The Last Gasp

The Rockies performed a miracle in the 2007 season winning 13 of their last 14 games to get to the playoffs. But their march to the playoffs actually began a little earlier, August 24th to be exact, when they came back from a 5-1 deficit in the 9th inning to beat Washington 6-5. From their they went 26-10.

The Rockies will probably need to better that record if they realistically want to get back into the playoffs. 26-10 might do it (going retroactively to Saturday), when they had 36 games left. But that would only get them to 84-78. Might be enough, but I think they would need 28-8 or at least 86 wins.

There are a few obstacles within and outside their control that would also have a big effect.

First, the Rockies are only 8.5 games out but they are in 3rd place. They need to have the D-Backs and Giants to both lose enough to pass them. Those two teams face each other 6 times in September. This is not insurmountable as the Rockies in 2007 were in 4th place in the division, and 7th in the Wild Card race that they won.

Second, The Rockies face the D-Backs 6 times and Giants 7. In order to make a dent, they cannot lose ground to either team head to head, and must gain a couple of games, that means 4-2 or better against the D-Backs and 5-2 or better against the Giants. Ideally combined, they can go no worse than 10-3. In 2007, they went 17-3 against the 3 division teams ahead of them down the stretch 7-0 vs. the Dodgers; 6-1 vs. the Padres, and 4-2 vs. the Diamondbacks.

Third, the Rockies need the Dodgers and Padres to also beat the Giants and D-Backs. Giants play nobody outside the division in September, and the D-Backs have only 3 games against Pittsburgh outside the Division. With the Padres and Dodgers only a couple games behind the Rockies, the Rockies may have to contend with them as well, if they were to falter any. The divisional games means they will gain ground on somebody with a win, and lose ground on someone with a loss. It will be just as important for the Rockies to win against the Dodgers this weekend as well as the Padres in early September, giving them some cushion when they need those two teams to beat the Giants and D-Backs.

If the Rockies make some progress on this road trip in the next week, I will have an analysis of the race and the September schedules.

It would be nice to see the Rockies make a run again in September, although my gut feeling is that this team doesn't yet have that spark that they had in 2007 and 2009, but it's certainly not impossible for them to give us some excitement down the stretch.

What happened to the Season

It's early August and the Rockies season is pretty much over. 10 Games out with 50 games to play requires them to either win nearly all their games or have both Arizona and San Francisco collapse the rest of the season.

The injury to Juan Nicasio typifies the way the season has gone. From the first defensive play of the first spring training game, injuries have plagued the Rockies. The Rockies have used 43 players so far this year.

But the Rockies have no spark this year. Early on, they had some exceptional pitching but there has never been any sustained consistent hitting, over a long stretch. The bullpen seems in disrepair, and the Starting pitching has never really gotten in a groove.

This team is 45-59 since the end of April. There is little life in this team. The next two months should be spent evaluating what they have on the field, and making sure they have the right parts to start the 2012 Season.

Back on Track

The Rockies may have only gone 3-3 over the past week, but it's clear that their Hitting is starting to sizzle. After scoring 3 or less runs in 15 of 17 games, the Rockies have now had 5 or more runs in 8 of the last 9, a period in which they are 6-3.

The Rockies have found over the last several years that interleague play can be a big boost. Although the Rockies had their first inter-league game of the season last night, the rest of the division played 3 games in May while the Rockies were swept by the Brewers. Last night the NL went 4-10 against the Junior Circuit, with the Rockies, D-Backs, Cubs, and Nationals winning. I find myself rooting for the AL in the non-Rockies games, because we don't actually compete with the AL for playoff spots. Another reason I don't really like Interleague games.

The Rockies are now 29-8 at Home against the AL in the past 6 seasons and 49-30 overall.

Winning Streaks

The Rockies managed to hold on to a 6-5 win last night to get their 3rd winning streak of more than two games. The first two were their first two winning streaks of the year--a 4 and a 7 game winning streak en route to a 11-2 start.

Since then, the Rockies have won 2 consecutive games only twice, going 17-30 with 15 individual wins. Their longest losing streak this year has been 4 games (twice) and 3 games (twice).

If you can take a positive away from the winning streak drought, then you can take heart in the fact that nobody in the West or even the entire NL has run away with anything. Not one Major League team is over .600 going into Saturday's action. That has never been the case on June 10th, since before the Rockies came into the Major Leagues. This works in their favor if they are indeed in the middle of a turnaround.

Last night the Rockies strung together 6 consecutive singles scoring 4 runs and scored another on the 6th single in 8 batters. Just an example of how little hits can be productive. It also helped to have an error and a wild pitch, but contrast the game where they got 14 hits and only 1 Run on May 30th. In fact the Rockies over the past 3 games have had only 2 Home Runs both Solos, among their 40 hits scoring 23 runs. In the previous 9 games the Rockies scored a total of 16 runs with four home runs.

The Flip in the Standings

Exactly 4 weeks ago, the Rockies headed into San Francisco sporting a 4 game lead over the 2nd Place Giants. The Giants promptly swept the 3 game series and have been rolling since going 16-9 in the past month. The Rockies as we know have gone in the opposite direction, going 8-18 in the past 4 weeks.

Tonight the Rockies head into San Francisco, trailing the 1st Place Giants by 4.5 games. Although not a must win situation for the Rockies, it's imperative that they avoid being swept again. By Sunday, they could be either 1.5 games or 7.5 games behind the Giants depending on the results, and they will not see them again until September 15th.

It's J--imenez, U--baldo's N--ifty E--ffort!

Ok, so it's a new month and only one game, but it was great to see the old Ubaldo back. Getting his 2nd complete game of the season but only his first win.

It's hard to lose a shutout, and the Rockies only managed 3 runs on offense, but it's a win nonetheless.

An off day today, followed by 3 crucial games by the Bay. Juan Nicasio gets his 2nd start on Friday against Matt Cain.

STATS: The Rockies last won 3 games in a row April 13-15 at the tail end of their 7 game winning streak through Pittsburgh, New York and the first game against Chicago...The Rockies continue to score rather consistently during the first 8 innings, Ranging from 36 runs in the 1st Inning to 23 in the 8th, but still have only scored 3 runs in the 9th inning. Totals in inning order 36-30-25-30-29-32-34-23-3. Meanwhile the opponents are scattered from 17 to 36 runs in any given inning: 36-20-35-28-20-25-30-19-17...Only 13 of the Rockies first 55 games have been decided after the 6th inning. That means that 76% of the time you can turn off the game at the end of the 6th and know the decision...But wait, 5 of those games were tied going into the 7th inning and in 2 the team leading after 6 still won, so with 1 team leading after 6 innings you've known the outcome 88% of the time..The Rockies still have not had a walk-off win after 28 Home games...There have been 0 Grand Slams by the Rockies or their Opponents 1/3 of the way through the season...The Rockies have 10 3-Run, and 11 2-Run Homers to go with their 32 Solo Homers. That's 21 multi-run Homers vs. 32 Solo's.

Miserable May Ends 8-21

I've watched baseball for a long time, and I can never remember a team with so much promise having such a horrible month. I've seen bad teams have months like this, but this is hardly a bad team--or is it?

A lot of people are talking about turning the page to June, as if somehow magically with a new month comes new ability or luck. There is nothing that I've witnessed lately that indicates this team will play better. In fact, as much as I hate to say it, this team looks beat.

1. Gonzalez and Fowler collide in the outfield on Monday, letting a ball drop. This is not only fundamentally unsound, the fact that it happened 50 games into the season is inexcusable, and indicates lack of focus.

2. Troy Tulowitski is constantly chirping with the home plate umpires about bad calls, some warranted, but many are good pitches. This is not a leader, it's a chronic complainer. Man up and take the lead. Also a lack of focus.

3. Seth Smith overruns 2nd base with the play in front of him last week. Smith has been arguably one of a very few bright lights this season both in the field and at bat, but this is also showing a lack of focus.

4. Pitchers have very few "clean" innings. By that, I mean 1, 2, 3. They rely a lot on Double Plays to get them out of jams, but if the pitchers wouldn't constantly get into jams, especially with the significant rise in walks this past month. I'd say rarely do the Rockies have more than 2 defensive 1, 2, 3 innings in a game. In the meantime offensively, they seem to go 1,2,3--5 or 6 times a game.

There is absolutely no outward signs of life in the veterans or manager of this team. The one spark that I see is the exuberance of Eric Young, Jr, Chris Nelson, and a couple of the new pitchers they've brought up in the past week.

The season is not yet lost, but this team has to turn everything around quickly and that will be a daunting task. The saving grace is that no other team in the NL West has yet to run away yet. At this point last year the Rockies were also 4 games behind, but were at 27-24. In 2009, they were 20-29, 13.5 games behind and in 2007, they were 25-29 and 6.5 games out.

Bizarro World Continues

As the bizarre season of the Colorado Rockies continues, last night the bats gathered 14 hits against the Dodgers, resulting in err, ONE Run. Meanwhile the Dodgers put together 11 hits and managed to scrape out SEVEN runs.

The Rockies got at least two base runners on base in all but the 6th inning. In the first 3 innings, they had a runner get to at least 2nd base--in the 2nd and 3rd innings, they were there with ZERO outs. And of course no runs scored.

The only run came on a 2-out solo Home Run by Ty Wiggington in the 4th inning.

The Road Awaits...

The Rockies missed a chance to turn things around with 15 or 20 at home over the past 3 weeks. They crumbled further going a woeful 7-13 during that stretch.

Now they are faced with the prospect of turning things around while being on the road. Today starts a 9 game California swing to 3 NL West opponents, starting in LA. The Dodgers like the Rockies are 13-15 at Home. The Giants are 13-8 while the Padres are 9-20.

The Blowout

You knew the possibility existed. Bringing up a Double-A pitcher for a spot start was dangerous. You hope for decent start to tide you over, especially with the anemic offense the Rockies have been showing, but you also know it's possible it could be a blowout, especially going up against a pitcher who has been one of the best this season going 5-0, 1.98 ERA. The Rockies have made lesser pitchers look like Cy Young this year.

And it turned into a blowout, but not the way you were thinking. A 6 run first Tacos by the end of two innings and a dozen runs scored by the 4th, took a lot of pressure off of Juan Nicasio on Saturday night and he pitched a gem of a ball game getting a 15-4 win. The Rockies have now scored 27 runs in their past two victories, and only 18 in their last 7 losses.

Crazy game baseball.

Nicasio's brilliant outing, just addds more options to the starting pitching staff. The current rotation is Chacin, Hammel, Mortenson, and Jimenez, with Aaron Cook likely joining in sometime this week on the road. Esmil Rogers could come back soon also, which will give the Rockies a decision on Mortenson, as a starter or Greg Reynolds in long relief. It's quite odd to say that the Rockies strength is their starting pitching, but right now, that's the truth.

You had to feel great for Chris Iannetta last night, 4-5, 2 HR and 6 RBI. The guy has been doing little things to help this team all year, and it was great to see him come up big.

A word about the Buster Posey Collision: Much has been said and written about the collision Buster Posey took against Florida's Scott Cousins (video Here). Many are calling it a clean play, and I strongly disagree.

For one thing Posey was not blocking the plate. In fact no part of Posey's body at the time of the collision was on or over the plate. Cousins had plenty of room to slide away from the tag and touch the plate without going near Posey. Cousins was clearly headed toward Posey and not the plate. Unnecessary hit and unnecessary injury. There are plenty of instances where the catcher gives no room to the runner either intentionally (as in Ray Fosse vs. Pete Rose in the 1970 All-Star Game) or inadvertantly (as in the 2007 Tiebreaker game with Matt Holliday and Michael Barrett) where a collision could be warranted to get to the plate but this wasn't it.

Cousins was definitely wrong here and should be disciplined.

As for rule changes, I wouldn't protect catchers anymore than I would protect runners. Josh Hamilton hurt himself coming into the catcher earlier this season. Injuries can happen on either end of the collisions. The only way I would institute a rule change is to force the catcher to give the runner part of the plate and require a runner to avoid a head on collision by sliding on close plays, or avoiding a collision. Without both parties amending their approach, injuries will continue to happen.

Opportunities Lost

Hammel gives up ZERO Earned Runs...Jimenez throws a complete game two-hitter...Rockies get 16 hits in one game and twice take the lead in extra innings...De La Rosa throws a complete game giving up one earned run...

These are but a few examples of the bizarre way the Rockies are losing games this season. 7-17 for May is not a pretty sight. It wouldn't be so bad if they were getting beat, but they are throwing way too many games away. In Hammel's game Wednesday, Amezaga's error led to both D-Backs runs scoring. Granted it took a great catch by Chris Young to steal a tying home run from Ty Wiggington, but the fielding has really gone askew this month. So has the base running. So has the bullpen. And it goes without saying that the hitting hasn't been there all season.

The Rockies are taking steps to fix the problems--Morales, Paulino, and Lopez are now gone, so far with nothing in return. More shake-ups may be coming. I won't try to manage by blog, but I do see some possibilities:

1. Put Lindstrom in as the closer for awhile, until Street stops serving up home runs. Maybe even alternate them the rest of the season as setup and closer.

2. End the Giambi experiment. I like him a lot, and his presence has had a positive affect on the younger players, but the guy is taking up a spot that someone from Triple-A could use to help this team in the field or late inning hits, someone like the 2007 version of Seth Smith. Giambi has 6 Home Runs and 3 singles along with 12 K's in 40 AB's. He single-handedly won the game against the Phillies last week, but beyond that he's always up in a situation where you expect a Dinger, and that is just the wrong attitude for a team like this. Look where 12 solo home runs in a row got us. Last night a base hit would have been a big blow in that game.

3. Figure out what you want to do with Fowler. Make him a right-handed hitter, move him down in the line-up, send him back to the minors. Decide and stick to it. He's an enigma, horrible average, good OBP, horrible strikeout count, best hitter with RISP. I want to see him succeed, but it may not be with the Rockies.

The Rockies are quickly approaching a key stretch of the season where they will play 16 straight against the west including a 9 game road trip to California. If they snap out of their funk they could do some damage in the race. If they continue the slide they could be buried. They don't get another shot at the West after June 15th until Late July--but it's another 9 game road trip.

Coming From Behind

The Rockies have won games after trailing many times this season, most notably the 4 games in New York, when trailing by 2 or more in every game and sweeping the Mets. And on April 10th against Pittsburgh they rallied to beat the Pirates 6-5 by scoring 2 runs in the 7th inning for their only late inning come from behind win.

Before Yesterday. The Rockies rallied in the 8th inning yesterday, scoring 4 runs to sweep the short series with the Giants and regain 1st Place in the NL West. 11 times they went into the 8th inning trailing and had never won. They had lost an additional 7 times when leading or tied after 7 innings, and had only won 3 games in which they were tied after 7 innings.

But the win yesterday represented their first win in their last AB. One significant stat, that I haven't heard mentioned is the Rockies scoring distribution. Last year at this time they had a high early run count and dismal late count as discussed here. This year it's more of a normal distribution, ranging from 17 in the 3rd to 29 in the 6th. Except for the 9th, in which surprisingly, the Rockies have scored a grand total of ONE run.

The Rockies head to Philadelphia, who are also struggling to score runs, and have lost 4 in a row.

Things are Looking Up!

The Rockies fell out of first place for the first time since April 5th yesterday. But they managed to score 5 runs against the Mets. The last time they scored 5 or more runs in a game and lost was opening day when they lost to Arizona 7-6, but then went on a 11-1 tear.

The Rockies hitting is soooooo due, that the local sportswriters have been talking about their hitting woes for the past 3 weeks, and how they need to start hitting. Well, DUH! The Rockies haven't hit since game 1 except for a rare game here or there, and the hits were timely the first few weeks of the season. Which means, just about everybody will be righting their averages at the same time. Hopefully, the Pitching continues to keep the opposition's batters in check.

Worst Schedule So Far

has to go to the Giants. When the Rockies visit them Friday night, it will only be their 10th Home game against 22 Road games. They will be coming off a 10 game Road Trip to Pittsburgh, Washington, and New York. They have another 10 gamer, in Mid August.

In June the Giants will play 16 of 22 at home and will be home for 29 of 45 between June 3rd and July 24th.

The Giants have managed to win half of their 22 road games so far, and are only 4-5 at AT&T Park.

Meanwhile, the Padres, D-Backs and Dodgers have had home cooking for the better part of the first 5 weeks, and neither team has taken advantage of it. The Dodgers are 9-9 at home, but have only 14 road games so far in which they are 6-8. Amazingly, they will continue to play more home than away--7A, 7H, 6A, 6H, 10A, 12H, 6A, 7H, 6A, 9H, 6A, 6H through August 14th, Totals: 55A, 65H. But they get their payback in the last 6.5 weeks, with two consecutive 10 game road trips, amid a 26 of 42 to finish the season on the road.

The D-Backs have now played 19 games at home and 11 on the road and are below .500. They have already had a 9 and a 10 game homestand, and they finish the season with 10 at home, and have two more 10 game home stands, one after the all-star break in July and the other on the first home stand of August. That's 49 games on 5 home stands.

Following this Sunday's game the Padres will have played 21 games at home against 13 on the Road. But they have only 19 Home games between June 12th and August 15th. They play 36 Road games in that stretch.

In all, every team will play 81 home and 81 away, but based on the performance so far, and the scheduling, it looks like other than the Rockies, the Giants have the most to gain the rest of the way.

Two Keys to the Rockies Continued Success

Chris Iannetta has been the Rockies primary catcher for the past 5 years, starting in 2007. In each year 2007-2010, another catcher has taken over sometime during the season, first Yorvit Torrealba and then last year Miguel Olivo.

This year he's playing without a veteran backup--and he needs to come through.

Ian Stewart has been the "3b of the future" for the past 3 seasons. After a productive 2009, Stewart fell off statistically in 2010. In the spring he got hurt on the first defensive play of spring training which set him back a little bit.

Face it, Neither player will hit better than .260, but both have more contributions on defense than offense and are both desperately needed to produce in 2011 to carry them to a NL West title and beyond.

So far, Iannetta is doing what he needs to do behind the plate. He needs to get much of the credit for handling the pitchers who have had an impressive starts. He calls the game with the best of them, and has thrown out 3 runners so far. He's only batting .188 but has 19 walks giving him an OBP of .388. And his hits have been productive, 8 of his 12 hits are for Extra Bases and he has driven in 12 already.

Stewart meanwhile is coming back from AAA Colorado Springs and is still only batting .097. Ty Wigginton and Jose Lopez are adequate as 3B, but Stewart is far and away the better fielder which he demonstrated again last night, leaping for a line drive. He also won't do any better than .260, but if his power comes back, and he can produce some runs, he will be a mainstay in the lineup, this year and in the future.

Putting the "Struggle" at Home in Perspective

So much attention is paid to the Rockies Historic struggles on the road, that it may be less noticed how much the Rockies struggle at Home as well in April and May. A mention in the paper on Saturday morning, had me scrambling to back up my thinking that the Rockies historically struggle at home early. Part of that may be the colder weather, the sparseness of home games early, but it always seems that the Rockies struggle at home, before turning it on in after Memorial Day.

Keep in mind, that despite their success over the past few years, the Rockies in 2007, 2008, and 2009 hit the 18-27 mark in each of those years. Achieving that low point required the Rockies to play badly at home and away. Even last season, when the low point was only 20-22, the Rockies were 16-12 at home on June 12th. Over the past 4+ years the Rockies have amassed a 55-58 record in April and May at Home vs. 54-69 on the Road (44-66 before this season). From June on, they are 149-76 at Home and 98-116 on the Road.

Yes, the Rockies need to play better at home, but they are not playing unusually bad at home. The fast start on the road just hid it, because there was a huge concentration on the road record, not the early home record.

UPDATE START: On April 14th I mentioned that we would revisit the "Start" on May 1st. Because of the rainout at Wrigley last week the Rockies are still one game short of the first 6th being complete, but the 17-9 record so far is still pretty good. A good read for the Rockies is gaining their 19th win before game 46. An excellent chance the Rocks will achieve that this season. Last year they reached 19 wins in game 37.

Rockies Finish April 17-8

It certainly wasn't a pretty month, but it was a successful month. The Rockies finished their 2nd best April ever with a win over the Pirates 4-1 on Saturday night. Only 1997 saw a better April, with a 17-7 record, so the 17 wins ties their best April Mark as well.

The Rockies also finished April 7-5 at home which equals their Home record of 2010. A local writer today referred to this as "struggling at home" when in reality, the Rockies rarely get off to a winning record at home early, even though at the end of the season, they usually approach 50 wins or more.

The last time the Rockies had an overall winning April was 2006 when they started off 15-10.

Jim Tracy finally took my advice and dropped Carlos Gonzalez from the 3 hole in the lineup. He only dropped him to 5th, but in his first two at bats he got two hits. The first hit--a double to left field led to 4 runs in the 2nd.

The Rockies have managed to win 17 games 14 by starters, none of them named Ubaldo.

SEASON SERIES: Sunday will be the last game of the season between the Rockies and Pirates and will be the first opponent they are finished with. The Rockies would be done with the Cubs also, but the rainout continued the series to June. Going into May, the Rockies have already clinched 3 season series against the Mets (4-0 with 3 games remaining); Cubs (4-1 with 1 game remaining) and the Pirates (4-2 with 1 game remaining).

The Rockies currently lead in one other series 2-0 vs. the Dodgers with 16 to play.

They are tied with the D-Backs 1-1 with 16 to play, and trail against the Giants (1-2 16 to play) and the Marlins (1-2 with 3 to Play in August @Coors)

The Friday Curse Continues

Once again the Rockies were felled by Friday, getting shutout by the Pirates 3-0. This brings their 2011 Friday record to 1-4, while the other 6 days has them 15-4, with no more than 1 loss on any other day. They are still a perfect 6-0 on Wednesdays and Thursdays--two days they didn't play this week.

Alfredo Amezaga a 33 Year old journeyman made a successful return to the Rockies Friday night. A defensive replacement for Seth Smith in a double switch, Amezaga grounded a single to right in the 8th inning, and made it to second on a passed ball. Amezaga last played for the Rockies in two games in 2005, and has 1332 Career At Bats mostly with Anaheim and Florida. He wore number 99 last night previously worn by Turk Wendell in 2004.

Dexter Fowler struck out 3 more times Friday night and now has 34 K's in 111 Plate Appearances...Carlos Gonzalez got his first hit since April 18, with a bunt single in the 9th...Since April 14th after homering in 4 straight games in New York, Troy Tulowitzki has 4 Doubles and a Triple as his only extra base hits.

Hurdle Returns to Manage at Coors Field

Tonight marks the return of Clint Hurdle as a Manager at Coors Field, for the first time since May 27, 2009. Clint is currently on a 5 game losing streak as a Manager at Coors, as his team had been outscored 27-51 in his last 5 games. His last victory at Coors was a 12-1 win over the Astros on 5/12/09, the last of 7 wins they had in 2009 with Hurdle as the Rockies Skipper against 13 losses.

I'm curious to see the welcome that Hurdle will get this weekend from the crowd at Coors Field. I'm hoping it will be warm when he's announced in the pre-game lineups. After all, he was the right manager to have when the young players needed some coddling. He's in a similar situation with the Pirates, and I wish him well--after Sunday

Off Days

For the second time this month, the Rockies have had the last game of a series postponed just before an off day giving them two consecutive days off. The first happened on April 3, and the 2nd happening yesterday. This combined with the Rainout in NY resulted in the Rockies having 6 off days in April (Barring a rainout tomorrow or Saturday.) Plus they have an off day on Monday.

This may be a bit of a blessing for the Rockies as they have been playing in fairly rotten weather most of the month. It also gives the pitching staff some rest, good for the bullpen, but may not be so good for the Starters. Depending on what they do after Chacin pitches Friday, Esmil Rogers and/or Jason Hammel may skip a start completely.

Here are the last starts:
4/22 @Fla--Chacin
4/23 @Fla--Hammel
4/24 @Fla--Jimenez
4/25 @Chic--Rogers
4/26 @Chic--de la Rosa

Here's my ideal Rotation through Mid-May:
4/29 Pitt--Chacin
4/30 Pitt--Jimenez
5/1 Pitt--de la Rosa
5/3 @Ariz--Hammel
5/4 @Ariz--Rogers
5/5 @Ariz--Chacin
5/6 @SF--Jimenez
5/7 @SF--de la Rosa
5/8 @SF--Hammel
5/9 NYM--Rogers
5/10 NYM--Chacin
5/11 NYM--Jimenez
5/13 SD--de la Rosa
5/14 SD--Hammel
5/15 SD--Rogers

The following week brings two games against the Giants at home followed by two in Philadelphia. The Rockies would be set up to pitch their top 3 starters in the first 3 games of those 4.

UPDATE: It appears the Rockies will skip Esmil Rogers altogether, until Next Saturday, May 7th:
4/29 Pitt--Chacin
4/30 Pitt--Hammel
5/1 Pitt--Jimenez
5/3 @Ariz--de la Rosa
5/4 @Ariz--Chacin
5/5 @Ariz--Hammel
5/6 @SF--Jimenez
5/7 @SF--Rogers
5/8 @SF--de la Rosa
5/9 NYM--Chacin
5/10 NYM--Hammel
5/11 NYM--Jimenez
5/13 SD--Rogers
5/14 SD--de la Rosa
5/15 SD--Chacin

Give and Take

Over the course of a 162 game season, there are going to be several games that you point to and wish you had back, as well as others that you look at as being handed to you. The Rockies took the latter, and the Dodgers gave the former on Monday night. As the Marlins were down to their last out, before rallying to beat the Dodgers in Miami, the Rockies were capitalizing on 4 Cubs errors to win the Opener at Wrigley 5-3.

The Rockies have now held their opponent to 3 runs or less 6 times and have a perfect 6-0 record in those games. Meanwhile they are 3-6 in games that they scored 3 or less runs, their only loss with more than 3 runs was opening day when they scored 6 in the loss.

Time for Cargo to Go Down?

No, no, no. Not to the Minors or even the bench. But watching Carlos Gonzalez struggle this season, especially with runners on base, makes me wonder why Jim Tracy hasn't tried moving him down to 6 or 7 in the order and moving Seth Smith up to #3.

He is currently mired in an 0-18 slump, and is batting .228 for the season. No doubt he will turn it around, but for now does it make more sense to move him lower in the lineup?

Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler is answering questions about his ability to hit from the left side. Although his Batting Average is only .277 from the left side vs. Right (.294), all 14 of his walks have come from the Left side, giving him a .400 OBP vs. the same .294. He does need to cut down on the whiffs though, as he is striking out about 1 in 3 times no matter which side of the plate he hits from, 27 Total.

Worst Week of the Season and Still 3 Games Up

No doubt about it, it was an ugly week. The Rockies have now lost 5 of the past 8 games, and their bats have been stifled--three times in the past 6 games they have entered the 6th inning without a hit.

And although their record dropped from 11-2 to 14-7, the Rockies still maintain at least a 3 game lead over the Dodgers and 4 over the Giants. In fact since Friday, April 15th, the Rockies, Giants and D-Backs have all gone 3-5, Padres 2-7. Only the Dodgers have won more than 3 games in the West going 6-3.

Rockies Win; Rest of West Loses

The Rockies regained their 4 game lead on the Giants and Dodgers, as they eeked out 3 runs on a single, Sac Fly and suicide squeeze play as Jason Hammel kept the Marlins at bay. The Rockies prevailed over the Fish 3-1.

Meanwhile, the Giants, D-Backs and Padres all lost for the 3rd time in a row, while the Dodgers lost to the Cubs at Wrigley. Hammel won his 2nd game, and Huston Street shut the Marlins down in order in the 9th, to secure his league leading 7th Save.

Sunday, Ubaldo Jimenez takes on Josh Johnson in the Series Finale.

Rockies lose in Florida

Marlins 4 Rockies 1 as Fowler breaks up No-hitter in 9th

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Getting Untracked

It probably sounds absurd to say that a team that is 13-5, needs to play better, but it really feels that way with the Rockies. But then looking at the stats, it seems like they are playing well, it just doesn't feel like it. They are 2nd in the league in runs scored per game, at 5.50 rpg. They are 9th in the league in Average, but 3rd in OBP. It also seems like they are striking out less often, but in reality, their K's per game are slightly higher than last year. And with all the talk of Dexter Fowler's improvement, he leads the team in strikeouts with 22. That's way too many for a leadoff hitter.

The pitching has not been too bad, but it's only average in League terms. ERA is 9th in the league at 3.74. Strikeouts are 12th, Walks are 8th. They are 1st in Wild Pitches.

I point this out not to disparage the team as a half-empty perspective but actually to look at it from a half-full perspective. The wins have depended a lot on their defense and league leading Double Plays. But the 13-5 record including 7 straight wins, has not been because of any kind of solid roll, but because key things happen in each game.

When the Rockies put their hitting and or pitching together consistently with the fielding, this team could go on a serious winning streak.

For now, we can be happy that we are the Rockies at 13-5, rather than the Mets at 6-13.

As Expected: 3 Pitcher's Duels Or Not

16-14

What was expected to be some good pitching matchups instead turned into 3 one-sided games two of them in favor of the Giants. Tim Lincecum lived up to his billing, throwing a no-hitter for 6 1/3 innings in game 1, before the Rockies pieced together two hits to get on the board. But 5 runs in the first and 8 in the first 3 innings was too much to overcome and the Rockies fell 8-1.

Ubaldo Jimenez took the mound in Game 2, and was promptly rocked for 4 runs in the 1st. He settled down for 4 more innings, but the 4 runs were more than Jonathan Sanchez would need, as the Giants won again 6-3.

On Wednesday, Matt Cain waited until the 2nd inning to give up 4 runs, and the Rockies would tack on 6 more to hit double digits in Runs for the first time all season, Rocking the Giants in a 10-2 rout.

The Rockies maintain a 3 game lead over the Giants as they head out for 12 of the next 15 on the Road. Two six game road trips broken up by a 3 game series against the Pirates next weekend. Their next 4 series take place in 4 different time zones, going from Eastern to Pacific in order.

The Rockies will need to prove that the first road trip was not a fluke, and will try to improve on their 7-1 road start.

Giant Showdown

Through the first 15 games of the season, the Rockies are 4 games better than the Giants, who head into Denver for a 3 game series on Monday Night. The Rockies have only played 4 games against the West going 3-1, while the Giants have completed 12 against the West going 6-6. The Giants will be the first NL West Team to play all four of it's division foes with the games against the Rockies. The Rockies won't play San Diego until May 13th, the same day Arizona and the Dodgers play for the first time.

The Giants have started slowly on the road this season, starting off 1-4, but have won 3 of the last 4 on the road, losing Sunday to the D-Backs in 12 innings. The Giants will be the first Rockies opponent this season who had a winning record last season, while the Giants have already played the Padres and Cardinals, going 3-2 against those two teams.

Tim Lincecum will face Esmil Rogers in the Opener on Monday.

The Start of the Start...

Every spring you hear every team talk about getting off to a good start. But how do you measure when the start is over? Is it the first two weeks? The first month? Two months? Longer?

As I've talked about before, the season for me is broken into parts. The Rockies of 2007-2009 all hit the same point at 18-27 which is 45 games into the season, and then had different results after. A "start" would be somewhere in between the first 6th (27 games) and the first quarter which is 40 games. For the Rockies this season, without any more rainouts or snowouts, would hit 27 games May 1st, and 40 games on May 16th. May 1st would end their 3rd homestand and May 17th would end their 4th Home stand, so let's look at where they are on May 1st and May 17th.

But either way, a start is not the first two weeks of the season. In 1997 the Rockies got off to a 10-3 start on the way to a high point of 21-9 in early May before going 24-46 in the next 2.5 months, then finishing 38-24 and had a final 83-79 record.

There are highs and lows in any season, and the strange thing about the Rockies so far is that they haven't "looked" like they are on fire, but they are doing enough to get by with the wins, and admittedly they have been playing mediocre teams for the most part. Despite that, they have not had tremendous success in either Pittsburgh or New York.

Pitching has not been bad, and there have been a couple of strong starts, but not overpowering. And don't forget that Ubaldo has not really been in the picture yet, but you have to like the gutsiness of Greg Reynolds, and Esmil Rogers.

Tulo is the only player who has been anything like on fire. 7 home runs in the past 10 games and seems to be proving that last September was not a fluke. He has definitely taken over leadership of this team as well.

Lots of positives so far in the Rockies first two weeks. But the start is not over--yet.

BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL!

It may be short-lived (for now) but had to note that with the Rangers loss this afternoon dropping them to 9-3, the Rockies currently have the best record in baseball at .778 Winning Pct (7-2).

Curious to know if the Rockies have ever had sole possession of the best record in baseball in any of their previous 18 seasons.

Friday, Friday--Can't Trust That Day

The Rockies are off to a good start, going 4-0 on days without an "F" in them, and 0-2 on those that do have an F.

Not only that, but both of their losses have been extra innings, and one-run, so their back into the losing close game modes.

But let's look at the positives: The Rockies put together a 4 game winning streak between Fridays something they didn't do in 2010 until May 26th, and in 2009 June 7th.

They have been in first place a total of 3 playing days, which is one less day than they've been in first in the past 4 years 2007-2010 (does that surprise you as much as it did me?)

The Rockies have had some setbacks, most notably Ubaldo Jimenez struggling in the opener and going down for two weeks, Ian Stewart continuing to be slowed by an injury and illness. But they have also sparkled. Esmil Rogers pitched a gem on Thursday, and Jhoulis Chacin helped the Rockies record their first shutout. On offense, Jose Lopez and Ty Winnington have contributed as starters and helped get the Rockies off to the fast start.

But temper all the excitement with the fact that the Rockies have not played anyone yet who had a winning record in 2010, and won't until the Giants come to town for Game 16 on April 18th.

On the other hand, the Rockies had a combined 19-24 record against the D-Backs, Dodgers and Pirates, so the Rockies are doing exactly what they need to do at the start of the season.

Spring Training: 3 Days to Opening Day

With 3 days left before Opening Day at Coors, the Rockies are looking in pretty good shape heading into the Season. Their rotation is set, much of their total roster is ready, and they have done pretty well in spring games (Currently 20-10-1).

Will the move to the Phoenix area for Spring Training pay off for them. In terms of facilities, even without the shorter commute times for "road" games, the Rockies should be in better shape physically than in most previous years.

The most intriguing aspect to me, is how they will use their bench, with super-Utility player Ty Wigginton, along with Jose Lopez and Jonathan Herrera around, plus the extremely limited Jason Giambi as a designated Pinch-Hitter. I think it's good to have Giambi because he seems to have a good rapport with the players, and can act as an extra coach, but I'm not certain that it's a good thing to have him take up a roster spot.

Time will tell. In 72 hours the season will get underway.

Spring Training 2011: The Final Two Weeks

I always try to gauge a team coming out of spring training based on the last two weeks heading into the season. This is when the team is more or less finalized and start playing the regulars longer and the starters tend to go about 5 innings or more. The Rockies started that stretch on Thursday of this past week. Leading up to that point the Rockies had put together a 14-6 record. Their past three games they have gone 1-2, but have given up 31 runs in the 3 games. It's time to start looking seriously at the team's performance over the next week and a half.

The biggest questions remaining are who will be the 5th starter with Cook injured and what will the infield look like, and how many catchers will come to Denver on April 1st?

Ubaldo Jimenez--to nobody's surprise--was named the opening day starter, and will be followed by De La Rosa, Chacin, and Hammel. Tracy hasn't announced a 5th starter yet, however Esmil Rogers seems likely to fill that role, however the question is would he pitch in the 5th game vs. the Dodgers or the 8th
@Pittsburgh because of an off-day on April 4th.

Ian Stewart, injured on the first defensive play of the spring, has been progressing more slowly than anticipated, leaving the door open for someone else to start at 3rd to open the season. Ty Wigginton has been performing well, and could be the starter, especially if Stewart ends up on the Disabled List to start the season.

Backup backup catcher Jordan Pacheco has had a pretty good spring. Chris Iannetta is expected to be the starter and Jose Morales is expected to be the backup, so Pacheco has also been working out at other positions, mostly infield. He could definitely be on the roster if their is a DL move with Stewart or another player before opening day.

The Rockies currently have 29 players on their active Roster, and Jason Giambi, expected to be added before Opening Day (He's currently a minor-league invitee). Cook will likely start on the DL, and Greg Reynolds will probably be sent down to the minors. That leaves three more moves for the Rockies before opening day.

Spring Training 2011: The Schedule

As promised in September, I'm finally getting around to analyzing the schedule. When first glancing at it, two things pop out: Three-Nine game Road trips to NL West Opponents are the longest road trips of the season, and the Rockies play a significant amount of their division games earlier than in the past few seasons.

This means that the Rockies will need to prove an ability to play on the road earlier if they want to compete.

In April the Rockies play 8 games against the West all at home. In May 16 split evenly 8 Home and 8 Away, ending May with the start of their first 9 game road trip. Their first 14 games of June are against the West bringing them to a total of 38 West games, 23 home, 15 away. This leaves 13 home games, and 21 away games the rest of the season. They will go two full months without another West Home game from June 15th to August 19th. They will go over a month without seeing the west from June 15th through July 22nd. They will play 18 of 21 West games on the road (you guessed it two more 9 game West Swings) between July 22nd and September 4th, before finishing up with 10 games at home against the West and finishing the Season in San Francisco.

The Rockies will play all 15 of their inter-league games in one stretch from June 17th through July 3rd. This includes Detroit at Coors, followed by a trip to Cleveland and New Yankee Stadium, finishing up with home series against the White Sox and Royals.

Other than that, travel-wise it's not too bad of a schedule. April gives them a road trip to New York and Pittsburgh, and another one to Florida and Chicago. May takes them to Philadelphia and Milwaukee--the first of two trips to see the Brew Crew. They will have to endure the heat and Humidity of July in Atlanta and Washington, and in August will go to Cincinnati, and St. Louis. An oddity in September, as they break up two 6-game home stands with a two game set in Milwaukee, before their final trip that takes them to Houston for 4 games before heading to San Francisco.

The road is what traditionally hampers the Rockies, so that as always is the key, no matter what kind of travel schedule they get.

Spring Training 2011: The $200 Million Moves

In the offseason between 2000 and 2001, Dan O'Dowd the fairly new GM of the Rockies, believing that the missing ingredient to the Rockies success was a couple of good pitchers, spent $170 million on Mike Hampton (8 years) and Denny Neagle (5 years) to anchor the Rockies Rotation. It might have been the right idea, but he chose the wrong players. All told, they played for the Rockies a combined 5 years, produced 40-51 record in 134 starts.

Two years later, O'Dowd handed Todd Helton, one of the Rockies first home-grown stars a 9 year $141 million contract which was a much wiser investment. Sure Helton has fallen off in Stats over the past few years, but Helton was the perfect choice to help bring up the young players, as the Rockies moved to the youth movement.

O'Dowd took a risk and signed Troy Tulowitzki to a 6 year deal right after his Rookie year in 2007, but the total cost was only $31 million. Although Tulo had an injury-plagued sophomore year, he has come into his own the past two seasons and is still only 26 years old headed into the 2011 season.

O'Dowd took a lot of heat when he let Matt Holliday go, but he was left with no choice, as reports go, the Rockies made an offer somewhere between 4-7 years and up to $20 Million a year, but never heard back. Instead the Rockies traded him for a couple more young players. The Cardinals eventually gave Holliday 7 years and $120 million.

This winter O'Dowd has laid down the future of the Rockies. With Helton in the last year of his contract (unless the Rockies take the option for 2012), O'Dowd turned to Troy Tulowitzki as the future leader of this team, and extended it out until 2020. Total cost of the next 10 years is $157.75 (roughly 125 million more than they had already committed for the next 3 years.)

Next he somehow lured Jorge De La Rosa back for up to 4 years, and up to $43 Million, but only guaranteeing the two years at $21.5 Milion.

The biggest surprise happened later as O'Dowd presumably with Tulowitzki's help convinced Carlos Gonzalez, acquired in the Holliday deal, and only with 2 years of major league service under his belt, signed for $7 years and $80 million. Taking him through 2017, when he would be just turning 32.

So for $200 million for 16 player years over the winter, O'Dowd has laid the new game plan down. He is also expected to try to sign Ubaldo Jimenez by next winter to a long term deal.

It's now up to the players to go out on the field, and prove these moves were worth it. Somehow I think it will pan out better than Hampton and Neagle. All 3 of these players (along with Helton) seem committed to Denver and the Rockies success.