How Do You Like Me Now?!

Baseball is a cyclical game.  It can have it's ups and downs.  If you break the season out into 16 game stretches, (and 17 leading into the halfway point), the Rockies hit the 60% mark yesterday.

It's interesting to see the results

Decile	Wins	Losses	Runs	Opp Runs	Run Diff
1st	10	6	54	62	-8
2nd	10	6	98	83	15
3rd	11	5	96	68	28
4th	10	6	89	52	37
5th*	6	11	73	111	-38
6th	9	7	105	86	19
Total	56	41	515	462	53

As you can see other than the 5th Decile, the Rockies have consistently won about 10 out of 16 games in each 16 game stretch.   In the first 16 games they were struggling on offense, and the pitching carried them.  The run production was fairly consistent in the 2nd-4th, and 6th deciles, although in the 6th, they scored nearly half their runs in the past 4 games.   However, pitching side has been all over the place with a low of 52 and a high of 111.

If they remain on the 10-6 pace the rest of the way, they will finish at 96-66.   It's a respectable pace and  should get them in the Wild Card Game.

TRADE DEADLINE:  The trade deadline approaches and as teams make moves, the focus is on the Rockies lack of moves.   I'm fine with that.  I'm not saying the Rockies could win the World Series with what they have, but they certainly don't want to trade a lot of prospects to get past the Wild Card Game with no guarantee against likely the Dodgers in a five game series. \

But let's look at some reality, the Rockies have 6 certain free agents not including Greg Holland who could exercise his 15 million option for 2018, and the Rockies are not likely to trade him during the stretch drive. 

Carlos Gonzalez

Jake McGee

Tyler Chatwood

Jordan Lyles

Mark Reynolds

Ryan Hanigan

McGee has been solid in the Bullpen, as a 7th or 8th inning setup man for Holland. Hanigan has been a steady influence on the young pitching staff and pairs well with Tony Wolters.  Tyler Chatwood is currently on the DL and will probably be so through the trade deadline, and is the most veteran pitcher on the starting staff in terms of games started. 

This leaves Cargo, Reynolds and Lyles.  CarGo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump and could go on another tear down the stretch.  Is that more valuable to the Rockies or some other team?  It's clear that CarGo may be finished in Colorado after this season, as the abundance of outfielders, even with Desmond actually moving to first base next year, makes him expendable.  That's part of baseball. 

Reynolds has been a spark at 1st Base, and could be expendable, while Lyles probably has little value to a buyer and not much to a seller.  

Trading any of those players is unlikely for good value.  I'm not sure you mess with any of the starting hitters or starting pitchers.   So can you trade relief pitching for relief pitching?  Unlikely.

This leaves prospects, and I'm not inclined to give away prospects for a short term fix.  Unless there is a prospect that has interest from other teams and the Rockies have depth in the position, I would say to let it ride, and use the excess starters as relievers like Senzatela, Hoffman or Marquez.

OUT OF THE WEST:   The Rockies completed their second round of play against the NL West and are now at 29-21 in Division Play.  They play their next game in the West on September 1st when they host the D-Backs, and play all but  3 of the final 29 games in the West.  Meanwhile they play 9 against the NL Central (6 home), 8 against the AL Central (3 Home), and 19 against the NL East (10 Home) prior to September 1st.