Jim Tracy Resigns as Rockies Manager

Jim Tracy resigned today as the Rockies Manager after nearly 4 years at the helm.  He compiled a 294-308 record with the Rockies and led them to their best record of 92-70 in 2009 and their worst record at 64-98 this season.

I have pondered the status of Tracy for most of the 2nd half of the year, and still could not conclude whether he deserved to stay or needed to go.  It's difficult to say what type of skipper the Rockies need someone who can motivate them in thier longer slumps than either Clint Hurdle or Jim Tracy had done over the past several years.

I thank Jim Tracy for his service to the Rockies and wish him well.  He certainly deserves another managing opportunity in the future.

MLB Whiffs with 2013 Schedule

First of all, I'd like to give the Rockies some credit:  Within a day of the release of the 2013 schedule in mid-September, they had a printable schedule ready.  I haven't seen any other team release a printable schedule yet.

In 2011, MLB announced that starting in 2013 the National League and the American League would both have 15 teams, and that the Houston Astros would balance the leagues by moving to the AL West from the NL Central.  The mathematically inclined thought that this would lead to a balanced schedule in the following way:

1. All teams would now have 4 divisional Opponents.  Scheduling 18 games with each division opponent (9 home and 9 Away would give each team 72 games.)

2.  There would be 10 League opponents outside of their division.  They could play each one of them 6 times (3 Home and 3 Away) and would provide each team with an additional 60 games.

3.  That would leave 30 InterLeague games.  They could play one division in the other league home and home 3 games each, or two of the divisions 3 games each to reach the 30 games.

But this posed several problems for MLB.

1.  MLB did not want 30 interleague games per team, they would prefer to have 18-20.

2.  "Natural" rivalries would have to be abandoned.  Never mind the fact that there are really only about 5 "Natural" rivalries, the fact that the Yankees were involved in one of them, superseded all sense of  balance for the other 29 teams.

3.  There weren't enough 4 game series to schedule consecutive playing days without also having a bunch of 2 game series, which the teams don't like.

All right fine.  Let's give them their Natural rivalries.  Let each division play another division in the other league 3 games (Home or Away)  giving each team 15 interleague games.  No wait that won't work, so each team plays 4 of the 5 teams 3 times and one team they play home and home in 2 games.  Next year NL West plays AL East, NL East Plays AL Central and NL Central Plays AL West.

It also leaves A home and home series for the natural rivals played on consecutive days 2 home and 2 away. And these 4 game series will all start on Memorial Day.

Okay fine, that still leaves 72 division games and 70 other games in the league which means all the non-Division opponents can play each other 7 times.  Great!

Except that didn't happen either and this is where MLB blew it.  They instead increased division games to 19 per opponent for a total of 76 games.  Then each team will play a random combination of 6 of the other teams 7 times and the other 4 only 6 times.   For the Rockies they will play everyone in the NL East 7 times and everyone in the NL Central other than the St. Louis Cardinals 6 times.  For Arizona it's the NL Central and one team from the East 7 times.  For the other 3 NL West teams, it's a mix of 6 teams from both divisions.

The Rockies will open 2013 in Milwaukee, and then come home for 3 with San Diego before going to the West coast in San Francisco and San Diego.  Their first interleague games are May 3-5 at home against Tampa Bay.  Their "Natural" rival is the Houston Astros (Arizona got Texas).  MLB has all of the natural rivals playing each other in home and home series of 4 games from Memorial Day through May 30th.

So here are the Natural City Rivals:
1. Yankees/Mets
2. Angels/Dodgers
3. A's/Giants
4. White Sox/Cubs
5. Orioles/Nationals

Here are the Natural State Rivals:
6. Indians/Reds
7. Royals/Cardinals
8. Rays/Marlins
9. Rangers/Astros (oops!)

Here are the odd men out.
9.  Mariners/Padres
10. Twins/Brewers
11. Red Sox/Phillies
12. Tigers/Pirates
13. Blue Jays/Braves
14. Rangers/D-Backs
15. Astros/Rockies

In 2013 the Rockies Tough month will be August where they have 11 home games and 17 Road Games. Starting July 29th they play 20 of 26 on the Road.  They do have a stretch from May 16th to June 16th where they have 22 of 29 at home.

A strong start in April and May will certainly help the Rockies be competitive, but from Father's Day to Labor Day things could get brutal.  They will have 5 consecutive 3 city Road Trips starting on June 17th and going through September 15th. During this stretch they will play 48 road games and only 31 Home games.   Also during that stretch they will play no games in the Central Time Zone.  Three of the trips will be eastern time zone trips, while the other two trips are divisional West Coast trips.  In fact they only have 11 central time zone games, and play all of them in April and May.

For the next few months the Rockies will shape the Roster for next year.   The schedule although better next year, again seems to be put together with leftovers from the big market teams.

The 2013 Rockies--Pitchers

Earlier we discussed the hitting.  Today we discuss the Pitching.

The big 2012 experiment was the 4 man rotation with the 3 man piggyback.  By mid-June the Rockies really had a problem early with their injuries and lack of experience.

Let's go back about 6 months and look at the initial Rockies Rotation:

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jamie Moyer
3. Juan Nicasio
4. Jhoulys Chacin
5. Drew Pomerantz

Of those 5 Pomerantz had the most starts (21) followed by Guthries' 15.  Chacin will end up with 14, Nicasio 11and  Moyer 10.  That only covered 71 games.

In all, the Rockies have had 14 different starters this season with 9 of them starting 10 or more games.  The team leader in starts is familiar but didn't even arrive until June--Jeff Francis.  He will end up with 24 starts.

It also needs to be noted that the Rockies used a 4 man rotation with a 75 pitch limit for much of the latter 2/3rds of the season.

For 2013 the Rockies have announced that they will move back to a 5 man rotation with a higher pitch count, but retain the piggyback system keeping 3 long relievers.  In order for it to work several of the starters must consistently get to the 6th and 7th innings on the 90-100 Pitches.  Many of them failed to get through 4 on 75.

Guthrie and Moyer are no longer around, but the Rockies still have a number of pitchers to choose their 8 starters/piggybacks from before all the winter moves.

Here are my candidates for the Starters:
1. De La Rosa (L)
2. Chacin (R)
3. Nicasio (R)
4. Francis (L)
5. Friedrich (L) or Chatwood (R)

And for Piggybacks:
1. Outman
2. Moscoso
3. Ottavino

This still leaves lots of other possibilities when injuries ineffectiveness strikes:
Pomerantz
White
Torres
Sanchez

It also frees up Roenicke to be in the finishing bullpen, along with Belisle, Brothers, Reynolds, Harris and Betancourt.

If anything the Rockies disastrous season gave a lot of young pitchers a lot more experience.  They need to come out in 2013 in good shape and better throwing.

The 2013 Rockies--Hitters

I'll be giving you an analysis of the 2013 Rockies Schedule, but I've also been giving a lot of thought to the Rockies lineup next year.   It's likely the Rockies will avoid a 100 loss season, but will also have the worst season in the 20 year history of Major League Baseball in Colorado.

The Rockies made many moves last winter, somewhere above 20, and while many didn't pan out, there are still some things to look forward to in 2013.

The starting Lineup going into the winter appears to be the following certainties:

Rosario C
Helton 1B (Pending Return)
Rutledge 2B
Tulowitzki SS
Nelson/Pacheco 3B*
Gonzalez LF
Fowler CF
Cuddyer RF

*Assuming Todd Helton returns it's likely Pacheco and Nelson will platoon at 3B.  If Helton Does not return then Pacheco will probably play 1B and Nelson 3B.

The advantage of having so many injuries and a horrible record is that we've got a good look at some of the future players, as well as the backups:

Certain to be considered:
Herrera
Colvin
DeMahieu
Young
Colvin

In addition these players have not shied away from the opportunity:
Blackmon
Brown
McBride

My guess is that Hernandez and Giambi will not return although Hernandez is signed for 2013.  I think the Rockies need to commit to Rosario as the Starting Catcher.  

Home Away From Home

The Rockies completed their 2nd straight 4 game sweep of the Mets in Citi Field in New York.   Overall the Rockies are now 10-5 at Citi Field since it opened in 2009...The Rockies completed their 3rd shutout in the past 17 games after having only 1 shutout in the first 106 games...The Rockies now have tied their longest winning streak of the season at 5...The Rockies won 4 straight games on the road for the first time since April 9-14, 2011 when they won 6 in a row...The Rockies are guaranteed a winning road trip for the first time since April 22-26, 2011 when they were 3-2 in Florida and Chicago.

Signs of Life?

The beautiful thing about baseball is that you can look so bad one day and so good the next.  After a horrendous home stand in which the Rockies went 1-8 and giving up 76 runs and scoring 42, they promptly go on the road and score 12 runs in the first 4 games and win 3 of the 4 two by shutout.

Is the pitching experiment starting to show results?  I think it's still too early to tell, but it's great not to be behind by 5 runs early for a few games.

Just under 1/3 of the season to go, and the Rockies will  need to win half their games to have their worst ever  record.  In 1993 and 2005 the Rockies had identical 67-95 records.  The 2012 version of the Rockies are on pace with the 2005 Rockies at 41-69 and are 5 games ahead of the pace in 1993.

One statistic that will need to change is the Saturday/Sunday record currently at 6-30.  With 16 Saturday and Sunday games left they will need to pick it up quite a bit to avoid having the worst Rockies record ever. combined with Tuesday (4-10) the Rockies are 10-40 on those 3 days and are 31-29 on the other 4 days.

The Rockies have only 2 more off days between now and the end of the Season, both are Thursdays August 30, and September 13.  The Rockies will only play 13 Thursday games all season.

Another scheduling oddity.  The Rockies played the Giants only 5 times in the first 103 games of the season, leaving them 13 games in the final 59, 22% of the games from that point.  (Currently they have 13 games left.) Combined with 9 against LA (3 earlier this week) and 7 against Arizona, the Rockies could still have a big say in who wins the West.

The Rockies remaining schedule has them playing a lot of also-rans in the final weeks.  Other than the 3 NL West opponents they have Milwaukee (51-60), Miami (51-62), Mets (54-59), Philadelphia (51-61), San Diego (50-64) and Cubs (54-67).   This accounts for half of the final 52 games.  That leaves the 22 NL West games and a 4 game set in Atlanta, as the only games against winning teams.

The Outman Odyssey

I have to take issue with Jim Tracy leaving Josh Outman in for so long to try to pick up a win.   In order to buy in to the 4 man rotation, you more or less need to be pretty rigid on the pitch count for it to work long term.  In three of his first four innings, Outman made 18 pitches each inning and got out of a couple jams.  In his only 1-2-3 inning Outman required 15 pitches.

So going into the 5th, he was getting ready to throw his 70th pitch, and Tracy knew he would need to go at least 85-90 pitches to get through the inning.   And he had a 10 run lead.

Perfect situation to get a win, but at what cost.  2 of the first 3 runners got on base and the count was already at 85.  Probably the point that he should have come out at that point with only 1 out.  He did strike out Josh Hamilton (but who can't this weekend) on 3 pitches and he was now at 88 and one out away.


The end result was 92 pitches, no win, and ultimately a potential easy win turned into a relatively close one, before the rest of the bullpen shut them down.   


So will Outman be ready by Wednesday?  We will see if this cost them long term and I suppose it's part of the experiment.  There are options however.  Depending on how the next 3 games go, the Rockies could put Outman in the long-relief role for a turn, and put Guthrie or Moscosco in a start on Wednesday.  They could also bring up someone from Colo Springs for Wednesday as well, or they could let Outman pitch, but hold him just under 75.  


By the way, in the first 5 games of the experiment, nobody has given up more than 5 runs in a start and everyone has made it to the limit (70-75) before being taken out.  

The 4 man pitching rotation

Since I suggested a modified starting rotation to a couple of family members earlier this month, I am fully on board with the experimental 4 man rotation, with the 3 long relievers.

In the 5 games prior to the change, the Rockies pitchers had issued 24 walks.  In the four games since the rotation was implemented, the Rockies pitchers have only issued 8.    If nothing else, the new rotation has caused pitchers to throw strikes.  

The 19 runs given up are the fewest in any consecutive 4 games on the road since May 8-12, when they gave up 14.  And like the last 4 games they were 1-3 in those games.

I'd like to see the Rockies stick with it, through the All-Star break, that would be 5 times through the rotation to see whether it starts to pay off.

However, the Rockies offense has only scored 26 runs in the first 7 games of the road trip, but 8 of them were in one inning.  The other 54 innings has produced just 18 runs, about 1 run per 3 innings.

Where do we go from here.

The Rockies have already mailed in this season with 40 losses in the first 65 games.  With a home-laden early schedule in which they have stumbled to a 15-21 record, the Rockies are now playing for the future.

To that end, here are my suggestions:
1. Figure out the future rotation.  Bring back Pomerantz, make a decision on Francis and Guthrie.  Continue to develop with White and Friedrich.  There is some promise there, but they need to stop being afraid to throw strikes.  Give a few of the other prospects chances late in the year.

2. Release Giambi already.  As much as I like Giambi's contributions on the bench, he serves no useful purpose as a DH on a NL team.  He's an aged backup to an aging 1st Baseman.    Use Cuddyer, Pacheco or someone else to spell Helton, and give a younger future player more playing time.

3.  Find an infield.  Tulowitzki is the only sure part of the infield for the future.  Let's find out if Pacheco, or Nelson is an everyday 3b (and I like what I'm seeing out of both of them.)  Nelson, Herrera or Young as 2B.  First Base will always be a problem, in the initial replacements for Helton eventually.

4.  Determine if this Manager and Coaching Staff have the right mindset to take this team to a more competitive level.  Jim Tracy is very patient.  Bob Apodacca has worked well with the young pitchers, but we keep seeing Deja Vu all over again.   We need to have the fundamentals stressed a LOT more.

5.  Dan O'Dowd--See #4 for the General Manager.

The Myth of the Improved Offense

Recently I heard Jeff Huson on the Rockies broadcast mention that the offense was "fine".    He cited their greater than 5 runs per game as exhibit A.  Other commentary and reporting also mentions that the offense is improved.  In fact the Rockies currently lead the National League in Runs scored, but that is only one statistic.

In 2011, the Rockies scored over 4.5 runs per game, in 2012 so far, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game.  That is better, however the distribution of those games is what matters.  In 15 games the Rockies have scored 8 runs or more averaging 10.5 runs per game.  In 32 games the Rockies have scored 4 runs or less, averaging 2.15 runs per game.  Combining the 15 high scoring games with the 32 low scoring games, the Rockies are of course averaging 4.83 runs per game which IS better than last year, however nearly half their games they are averaging 2.15 runs per game.  Over 1/3 of their games they are getting 3 runs or less, which is not going to do them any good this season with the pitching in disarray as it is.

Or to put it another way, nearly half their runs (48%) were scored in about 23% of the games, with an 11-4 record.  In about 50% of the games, they have scored 21% of their runs with a 5-27 record.  The remaining games (between 5-7 runs) has been 18 games, and are 9-9.

Runs are great, but it's hard to say that the Rockies have a better offense this year.  With the decreased pitching and fielding, this season will continue to be a disaster.


   

Better May Than Last Year

You may find this hard to believe, but the Rockies actually had a better May in 2012 than 2011.   The Rockies took a 4 game winning streak and 6 of 8 streak to close out the month and complete a  10-18 Month.  In 2011, the Rockies lost 10 of their last 13 to finish 8-21.

The Rockies have a lot of ground to make up after digging themselves a huge hole, and there are finally some signs of them breaking out of it.  And they start June with their last chance to directly gain ground on the Dodgers before early August.  The Dodgers have also played 30 of their first 51 games at home where they are     21-9 (21-5) before a recent 4 game sweep by Milwaukee.   The Rockies may have a chance to further close the gap as the Dodgers play 19 of 28 on the road in June (although 3 of those road games are against the Angels).  The Dodgers are 11-10 on the road, while the Rockies play 15 of 27 at home where things are starting to heat up.

Same Old RISP-less Rockies?

The Rockies changed a lot over the winter, but the result of the first weekend of the 2012 Season, wasn't that much different than the past couple of seasons.

1 for 13

The Rockies managed to only get 1 hit with Runners in Scoring Position--that being a Todd Helton Double in Friday's game.  

Of course the Rockies started out 2011 with 3 for 16--but that was in the first game alone!  In the first 3 games, they were 6 for 29.   In 2010 they were 4 for 30.

The startling number isn't the 1 for, it's the 13.  Not many chances in the new look offense and the Rockies only scored 10 runs...in Houston!

On the positive side, Jeremy Guthrie's debut and Juan Nicasio's return were tremendous starts, and even the ageless Jamie Moyer, didn't do badly giving up 4 runs (3 Earned) in 5 innings.

The 2012 Schedule

Ever since MLB introduced inter-league play in 1997 it seems that the Rockies and the NL West have gotten screwy schedules.  From the 2 game series of the early years, to the random assigning of opponents in the later years, much of it has never made sense.

In 2013, Inter-League plays takes on a new format with the Astros moving to the NL West, but in 2012, the schedule finally makes some sense.

For instance, the Rockies have no opponent that they play only 2 games against at home or Road.  They will play every NL opponent at least 6 times (3 home, 3 away).  Their "compensatory" opponent is the Phillies this year after having Milwaukee the last couple of years.  This is the opponent that NL Teams have to play during inter-league play because of the uneven number of teams in the NL vs. AL.

The Rockies once again have 81 home games and 81 road games, and for the first time the Rockies have scheduled a home double header on Memorial Day against Houston although it is two separate admissions.

In order to succeed this season, the Rockies will have to win early, or win on the road--or both.  Their home schedule is heavily overweighted with their first 2 home stands each being 9-games and playing 13 of 16  at home from Memorial Day through June 14.  

The flip side is that they will play heavily on the Road from August 20 to October 3.  One third (27) of their road games will be played in those 6.5 weeks with only 16 home games.   Worse, the Rockies will only have 2 off days between August 9th and the end of the season, while they are doing the heavy travelling.  It would be against a lot of odds, for the Rockies to make a comeback during this stretch.

Their individual road trips don't look too bad, the longest being 9 games in late June to Detroit Philadelphia and Texas.  The only other 3 city trip is San Diego, LA and SF 8 games in May.

Long home stands are against SF, Arizona and San Diego, in April; New York Mets, LA Dodgers and Atlanta April 27-May 6; Cincinnati, St. Louis and San Francisco (10 games) July 27-August 5.

A good start will be needed and then hold on tight in September.  Not the usual formula, but the one that is needed.

The Dawn of a New Season

We can put the 2011 Season in the rear view mirror and finally look forward to the 2012 Version of the Rockies.   Many changes that have been discussed over the off season, and still the biggest questions revolve around the Pitching.

A brand new start 0-0, going into Houston Next Friday.  Stay tuned as we discuss the new look Rockies, the Schedule and the competition.