Game 162

Today is Game 162 for the Rockies and Dodgers.  So it all comes down to these two games, and possibly one more tomorrow.

What we know:

The Rockies, Dodgers and Atlanta are all tied at 90-71.  If the Rockies or Dodgers win the Braves will be on the Road on Thursday.

The two teams in the NL Wild Card will have lost their last game of the season (either today or tomorrow.)

After the game today, the Rockies could head to Los Angeles, Milwaukee or Chicago. Or they could stay home. 

The Rockies will only need 1 win to get to get to the division series, Today, if the Dodgers Lose, tomorrow in a tiebreaker or Tuesday in the Wild Card game.

The Managers are playing a cat and mouse game with their pitchers.

Speculation:   The Nationals were never going to pitch Scherzer today.  They said they would, just to keep the Dodgers and Rockies honest in the first two games of their series.

Also Speculation:  The Rockies weren't going to pitch Marquez, unless they lost the first two games, although they might have given him work in a meaningless game today.

Tyler Anderson will start for the Rockies today, but expect a quick hook if things don't go too well.  The Rockies will be able to use the expanded roster tomorrow, in a tiebreaker, but then a 25 man roster specifically for the potential Wild Card game on Tuesday, and can set their bullpen on available pitchers.

The likely matchup for a Monday Tiebreaker is Marquez vs. Buehler. 

ROCKTOBER!

The Rockies won their 8th Straight Game behind Kyle Freeland 5-2 to capture their 2nd Consecutive Postseason Berth.  At the moment they are the Visitor Wild Card Qualifyer, with their eye still on the big prize:  their first NL West Division Championship.  To accomplish that they need a combination of two wins or two losses by the Dodgers.  One win or Dodger loss would put them in a at least a tiebreaker game in LA on Monday at 2:09 PM MDT.  

Freeland struggled with bases-loaded situations in three straight innings the 2nd-4th, and only gave up 2 runs in another quality start.  The Rockies explosive offense backed him up with four Home Runs including back to back dingers in the 5th by Desmond and Iannetta, while David Dahl homered in his 5th Consecutive game, and Charlie Blackmon added another in the 3rd.  All of the homers were solo shots except for Desmond's with Cargo on board. 

The Rockies over the past 8 days have won 8 straight for their longest streak this year, and have erased a 2.5 game deficit that they had when they left Los Angeles last Wednesday.  

Doing it

The Rockies left Dodger Stadium a week ago, with the worst possible outcome--being swept and trailing the Dodgers by 2.5 games with 10 to play. 
Rockies Magic Number 13. 
Dodgers Magic Number: 8

Both teams were off Thursday:
Friday: Rockies Win/Dodgers Loss   Rockies 11 Dodgers 8
Saturday:  Rockies Win/Dodgers Win Rockies 10 Dodgers 7
Sunday: Rockies Win/Dodgers Win Rockies 9 Dodgers 6
Monday: Rockies Win/Dodgers Win Rockies 8 Dodgers 5
Tuesday:  Rockies Win/Dodgers Loss Rockies 6 Dodgers 5
Wednesday:  Rockies Win/Dodgers Loss Rockies 4 Dodgers 5


So the Rockies in a week have taken the lead over the Dodgers by 1/2 game after going 6-0 to the Dodgers 3-3.

Meanwhile the Rockies are 1.5 games ahead of St. Louis for the Visitor Wild Card who will go to either Milwaukee or Chicago for the Wild Card Game.

The Division Winner likely will play Atlanta, with the possibility still of hosting the first two games still in play.  The Rockies are one game behind the Braves, but they have the advantage in a tiebreaker with a 6-1 Season Series against them. 

Four days to play.  Lots of options, continue to win and we'll be playing somewhere next Thursday.

Looking at the Races

The Rockies sit a game and a half out of the NL West and the Wild Card going into today's action.  The Cardinals have already won today, making it a two game lead, but still only one loss ahead of the Rockies.

Milwaukee still has a chance for the Central title but otherwise should make the Playoffs as will the Cubs.  The Braves wrapped up the NL East this afternoon.

So that leaves the Dodgers, Rockies and Cardinals playing for the remaining two spots.

Dodgers  85-69--Have two remaining home games against the Padres then hit the road to Arizona and San Francisco for 3 each. 

Cardinals 86-69--Finish with the Giants at home tomorrow, host Milwaukee for three and go to Chicago for the weekend for three.

Rockies 83-70--Their last two road games for the season are in Arizona, then home for four against the Phillies, and then Washington for three.

The toughest road is for the Cardinals at the moment with their final 6 against contenders.  The Cubs lead the Brewers by 1.5 games the same as the Dodgers over the Rockies, except that the Brewers have two more losses than the Cubs (the Cubs have one extra game to play).  On the other hand the Cardinals have the biggest say in whether they can move into the Home Wild Card position or even capture the NL Central. 

The Brewers finish with 3 games against Detroit next weekend, while the Cubs host Pittsburgh for 4 in the early part of the week.

For the NL West, on paper the schedule favors the Rockies, as the Dodgers hit the road and the Rockies are home for the last week.  However the Dodgers have a better record on the Road (43-32) vs. Home (42-37).  But then again the Rockies headed into this road trip at 40-32 and are now 42-37.  The Rockies are 41-33 at home but have won 30 of their last 42 at home after starting out 11-20.   

Bottom line, the Rockies need to score runs to get them into the playoffs.  The West Division is not out of reach despite losing 5 of 6 to the Dodgers over the past couple of weeks.   In baseball, anything can happen.  The next 9 days will tell us more.

One more thing...if the Rockies have to play a Tiebreaker game with either the Dodgers or Cardinals it will be a road game.  The Cardinals will have a home Tiebreaker against either the Dodgers or Rockies.

One Bizarre Scenario:
Should all three tie (and Milwaukee and the Cubs win the Central and Home Wild Card spot in any order) the Rockies would go to LA to play the Dodgers on Monday, October 1st, the winner would advance to play Atlanta or the NL Central winner in the Division Series, and the loser would have to go to St. Louis to play for the Visitor Wild Card Spot on Tuesday, (presumably), then the winner would have to go to the Home Wild Card (Milwaukee or Chicago) for the Wild Card game. That winner would play the #1 Seeded team in the Division Series.   

Bringing it Home

Arizona:  Home: (15)  LAA (2-0) Sea (0-2) SD (2) Atl (4) Chic Col, LAD,
                Away:  (17) Tex (1-1) SD (3-1) SF (1-2), LAD (1-3) Col (1-3) Hou (1-2) SD

Los Angeles: Home: (13) SF (1-2) , STL (0-3), SD (2-0), Ariz(3-1) NYM ,  Col, SD
                      Away: (18) Sea (2-1), Tex(2-0) Col (2-1), Cinc (1-2) StL (3-1), Ariz, SF

Colorado: Home: (17) SD (2-1), StL (1-1),  SF (3-0), LAD (1-2), Ariz(3-1), Phil(4), Wash
                 Away:  (15) Hou (1-1) Atl (4-0),  LAA(1-1) SD (2-2), SF (1-2),  LAD, Ariz

Since August 12th

Colorado:  18-12
Los Angeles: 18-13

Arizona:  13-7

The Dodgers hit the road this week and lost 2 out of 3 in Cincinnati, and won 3 of 4 in St. Louis.   The Rockies handled the D-Backs at home 3-1 including a walk-off HR on Wednesday, and salvaged 1 of 3 as they embarked on their road trip to San Francisco.

This week the Rockies head into Dodger Stadium.  The team that wins 2 of the 3 games will spend Thursday in first place.  A sweep by either team will put them in the drivers seat over the final 10 days of the season.   The Dodgers then finish their home schedule against San Diego while the Rockies head to Arizona. 

Arizona's last gasp to stay in the West race hinges on their performance at home this week hosting the Cubs followed by the Rockies.  Currently 4.5  games behind the Rockies. 

Magic Numbers: the Rockies Magic Number is 14, the Dodgers is 14 and the D-Backs is 19.  The problem for the D-Backs at this point is that they need both the Rockies and Dodgers to lose to decrease their magic number.  The best they can do is beat the Cubs in all 3 and have the Dodgers and Rockies split, which would decrease their number to 15.  But the Rockies or Dodgers would be at 10 or less.  At that point the D-Backs would need to win all 6 of their games against the Rockies and Dodgers to have any kind of chance to win the West, certainly they would need 5 of the 6 wins. 

Hang on, it's going to be a bumpy ride!

Rockies Notes:  The Rockies got their 41st win of the season on Sunday, and are now 41-34 on the road  One more win in their final six would set a franchise record for Road Record.  2009 and 2017 the Rockies finished at 41-40.  The Rockies are 38-32 vs. the NL West giving them at least a .500 record for the season.  Rockies finished 12-7 against the Giants. 

The Last Road Trip

The Rockies did what they needed to do on their 10 game home stand, going 7-3 including 4-3 vs. the Dodgers and D-Backs.  Granted it would have been better for the Rockies to go 2-1 vs. Dodgers, but their 3-1 series with the D-Backs effectively puts Arizona in the position of needing to sweep both Colorado and the Dodgers in their remaining games, similar to where the Rockies were in 2007. 

So does it become strictly a Dodgers/Rockies battle for first?  The headlines from LA noted that the Dodgers are now 1 game out of the Wild Card after holding off the Cardinals last night. This is probably because they are directly playing the team they need to get ahead of.   As I mentioned before, the Rockies should concentrate on the West Title until they can't, and then worry about positioning in the Wild Card Race.  But for the record, the Rockies are 1/2 game ahead of the Cardinals.   

So the last Road Trip for the Rockies starts this weekend.  Starting off in San Francisco, and then taking them to Los Angeles and Phoenix.   With a magic number of 15 with 16 to go and 17 days to go, the Rockies simply need to average one per game played to win the division.  Of course directly against the Dodgers, there's a chance to gain two.   If the Dodgers lose, the Rockies pick up one. If the Rockies win, they pick up one.  The opposite of course, favors the Dodgers, however their magic number is 18 at the moment.

Also noted, for the first time this season, the Rockies have played more home games than road games  74-72. 

It's also not too early to look at seed positioning.

Currently the standings look like this:

Cubs 85-61 TGR Projection: 95-67
Braves 82-64 TGR: 92-70
Rockies 81-65 TGR: 88-74

The Brewers are also ahead of the Rockies and Braves with an 84-63 Record, however the Wild Card winner will be seeded 4th.

The Braves have a 7.5 game lead over the Phillies, so at this point the Rockies would need to pass them to have Home Field Advantage in the Division Series. We'll look deeper into that later.

It Doesn't Get Better Than This

The last couple of months has been more proof of why baseball is so great.  Earlier in August, I mentioned that the Rockies had a lot of games that were decided in the last at bat or inning.  For the D-Backs that has been a problem in September, as they have lost 7 games already in the late innings, against teams they need to beat.  The Rockies were the recipients of good favor last night with D.J. LeMahieu hitting a two-run homer with one out in the 9th inning after the Rockies had squandered other opportunities to score. 

Those 7 games may break Arizona's seaon as it's the difference between being 10-1 in September or 3-8.  It also would put them into first place at the moment, but instead they fell 3.5 games in back of the Rockies, which puts the D-Backs in almost a must win situation this afternoon at Coors Field.  A loss puts them 4.5 games behind the Rockies and at least 3 behind the Dodgers, a win puts them at 2.5 and potentially 1 game behind the Dodgers.  It also doesn't get easy for them with Houston, Cubs, Rockies and Dodgers coming up in the next 12 games. 

The Rockies meanwhile have some of that 2007 magic back.  Last night's game was reminiscent of Todd Helton's 301st HR off of Saito to the walk-off win in game 3 of "The Streak". 

All three NL West contenders are on the road this weekend  The Dodgers head into St. Louis for a 4 game series starting tonight with the Cardinals, while the D-Backs head to Houston to close out their Inter-League season.  The Rockies seemingly have the easier schedule this weekend heading to San Francisco to play the Giants, but the Giants have lost 11 straight games and may be ready to explode at home.  And don't forget what Cincinnati just did to the Dodgers, taking two out of three in Cincinnati and 6 of 7 for the season.  All the games right now are meaningful. 

Rockies Rotation Update:

9/3 vs. Giants Anderson--W
9/4 vs. Giants Marquez--W
9/5/vs. Giants Senzatela--W9/7 vs. Dodgers Gray--L
9/8 vs. Dodgers Freeland--W9/9 vs. Dodgers Anderson--L
9/10 vs. D-Backs Marquez--W9/11 vs. D-Backs Senzatela--L
9/12 vs. D-Backs Gray--W

9/13 vs. D-Backs Freeland
9/14 at Giants Anderson
9/15 at Giants Marquez
9/16 at Giants Senzatela
9/17 at Dodgers Gray
9/18 at Dodgers Freeland
9/19 at Dodgers Anderson

9/20 OFF DAY

9/21 at D-Backs Marquez

9/22 at D-Backs Senzatela
9/23 at D-Backs  Gray

9/24 Phillies  Freeland

9/25 Phillies  Anderson

9/26 Phillies   Marquez

9/27 Phillies    Senzatella

9/28 Nationals  Gray

9/29 Nationals  Freeland

9/30 Nationals Anderson

Should the Rockies win the Division their first playoff game would be on Thursday, and they would be able to start Gray, Freeland or Marquez in that game.  If they are in the Wild Card Play in game, it would likely be Marquez going on Tuesday, 10/2. 

9/10/18 Results

The Rockies blew past the D-Backs 13-2 last night while the Dodgers lost to Cincinnati for the 5th straight time this season.

Standings:
Rockies 79-64    --
Dodgers 78-66   1.5
D-Backs 76-68   3.5

TGR Predictions:
Rockies 89-73   --
D-Backs 85-77  4
Dodgers 84-78   5

Sportsline
Dodgers 90-72  --
Rockies  87-75   3
D-Backs 86-76   4

FiveThirtyEight
Rockies 89-73   --
Dodgers 88-74  1
D-Backs 85-77 4 

Fan Graphs
Dodgers 89-73  --
Rockies  88-74   1
D-Backs 85-77   4

3 Weeks to Go

Here's how things have played out in the past 3 Weeks

Arizona:  Home: (15)  LAA (2-0) Sea (0-2) SD (2) Atl (4) Chic Col, LAD,
                Away:  (17) Tex (1-1) SD (3-1) SF (1-2), LAD (1-3) Col (4) Hou  SD

Los Angeles: Home: (13) SF (1-2) , STL (0-3), SD (2-0), Ariz(3-1) NYM, Col, SD
                      Away: (18) Sea (2-1), Tex(2) Col, Cinc StL (4), Ariz, SF

Colorado: Home: (17) SD (2-1), StL (1-1),  SF, LA, Ariz(4), Phil(4), Wash
                 Away:  (15) Hou (1-1) Atl (4-0),  LAA(1-1) SD (2-2), SF,  LAD, Ariz

San Francisco:  Home: (18) Tex (1-1), Ariz (2-1), NYM (1-2), Atl, Col, SD, LAD
                          Away: (12) LAD (2-1), Cin (0-3) , NYM (2-2), Col,  Milw, SD, STL

Since August 12th

Colorado:  11-7
Los Angeles: 11-7

Arizona:  9-9
San Francisco: 9-10

Overall Arizona and Dodgers have traded places with the Dodgers having a 1 game lead over the D-Backs.  The Rockies move from 3rd place to 2nd picking up 2 games on Arizona, but staying even with the Dodgers and still trail them by 1/2 game.

In the early games this week all three leaders are home Rockies vs. Giants, Dodgers vs. Mets and D-Backs have the Padres for 2.  Next weekend, the D-Backs host the Braves for 4 while the Dodgers come to Coors Field, while the Giants go to Milwaukee. .

All 3 top teams are pitching well, and not hitting well. It's still anybody's title, but the Giants are going to have a tough road to get back into it over all 3 teams.

One other note from the Rockies standpoint:  The Rockies pitchers are set up to have Gray and Freeland go in both the Dodgers and D-Backs series at home.  In fact the same three guys will pitch against the Giants both at Coors and AT&T as well as the Dodgers. 

The Race with 4 Weeks to Go

Here's how things have played out in the past 3 Weeks

Arizona:  Home: (15)  LAA (2-0) Sea (0-2) SD (2) Atl (4) Chic Col, LAD,
                Away:  (17) Tex (1-1) SD (3-1) SF (1-2), LAD (1-3) Col (4) Hou  SD

Los Angeles: Home: (13) SF (1-2) , STL (0-3), SD (2-0), Ariz(3-1) NYM, Col, SD
                      Away: (18) Sea (2-1), Tex(2) Col, Cinc StL (4), Ariz, SF

Colorado: Home: (17) SD (2-1), StL (1-1),  SF, LA, Ariz(4), Phil(4), Wash
                 Away:  (15) Hou (1-1) Atl (4-0),  LAA(1-1) SD (2-2), SF,  LAD, Ariz

San Francisco:  Home: (18) Tex (1-1), Ariz (2-1), NYM (1-2), Atl, Col, SD, LAD
                          Away: (12) LAD (2-1), Cin (0-3) , NYM (2-2), Col,  Milw, SD, STL

Since August 12th

Colorado:  11-7
Los Angeles: 11-7

Arizona:  9-9
San Francisco: 9-10

Overall Arizona and Dodgers have traded places with the Dodgers having a 1 game lead over the D-Backs.  The Rockies move from 3rd place to 2nd picking up 2 games on Arizona, but staying even with the Dodgers and still trail them by 1/2 game.

In the early games this week all three leaders are home Rockies vs. Giants, Dodgers vs. Mets and D-Backs have the Padres for 2.  Next weekend, the D-Backs host the Braves for 4 while the Dodgers come to Coors Field, while the Giants go to Milwaukee. .

All 3 top teams are pitching well, and not hitting well. It's still anybody's title, but the Giants are going to have a tough road to get back into it over all 3 teams.

One other note from the Rockies standpoint:  The Rockies pitchers are set up to have Gray and Freeland go in both the Dodgers and D-Backs series at home.  In fact the same three guys will pitch against the Giants both at Coors and AT&T as well as the Dodgers. 

Current Rotation:

9/3 vs. Giants Anderson
9/4 vs. Giants Marquez
9/5/vs. Giants Senzatela
9/7 vs. Dodgers Gray
9/8 vs. Dodgers Freeland
9/9 vs. Dodgers Anderson
9/10 vs. D-Backs Marquez
9/11 vs. D-Backs Senzatela
9/12 vs. D-Backs Gray
9/13 vs. D-Backs Freeland
9/14 at Giants Anderson
9/15 at Giants Marquez
9/16 at Giants Senzatela
9/17 at Dodgers Gray
9/18 at Dodgers Freeland
9/19 at Dodgers Anderson
9/21 at D-Backs Marquez
9/22 at D-Backs Senzatela
9/23 at D-Backs  Gray

With the off day on 9/20, the Rockies could bypass Senzatela and have Marquez, Gray and Freeland go against the D-Backs in Arizona depending on what the situation is at that point.  Chad Bettis could also come back into the rotation at some point.