Let's Tell the Future Let's See How It's Been Done.

While we are in a lull period between the first and second halves, let's take a look at the reality of the season.

Had I told you on April 1st that the Rockies would be 52-39 at the All-Star Break, you would have been elated.  Had I also told you they would be third place in the NL West, you might have been a little disappointed, but if I also told you they were firmly in the 2nd Wild Card spot by 7.5 games, you would be pricing playoff tickets (maybe).

Although the Rockies have had a great first half, the Rockies are not in as favorable position with the prediction sites, notably Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight.com.  Much of this as far as I can tell is related to past performance, and run differential.  The Rockies are currently +42 in run differential.  The D-Backs are +102, but that has only gained them 1 more win than the Rockies (although they have played 2 fewer games.)  The Dodgers are +163 and have 8 more wins than the D-Backs.

The Rockies also have five off-days in the next month and 7 prior to September 1st when they go head to head agains the NL West.  They will also be able to bring up additional players to help out with the bullpen on September 1st.  They play consecutive games 6, 6, 3, 6, 2, 10, and 9.

TRADE DEADLINE:  The next two weeks will have lots of talk about the trade deadline, and this year the Rockies will clearly be buyers, if they trade at all.   I expect that there will be a lot of talk about the top prospects including infielders Brendan Rogers and Ryan McMahon, who were recently showcased in the Futures Game.   The Rockies would be smart to hold onto the young pitching at least until the best contenders from the young guys emerge.  Tyler Chatwood is a free agent after this year, so if anyone is expendable, he could be.

COMEBACKS:  A lot of the "experts" are pretty much giving the NL West Title to the Dodgers, and it's a high percentage chance of it happening, but remember this, the Rockies fell a net of 10 games in 17 games, because it was so awful of a stretch for them while the Dodgers had a ridiculously hot at the same time.  They also played three head to head games with the Dodgers and lost all 3.  Over the course of 70+ games, the Rockies or the D-Backs could chip away at that  lead, if the Dodgers falter at all over an extended stretch.

Don't believe me, let's look at some history:

2007--On, July 1, following a 1-9 road trip and the Rockies were in 4th place, 8 games behind the then first-place Bud Black led San Diego Padres.  There were also 5 teams ahead of them for the single Wild Card spot, where the Rockies were 7 games behind the Dodgers.  A week later the Padres lead was closed to 5.5 games, and by August 3, they were 3.5 games behind 1st Place Arizona and 2 behind the Padres.  By August 23rd, they had fallen to 7.5 games behind Arizona and 4 behind the Wild Card Padres.  On September 10, they were 7 games behind Arizona and 3.5 behind the Padres.  From August 23 on they went 26-10 including winning 14 of the last 15 ball games.

  2009--On June 3rd, the Rockies stood in 5th place at 20-32, 15.5 games behind the Dodgers, and 9.5 games behind the Wild Card Cardinals.  By the All-Star Break about a month later, they had closed the Dodgers lead to 9, and were 2 games out of the Wild Card, now owned by the Giants.  The Rockies would go 45-29 the rest of the way, and finish only 3 games behind the Dodgers and winning the Wild Card, by 4 games over the Giants.

Other teams:
The 2009 Minnesota twins went from 7 games down with 26 games to play to tie the Tigers and then win a Tiebreaker game.

The 2007 Phillies were 7 games out with 17 to play after losing two games at home to the Rockies. Their 13-4 finish gave them the NL East title by 1 game.

The 1995 Seattle Mariners were 12.5 games out on August 15th and had a one game playoff with the Angels to win the AL West Title.  (1995 was a strike shortened season)

The point is, don't give up yet.