Thursday, August 19, 2010

A Word About Brad Hawpe

One of the things, we as Rockies fans will have to get used to is the fact that we won't have a lot of long term players. It's not because the Owners are cheap, it's the business model that seems to work for constrained budgets in MLB. As soon as you go outside that plan and sign too many players to long-term contracts, rather than bring prospects up, it usually requires a major rebuild--see the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland A's and even the early 2000's Rockies.

That said, it is still tough to see Brad Hawpe just get released, going from All-Star to released in 13 months is an incredible downfall. I wish Hawpe well--he's a class act, but I'm also glad the Rockies didn't go out and spend a lot on a long-term contract for him.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Get a Grip

When I "opened" the morning paper (I get it via Kindle), I read where one writer said (hopefully, facetiously) that because of the Rockies road woes (Currently 23-36) they would have to win their remaining Home games--All of them. I can state unequivocally right now that that will not happen, so let's look at the reality of where the Rockies are.

First off, it's definitely not good. In 2007 they were 6 games out of first and 3 games out of the Wild Card. In 2009 they were 5 games out of first and 1.5 games ahead in the Wild Card. This year they are 8.5 games out of first and 5 games out of the Wild Card.

The Rockies desperately need a run of wins, which is not just a winning streak but a prolonged period of time winning, something like the Phillies 16-4 streak prior to last night, which pretty much started with the sweep of the Rockies (after a getaway win in St. Louis) or the 20-3 record the Rockies ran off last year in June. Or even the 21-1 record they had at the end of 2007.

The good news is if they have any kind of a run they will be doing it at the expense of the NL West, where 33 of their remaining 47 games remain. Of course, NOT getting on some kind of run means they get buried. The Rockies have had spurts of good Pitching and Good Hitting at different parts of the season. They haven't gotten them both going at the same time.

Let's also look at the Road Record. It is true they have not had a winning road trip, but that just tells me that a team this good won't go through the whole season without a winning road trip. They have 4 left (ignoring the makeup game with Philadelphia in Denver on September 2nd. 3 trips are against the West and the final one in St. Louis.

And if you take out the disaster that was the 2-9 road trip, the Rockies are 21-27 on the Road. Their other Road trips were 1-2, 3-4, 4-5, 3-4, 3-3, 1-2, 3-3, and 3-4.

It's definitely a cross roads for the Rockies, and hopefully they will respond positively, but it also may not be their year, which would be a shame after all the big moments of this season.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

The Road Woes

The Rockies have never been a good road team. Except for 2007 and 2009, they have never been anywhere close to .500 on the road. The biggest surprise of 2009 was the Rockies actually got kick-started on the road to the Wild Card on the road by winning the first 8 of their season high 11 game winning streak on an 11 game road trip. After dropping 3 in a row to Houston, they salvaged the last game, then swept 4 in St. Louis and 3 in Milwaukee.

Hopes were high this year as the Rockies headed into the All-Star break winning 8 of 10 at home and embarking on the season's longest road trip of 11. The Rockies of course, tanked it, losing 3 of the first 5, then dropping the final 6, to take them to 20-32 on the road.

The Rockies are gangbusters at home, winning 36 of 55 at home. Even if they were to continue that pace the rest of the season (18-8) they would finish 75-60, without the 27 remaining road games.

Simplified, they would need to go 15-12 on the road to hit 90 wins, which is always my target for the Wild Card slot. 20-7 and they would have 95 wins, and a probable NL West title as 18 of their remaining road games are against the NL West. A big road kick now would be huge.

Which brings up another point. The NL West still has 44% of their composite games against each other (79 intra-division games of 180 total for the season). That means there are 158 decisions to be made in direct competition with the West. Each team has 30-33 remaining games vs. the West. There are also 78 composite games against the Central Division with the Padres having the most at 21. The Dodgers have the most games remaining against the East with 13 of the 32 composite games left.

The Padres probably have the most favorable schedule left although they still have two 9 game road trips each going to two other time zones. The Rockies don't go East of the Mississippi after this road trip, and play all their games, except the season finale series against St. Louis in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.

Friday, July 9, 2010

The Wild, Wild West

The Rockies are finally hitting as expected, and had two tremendous comebacks against the Cardinals while the Giants pounded Milwaukee, bringing the NL West closer to a true four-team race.

The last weekend prior to the All-Star break brings the first-place San Diego Padres to town to face the (finally) hit-stroking Rockies. It includes the return of Jorge De La Rosa to the rotation, which would finally bring the Rockies planned 2010 Rotation to Full Strength. (My personal preference for the rotation after the AS Break--De La Rosa, Jimenez, Hammel, Francis, Cook). The Rockies are currently tied with the Mets for the Wild Card lead, but have a chance to chase down the Padres with another sweep. So far this year the Rockies lead the Series with San Diego 6-3.

A lot of local discussion lately has centered on whether Ubaldo Jimenez should start the All-Star game. He will certainly pitch early in the game regardless. The bigger travesty is that Catcher Miguel Olivo won't even be on the roster. I used to love the All-Star game, but they now have bigger rosters and seemingly more undeserving players going than ever. Why Votto wasn't on the roster to begin with was beyond me. Arguably he's better than Pujols this year, Votto certainly should have been picked over Gonzalez or Howard. And did they seriously only pick one player from the Padres for this game (Prior to Heath Bell Being Added)?

Thursday, June 24, 2010

The Current Run

You can only look back from the future. For all the belly aching on the radio and in the paper about the Rockies struggles scoring runs, blown bullpen outings, and the need to shake things up if the players don't respond, you have to look at reality once in a while.

Here are some things you wouldn't know if you only listened to the naysayers:

1. Rockies are in a tie for 3rd Place with the Dodgers in the NL West 4 games behind the Padres. In 2009 at this point they were in 3rd, but were 10 games behind the Dodgers.

2. The Rockies are still a game ahead of last year's pace at 38-33. After 71 games last year, the Rockies were 37-34. After 72 they were 37-35.

3. Last year through 71 games, the Rockies scored 4 runs or less in 35 games, and were 9-26. This year they have 7 more games with 4 or fewer runs and have won all 7 for a 16-26 record.

4. Last year as with this year through 71 games, the Rockes held their opponent to 4 runs or fewer 43 times. This year they have 2 more wins at 33-10 vs. 31-12 last year.

5. Since May 19, the Rockies have compiled a 19-12 record (.613) 3rd best in the National League. Only the Mets and Braves have better records over that period of time.

This not to say, there are no concerns, but it's certainly not time to overreact and panic. Fortunately, the writers and talk show hosts don't make the personnel decisions.

Monday, June 7, 2010

A Big Stretch

The Rockies enter an opportune time to make a move in the NL West race. Over the next 5 weeks leading up to the All-Star Break, the Rockies have 3 Homestands and two Road Trips. That's 23 of the next 32 at home. In the first two months of the season the Rockies have only played 24 home games and 32 on the Road. The Rockies can use this stretch to get their bats back and get some consistency on defense.

After the All-star Break the Rockies have an 11 game road trip and 25 out of 36 on the road.

Monday, May 31, 2010

Week in Review May 24-30

The Rockies swept the D-Backs and lost 2 out of 3 against the Dodgers to have a 4-2 home stand for the week. The Rockies outscored their opponents 36-19. Meanwhile The Padres went 4-2, The Giants were 5-1, Dodgers were 3-3 while the D-Backs were winless at 0-6.

This week the Rockies take to the road against the West including their first trip of the year to Phoenix completing a 12 game stretch. After this week, only 9 games remain against the West until August.

Results:
May 25--D-backs 2 ROCKIES 3
May 26--D-Backs 3 ROCKIES 7
May 27--D-Backs 2 ROCKIES 8
May 28--DODGERS 5 Rockies 4
May 29--Dodgers 3 ROCKIES 11
May 30--DODGERS 4 Rockies 3

This Week:
May 31--Rockies @ Giants
June 1--Rockies @ Giants
June 2--Rockies @ Giants
June 4--Rockies @ D-Backs
June 5--Rockies @ D-Backs
June 6--Rockies @ D-Backs

PLAYER OF THE WEEKCarlos Gonzalez got back on track hitting .421 including 3 HR's and knocking in 5 with 2 Swipes.

PITCHER OF THE WEEK
In 1972, I watched what up to this year was one of the most impressive pitching performances, when Steve Carlton won 27 games for a Phillies team that won only 59 games in total and had a 1.97 ERA. Whether Ubaldo Jimenez can get anywhere near 27 wins is doubtful, but his dominance so far this season is amazing. He threw 8 shutout innings against the D-Backs to lower his ERA to 0.88 and is now 9-1 after 10 starts.

Friday, May 28, 2010

How Sweep It Is!

All is right in the Rockies world as the Rockies accomplished 5 things it hadn't before in the 2010 season: 1. Winning streak longer than 3 (Currently 5), 2. A series sweep, 3. Hit A high water mark (so-far) of 3 games above .500, 4. Hit Back-to-back-to-back Home Runs and 5. Won at home on a Thursday, (Previously lost to the Mets on 4/15 and the D-Backs on 4/29.)

The Rockies are scoring runs, pounding Home Runs, and getting great pitching and defense for a few games and all the fretting is over (at least until they lose a game or two again.)

The Rockies dispatched the Arizona D-Backs in 3 games with the starting pitching trio of Jhoulys Chacin, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Hammel, combining to give up 4 runs in 19 1/3 innings (1.86 ERA) walking 5 and striking out 16.


Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook and Chacin face the Dodgers this weekend in a series that could move the Rockies into 2nd place in the Division.

Ubaldo Jiminez will start on Monday, giving him a chance to get his 10th win in the first two months of the Season. Is it possible for him to get two straight NL Pitcher of the Month awards with a 4-1 record and 0.973 ERA and 30 K's? Other contenders, Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Cincinnati 5-0, 1.846 ERA 40 K's, Mat Latos, San Diego, 3-1, 1.286 and 29 K's, and Jonathon Broxton, Los Angeles with 1-0 and 10 saves 2.189 ERA and 12 K's.

Troy Tulowitzki has 5 HR in his last 7 games, after hitting 1 in the first 40.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Week in Review May 17-23

The Rockies salvaged a 3-4 week and Road Trip by winning the last two games against the Royals in Kansas City. Elsewhere in the Division, this week's two opponents, the D-Backs and the Dodgers were 5-2, while the Padres went 4-3. The Giants were a dismal 1-6 for the week. The Rockies currently reside in 4th place in the NL West 4 games behind the Padres, 3 behind the Dodgers, .5 behind the Giants and 2.5 games ahead of the D-Backs. The Rockies spend the next two weeks battling NL West opponents.


Results:
May 17--Rockies 2 CUBS 4 (11 Innings)
May 18--Rockies 2 CUBS 6
May 19--Rockies 3 ASTROS 7
May 20--ROCKIES 4 Astros 0
May 21--Rockies 2 ROYALS 9
May 22--ROCKIES 3 Royals 0
May 23--ROCKIES 11 Royals 7

This Week--
May 25--D-Backs @ Rockies
May 26--D-Backs @ Rockies
May 27--D-Backs @ Rockies
May 28--Dodgers @ Rockies
May 29--Dodgers @ Rockies
May 30--Dodgers @ Rockies

PLAYER OF THE WEEK Troy Tulowitzki has hardly been in a slump this year, but he broke out some power last week hitting 3 home runs on the road. For the week Tulo was 10 for 28 (.357) with 3 dingers and 6 RBI's.

PITCHER OF THE WEEK Ubaldo and Francis had more great starts, but this week we are going to cite Manuel Corpas who has assumed the temporary closer role with gusto over the past couple weeks. Last week he threw for 3 innings and got a save.

STAT OF THE WEEK Rockies catchers lead the majors in caught stealing so far with 17 stops, and have thrown out 45% of 38 Steal attempts. Meanwhile Rockies pitchers have picked off 11 others. Smith, Hammel, Francis and Beimel each lead the team with 2 so far.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Four and Under

Jim Tracy mentioned yesterday that the Rockies had scored 4 runs or less in the past 8 games, but were still 4-4 during that stretch.

One way I track the Rockies results is by breaking them into runs scored and runs against groupings. One such grouping is 4 and Under.

This year the Rockies have had 25 games in which they scored 4 or fewer runs. They are 9-16 during those games. For comparison, in 2009, they had 24 games to this point where they had scored 4 and fewer runs, and wer 5-19 during those games.

The converse of this is to look at the games in which you hold your opponents to 4 and fewer runs. The Rockies in 2010 have done this 24 times and are 19-5 in those games vs. 23 games in 2009 where they were 14-9.

One thing I said about the Rockies, when I first came to Denver in 1997 during the heydays of the Blake Street Bombers, was that the Rockies were going to have to learn to win low scoring games, 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-2, 2-0, 3-1. It seems they are finally getting to that point. in 14 of the 25 games where the Rockies have scored 4 or fewer runs, they have also kept their opponent 4 or under, with 6 other games where the opponent has scored 5.

Eventually the hitting will break out with regularity and the Fast Food stand will be giving out Tacos all too frequently, but for now, take the positive of the team learning to win low scoring games.

When the Rockies have scored 5 or more runs, they are 12-6.

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Week in Review May 10-16

The Rockies got above .500 for the first time in 3 weeks on Sunday, completing a 4-2 rain-soaked broken schedule home stand to end up 19-18. The significance of 19 wins prior to game 46 has been an obstacle to the Rockies in the past 3 seasons, as every year after game 45, the Rockies had an 18-27 record. Meanwhile the Dodgers completed a 6-0 road sweep of Arizona and San Diego, Arizona went 1-5, San Francisco and San Diego were 3-3.

Results:

May 10--PHILLIES 9 Rockies 5
May 11--Phillies @ Rockies PPD
May 12--Phillies 3 ROCKIES 4 (10 Innings, 1st Game)
May 12--Phillies @ Rockies 2nd Game PPD
May 13--Nationals 14 Rockies 6 (8 Innings, Rain)
May 14--Nationals @ Rockies PPD
May 15--Nationals 2 ROCKIES 6 1st Game
May 15--Nationals 3 ROCKIES 4 2nd Game
May 16--Nationals 1 Rockies 2

This Week
May 17--Rockies @ Chicago
May 18--Rockies @ Chicago
May 19--Rockies @ Houston
May 20--Rockies @ Houston
May 21--Rockies @ Kansas City
May 22--Rockies @ Kansas City
May 23--Rockies @ Kansas City


PLAYER OF THE WEEKMiguel Olivo hit a Home Run to win Wednesday's game with the Phillies. He then went on to hit 2 more home runs during the week. He drove in 6 runs including one Sunday on a Sacrifice Fly. For the week Miguel went 9 for 18 to bat .500.

PITCHER OF THE WEEK
Ubaldo Jimenez probably had the best start of the week, but this week's award has to go to Jeff Francis whose long-awaited return came Sunday, before 40,000+ fans. Jeff let the first batter he faced score, but then shut down the Nationals over 7 innings.

STAT OF THE WEEK Of the 179 runs the Rockies have scored this year, nearly 50% (88) of them are in the first 3 innings and only 19% (34) have been scored after the 6th. Last year they scored 32% in the first 3 and 32% after the 6th with 36% of their runs in the middle innings. But after 37 games last year, the percentages were 38%, 34% 28%

Friday, May 14, 2010

Marking Time

It's always funny watching the reactions of fans to the day to day ups and downs of a sports team, but it's even funnier to watch sports reporters especially the beat reporters do it.

After Olivo's HR beat the Phillies they latched onto Jim Tracy's "turning point" comment and mused about the coming good times. And after the Rockies literally got swamped by the Nationals last night, it's all about the starting pitching, and any momentum from Wednesday is gone, ignoring the fact that the Bullpen gave up 8 of the 14 runs in what I will refer to as "the game that should have never started."

First of all here is the "Turning Point" comment according to Dave Krieger of the Post: "There are games that spearhead a club and trigger a club in the direction that you know it's more than capable of going," Tracy said. "And this one may be just that one that we were looking for. We're not at full strength just yet, but as I've said, nobody's complaining about it."

Key words: "may be". Or "Maybe not".

Truth is, the Rockies have neither been sensational or awful in the first 6 weeks. Over the first 34 games, they have never been better than 2 games over .500 and never worse than 2 games under .500. Their longest winning streak has been 3 games, and their longest losing streak is also 3 games. They have yet sweep a series, but have yet to be swept.

You could say the Rockies have no real direction so far.

The Starting Rotation should get back to some semblance of order this weekend, dropping out Greg Smith and adding Jason Hammel and Jeff Francis. Give them each a couple of starts, see how Chacin rebounds in his next start and by the time the Rockies return from Kansas City next weekend, we'll have a better idea about the direction they are going.

PHANTOM TRANSACTIONS
It was reported Wednesday in the MLB Transaction report that Hammel had been activated from the DL and then Mora was on the DL saving Eric Young from being sent to the minors. It turns out now that EY is going on the DL. But none of the above transactions have actually taken place (although the first two appear in the Rockies Transactions on their website


When all is said and done though, the Rockies current 25 Man Roster is this:
Starting Pitchers
Jimenez,
Cook,
Chacin,
Rogers,
Smith,

Relief Pitchers
Beimel,
Belisle,
Daley,
Betancourt,
Flores,
Corpas

Catchers
Olivo,
Phillips

Infielders
Helton,
Barmes,
Tulowitzki,
Stewart,
Giambi,
Mora

Outfielders
Gonzalez,
Fowler,
Hawpe,
Smith,
Spillborghs,
Young

Hammel and Francis should be added this weekend with Young, and one of the relievers deactivating.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Five For Five

Prior to today, Miguel Olivo had had 5 hits in one game. It was back in 2007 when his team at the time, the Florida Marlins, took on his future team the Kansas City Royals. Olivo, had 3 singles and two Doubles in that game drove in a run and scored another as the Marlins won 9-8. Also noteworthy 3 of his hits including both doubles came against current teammate, Jorge De La Rosa.

Wednesday in what was to be the 1st game of a twin bill, Miguel Olivo again had 5 hits in one game including the 10th inning game winning home run that ended it. Once again he had a run and a RBI and also had a double. This time his first 3 hits, 2 Singles and a Double came off one of the best pitchers in the game, Roy Halladay. The game had to be a big boost to Olivo, who had gone 2 for 28 prior to the game.

Tonight's game was Postponed because of the weather, and looking at the schedule, the best date to make it up would be September 2nd, when the Phillies will be returning home from a West Coast Road trip and the Rockies will be in the middle of a trip to California. The one hitch with that date is that it would require the Phillies to play 23 straight days which would require a waiver from the players. The other possible date would be August 2nd, when the Rockies are already home and the Phillies are on the road between Washington and Miami, but that would put both teams beyond the three weeks without an off day rule.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Week in Review May 3-9

The Rockies recovered in the 5th week and salvaged a 3-3 finish in the final 6 games of the longest road trip of the first half. Their two opponents the Padres and the Dodgers also went 3-3, while the D-Backs had the only losing record at 3-4 while the Giants went 4-2.

Results:
May 3--ROCKIES 5 Padres 2
May 4--Rockies 2 PADRES 3
May 5--ROCKIES 6 Padres 5 (12 Innings)
May 7--Rockies 5 DODGERS 6
May 8--ROCKIES 8 Dodgers 0
May 9--Rockies 0 DODGERS 2

This Week
May 10--Phillies @ Rockies
May 11--Phillies @ Rockies
May 12--Phillies @ Rockies
May 13--Nationals @ Rockies
May 14--Nationals @ Rockies
May 15--Nationals @ Rockies
May 16--Nationals @ Rockies


*********************************************
PLAYER OF THE WEEK:It took 6 games on the road trip, but the Rockies finally had a Home Run in the 12th inning at San Diego. Ian Stewart went on to hit another one on Saturday. For the week Stewart batted .352 with 5 RBI.

PITCHER OF THE WEEK: Ubaldo Jimenez finally lost a game, but for one bad bounce, he could have left another game giving up 0 runs. Ubaldo pitched twice going 7 innings in each, giving up 2 runs (one in each game), and struck out 18 total in the two games. But you still have to mention the outing by Jhoulys Chacin who followed his first start with 7 1/3 innings, 6 hits and striking out 7.

STAT OF THE WEEK Ian Stewart not only has all 6 of his home runs hit on the Road this year, but all of his extra base hits have been on the road including 4 doubles and a triple.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Mile Post 1/6

One of my favorite ways to measure a baseball season is in 6ths. One reason is that it's a significant number of games (27) and divides evenly into the 162 game schedule. Unlike 1/4 which is 40.5 games, 1/3 which is 54 games or halves at 81 games, it essentially breaks the season into full months.

The Rockies passed the 1/6th mark of the 2010 season on Tuesday night, compiling a 13-14 record in the first month of the season. It's their best start at the 1/6th mark since 2006 when they were 15-12. The past 3 seasons, they were 11-16 at 27 games into the season.

The Rockies are currently 3-3 on their California swing and longest Road trip of the first half. After the weekend series in LA, the Rockies will have 7 home 7 away, 6 home, 6 away and 13 of 16 at home. Altogether that's 26 of 42 at home. They are also 4-5 on this 12 game stretch against the West (and 6-6 for the season). They will take another two week break from the West before playing an additional 12 games against their division foes.

You have to like the approach the Rockies took to get runs in San Francisco and San Diego. It started Friday Night with Eric Young and Carlos Gonzalez stealing bases in the 1st inning. It paid off on Sunday, when Jason Giambi stole a base, and Melvin Mora tried to score on a Paul Phillips single to Left, but Spilborghs got cut down on a cutoff. Then on Monday, Helton attempting a bunt, and Tulowitzki following it up with a successful bunt, that put two runners in position to score on a single by Gonzalez.

It doesn't always pay off right now, but that is the kind of adaptive strategy that can win some ballgames over the course of the season that could make the diffence in the standings. It shows that these players are willing to do what it takes to win ball games, and not just try to jack balls out of the park.

Speaking of Home Runs, Ian Stewart's dinger in the 12th inning Wednesday night, was the first of the road trip. Sometimes THAT's good to see also.