Just When I Thought Our Chance Had Passed

The Rockies have been on a extended downer for the better part of the past ten weeks compiling a 24-31 record after reaching a high water mark of 47-26 on June 20th.    The Dodgers ridiculous run during that period winning over 80% of their games has exacerbated the effect of the Rockies swoon.  
But the month of August and really, the past 5 weeks have shown how frustrating the season has been.  On Sunday, July 23rd the Rockies had worked themselves up to 58-43 after a 5-1 homestand.  At this point since June 20th the Rockies were 11-17.   A drop off for sure, but the Rockies still had a 4.5 game lead over the Brewers for the Road Wild Card position and a game ahead of the D-Backs for the Home Wild Card position.  

In the 30 games since then, the Rockies have had a 13-17 Record including 6-11 on the road.   More concerning is that the Rockies have only scored more than 5 runs 5 times in those 30 games.  They have scored 5 runs four times and 4 runs five times which leave 16 games where they did not score more than 3 times going 4-12 in those games.

By contrast, the first 30 games of the season, the Rockies score 6 or more runs 8 times, 5 runs twice and 4 runs three times, which left them with 17 games where they scored three runs or less.  They were 6-11 in those games and 18-12 overall.  

The Rockies pitching also held the opponent to 5 or fewer runs in 20 of those first 30 games, going 16-4.  In the last 30 games the Rockies Pitchers have held the opponent to 5 runs in 21 games, but the Rockies have only won 12 of those games.

Thirteen of those early games had Rockies Saves, only 7 of the last 30 have had saves.  

The Rockies are coming up on the final 32 games, 18 at home and 14 away, 26 will be against the NL West.    It is imperative that they win close to 90 games, which means they have to go 19-13 in the remaining games.  This will require them to win on the road, something they haven't done very well since early June.

Every Now and Then I Fall Apart

First of all--it's been two weeks since my last post and a lot has happened that I'd like to comment on:

RIP Don Baylor:  Don Baylor, the Rockies first Manager died on August 7th at the age of 68.  There have been many nice accolades given him, but from my standpoint, the fact that he took an expansion team to the playoffs in it's third year, is one of his biggest accomplishments.  The Arizona Diamondbacks became the first expansion team to win the World Series in it's fourth year, 2001. (Florida Marlins did it in their fifth year in 1997.), but Baylor made the Rockies pretty successful right off the bat:

Here are the Records for expansion teams first year.

1961 Los Angeles Angels, Bill Rigney, 70-91
1969 Kansas City Royals, Joe Gordon 69-93
1993 Colorado Rockies, Don Baylor, 67-95
1998 Arizona Diamond Backs, Buck Showalter, 65-97
1962 Houston Colt .45's, Harry Craft 64-96
1969 Seattle Pilots, Joe Schultz, 64-98
1993 Florida Marlins, Rene Lachemann, 64-98
1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Larry Rothschild, 63-99
1961 Washington Senators, Mickey Vernaon, 61-100

1969 Montreal Expos, Gene Mauch, 52-110
1969 San Diego Padres, Preston Gomez, 52-110
1962 New York Mets, Casey Stengel, 40-120

Baylor had the 3rd best successful start of an expansion team in it's first year, and in 6 years had 3 winning records and finished with a respectable 440-469 .484 Winning percentage.  

Chad Bettis:  The return of Chad Bettis on Monday night, along with the Baylor tribute, was one of the more emotional nights in Rockies history.  Chad pitched 7 shutout innings, but missed getting a win as the Rockies would not score until the bottom of the eighth.  Bettis goes again tonight vs. the Brewers.

Pitching Setup: Bettis' return gave the Rockies seven starters with Tyler Anderson still on the DL.  The Rockies opted to put Chatwood and Senzatella in the bullpen for the time being and sent Hoffmann down to the minors probably until September 1st.   I expect depending on how the race goes, all eight starters will get starts in September, as the Rockies set up their potential postseason roster and rotation.   As of this moment, I would include Bettis, Gray, and Marquez for sure, with Freeland, Senzatela and Hoffman mixed in.   I like Chatwood in the bullpen for long relief or even as a late inning setup guy.  

Wild Card Race:  After the two remaining games with Milwaukee, the Rockies have only the 7 games against the D-Backs and potentially the 3 games at home against the Marlins with direct games against wild card contenders.   They also have seven games against the ridiculous LA Dodgers and three against the Royals next week who are in the AL Playoff hunt.  The other 22 games are against also rans.   The D-Backs are playing Minnesota this weekend and finish with 3 games in KC, and have the Rockies for 7 and Dodgers for 6, and Miami for 3 for 21 total contender games. 

The NL Central has four contenders for both the Central Title and Wild Card opportunities, although the Pirates may fall out of both soon.  Altogether the four teams have 40 games against each other.

ChC(21)--Pit(7), Mil(7), STL(7)

STL(20)-ChC(7), Pit(8), Mil(5)

Mil(18)-Chc(7), STL(5), Pit(6)

Pit(21)--Chc(7), STL(8), Mil(6)

In Addition, Milwaukee 12 games left against NL Playoff teams Colorado(2), LA(3), Washington (4), and Miami(3)

Pittsburgh has 8 games left LA(4), Washington (4)

Cubs and St. Louis have none outside the division left with contenders. 

I include the Cubs in the analysis, because the Central Race is close. 

The Wild Card Standings look like this at the moment:

Team             W    L   GB(H)   GB(A)   GB(NLC)

Rockies         68-54        --          +1           N/A

D-Backs        67-55         1         --             N/A

Cubs              64-57         3.5      2.5           --

Cards             63-59         5         4              1.5

Brewers         63-60         5.5      4.5           2

Marlins         59-61          8         7              N/A

Pirates           58-64        10         9              6.5

What this all means is that of the 5 teams that are behind the Rockies and D-Backs three would have to actually pass them to knock them both out of the Wild Card positions. The Marlins have 6 games left to cut the lead of either team, and Milwaukee has 2 left against the Rockies.  The 4 NL Central teams will have 40 losses among them between now and October 1st.

So from this standpoint, either the Rockies or D-Backs are probably safely in the Wild Card, not both yet, but stay tuned.  

We Pillage We Plunder, We Rifle We Loot

The Rockies were handed a win today, after they gave one to the Mets last night. It's gonna happen. Last night the Rockies blew a 5 run lead for the third time this season, but only the first time at home.  The other two came in Cincinnati and Los Angeles.   Today, the Rockies scored without a hit, gettin a Hit By Pitch, Intentional Walk and two straight unintentional walk to get their 2nd Walk Off win in 3 games and 4th of the season.  In 3 of the four walkoffs, Nolan Arenado hit the winning run in.  The fourth (which was the first of the year) was a single by Raimel Tapia.

Looking at the Wild Card Race, the conventional wisdom is that the Brewers are the team the Rockies and D-Backs have to watch out for.  I think it's the Pirates based on Home Road Factor.  The Brewers have played 58 home games to 52 Road games, leaving them 23-29 in their remaining games.  They already are -1 in the Home/Road factor.    Beginning August 18th when they come to Colorado, they will play 21 of 30 on the road.

Meanwhile the Pirates are more balanced having played 53 home and 55 road games.  They are also -1 in the Home/Road Factor, but seem to have a more favorable schedule.  We'll look at remaining games in early September as the stretch drive comes into play.