Post-Mortem on the Tulo Trade

When I moved to Colorado in 1997, the Rockies were in the Blake Street Bomber phase of their history with Galarraga, Bichette, Castilla and Walker leading the team with homers.  Eric Young was also part of that team and was traded in August of that year, much to the dismay of many fans who had become attached to the hometown team players.

Coming from the East Coast and grown up on the Phillies where players come and go regularly, it surprised me that the Rockies fans didn't realize that players tend to stay only a few years, especially in the free agency era starting in the mid-1970's.

Little did I know that 2 weeks prior to the EY trade to the Dodgers, a young player had taken to the outfield in his Major League Debut as a Rockie and would stay in that uniform until his retirement 16 years later.  We know him as #17 Todd Helton.

But Helton is a rare exception in a business where players rarely play for one team.  Many people expected Tulowitzki to be a Rockie for life, but it was inevitable that he would eventually be traded.  Whether the Rockies got value in return remains to be seen, but many teams have to "grow" by trading seasoned veterans in their prime, to get a future.

The Phillies are in their 133rd season and only have 3 players with 10 years or more playing their entire career in Philadelphia:  Mike Schmidt 18 years, Terry Harmon 10 years, and Bob Miller 10 years.  

In all 167 players have played with one team or franchise their entire career.  There are others who were traded late in their careers such as Willie Mays and Hank Aaron, and there are others who were traded early in their careers and made their mark with primarily one team.    

The expectation that the Rockies would have 2 in their first 30+ years was unrealistic.  You can create a "family" of players but in order to grow you have to have turnover.

Tulo will be missed here in Colorado, however, more players will come up through the system.  Eventually, the Rockies may figure out who the prototype pitcher for them actually is.  They've been very successful at bringing up young hitters that can play good to great defense.   But their Rockies careers will probably be 6 years or less.  Embrace it.  

Disaster!

The Rockies mucked up their first run through the NL West going 7-15 with 3 games postponed until later in the season.    This includes losing the last 9 straight games over the past two weeks.

Last year it was injuries.  This year that's not an excuse other than losing two closers Hawkins and Ottavino the latter lost for the season.   The pitching staff is once again a disaster.   The 5 main Starters have issued 78 walks in 27 starts, and rarely lasts into the 6th inning.  Overall they have given up 160 runs (5.52 rpg).

The hitters aren't excused either.  Although as a team they are hitting .274, their ability to drive in runs is woeful.  After scoring 45 runs (5.0 rpg) in their first 9 games enroute to a 7-2 reccord, they have scored only 68 (3.58 rgp) in their next 19 going 4-15 in that stretch.

The beautiful thing about baseball is that things can change quickly, but this team just doesn't feel like it can rebound enough to compete for a playoff spot.

Sweeps Weeks

It started in San Francisco last week when the Rockies swept a 3 game series at AT&T park against the Giants.  The Rockies promptly went to Los Angeles and got swept by the Dodgers.  The Dodgers then traveled to the Bay Area and got swept by the Giants including two walk offs the last two days.

Three teams are now 3-3 against the other two.

It's early in the season, but the oddity of three sweeps by three teams in a cycle may be a harbinger of how this year will go. The NL West race is the tightest in the National League.  3 games separate the 1st to 5th.  The American League has two divisions that are within 2 games of each other.

MLB has everyone playing in-division in April and early May this year, which has made things very close for the most part as the season unfolds.  The Mets have won 11 in a row and are now 13-3 all against their east opponents.  Cincinnati is the team in the NL Central that has played all of their games in Division and have split 16.  The Giants are 7-10 and the NL West Rep in all of their games so far played in Division.

The Rockies played their first 6 out of division and will play all 4 teams home and away before playing anyone outside the division again.  So far they are 5-5 after 3 series with 15 more games in this stretch.

Swept Up in the Excitement

The Brewers contended for the NL Central title last season and are expected to do the same this year. The Rockies finished 4th and were well out of contention by June last year, and this year are expected to do the same.

The Rockies have won 1 out of every 3 games on the road over the past 3 years, and last year they won 1 in 4.   They've averaged 3.3 runs per game in that span on the road.

Although the Brewers played about .500 at home over the past 2 seasons, so the result of the opening day a sweep by the Rockies and a 20-6 scoring outburst to start the 2015 is certainly welcome.

14 Doubles 5 home runs on the Road, an opening day shutout, first place in the West.  Excellent start.  Home against the Cubbies followed by 28 straight NL West games.

You can't do better than 3-0 to start the season, keep the momentum going.

2015 Outlook

It's Opening Day 2015 and hope springs eternal in all parts of the Major League Baseball Universe.

Except in Colorado.

The Professional Rockies watchers in this town seem to be especially pessimistic this year.  The National Baseball tend to pick the Rockies 4th or 5th with Arizona in the NL West.  

And it's very understandable, the Rockies have not added major players to the roster while losing some players who have helped them the past few years.  Kyle Kendrick is the opening day starter followed by Jordan Lyles, Eddie Butler, and Tyler Matzek to start the season.   Gone is Jhoulys Chacin.  Much of the bullpen is the same including closer LaTroy Hawkins in his final year.

The offense/defense lost Michael Cuddyer but picked up Nick Hundley to back up Wilin Rosario who will back up Justin Morneau at First Base.  Utility infielder Josh Rutledge is also gone.

So here is what the Rockies will take into 2015:

Rockies Opening Day Lineup
Charlie Blackmon CF
Carlos Gonzalez RF
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Justin Morneau 1B
Nolan Arenado 3B
Corey Dickerson LF
Nick Hundley C
D.J. LeMahieu 2B
Kyle Kendrick P

I have reasons to be optimistic.   Defensively this team is solid with the infield great and the Outfield fleet.   (Dickerson, probably upgrades the OF over Cuddyer, even though Cuddyer was above average.)

Offensively this team should score.  Personally I think they should rely more on base hits and doubles to the gaps rather than long ball.

So it comes down to pitching.  Lyles was pretty sharp last year before he got hurt, Matzek had a fantastic September, Kendrick is a Coors Field type pitcher.  DeLaRosa is hurt currently and the Rockies will need him back.   Jon Grey is waiting in the wings,

The job of the starters is to keep the bullpen rested.  To do that the Starters need to get into the 7th inning consistently 3 of 5 times.  That uses the bullpen less especially early, but they cannot be constantly coming in, in the 5th like they have in recent years.

Turning to the schedule, the Rockies get tested early.  Starting next Monday, the Rox will have 25 straight games against the NL West and 32 of 38 through May 24th.  Being successful early will give them a jump on their major competitors.  Failing early will put them out of the race quickly.

Here's how it breaks out:  LA 10 games, SF 9, SD 7, and Arizona 6.  
They also finish with 25 of 32 against the West.

Lots to talk about but for now it's on to Opening Day!