The Last Gasp

The Rockies performed a miracle in the 2007 season winning 13 of their last 14 games to get to the playoffs. But their march to the playoffs actually began a little earlier, August 24th to be exact, when they came back from a 5-1 deficit in the 9th inning to beat Washington 6-5. From their they went 26-10.

The Rockies will probably need to better that record if they realistically want to get back into the playoffs. 26-10 might do it (going retroactively to Saturday), when they had 36 games left. But that would only get them to 84-78. Might be enough, but I think they would need 28-8 or at least 86 wins.

There are a few obstacles within and outside their control that would also have a big effect.

First, the Rockies are only 8.5 games out but they are in 3rd place. They need to have the D-Backs and Giants to both lose enough to pass them. Those two teams face each other 6 times in September. This is not insurmountable as the Rockies in 2007 were in 4th place in the division, and 7th in the Wild Card race that they won.

Second, The Rockies face the D-Backs 6 times and Giants 7. In order to make a dent, they cannot lose ground to either team head to head, and must gain a couple of games, that means 4-2 or better against the D-Backs and 5-2 or better against the Giants. Ideally combined, they can go no worse than 10-3. In 2007, they went 17-3 against the 3 division teams ahead of them down the stretch 7-0 vs. the Dodgers; 6-1 vs. the Padres, and 4-2 vs. the Diamondbacks.

Third, the Rockies need the Dodgers and Padres to also beat the Giants and D-Backs. Giants play nobody outside the division in September, and the D-Backs have only 3 games against Pittsburgh outside the Division. With the Padres and Dodgers only a couple games behind the Rockies, the Rockies may have to contend with them as well, if they were to falter any. The divisional games means they will gain ground on somebody with a win, and lose ground on someone with a loss. It will be just as important for the Rockies to win against the Dodgers this weekend as well as the Padres in early September, giving them some cushion when they need those two teams to beat the Giants and D-Backs.

If the Rockies make some progress on this road trip in the next week, I will have an analysis of the race and the September schedules.

It would be nice to see the Rockies make a run again in September, although my gut feeling is that this team doesn't yet have that spark that they had in 2007 and 2009, but it's certainly not impossible for them to give us some excitement down the stretch.