Missed Opportunities

Over the past week the Rockies had a decent chance to win 7 out of 7 games, but in the end only won 2.   The biggest reason being the batters failed to capitalize on Run scoring situations.   But here's an overlooked secret:  The Rockies haven't been scoring well all year.

Through 54 games, the Rockies have scored 4 runs or less in 28 of the games.  Their record is 6-22 in those games.   In the other 26 games where they have scored 5 runs or more, they are 22-4.  

The critics are out again with this slump.   One clueless guy applauded the lack of turnout to last night's game as evidence the Denver fans won't turn out anymore for bad play.  Really?   Last night's attendance was 600 less than the night before and about 2,000 less than Houston drew for TWO games on Monday and Tuesday.  It's also 3,000 MORE than their worst season of average from 2005 23,634.    It's 6,000 less than the Rockies Season Average.    There have been 8 games with a lower attendance including the game against Arizona Monday a week ago.

The headline writer labeled the Rockies "Embarrassed".   Sure it wasn't great to lose 3 of 4 to the AL's worst team, but let's be realistic.  The Rockies recently beat the World Champion San Francisco Giants in 3 of 4, and that didn't get labeled with superlatives.  

The Rockies are still in the Division Hunt, and are still playing better than .500 ball.   They had a good April and a not-so-good May.   It may turn out that this team isn't a contender, but it is definitely an improvement over last year especially in the Pitching.  I think the fans are supporting the product and we haven't even started the summer or had really good weather yet.

I don't believe we have seen the best in this team yet, and we may not have seen it's worst.  Will the first 3rd of the season  be a learning experience, the best or the worst in this team?   Let's not jump off the bandwagagon too quickly while we are still in the running.

Marking Time

The Rockies after 47 games worked their way to a 3-way tie in the NL West standings with the Giants, D-Backs and Rockies all having identical 26-21 records.

Four weeks ago on April 25th, the Rockies held a slim 1 game lead over both teams at 14-8 vs. 13-9.   Which means over the past 4 weeks all 3 teams have played .500 baseball.  (Rockies 12-13; Giants/D-Backs 13-12).

One or more of the teams will break away soon.  Which one?  And could the Padres get into the mix?

Let's start with the D-Backs:  Coming off a 6 game road trip they head home for 4 days/5 games against the Padres and Texas, before heading  to Texas, Chicago and St. Louis.   All in All  they play 15 of their next 23 on the Road.

The Giants meanwhile get to stay home for another week, hosting the Rockies and then playing 4 games against Oakland 2A/2H followed by a 3 game road trip to St. Louis, home for two against Toronto, followed by a 9 game road trip to Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta.   Altogether:  7 home 14 away.

Meanwhile the Rockies have a 5 game road trip to SF, and Houston, 5 games at home against Houston, and  LA, A road "trip" to Cincy for 3 and then a 10 game home stand.  15 H/8 A

In Summary, the Rockies  have the same amount of home games over the next 3.5 weeks that Arizona and San Francisco have combined.   The Rockies are the team that has the advantage for a few weeks at least.

Next week introduces Rivalry Week where for the first time all 30 MLB teams will play interleague games at the same time with home and home 2 game sets with their "Natural" Rival.  For the Giants they stay home and play Oakland, While the D-Backs take on Texas and the Rockies get the Astros.   This is really the only major diversion from a balanced schedule with one team.   This year I would rather play the Astros at 20 games under .500 than the A's or the Rangers who are at the top of the AL West.

Perspective

The Rockies took 3 of 4 from the Giants over the weekend, stopping a skid of losing 4 straight series and 5 of  the previous 6.  This week they take on the Division Leading Diamondbacks before heading to San Francisco to take on the Giants again.

Let's face it--the Giants were horrible this week and the Rockies had a chance to sweep the series (or on the other hand they could have ended up with a split.)

Back to the Giants.  It's hard to imagine a worse week for them where they gave up 52 runs in 6 games, and had 13 errors, 7 in back to back games with the Rockies Friday and Saturday.  They also scored 28 runs and managed to come back on Thursday from a 6-0 deficit to win.

So even perceived good teams (The Giants did win the World Series last year) have rough stretches.  Is the starting pitching fall apart?    Is the fielding going to continue to commit 2 errors per game.  Probably not.

The Rockies are currently tied with the Giants for 2nd, one game behind the D-Backs who now come into Coors Field winning 9 of their last 13.  In the past week they outscored their opponents 19-17 in winning 4 of 6.  But they gave up 10 runs in one game on Monday, and scored 9 runs in one game on Friday.

All that is to keep the Rockies season in perspective.  It's May 20th.  This team is showing great promise and is likely at this point to win more games than last season, and possibly even more than 2011.    Their pitching across the board is holding up better, their hitting is solid throughout the lineup.   And they have survived a couple of key players on the disabled list.  

And for now at least they are in the thick of the race.

At the Quarter-Pole

Last night the Rockies completed the first quarter of the season (40 games) with a 21-19 record.  That includes an 10-12 record in the 22 games played on the road and 11-7 in the 18 Home games.   The good news is that the second quarter will consist of  22 of the next 30 games played at Coors Field.  Followed by a 9 game road trip to the East before making up a game with the Mets to finish out the first half of the season.  This includes 17 NL West games-- 14 at home, and 3 in San Francisco.

The good news of the first quarter is the Rockies have been better than expected.   Last year they were 8-14 on the Road to start the season, and 15-25 overall.   The Rockies actually improved slightly over the rest of the season as the first quarter expanded for the entire season would have been 61-101.    Last year strangely, they were pretty consistent in each Quarter.
1) 15-25
2) 16-25 (31-50)
3) 17-23 (48-73)
4) 16-25 (64-98)

Admittedly, that's a bit unusual to be that consistent.   Or is it?

The Rockies Recent history shows that there is a lot of consistency in quarters.  Here are the wins by quarters from 2003-2012
2012--15, 16, 17, 16 --Total 64
2011--22, 17, 17, 17 --Total 73
2010--19, 24, 19, 21-- Total 83
2009--16, 26, 25, 25-- Total 92
2008--15, 17, 21, 21-- Total 74
2007--17, 22, 23, 27-- Total 89* After 162 Games
2006--22, 20, 17, 17-- Total 76
2005--12, 16, 17, 22-- Total 67
2004--17, 15, 22, 14-- Total 68
2003--19, 22, 18, 14-- Total 74

As you can see, in every single season the Rockies have had at least two quarters with total wins within plus or minus 2 wins.  In 5 or half the years, the Rockies have had three or more quarters of a similar win total plus or minus 2.  In two years, 2006 and 2008, the Rockies had 2 different pairs of quarters, and of course last year all 4 quarters were consistent.   Also on a negative note, each season except for 2010 has contained at least one quarter that has 17 or fewer wins.

What does this tell us about 2013?  Nothing yet, except that we can expect at least one more quarter that has 20-24 wins, 2 quarters that are below 20 wins within two wins of each other and/or two quarters that have more than 24 wins.

How does that extrapolate to the rest of the season?
Let's say the Rockies have one quarter of 17 wins as history shows.  That would give them a total of 38 wins in half a season. For the other two quarters the Rockies would need a total of 43 wins (21, 22?) to be .500. They would need 52 (26, 26?) to get to 90 wins.

But if the Rockies worst quarter was this one, and they get 23, 23, 23 the rest of the way, they will also have 90 wins.

The bad news for the Rockies is they are 8-15 after starting the season 13-4.  But overall the results were good for the first quarter.

The Division leaders are the Giants who had 23 wins in their first quarter.  And they come to town tonight.

Ankle Breakers

It's always amusing to me when the writers at the only paper left in Denver try writing about baseball.  Even the beat writers tend to get caught up in the ups and downs and go on emotions rather than reality.

From reading the paper this weekend you'd think the Rockies won the World Series last year instead of losing 98 games.   It's one thing for the fans to think a 13-4 start is going to continue over the entire season, and that a 6-11 skid (now 7-13) is horrible (Gasp!), or (OMG!)  the hitting has failed to hit in 3 straight games!   Whoa is me!  And today's gem from one of the beat writers

"'That's baseball.'  I've heard the quote used ad nauseam in the Rockies' clubhouse over last few days as their slide begins to get serious."

It's enough to make me regret renewing my subscription this week.  It's time for the so-called sportswriters there to get serious and get a grip on reality.  

1)  The Rockies 13-4 start extrapolated to a 123 win season.  No team has ever continued on that pace for a season.

2)  The Rockies Current record of 20-17 after today's game translates to an 88 win season.  If the Rockies win 88 games for this season, it would be a 24 win turnaround from last season, and would probably exceeds these guys expectations at the beginning of the season.  Going into Friday's game, the pace was at 90 wins, which would win the division most years.

3)  A perfect example of "That's Baseball" is when a team throws two near perfect games against a team and   then gets nearly no-hit the 3rd day.  

Don't get too emotionally tied to individual wins and losses.  The Rockies have a history of going on extended winning runs as well as extended losing streaks.  Oh, wait...That's pretty much every team. 

More Reality...The Rockies are beating the bad teams and struggling against the good teams.  They are currently 6-13  against teams over .500 and 14-4 against teams with losing records.  For comparison the Giants are 11-5 against winning teams and 12-10 against losing teams.  

More reality...35 of the Rockies first 37 starts have been by 5 pitchers who started the season.  Last year they got only 71 starts the entire season from their starting 5.   Halfway there.  

Even more reality...Despite the recent hitting slump, the Rockies are still 2nd in the league in Runs per Game, and Home Runs; 1st in Batting Average, 3rd in On Base Percentage; and only 9th in Strikeouts.

Why the rising expectations?  This team has a chance to get back to respectability.  Take emotion out of it.  This team is doing well, and still exceeding most expectations.  If in August the Rockies still have a winning record, that's the point we should consider upping the expectations to contending and maybe making the playoffs.  

One step at a time.  Keep it Real.  

Managers Starts

The 2013 Rockies have gotten off to a 13-4 start under Walt Weiss, which is the best start by the Rockies from the beginning of the season, which got me thinking:  How good of a start did Jim Tracy have when he took over the team in May, 2009.  

Turns out he had an identical 13-4 start.  The Rockies were 18-28 on May 28th, when they replaced Clint Hurdle with Jim Tracy.    The Rockies then won their next 2 before losing the next 4.  But then went on an 11 game winning streak before losing their next game and go on a 6 game winning streak.  After 17 games under Tracy they were 13-4, after 24 they were 19-5.  In his first 30 games he was 22-8 on his way to a 73-42 finish in his first season.

Clint Hurdle also had a decent start when he took over for Buddy Bell on April 26, 2002.   His team won 11 of his first 17 games.  He would eventually lead them to a 24-10 record (30-26 overall) before a losing streak would bring them back below .500.

Buddy Bell started 2000 with an 8-9 record, after 17 games and 14-16 in his first 30 games.  Jim Leyland in his only season in 1999 was 7-10 in his first 17 games with the Rockies and 13-17 in his first 30.  And Don Baylor in the Rockies inaugural season of 1993 had the Rockies at 6-11 after 17 games and 12-28 after 30.

2013 vs. 2011

The Rockies have started off with a bang this year winning a Team record 7 straight home games to start a season, and overall record of 12-4.   Just two short years ago, the Rockies got off to a similar start going 17-8 in April.    On April 22nd of that year I stated:

It probably sounds absurd to say that a team that is 13-5, needs to play better, but it really feels that way with the Rockies. But then looking at the stats, it seems like they are playing well, it just doesn't feel like it. They are 2nd in the league in runs scored per game, at 5.50 rpg. They are 9th in the league in Average, but 3rd in OBP. It also seems like they are striking out less often, but in reality, their K's per game are slightly higher than last year. And with all the talk of Dexter Fowler's improvement, he leads the team in strikeouts with 22. That's way too many for a leadoff hitter.

The pitching has not been too bad, but it's only average in League terms. ERA is 9th in the league at 3.74. Strikeouts are 12th, Walks are 8th. They are 1st in Wild Pitches. 

I point this out not to disparage the team as a half-empty perspective but actually to look at it from a half-full perspective. The wins have depended a lot on their defense and league leading Double Plays. But the 13-5 record including 7 straight wins, has not been because of any kind of solid roll, but because key things happen in each game. 

When the Rockies put their hitting and or pitching together consistently with the fielding, this team could go on a serious winning streak. 

At that time their fielding was carrying them (of course, that's also dependent on pitching).  A couple weeks later, the bubble would burst and the Rockies would go 56-81 after May 1st and 64-98 in 2012 (a combined 121-179 in Jim Tracy's last 300 games.)

This year feels different.  Obviously everything is clicking at once, good pitching, good hitting and good fielding, and there will come a point in the season that one of those will have to pick up the others.  But this year the entire lineup is contributing, the starting pitching is going longer in games, which makes the bullpen stronger, and the players are also making great plays.  

And ultimately this team may not even contend.  The toll of 162 games certainly has it's ups and downs, but the makeup of this team seems to be fun to watch.  

And for now we can ride the wave....

This Day in Rockies History April 9, 1993

For the first time MLB comes to Denver as 80,227 pack Mile High Stadium.   The Rockies after an 0-2 start in New York, reward the crowd scoring 4 in the first inning including a lead-off home run by Eric Young against the Montreal Expos.  The Rockies would add 7 more runs over the next 6 innings.  Bryn Smith the Rockies starter pitched 7 scoreless innings.   The Expos would score 4 runs in the 9th innings, but the Rockies win the game 11-4, to kick off a successful Inaugural Season in Denver.

This Day in History April 8

The Rockies have a 7-10 record on April 8th over the years, but have played extra innings in 4 of them--all of them losses and all of them within the past 10 years.

2003--St. Louis beat the Rockies at Coors Field 15-12 in 13 innings on a 3 Run homer by Mike Matheny.
2004--The Rockies lose in Arizona 6-5 in 11 Innings.  Richie Sexson hit a two run walk-off homer after Tyler Greene hit a solo shot in the top of the 11th.
2007--The Padres defeat the Rockies 2-1 at Petco with a Kevin Kouzmanoff single knocking in Khalil Greene after Greene had tripled. (157 games later the Rockies would get payback in extra innings).
2011--Pirates beat the Rockies in the 14th as Jose Tabata knocks in Josh Rodriguez with a wallk off double.

Running on All Cylinders

There are three differences between the first week of the 2013 season compared to the first week of the 2012 season for the Rockies:

1. They Hit
2. They Pitch
3. They Field

2012's slow start which became a season long issue was trying to get Hitting, Pitching and Fielding lined up at the same time.   The Rockies have scored 39 runs in the first 6 games of 2013 ranging from 4-9 in each game.   In 2012, they had scored 29 runs, but 17 of them were in one game.  The other 5 games were, 5, 3, 2, 0, 2.  Pitching  gave up 32 runs in 2012, compared to 18 this year.   And in Fielding the Rockies have committed only 3 errors in the first 6 games this year, while having 3 alone in Game 2 in 2012, and 8 total after 6.

Sure it's a great start and the Rockies are exuding a lot more confidence than when we last saw them last October, and why not.  .333 Batting (.353 on the road!) ; 13 HR's 7 Doubles.  2.80 ERA, 2.2 K's to Walks ratio, 3 HR's allowed.   Fielding 3 errors .988 pct, and only 1 unearned run given up.

There will be ups and downs throughout the season, but the first week will be the benchmark to strive for.  

Aces Low--It really seemed strange to watch the scores yesterday as numerous #1 Starters took to the mound and were slammed in their second starts:

         Matt Cain--3 2/3 IP 22.091 ERA
         David Price--5 IP 14.4 ERA
         Cole Hamels--5 2/3 IP 12.706 ERA
         Jered Weaver--5 IP 9.000 ERA
         Stephen Strasburg--5 1/3 IP 10.125 ERA

Meanwhile Jhoulys Chacin pitched at Coors Field and gave up one run in 6 2/3 innings.

Goose Eggs in Frisco:  As if playing at AT&T Park wasn't daunting enough for the Rockies, the 3 Giants pitchers Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Zito that the Rox will face this week have a COMBINED 0.00 ERA although there were 2 unearned runs in there.  Maybe all of them will turn into Matt Cain this week.

Rockies Dingers:  The Rockies have a 5 game winning streak which matches their longest in 2012 which happened twice.  In the 2011 the Rockies longest winning streak was 7 which also happened near the beginning of the season 4/9 to 4/15...5 Rockies have hit home runs with Dexter Fowler leading with 4.  Wilin Rosario has 3 and Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki each have 2.

This Day In Rockies History April 7, 1997

In the Rockies Home Opener for 1997, the Rockies returning from a 4-2 opening road trip and pounced on the Cincinnati Reds and Dave Burba 13-2.   The Blake Street Bombers scored 5 runs in both the 1st and 4th innings to put the game out of reach.

This game was also my first game at Coors Field as I flew in that morning to make the game.   The following day I had a Job interview in Denver, and within a month I had moved to Colorado and started working here.    I remember it was a beautiful sunny day in the 50's.  It was also my first MLB game since 1992 and revived my interest in MLB after the strike of 1994-95.  

This Day in Rockies History April 5, 1993

History has a start and this April 5, 1993 is the official start of the History of the Colorado Rockies.

In New York's Shea Stadium, the Rockies took the field for the first time for a Regular Season game.  Eric Young led off the game, and David Nied was the starter.  The Rockies only got 4 hits but no runs and lost to the Mets 3-0.   They would score their first run on Dante Bichette's HR (first in Rockies History) in their 2nd game but only get one other hit, before finally arriving in Denver for their Home opener.

Opening Day at Home

After a successful road series the Rockies open at home for the 21st time and 19th at Coors Field.

Spirits are high after taking two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee.  A team batting average of .353 ON THE ROAD and a Team ERA at 3.90.  41 hits 8 Homers's but only 2 Doubles.  19 runs.    The only pitching disappointments was Jorge De La Rosa's 4 1/3 inning outing on Tuesday, giving up 4 runs, and Wilton Lopez' Rockies debut on Monday giving up 3 runs in one inning.  The Rockies as a team only gave up 7 walks in 3 games.

After 20 years of watching the Rockies, you realize they must show more consistency on the road.  Next week they head to two Pitchers parks in San Francisco and San Diego.  No one expects them to hit .353 in either place but the key will be getting base hits and moving runners.  More doubles will help, but it's a good start.

Now to Coors Field.  Play BALL!

Opening Day 2013

Baseball is back and so are the Rockies.

Personnel-wise the team has not changed much.   New Manager Walt Weiss and new hitting coach Dante Bichette brings back history as they make their coaching debut, with much of the same team that lost a team record 98 games last year.

So why should there be optimism?  In two words Health and Experience.

A lot of kids like Pacheco, Rosario, and Rutledge got major experience last season due to key injuries to Tulowitzki, Helton, Hernandez, and Cuddyer among others.

Tulo of course needs to stay healthy for the entire year to give the Rockies a chance.

And then there is the age old problem--pitching.  The Rockies had to work with a makeshift rotation after their entire rotation went down for one reason or another.  Guthrie, Chacin, Moyer, Nicasio, and Pomeranz were the initial starting rotation last year.  Moyer was released, Guthrie first hurt then traded.   Chacin and Nicasio hurt, and Pomeranz wasn't quite ready.  By June the Rockies had reaquired Jeff Francis and was using a makeshift piggyback system, that wasn't quite successful, because the pitchers couldn't throw strikes and keep the pitch counts down.

Chacin had a rough spring, Francis is back, De La Rosa and Nicasio are making comebacks.  The fifth starter is Journeyman Jon Garland, who most recently was with the Dodgers in 2011.   Chris Volstad is another starter acquired over the winter waits in the Bullpen if one of the five falter.

But for now the Rockies are 0-0.  Play Ball!

Jim Tracy Resigns as Rockies Manager

Jim Tracy resigned today as the Rockies Manager after nearly 4 years at the helm.  He compiled a 294-308 record with the Rockies and led them to their best record of 92-70 in 2009 and their worst record at 64-98 this season.

I have pondered the status of Tracy for most of the 2nd half of the year, and still could not conclude whether he deserved to stay or needed to go.  It's difficult to say what type of skipper the Rockies need someone who can motivate them in thier longer slumps than either Clint Hurdle or Jim Tracy had done over the past several years.

I thank Jim Tracy for his service to the Rockies and wish him well.  He certainly deserves another managing opportunity in the future.