood on the hill at Coors field in the 9th inning doing something that no other Rockies pitcher has EVER done, and something only one other pitcher period has done, and that is to take a no-hitter into the 9th inning.  Melky Cabrera hit a ball over Nolan Arenado's head with one out in the 9th to break it up, but the Rockies finished with their 3rd 1 hitter in their history to go along with Ubaldo Jimenez' No-Hitter in Atlanta in 2010.   Tyler Chatwood and Gonzalez Germen combined on a one-hitter in June, 2016 at Dodger Stadium.  Jason Jennings, Tom Martin and Brian Fuentes combined on the only other Rockies one-hitter at Coors Field in June, 2006.   Freeland also had a career high 9 strikeouts, while walking 3 and hitting Jose Abreu.

On the other side of the ball, the offense for the second time this weekend scored double digit runs, and Pat Valaika knocked in 5 runs.  Freeland even got into the mix by getting an RBI single to cap the scoring in the 7th inning.

After the dismal three weeks leading up to this game, the euphoria of this win could propel the Rockies into the 2nd half of the season starting Friday in New York.

BEST FIRST HALF EVER:   The Rockies head into the All-Star Break with their best record ever at 52-39.  In 2010, at the break 49-39, which was 2nd best.

STILL ON PACE FOR POSTSEASON:  The Rockies go into the break with the 5th best record in MLB, but the 3rd best in the NL West.  Although the Rockies are 9.5 games behind the Red-Hot Dodgers, the Rockies only trail the D-Backs for the Host Wild Card by 2 games and are ahead of the Cubs and Cardinals for the Visiting Wild Card team by 7.5 games.  Contrast this to the AL where 4 games over .500 will get you into the Wild Card game, but 10 other teams are within 7.5 games of the Wild Card slots.  (That's everyone in the league who's not winning their divison at the moment, folks).

OVERABUNDANCE OF PITCHING:  It seems like a strange thing to say, but with Chad Bettis starting rehab in Hartford this week, and Tyler Anderson returning sometime in August, the Rockies will soon have 8 starting pitchers not counting Chris Rusin and Jordan Lyles who are converted starters in the bullpen.  With everyone but Chatwood and Bettis having options, it will be interesting to see what five settle in for the home stretch rotation.  It's clear all 8 will be on the roster in September, as part of this team barring any injuries.

INJURIES:  All teams have injuries, so it's no excuse, but it seems like the injury that hurt the Rockies the most was Gerardo Parra.  He went on the DL on June 7, but the fact that he could not make it back until this past Friday hurt a lot more when Carlos Gonzalez who hasn't been hitting, went out on June 21st and missed the entire 9 game road trip.   Raimel Tapia has been great at the bat and on base, but sometimes was an adventure in the outfield.

SECOND HALF SCHEDULE:  Rockies Home/Road split in the 2nd half is 36-35 in the 2nd half, while the Dodgers have 31-41 and D-Backs have 33-40    Starting in August, the Dodgers play 36 of their final 57 games on the road, including two road trips to three cities, both including East Coast and West Coast Teams.  Incidentally, the Dodgers have not been on an airplane since Father's Day, when they flew back from Cincinnati.  Their only five home games since then have been to Anaheim and San Diego on buses.  Not surprising they've continued to stay hot.  They are in the middle of  streak where they are playing 41 of 64 at home.   That's half their home schedule in that span vs. a little over a quarter of their road schedule.

Monday, July 3, 2017

I'm on my way Home Sweet home

On Monday, May 15th the Rockies were 24-15 and embarking on a string of 45 games where 31 were on the road.  They held their own going 24-21, but as we all know it could have been better.  they started out 23-11 before losing 10 of their last 11.

The problem is that the Dodgers went 33-13 and D-Backs 31-13 (Both over .700) during this stretch. The Dodgers had 25 home games to 21 Road Games and now have 44-40.  D-Backs have 45-38 advantage in Home games, Rockies are 37-47 for Home games.   It doesn't help that the Dodgers and D-Backs are winning 3 out of 4 at home, while the Rockies are only winning 3 out of 5.

The Dodgers continue to have a favorable schedule in July with only 7 road games (5 left after playing San Diego this weekend.)  So at the end of July, the Dodgers will have played 60 at home and 45 on the Road, This means the Dodgers play 36 of their final 57 on the road.  The D-Backs have a more balanced schedule in July, with 11 home games and 12 Road.

The Rockies meanwhile come home and play 13 of the next 16 at home, However for July in total they play 11 on the Road.

The Rockies showed signs of coming out of their two week funk this weekend.  Chatwood and Marquez pitched well enough to win, but errors did them in for the most part.  The bats still need to get hot, and maybe being home will help with that.

Although the Rockies are still 6 games ahead of the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card Spot, the goal is still to win the NL West.  If they played in any other division, they would be winning 3 of them and tied for a fourth, but they are in the NL West and have to start winning again and not worry so much about the Dodgers or D-Backs until September 1st when they play each other again.  The Rockies have an opportunity to gain on LA and Arizona as they play each other in a 3 game set starting Tuesday.  They will play again in Arizona August 8-10 and 29-31, prior to the Rockies meeting either of them again.  The D-Backs finish play against LA and Colorado on September 14th, while the Rockies and Dodgers will finish out the season at Coors on Sept 29-Oct 1.

WINNERS AND LOSERS:   Determining Winning and Losing teams is fluid, but the Rockies start a stretch where they play 19 straight against currently losing teams.  The Rockies are 24-20 against teams that are .500 or better, and 24-13 against teams that are below .500.  Of their remaining games 53 are against losing teams and 25 against winning teams.   If you include teams that are withing 4 games of .500 as Winners, the Rockies are 27-24 vs. Winners, 21-12 vs. Losers and 42-35 Remaining (Losers/Winners).