The Rockies had two huge wins at the beginning of the week having comeback wins against San Francisco and the Dodgers both in extra innings, but failed to win after that and had their first 5 game losing streak in 2009 to finish the week 2-5.
8/24-ROCKIES 6 Giants 4 14 Innings
8/25-ROCKIES 5 Dodgers 4 10 Innings
8/26-Dodgers 6 ROCKIES 1
8/27-Dodgers 3 ROCKIES 2
8/29-Giants 2 ROCKIES 0
8/30-Giants 5 ROCKIES 3
8/31-Giants 9 ROCKIES 5
Meanwhile the Giants had a 5-2 week, to tie the Rockies at the top of the Wild Card standings. The Dodgers went 4-2 to gain 2.5 games on the Rockies in the NL West.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Negative Carryovers
Prior to June 3rd (The start of modern Rockies History, by the way) The Rockies did something 5 times this season, and something they hadn't done since then--until last night. (That's why you pay the big bucks to follow this blog!)
What is it that they did? Have a losing streak carry over into the next series.
Previous times it happened:
April 11-13: Phillies/Cubs
April 19-20: Dodgers/D-Backs
April 22-15: D-Backs/Dodgers
May 7-9: Giants/Marlins
May 31-June 3: Padres/Astros
That's 5 times in 18 series that that happened.
Since then it's been 24 series before it happened again. In other words the Rockies have been pretty consistent in either winning the last game of one series or the first game of the next series. Even the Dodgers have lost last and first 8 times this season.
On the other hand, the Rockies had 4 times early in the season (before June 3) that they won both the last game of one series and the first game of the next series and 11 times after June 3rd.
This marks the 2nd time since June 3rd that the Rockies have lost 3 games in a row. The first time was against the Mets at the end of last month.
Rockies are 4-4 over this 10 game stretch with the NL West Leaders.
What is it that they did? Have a losing streak carry over into the next series.
Previous times it happened:
April 11-13: Phillies/Cubs
April 19-20: Dodgers/D-Backs
April 22-15: D-Backs/Dodgers
May 7-9: Giants/Marlins
May 31-June 3: Padres/Astros
That's 5 times in 18 series that that happened.
Since then it's been 24 series before it happened again. In other words the Rockies have been pretty consistent in either winning the last game of one series or the first game of the next series. Even the Dodgers have lost last and first 8 times this season.
On the other hand, the Rockies had 4 times early in the season (before June 3) that they won both the last game of one series and the first game of the next series and 11 times after June 3rd.
This marks the 2nd time since June 3rd that the Rockies have lost 3 games in a row. The first time was against the Mets at the end of last month.
Rockies are 4-4 over this 10 game stretch with the NL West Leaders.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Take Nothing For Granted
Sure, we still cannot find ways to win against Los Angeles, and yeah, we slipped back a notch this week (or another way to look at it is we've gained a half game since last Friday). And sure the Dodgers only play 9 more games against teams currently with winning records the rest of the season. Does that mean we should throw in the towel on the West Title?
I am reminded tonight that the answer is no. Baseball is a strange game, has many ups and downs and just when you count your chickens, a nightmare hatches.
Take the 2007 NY Mets--They held a 3.5 game lead with 14 games to play, 6 against 66-83 Washington, 7 against 65-84 Florida and a make-up game against 70-78 St. Louis. The Phillies meanwhile had 7 against Washington, 3 at St. Louis and 3 against 76-73 Atlanta. At the time it looked like the Mets were shoo-ins for the Playffs. But the Phillies managed to compile a 9-4 record while the Mets finished 5-9. The Phillies won the East Division by 1 game.
So tonight I look at the scoreboard and see St. Louis lost to Houston, the Mets beat Florida, and Arizona pound San Francisco, Cincinnati beat Milwaukee and Washington beat the Cubs--all on the road. Meanwhile Pittsburgh beat the Phillies late for the 2nd night in a row in Pittsburgh. Earlier this week the Padres took two in Atlanta before falling tonight.
So it's just a reminder that anything can happen, and the focus for the Rockies shouldn't change. Go out and win the next game, and let everything else take care of itself. Following the Giants series the Rockies play 13 games teams with losing records before they head to San Francisco again. The more games they win in that stretch will keep the pressure on the Dodgers to keep on winning, as well as the teams chasing them for the Wild Card race.
I am reminded tonight that the answer is no. Baseball is a strange game, has many ups and downs and just when you count your chickens, a nightmare hatches.
Take the 2007 NY Mets--They held a 3.5 game lead with 14 games to play, 6 against 66-83 Washington, 7 against 65-84 Florida and a make-up game against 70-78 St. Louis. The Phillies meanwhile had 7 against Washington, 3 at St. Louis and 3 against 76-73 Atlanta. At the time it looked like the Mets were shoo-ins for the Playffs. But the Phillies managed to compile a 9-4 record while the Mets finished 5-9. The Phillies won the East Division by 1 game.
So tonight I look at the scoreboard and see St. Louis lost to Houston, the Mets beat Florida, and Arizona pound San Francisco, Cincinnati beat Milwaukee and Washington beat the Cubs--all on the road. Meanwhile Pittsburgh beat the Phillies late for the 2nd night in a row in Pittsburgh. Earlier this week the Padres took two in Atlanta before falling tonight.
So it's just a reminder that anything can happen, and the focus for the Rockies shouldn't change. Go out and win the next game, and let everything else take care of itself. Following the Giants series the Rockies play 13 games teams with losing records before they head to San Francisco again. The more games they win in that stretch will keep the pressure on the Dodgers to keep on winning, as well as the teams chasing them for the Wild Card race.
No Time To Panic
Yes, it's true we currently have a hole in the #1 starter position. The Rockies lost their 5th straight game with the #1 Spot going whether it was Cook, Chacin or Fogg in the spot. The last time the Rockies won in that spot was July 31st in Cincinnati. Since then the Rockies are 16-3 from the #2-#5 slots, while 0-5 from the #1 Slot, which really now is #5.
The Rockies can skip the slot until next Saturday, or even fill it in the regularly scheduled spot next Tuesday, when Rosters expand. When Cook was unable to pitch, the Rockies tried to plug it with long relievers, which didn't work out so well. And even if the new starter can't pitch very long, the expanded roster will allow more relievers to pitch, so that the bullpen is no longer overloaded.
Here's a list of former Rockies pitchers at Colorado Springs:
Adam Eaton
Matt Belisle
Joel Peralta
Randy Flores
Jhoulys Chacin
There's also Russ Ortiz and Brandon Hynick as potential starters. For now, the next 8 games can be pitched by the other starters.
UPDATE: The Rockies are looking at Brad Penny released by the Red Sox last night and should clear waivers by Monday, as a possible addition. Penny pitched for Jim Tracy in LA. He wants to make the playoff roster however, and I'm not sure the Rockies should commit to that, although they wouldn't have to make that decision until October.
The Rockies also ran into a very hot pitcher last night in Randy Wolf. Today's starter, Vincente Padilla isn't even yet on the Dodgers Roster, and a win today would still put the Rockies in a good position and keep the pressure on the Dodgers. A loss wouldn't end the Rockies chances either. You also have to remember that the Rockies starting pitching has been pretty solid this year as Cook, Jimenez, Marquis, De La Rosa and Hammel have started 123 of the Rockies 127 games with Hammel having the fewest at 23 and Jimenez having the most at 26.
Juan Rincon was impressive in his 4 inning return last night, and Matt Herges also did a nice job in the last two innings, to save the bullpen.
Eric Young, Jr. had two hits last night 2 more hits but got picked off in the first inning for the 2nd time. Still looking forward to seeing him run.
The Rockies can skip the slot until next Saturday, or even fill it in the regularly scheduled spot next Tuesday, when Rosters expand. When Cook was unable to pitch, the Rockies tried to plug it with long relievers, which didn't work out so well. And even if the new starter can't pitch very long, the expanded roster will allow more relievers to pitch, so that the bullpen is no longer overloaded.
Here's a list of former Rockies pitchers at Colorado Springs:
Adam Eaton
Matt Belisle
Joel Peralta
Randy Flores
Jhoulys Chacin
There's also Russ Ortiz and Brandon Hynick as potential starters. For now, the next 8 games can be pitched by the other starters.
UPDATE: The Rockies are looking at Brad Penny released by the Red Sox last night and should clear waivers by Monday, as a possible addition. Penny pitched for Jim Tracy in LA. He wants to make the playoff roster however, and I'm not sure the Rockies should commit to that, although they wouldn't have to make that decision until October.
The Rockies also ran into a very hot pitcher last night in Randy Wolf. Today's starter, Vincente Padilla isn't even yet on the Dodgers Roster, and a win today would still put the Rockies in a good position and keep the pressure on the Dodgers. A loss wouldn't end the Rockies chances either. You also have to remember that the Rockies starting pitching has been pretty solid this year as Cook, Jimenez, Marquis, De La Rosa and Hammel have started 123 of the Rockies 127 games with Hammel having the fewest at 23 and Jimenez having the most at 26.
Juan Rincon was impressive in his 4 inning return last night, and Matt Herges also did a nice job in the last two innings, to save the bullpen.
Eric Young, Jr. had two hits last night 2 more hits but got picked off in the first inning for the 2nd time. Still looking forward to seeing him run.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
2009 vs. 2007
When people talk about the run the Rockies had in 2007 most of the talk including among Rockies fans centers around the 15 games at the end of the season to take us on a breathtaking ride into the playoffs and to the World Series.
But that run really started on May 21st, when the Rockies at 18-27 in 5th place and 7 games behind the Dodgers and 8.5 games behind the Wild Card leading Braves. The Rockies then went on a 7 game winning streak to eventually finish the season with 72 wins and 46 losses. But it was a season of ups and downs as the Rockies first went 20-7 to reach 38-34, then lost 9 out of 10 on a disastrous road trip to fall to 39-43, and reached the All-Star break at 44-44, and for the next two months they were up and down struggling at 32-28 prior to the finish run.
In 2009, the Rockies run began on June 3rd starting at the low point of 20-32. This time they started with an 11 game winning streak, and they have continued to build on it, never losing more than 3 straight or 5 out of 10 at any point. They have also steadily built on their record rather than falling back. From 12 under they rose to 1 under. After 1 loss they climbed to 4 over, 4 more games they reached 5 over .500, 9 games later they were 6 over (never going below 3 over), from there they have never gotten lower than 5 over and have built slowly to 18 over.
This is a very different run so far, and this year doesn't require a super finish, at least so far. There are a lot of similarities between the two years, but with the run approaching 80 games this year, without faltering, this can not be termed a fluke. There's still a long way to go to clinch a playoff spot, but this is a better more complete team than in 2007.
But that run really started on May 21st, when the Rockies at 18-27 in 5th place and 7 games behind the Dodgers and 8.5 games behind the Wild Card leading Braves. The Rockies then went on a 7 game winning streak to eventually finish the season with 72 wins and 46 losses. But it was a season of ups and downs as the Rockies first went 20-7 to reach 38-34, then lost 9 out of 10 on a disastrous road trip to fall to 39-43, and reached the All-Star break at 44-44, and for the next two months they were up and down struggling at 32-28 prior to the finish run.
In 2009, the Rockies run began on June 3rd starting at the low point of 20-32. This time they started with an 11 game winning streak, and they have continued to build on it, never losing more than 3 straight or 5 out of 10 at any point. They have also steadily built on their record rather than falling back. From 12 under they rose to 1 under. After 1 loss they climbed to 4 over, 4 more games they reached 5 over .500, 9 games later they were 6 over (never going below 3 over), from there they have never gotten lower than 5 over and have built slowly to 18 over.
This is a very different run so far, and this year doesn't require a super finish, at least so far. There are a lot of similarities between the two years, but with the run approaching 80 games this year, without faltering, this can not be termed a fluke. There's still a long way to go to clinch a playoff spot, but this is a better more complete team than in 2007.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
TU-(B)-LO!!!!
For a while it looked as if the Dodgers had the Rockies number once again, as the reliable Rockies bullpen gave up two runs to the Dodgers to allow them to tie and take it to extra innings for the 2nd straight night. But the Rockies once again delivered with a game-winning hit with the bases loaded to beat the Dodgers 5-4 in 10 innings. A little less dramatic than last night perhaps, but the celebration was just as big as Troy Tulowitzki singled to left-center field. The Rockies are now 13.5 games closer to the Dodgers than they were on June 3rd, as they closed the gap to 2 games.
Most importantly on a night when they were short-handed in the bullpen as Huston Street was not available after pitching in the past 6 of 7 games, they still managed to win against a team they need to catch.
The Rockies are now 60-1 in games that they lead after 8 innings, 30-0 at home.
On June 3rd, the Rockies were 20-32 and in 5th place 15.5 games behind the 37-18 Dodgers. Since then the Rockies have gone 52-22 an incredible .703 Pct. while the Dodgers have gone 37-34 in that span for a .521 pct.
The Rockies are a franchise record 18 games over .500 at 72-54. They have won 4 in a row, 8 of the last 9 and 17 of the last 24.
The game also featured the much anticipated debut of Eric Young, Jr. after the Rockies placed Dexter Fowler on the Disabled List this afternoon. Junior went 1 for 4 getting a single and tracking down a ball in front of his father who was in the Press Box. I'm sure Dad will remind the kid that he went 2 for 4 in his debut for the Dodgers on July 30, 1992 against San Diego. Ironically, it was also a 10 inning game, and his team also won. Dad also had an RBI and swiped a base, his son was picked off on his first attempt.
The Rockies gained ground on Atlanta as the Padres beat them 2-1 in 12 innings. The Marlins beat the Mets 2-1 and are tied with the Braves for 2nd in the East. The Giants beat Arizona 5-4.
The Dodgers currently still have the best record in the National League 74-52. The Rockies are 4th at 72-54. The Phillies at 72-51 and the Cardinals 73-54 are also ahead of them.
Most importantly on a night when they were short-handed in the bullpen as Huston Street was not available after pitching in the past 6 of 7 games, they still managed to win against a team they need to catch.
The Rockies are now 60-1 in games that they lead after 8 innings, 30-0 at home.
On June 3rd, the Rockies were 20-32 and in 5th place 15.5 games behind the 37-18 Dodgers. Since then the Rockies have gone 52-22 an incredible .703 Pct. while the Dodgers have gone 37-34 in that span for a .521 pct.
The Rockies are a franchise record 18 games over .500 at 72-54. They have won 4 in a row, 8 of the last 9 and 17 of the last 24.
The game also featured the much anticipated debut of Eric Young, Jr. after the Rockies placed Dexter Fowler on the Disabled List this afternoon. Junior went 1 for 4 getting a single and tracking down a ball in front of his father who was in the Press Box. I'm sure Dad will remind the kid that he went 2 for 4 in his debut for the Dodgers on July 30, 1992 against San Diego. Ironically, it was also a 10 inning game, and his team also won. Dad also had an RBI and swiped a base, his son was picked off on his first attempt.
The Rockies gained ground on Atlanta as the Padres beat them 2-1 in 12 innings. The Marlins beat the Mets 2-1 and are tied with the Braves for 2nd in the East. The Giants beat Arizona 5-4.
The Dodgers currently still have the best record in the National League 74-52. The Rockies are 4th at 72-54. The Phillies at 72-51 and the Cardinals 73-54 are also ahead of them.
Looking Back on the Giants Series
The just completed 4 game set with the Giants may have been the greatest single series in the history of the Rockies. As noted in my post last night, each game was significantly different from the others. Going in, the Rockies needed to split the series just to keep the 2 game lead they went in with. The Giants needed to take 3 games to tie and 4 games to take the Wild Card lead. But let's look at it from the NL West perspective. Had they lost last night they would be 4 games out, had they lost another game they'd be 5 games out, and if they were swept they'd be 6 games out.
The Rockies had opportunities to win Game 1 and didn't. The Giants had opportunities to win Games 2, 3, 4 and led at some point in every game, but they didn't win any of them.
Had the Rockies lost last night, it shouldn't have been a devastating one. The Giants, meanwhile are at least temporarily devastated, and could very well recover at home against the D-Backs starting tonight. They had to be pretty confident after Friday night's win, that they would win another game here, and maybe two, but leave with 3 straight losses.
Apparently Justin Miller, a 1997 Rockies draft pick, is getting most of the grief from Giants fans this morning, for the 3 batters he face in the 14th. I can't fault him too much for the Tulowitzki walk, and even if he had managed to get 3 strikes to Adam Eaton, who was ordered not to swing by Jim Tracy, the outcome could have turned out the same--except the score might have been 5-4 instead of 6-4.
Plenty of blame on both sides to go around for either team losing. Troy Tulowitzki made two great plays at shortstop, but made a huge mistake in the 10th after singling to Right Field. Carlos Gonzalez was on 2nd but was held up at third and would be the winning run if he scored. As the throw came in, Tulo inexplicably broke for 2nd base. He has to know in that situation, he's a meaningless runner. He got caught in a rundown, and thrown out. If he held at first, the Giants are forced to bring the infield in with no outs, and Hawpe and Spillborghs have a better chance to hit Gonzalez in.
The only second-guessing of Jim Tracy I would do is putting Gonzalez in for Helton at that point, which had some repercussions later, when Gonzalez came up in the lineup twice. With Helton on first, it made more sense, but with him on 2nd, taking away a potential double play, it didn't make as much sense. Maybe he was just afraid of Helton running through a stop sign again. Not egregious, but it definitely was a decision that came back to hurt a little bit.
For the third straight game, the Rockies were given gift runs by the Giants pitchers last night. Zito walked Helton to drive in Torrealba, and Miller walked Eaton to bring in Fowler. Sunday, Clint Barmes took a pitch on the leg to drive Tulowitzki in with an insurance run. Saturday, Fowler scored on a Wild Pitch, and then later walked to drive in Torrealba, Helton followed Dexter and walked to drive in Spilborghs. Key stat, Giants gave up 32 walks to the Rockies 15 for the series. Eaton had 7 of the Rockies 15, 5 last night.
The Rockies had opportunities to win Game 1 and didn't. The Giants had opportunities to win Games 2, 3, 4 and led at some point in every game, but they didn't win any of them.
Had the Rockies lost last night, it shouldn't have been a devastating one. The Giants, meanwhile are at least temporarily devastated, and could very well recover at home against the D-Backs starting tonight. They had to be pretty confident after Friday night's win, that they would win another game here, and maybe two, but leave with 3 straight losses.
Apparently Justin Miller, a 1997 Rockies draft pick, is getting most of the grief from Giants fans this morning, for the 3 batters he face in the 14th. I can't fault him too much for the Tulowitzki walk, and even if he had managed to get 3 strikes to Adam Eaton, who was ordered not to swing by Jim Tracy, the outcome could have turned out the same--except the score might have been 5-4 instead of 6-4.
Plenty of blame on both sides to go around for either team losing. Troy Tulowitzki made two great plays at shortstop, but made a huge mistake in the 10th after singling to Right Field. Carlos Gonzalez was on 2nd but was held up at third and would be the winning run if he scored. As the throw came in, Tulo inexplicably broke for 2nd base. He has to know in that situation, he's a meaningless runner. He got caught in a rundown, and thrown out. If he held at first, the Giants are forced to bring the infield in with no outs, and Hawpe and Spillborghs have a better chance to hit Gonzalez in.
The only second-guessing of Jim Tracy I would do is putting Gonzalez in for Helton at that point, which had some repercussions later, when Gonzalez came up in the lineup twice. With Helton on first, it made more sense, but with him on 2nd, taking away a potential double play, it didn't make as much sense. Maybe he was just afraid of Helton running through a stop sign again. Not egregious, but it definitely was a decision that came back to hurt a little bit.
For the third straight game, the Rockies were given gift runs by the Giants pitchers last night. Zito walked Helton to drive in Torrealba, and Miller walked Eaton to bring in Fowler. Sunday, Clint Barmes took a pitch on the leg to drive Tulowitzki in with an insurance run. Saturday, Fowler scored on a Wild Pitch, and then later walked to drive in Torrealba, Helton followed Dexter and walked to drive in Spilborghs. Key stat, Giants gave up 32 walks to the Rockies 15 for the series. Eaton had 7 of the Rockies 15, 5 last night.
What a Series!!!!
If that wasn't a playoff atmosphere this weekend, wait until the next 3 days with the Dodgers. Four very different games, with the Rockies taking 3-1.
Game 1--Pretty normal game, Giants win 6-3.
Game 2--Old-Fashioned Coors Field Slugfest with Rockies overcoming a 5 run deficit to win 14-11.
Game 3--Pitcher's Duel, Jimenez vs. Lincecum as both make one mistake, but a misplay allows the Rockies to win 4-2.
Game 4--A chess-match between Bochy and Tracy, as they empty both benches, and nearly both bullpens (only Herges was left in the Rockies Pen). Started out as a pitcher's duel between Marquis and Zito, plenty of opportunities for both sides. Giving up 3 runs in the top of the 13th and getting 5 back in the bottom.
I'm still digesting the impact of this victory, possibly the most significant of the season. I'll ponder more on it tomorrow, but I will mention this: I look at the 7 games with the Giants as one series, that is separated by the Dodgers series. Although tonight's loss has to hurt the Giants, they can rebound against us this weekend.
17 THE HARD WAY The Rockies on Monday night reached 17 games above .500 for only the second time in their 17 game history. The last time was Game 163 AKA the Tiebreaker, when the Rockies had to go 13 before giving up 2 runs in the top half of the inning followed by a comeback in the bottom of the inning. Tonight it took 14 innings and coming back from 3 runs down, but the celebrations seemed similar.
Game 1--Pretty normal game, Giants win 6-3.
Game 2--Old-Fashioned Coors Field Slugfest with Rockies overcoming a 5 run deficit to win 14-11.
Game 3--Pitcher's Duel, Jimenez vs. Lincecum as both make one mistake, but a misplay allows the Rockies to win 4-2.
Game 4--A chess-match between Bochy and Tracy, as they empty both benches, and nearly both bullpens (only Herges was left in the Rockies Pen). Started out as a pitcher's duel between Marquis and Zito, plenty of opportunities for both sides. Giving up 3 runs in the top of the 13th and getting 5 back in the bottom.
I'm still digesting the impact of this victory, possibly the most significant of the season. I'll ponder more on it tomorrow, but I will mention this: I look at the 7 games with the Giants as one series, that is separated by the Dodgers series. Although tonight's loss has to hurt the Giants, they can rebound against us this weekend.
17 THE HARD WAY The Rockies on Monday night reached 17 games above .500 for only the second time in their 17 game history. The last time was Game 163 AKA the Tiebreaker, when the Rockies had to go 13 before giving up 2 runs in the top half of the inning followed by a comeback in the bottom of the inning. Tonight it took 14 innings and coming back from 3 runs down, but the celebrations seemed similar.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Monday Musings
The Rockies signed 1B Jason Giambi, and RHP Russ Ortiz over the past two days to help them during the September stretch run. Josh Fogg will start for the Rockies on Wednesday against the Dodgers in place of Aaron Cook. Cook's following start would have been next Tuesday, however the Rockies have some options. They could run Fogg or Adam Eaton out against the Mets, skip the spot in the rotation, since there is an off day on Monday, and move everyone up a day until a 5th starter is needed on Saturday, September 5th, or they could bring up Ortiz or Chacin on Tuesday as rosters expand on Tuesday. My guess is they will skip the spot at this point and postpone the decision.
Rockies have 4 remaining off days, but are in the midst of playing 29 games in 30 days. After next Monday, they have off September 17, 21 and 28.
Since the Dodgers last came to Coors Field on May 27th and Jim Tracy took over, the Rockies have compiled a 27-11 at home, having lost only 1 series (To Arizona July 3-5) and went 2-2 against Atlanta July 9-12. The Rockies are 9-6 against the West at home since then, and 13-13 overall against the West at home including the 1-5 record against the Dodgers.
The Rockies are 14-7 in August with 7 games to play.
The Rockies are 16 games over .500 for only the 2nd time in their history, the first being the 162nd game of 2007. The only day the Rockies were better than 16 over was after the Tiebreaker at 90-73.
At this point in 2007 the Rockies were 63-61. They finished 26-12 in the final 38 games, but only after they were 12-11 in the first 24. If the Rockies split the final 38 at 19-19, they will finish 89-73, the same record they had before the Tiebreaker game in 2007.
Rockies have 4 remaining off days, but are in the midst of playing 29 games in 30 days. After next Monday, they have off September 17, 21 and 28.
Since the Dodgers last came to Coors Field on May 27th and Jim Tracy took over, the Rockies have compiled a 27-11 at home, having lost only 1 series (To Arizona July 3-5) and went 2-2 against Atlanta July 9-12. The Rockies are 9-6 against the West at home since then, and 13-13 overall against the West at home including the 1-5 record against the Dodgers.
The Rockies are 14-7 in August with 7 games to play.
The Rockies are 16 games over .500 for only the 2nd time in their history, the first being the 162nd game of 2007. The only day the Rockies were better than 16 over was after the Tiebreaker at 90-73.
At this point in 2007 the Rockies were 63-61. They finished 26-12 in the final 38 games, but only after they were 12-11 in the first 24. If the Rockies split the final 38 at 19-19, they will finish 89-73, the same record they had before the Tiebreaker game in 2007.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Weekly Race In Review August 17-23
Rockies go 5-1 for the week to expand their Wild Card lead to 3 over the Giants and contract their NL West deficit to 3.5 games, but their margin of victory in all their games was 3 or less for the entire week.
Results:
8/18 ROCKIES 4 Nationals 3
8/19 ROCKIES 5 Nationals 4
8/20 ROCKIES 5 Nationals 4
8/21 Giants 6 ROCKIES 3
8/22 ROCKIES 14 Giants 11
8/23 ROCKIES 4 Giants 2
Meanwhile the Dodgers were 4-3, Giants 4-3, Braves 5-2, Marlins 2-4. The other division Leaders Phillies went 5-1, while the Cardinals went 5-2.
Magic Number for the Dodgers to win the West 35, Rockies need 42, and Giants need 45. Magic Number for the Rockies to win the Wild Card is 36, Giants need 42, Braves 43, and Marlins 44.
Rockies finish the wrap around series with Giants, Monday night followed by 3 with the Dodgers before they interrupt their 17 game home stand with a quick trip to the Bay Area for 3 games with the Giants. The Giants have 3 at home with the D-Backs as well, and the Dodgers head to Cincinnati for the weekend.
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POCKET ACES: Sunday's outing was a pitcher's duel as billed after 25 runs were scored Saturday night. Jimenez made one bad pitch in the 2nd inning that Edgar Renteria smacked over the fence. And although Tim Lincecum didn't have his best stuff but still took a no-hitter into the 6th inning. Then he threw one bad pitch to Seth Smith and he trailed by one. Rematch Friday night in San Francisco.
FIELDING DECISIONS: Fielding Choices don't end up in the boxscore, but the Giants gave the Rockies two big assists the past two days. Saturday night with Tulowitzki on first and no outs and the Giants with a 3 run lead, Brad Hawpe got a single to Center Field. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand threw to 3rd to try to cut down Tulo, but the throw had no chance. Meanwhile Brad Hawpe, moved to 2nd on the throw. The ill-advised throw took the Double Play out for the next batter, Ian Stewart who made the whole thing moot by smacking a 3-run HR to tie it up. Sunday, Ian start singled to Right field with Todd Helton on 2nd base, Schierholtz threw a bead towards home plate which Ryan Garko cut off and then threw to Molina too late to catch Helton. Had Garko not cut it off, the throw appeared to be on target, and Helton would have been a dead duck if Molina fielded the ball cleanly. The Rockies got another run directly off a bad fielding play by Travis Ishikawa who ironically was put into the game in the 8th for defensive purposes over Garko, made a bad throw to 2nd to start a potential Double play that resulted in no outs recorded. Ishikawa did receive an error for that one though.
REDEEMING YOURSELF: Eric Bruntlett, playing 2B for the Phillies had 3 consecutive balls hit to him in the 9th inning of Sunday's game at the Mets. He booted the first one and threw late to first for an error. He booted the 2nd one kicking it over to shortstop after ranging far to his right. But it was ruled a hit. The third ball, a line drive to 2B, Bruntlett, managed to get in the glove just before running over 2nd base and then tagging the runner coming from first to second. Maybe Bruntlett was just setting up the unassisted triple play with the first two boots, but it became only the second game-ending triple play in history and the first in National League History. It was also the first National League UTP since Troy Tulowitzki's in 2007, although Asdrubal Cabrera had one for Cleveland in 2008.
Results:
8/18 ROCKIES 4 Nationals 3
8/19 ROCKIES 5 Nationals 4
8/20 ROCKIES 5 Nationals 4
8/21 Giants 6 ROCKIES 3
8/22 ROCKIES 14 Giants 11
8/23 ROCKIES 4 Giants 2
Meanwhile the Dodgers were 4-3, Giants 4-3, Braves 5-2, Marlins 2-4. The other division Leaders Phillies went 5-1, while the Cardinals went 5-2.
Magic Number for the Dodgers to win the West 35, Rockies need 42, and Giants need 45. Magic Number for the Rockies to win the Wild Card is 36, Giants need 42, Braves 43, and Marlins 44.
Rockies finish the wrap around series with Giants, Monday night followed by 3 with the Dodgers before they interrupt their 17 game home stand with a quick trip to the Bay Area for 3 games with the Giants. The Giants have 3 at home with the D-Backs as well, and the Dodgers head to Cincinnati for the weekend.
**********************************************************************
POCKET ACES: Sunday's outing was a pitcher's duel as billed after 25 runs were scored Saturday night. Jimenez made one bad pitch in the 2nd inning that Edgar Renteria smacked over the fence. And although Tim Lincecum didn't have his best stuff but still took a no-hitter into the 6th inning. Then he threw one bad pitch to Seth Smith and he trailed by one. Rematch Friday night in San Francisco.
FIELDING DECISIONS: Fielding Choices don't end up in the boxscore, but the Giants gave the Rockies two big assists the past two days. Saturday night with Tulowitzki on first and no outs and the Giants with a 3 run lead, Brad Hawpe got a single to Center Field. Centerfielder Aaron Rowand threw to 3rd to try to cut down Tulo, but the throw had no chance. Meanwhile Brad Hawpe, moved to 2nd on the throw. The ill-advised throw took the Double Play out for the next batter, Ian Stewart who made the whole thing moot by smacking a 3-run HR to tie it up. Sunday, Ian start singled to Right field with Todd Helton on 2nd base, Schierholtz threw a bead towards home plate which Ryan Garko cut off and then threw to Molina too late to catch Helton. Had Garko not cut it off, the throw appeared to be on target, and Helton would have been a dead duck if Molina fielded the ball cleanly. The Rockies got another run directly off a bad fielding play by Travis Ishikawa who ironically was put into the game in the 8th for defensive purposes over Garko, made a bad throw to 2nd to start a potential Double play that resulted in no outs recorded. Ishikawa did receive an error for that one though.
REDEEMING YOURSELF: Eric Bruntlett, playing 2B for the Phillies had 3 consecutive balls hit to him in the 9th inning of Sunday's game at the Mets. He booted the first one and threw late to first for an error. He booted the 2nd one kicking it over to shortstop after ranging far to his right. But it was ruled a hit. The third ball, a line drive to 2B, Bruntlett, managed to get in the glove just before running over 2nd base and then tagging the runner coming from first to second. Maybe Bruntlett was just setting up the unassisted triple play with the first two boots, but it became only the second game-ending triple play in history and the first in National League History. It was also the first National League UTP since Troy Tulowitzki's in 2007, although Asdrubal Cabrera had one for Cleveland in 2008.
Old-Fashioned Coors Field Barn-Burner
Last night we returned briefly to yesteryear, when the Rockies would score 10 runs or more and edge the opponent. On a night when the long ball was flying with the Giants outslugging the Rockies 5 Homers to 2, the Rockies managed to beat the Giants 14-11 to even the series at 1-1 for the weekend.
Before the Humidor, the Rockies would routinely have games where one team or the other would score 10 runs or more. In the Rockies 17 year history, both teams have scored 10 runs or more a total of 39 times, 34 times at home, and only 4 times since 2003. The last time it happened was earlier this year in a 15-11 loss to Houston on May 13th. Overall the Rockies are 19-20 in games where both teams have scored double digit runs.
The win guaranteed the Giants would leave Denver without the Wild Card lead, the best they can do is tie as the Rockies margin is again at 2. The Braves and Marlins have also split their series so far, and both remain 4 games behind the Rockies.
With 69 wins this season, the Rockies have more wins than in 3 entire seasons, 1993-67, 2004-68, and 2005-67. They also only had 53 wins in the strike-shortened year of 1994. They are also 13 wins away from only their 6th winning season.
IN THE BIG INNING: In 2009 the Rockies have 7 innings where they have scored 5 runs or more. Last night's 6th marked the first time since June 14th against Seattle when they scored 5 runs in 7-1 victory.
RUNNING UP LARGE DEFICITS: Saturday's 1-6 deficit, was the largest deficit of the year that that Rockies have come back to win. They have come from 3 runs behind 4 times and 4 runs behind (to Atlanta on July 12th) once.
LINCECUM AVOIDANCE IS OVER: Somehow we have missed seeing Tim Lincicum pitch against the Rockies for the first 10 meetings with the Giants, but we will now see him twice in the next 6 days, today and Friday night in San Francisco. Overall he is 3-2 vs. the Rockies in 8 starts with a 4.40 ERA; 2-0 at Coors Field in 5 starts with a 4.18 ERA. Ubaldo Jimenez meanwhile has faced the Giants twice already winning at Coors Field on May 6th. He has a 2.44 ERA in 7 starts against the Giants overall. The intriguing Jimenez vs. Lincecum matchup of young pitchers should be interesting to watch twice this week.
Before the Humidor, the Rockies would routinely have games where one team or the other would score 10 runs or more. In the Rockies 17 year history, both teams have scored 10 runs or more a total of 39 times, 34 times at home, and only 4 times since 2003. The last time it happened was earlier this year in a 15-11 loss to Houston on May 13th. Overall the Rockies are 19-20 in games where both teams have scored double digit runs.
The win guaranteed the Giants would leave Denver without the Wild Card lead, the best they can do is tie as the Rockies margin is again at 2. The Braves and Marlins have also split their series so far, and both remain 4 games behind the Rockies.
With 69 wins this season, the Rockies have more wins than in 3 entire seasons, 1993-67, 2004-68, and 2005-67. They also only had 53 wins in the strike-shortened year of 1994. They are also 13 wins away from only their 6th winning season.
IN THE BIG INNING: In 2009 the Rockies have 7 innings where they have scored 5 runs or more. Last night's 6th marked the first time since June 14th against Seattle when they scored 5 runs in 7-1 victory.
RUNNING UP LARGE DEFICITS: Saturday's 1-6 deficit, was the largest deficit of the year that that Rockies have come back to win. They have come from 3 runs behind 4 times and 4 runs behind (to Atlanta on July 12th) once.
LINCECUM AVOIDANCE IS OVER: Somehow we have missed seeing Tim Lincicum pitch against the Rockies for the first 10 meetings with the Giants, but we will now see him twice in the next 6 days, today and Friday night in San Francisco. Overall he is 3-2 vs. the Rockies in 8 starts with a 4.40 ERA; 2-0 at Coors Field in 5 starts with a 4.18 ERA. Ubaldo Jimenez meanwhile has faced the Giants twice already winning at Coors Field on May 6th. He has a 2.44 ERA in 7 starts against the Giants overall. The intriguing Jimenez vs. Lincecum matchup of young pitchers should be interesting to watch twice this week.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Beyond Our Control
In the excitement of rooting for a game, one of the things we forget about baseball players is that they are humans too, and sometimes, unexpectedly, non-baseball issues rear their heads and affect a player or a game. Jason Hammel had an impending bereavement last weekend as he took the mound in a game the Rockies lost. Did it affect him? Probably, but he might have lost the game anyway, and the reality is the game didn't matter in the big picture to him.
Last night Troy Tulowitzki came down with some illness, which kept him from even coming to the ballpark. The Rockies had to switch up some positions which admittedly hurt them in the loss last night, especially when you came down to the last out with the potential winning run at the plate in the person of--Omar Quintanilla????? But it happens.
It can be worse. Last month the Brewers' Corey Hart had an appendectomy that is sidelineing him for about a month, the Twins Justin Morneau came down with an inner ear infection, that has sidelined him for nearly a week and possibly will land him on the DL.
And let's not forget the scare Aaron Cook got a few years ago with his blood clots, that not only threatened his baseball career, but his life.
These things pop up all the time, and are the unknown factor in the ultimate pennant race. They are part of the game though, and we always have to deal with them as they come.
IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED, BUT THE SEASON IS OVER: Speaking of Aaron Cook, he is headed to the DL and Matt Herges is being called up. Most likely Josh Fogg, or Adam Eaton who both pitched last night will take his place in the rotation against the Dodgers next Wednesday. After that the next scheduled start would be September 1st against the Mets, and the Rockies can call up a starter from the minors for that game as rosters expand.
According to Troy Renck (see 3a), this means the Rockies WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. It may not matter anyway, because as he also said (see 2), they won't make the playoffs unless the Rockies win the next 3 games (going 3-1 against the Giants at home). His words "The Rockies must split six at AT&T Park and win three of four on Blake Street." Talk about pressure. (My emphasis)
I'll stick with my prediction that Troy Renck will be proven wrong, and all is not lost in either of the cases. Keep in mind if we can win just one in this series, we remain tied for the Wild Card spot.
BECOMING BASEBALL FANS: One of my complaints about Rockies fans is that have not yet become true baseball fans. The most obnoxious thing is doing "the Wave", and doing it while the Rockies are batting.
At the 2007 Tiebreaker game, an elderly woman who was a season-ticket holder got annoyed with the other fans in front of her whenever something exciting happened in the game, and yell at us repeatedly to sit down. Sorry Ma'am this was for the playoffs. I've seen it at other games in different sections as well. And I'm not talking about the random drunk fan who doesn't realize he's a better door than a window, but a block of fans who stand up for a great play or situation.
So I have to give Kudos to the fans in their further evolvement into Baseball Fans. With the Rockies 4 runs down and the bases loaded in the bottom of the 7th, and Todd Helton batting, the fans stood on their feet the entire at bat, even during the pitching change--And I did not hear one person complain.
THE OUT-OF-TOWNERS: I'm hosting three Giants fans who flew in from the Bay Area this weekend for games at Coors Field. This had been planned since the middle of May, when both teams were under .500, not realizing the potential significance of the series at this point. Obviously they were pleased with the result, but I had to laugh at them for their lack of faith in the middle relievers and even the Closer Brian Wilson in an non-save role. I think they really thought that they were going to lose the game, even when it was 6-1. With good reason too. The Rockies loaded the bases with one out on two walks and a HBP in the 7th, got a solo HR in the 8th and had 4 baserunners in the 9th.
Last night Troy Tulowitzki came down with some illness, which kept him from even coming to the ballpark. The Rockies had to switch up some positions which admittedly hurt them in the loss last night, especially when you came down to the last out with the potential winning run at the plate in the person of--Omar Quintanilla????? But it happens.
It can be worse. Last month the Brewers' Corey Hart had an appendectomy that is sidelineing him for about a month, the Twins Justin Morneau came down with an inner ear infection, that has sidelined him for nearly a week and possibly will land him on the DL.
And let's not forget the scare Aaron Cook got a few years ago with his blood clots, that not only threatened his baseball career, but his life.
These things pop up all the time, and are the unknown factor in the ultimate pennant race. They are part of the game though, and we always have to deal with them as they come.
IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED, BUT THE SEASON IS OVER: Speaking of Aaron Cook, he is headed to the DL and Matt Herges is being called up. Most likely Josh Fogg, or Adam Eaton who both pitched last night will take his place in the rotation against the Dodgers next Wednesday. After that the next scheduled start would be September 1st against the Mets, and the Rockies can call up a starter from the minors for that game as rosters expand.
According to Troy Renck (see 3a), this means the Rockies WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. It may not matter anyway, because as he also said (see 2), they won't make the playoffs unless the Rockies win the next 3 games (going 3-1 against the Giants at home). His words "The Rockies must split six at AT&T Park and win three of four on Blake Street." Talk about pressure. (My emphasis)
I'll stick with my prediction that Troy Renck will be proven wrong, and all is not lost in either of the cases. Keep in mind if we can win just one in this series, we remain tied for the Wild Card spot.
BECOMING BASEBALL FANS: One of my complaints about Rockies fans is that have not yet become true baseball fans. The most obnoxious thing is doing "the Wave", and doing it while the Rockies are batting.
At the 2007 Tiebreaker game, an elderly woman who was a season-ticket holder got annoyed with the other fans in front of her whenever something exciting happened in the game, and yell at us repeatedly to sit down. Sorry Ma'am this was for the playoffs. I've seen it at other games in different sections as well. And I'm not talking about the random drunk fan who doesn't realize he's a better door than a window, but a block of fans who stand up for a great play or situation.
So I have to give Kudos to the fans in their further evolvement into Baseball Fans. With the Rockies 4 runs down and the bases loaded in the bottom of the 7th, and Todd Helton batting, the fans stood on their feet the entire at bat, even during the pitching change--And I did not hear one person complain.
THE OUT-OF-TOWNERS: I'm hosting three Giants fans who flew in from the Bay Area this weekend for games at Coors Field. This had been planned since the middle of May, when both teams were under .500, not realizing the potential significance of the series at this point. Obviously they were pleased with the result, but I had to laugh at them for their lack of faith in the middle relievers and even the Closer Brian Wilson in an non-save role. I think they really thought that they were going to lose the game, even when it was 6-1. With good reason too. The Rockies loaded the bases with one out on two walks and a HBP in the 7th, got a solo HR in the 8th and had 4 baserunners in the 9th.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
SWEEP!!!!
One of the reasons the Rockies have been 50-25 under Jim Tracy is that they really have the ability to go out and take it one game at a time. This has resulted in an ability to win a game after a win. During the first 46 games this season before Clint Hurdle was replaced, the Rockies managed to win only 5 times following a win and their longest winning streak was 3 back on the 2nd through 4th games of the season. In the 75 games since, the Rockies have won 35 games following a win--or in other words extended a winning streak. The flip side is that under Hurdle the Rockies lost 14 times after a loss, extending a losing streak. Under Tracy, the Rockies have only lost 9 times--and 3 of those were in his first 6 games.
So you wonder why the Rockies are where they are? Since June 3rd they have had only 6 losing streaks of 2 or more games, and only 1 of them was 3 games. At the same time, they have had 11 winning streaks with 4 of those being only 2 games. The others were 11, 6, 5, 4-twice and 3-twice.
They also have 8 sweeps of series. The surprising part of that stat? 5 of them have been on the road including a 4 gamer in St. Louis. They've also swept at Milwaukee, Oakland, Cincinnati and Washington on the road, while sweeping, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Washington at home.
They've also feasted on the bad teams. Under Tracy, they've gone 5-1 against Pittsburgh, 6-0 against Washington, 3-0 against Cincinnati, and 5-1 vs. San Diego. That's 19-2 against teams that are 15 games or more under .500. If you throw Arizona (3-3) and Oakland (3-0) in there the Rockies are 25-5 against teams that are currently 10 games or more under .500. Meanwhile the Dodgers are 22-10 against the same teams, over the entire season, and the Giants are 23-15 against them. And just for full comparison, the Rockies for the season against those teams are 32-10.
The bad news about that is the Rockies are 36-43 against the other teams (23-15 under Tracy), and play 22 of their final 41 games against those teams. The Dodgers meanwhile have 25 of their final 40 against the terrible teams. Their only games left against decent teams are against the Giants and Rockies after the 3 remaining games with the Cubs this weekend. The Giants only have 15 games against the terrible teams and 26 against good teams.
As I mentioned yesterday the Rockies are slumping in different aspects of their game, but they are not falling apart. In New York they didn't score in the equivalent of 3 games, before getting 5 straight wins by essentially having good pitching and defense. The Cubs hit a ton getting double digit hits in 3 of the 4 games, but didn't score as the defense got out of jams and the hitting made the most of their hits. The fact that two of the three, Offense, defense, Pitching seem to pick up the 3rd missing part which seems to change daily, preventing the Rockies from going into an extended losing streak. And yeah, I know it's difficult to believe a team is in a slump and has 14-9 record during that stretch, but when we look back on the season, this just-completed 23 game stretch with 16 on the road and struggling as they have, may be the key to the whole season. They've managed to not lose ground and set themselves up well for the final 41 game stretch.
HOME SWEET HOME: Earlier this season the Rockies Played 30 of 45 on the road going 28-17 during that stretch. The counterpart of that problematic schedule is coming up as the Rockies now play 26 of the next 38 at home (not counting the final 3 games in LA). Just as an example if they win one game for every home game left and go 26-15, they will end up 94-68 which certainly would put them in the playoffs.
FACTORS REVISITED: Two weeks ago, I established a 90 game factor as a barometer of how well they were doing with the uneven number of home and away games. It's calculated by taking the home games remaining - the number of wins needed to get 90.
Let's update (Home Games - Wins to 90 - Projected Wins):
Rockies 26 - 22 - 94
Phillies 21 - 22 - 91
Dodgers 19 - 18 - 91
Cardinals 21 - 21 - 90
Giants 22 - 24 - 88
Braves 22 - 26 - 86
Cubs 24 - 29 - 85
Marlins 19 - 26 - 83
Interestingly, of all the teams listed, only the Giants and Cubs have losing records on the Road. The alternate calculation would be Road wins - Home Losses + 81, and the Rockies still lead.
(Road Wins, Home Losses, Projected Wins)
Rockies 36 - 23 - 94
Dodgers 34 - 24 - 91
Cardinals 33 - 24 - 90
Phillies 37 - 29 - 89
Giants 27 - 20 - 88
Braves 32 - 27 - 86
Cubs 26 - 22 - 85
Marlins 30 - 28 - 83
So you wonder why the Rockies are where they are? Since June 3rd they have had only 6 losing streaks of 2 or more games, and only 1 of them was 3 games. At the same time, they have had 11 winning streaks with 4 of those being only 2 games. The others were 11, 6, 5, 4-twice and 3-twice.
They also have 8 sweeps of series. The surprising part of that stat? 5 of them have been on the road including a 4 gamer in St. Louis. They've also swept at Milwaukee, Oakland, Cincinnati and Washington on the road, while sweeping, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Washington at home.
They've also feasted on the bad teams. Under Tracy, they've gone 5-1 against Pittsburgh, 6-0 against Washington, 3-0 against Cincinnati, and 5-1 vs. San Diego. That's 19-2 against teams that are 15 games or more under .500. If you throw Arizona (3-3) and Oakland (3-0) in there the Rockies are 25-5 against teams that are currently 10 games or more under .500. Meanwhile the Dodgers are 22-10 against the same teams, over the entire season, and the Giants are 23-15 against them. And just for full comparison, the Rockies for the season against those teams are 32-10.
The bad news about that is the Rockies are 36-43 against the other teams (23-15 under Tracy), and play 22 of their final 41 games against those teams. The Dodgers meanwhile have 25 of their final 40 against the terrible teams. Their only games left against decent teams are against the Giants and Rockies after the 3 remaining games with the Cubs this weekend. The Giants only have 15 games against the terrible teams and 26 against good teams.
As I mentioned yesterday the Rockies are slumping in different aspects of their game, but they are not falling apart. In New York they didn't score in the equivalent of 3 games, before getting 5 straight wins by essentially having good pitching and defense. The Cubs hit a ton getting double digit hits in 3 of the 4 games, but didn't score as the defense got out of jams and the hitting made the most of their hits. The fact that two of the three, Offense, defense, Pitching seem to pick up the 3rd missing part which seems to change daily, preventing the Rockies from going into an extended losing streak. And yeah, I know it's difficult to believe a team is in a slump and has 14-9 record during that stretch, but when we look back on the season, this just-completed 23 game stretch with 16 on the road and struggling as they have, may be the key to the whole season. They've managed to not lose ground and set themselves up well for the final 41 game stretch.
HOME SWEET HOME: Earlier this season the Rockies Played 30 of 45 on the road going 28-17 during that stretch. The counterpart of that problematic schedule is coming up as the Rockies now play 26 of the next 38 at home (not counting the final 3 games in LA). Just as an example if they win one game for every home game left and go 26-15, they will end up 94-68 which certainly would put them in the playoffs.
FACTORS REVISITED: Two weeks ago, I established a 90 game factor as a barometer of how well they were doing with the uneven number of home and away games. It's calculated by taking the home games remaining - the number of wins needed to get 90.
Let's update (Home Games - Wins to 90 - Projected Wins):
Rockies 26 - 22 - 94
Phillies 21 - 22 - 91
Dodgers 19 - 18 - 91
Cardinals 21 - 21 - 90
Giants 22 - 24 - 88
Braves 22 - 26 - 86
Cubs 24 - 29 - 85
Marlins 19 - 26 - 83
Interestingly, of all the teams listed, only the Giants and Cubs have losing records on the Road. The alternate calculation would be Road wins - Home Losses + 81, and the Rockies still lead.
(Road Wins, Home Losses, Projected Wins)
Rockies 36 - 23 - 94
Dodgers 34 - 24 - 91
Cardinals 33 - 24 - 90
Phillies 37 - 29 - 89
Giants 27 - 20 - 88
Braves 32 - 27 - 86
Cubs 26 - 22 - 85
Marlins 30 - 28 - 83
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Let's Forget About the Wild Card
That's right forget about it. Let's start thinking about the NL West Title.
Matt Holliday helped the Rockies tonight by knocking in the game winning run against the Dodgers in the 9th inning to move the Rockies to within 3.5 games of the Dodgers. The last time they were this close to first place was on April 17th when they were 4-5.
Don't look now but the Rockies (and the Giants) are now in a division race with the Dodgers. And they are in it despite not playing their best ball of the season over the past 3 weeks. Wednesday night's game was typical of this "slump" where they have not gotten key hits. With 10 walks they should have blown the Nationals away, but they eked out a 5-4 win to go 12-9 over the past 21 games since the last time they played the Giants.
But they find a way to win, while the Dodgers have been finding ways to lose. During the same stretch, the Dodgers are 9-13 and are 10-15 since July 22nd. During that stretch they have only won 2 consecutive games twice. In fact since the Rockies and Dodgers last met, (and they got Manny Ramirez back) the Dodgers are a .500 ballclub going 21-21. The Rockies meanwhile are 25-16.
Let's stop talking about the Wild Card and let's go for the West. The mindset doesn't change, go out and win the next game, but what was once unthinkable in early June is now possible.
ROAD SUCCESS: With the win on Wednesday, the Rockies have guaranteed their 7th non-losing road trip of the year and 6th in a row. They have only had two losing road trips, going 2-6 on their second trip of the year, and 2-3 on their 3rd.
MARQUIS DE FLOP?: Is it really necessary to bring up Marquis' alleged history of second half flops every time something goes right--or wrong. We just need to let the rest of the season unfold and then look in retrospect. He will have good games and bad games down the stretch, each individual outing does not a trend make. The one good sign is that the blister problem seems to have gone away, and Jason can continue to concentrate on other aspects of his season. I'm not even convinced the "2nd Half flop" is even real. According to Baseball-Reference.com He is 33-39 in the 2nd half vs. 60-39 in the 1st (as determined by the All-Star Break) and his ERA after the AS Break is 4.83 vs. 4.16 before. That's fine if you just look at the raw stats, but keep in mind that 60% of his starts are before the All-Star Break, and he was not a full-time starter until 2004. So let's drill down a little bit. He is 51-32 and 4.19 in those 6 seasons in the 1st Half, and 28-31 4.81 in the 2nd. In those 6 years he's always had a winning first half, and in all but two years, he's had a winning 2nd half. His biggest discrepancy was 2006 when he was 11-6 vs. 3-10 from 1st half to 2nd half. But that year he was horrible all year. His 1st half ERA was 5.55, second half 6.72. Take that year out and the differential isn't bad. The guy is a workhorse, averaging over 6 innings per start throughout his career. If he gets the Rockies to the 7th inning in most starts, then he's done his job, because it's still a game at that point. I don't really care what his specific W/L splits are, he's still doing the job, and always has--except for 2006. Which makes it the exception not the rule.
The one stat you have to remember with Marquis is that he's never missed the Playoffs in the Majors with the team he's been on.
Matt Holliday helped the Rockies tonight by knocking in the game winning run against the Dodgers in the 9th inning to move the Rockies to within 3.5 games of the Dodgers. The last time they were this close to first place was on April 17th when they were 4-5.
Don't look now but the Rockies (and the Giants) are now in a division race with the Dodgers. And they are in it despite not playing their best ball of the season over the past 3 weeks. Wednesday night's game was typical of this "slump" where they have not gotten key hits. With 10 walks they should have blown the Nationals away, but they eked out a 5-4 win to go 12-9 over the past 21 games since the last time they played the Giants.
But they find a way to win, while the Dodgers have been finding ways to lose. During the same stretch, the Dodgers are 9-13 and are 10-15 since July 22nd. During that stretch they have only won 2 consecutive games twice. In fact since the Rockies and Dodgers last met, (and they got Manny Ramirez back) the Dodgers are a .500 ballclub going 21-21. The Rockies meanwhile are 25-16.
Let's stop talking about the Wild Card and let's go for the West. The mindset doesn't change, go out and win the next game, but what was once unthinkable in early June is now possible.
ROAD SUCCESS: With the win on Wednesday, the Rockies have guaranteed their 7th non-losing road trip of the year and 6th in a row. They have only had two losing road trips, going 2-6 on their second trip of the year, and 2-3 on their 3rd.
MARQUIS DE FLOP?: Is it really necessary to bring up Marquis' alleged history of second half flops every time something goes right--or wrong. We just need to let the rest of the season unfold and then look in retrospect. He will have good games and bad games down the stretch, each individual outing does not a trend make. The one good sign is that the blister problem seems to have gone away, and Jason can continue to concentrate on other aspects of his season. I'm not even convinced the "2nd Half flop" is even real. According to Baseball-Reference.com He is 33-39 in the 2nd half vs. 60-39 in the 1st (as determined by the All-Star Break) and his ERA after the AS Break is 4.83 vs. 4.16 before. That's fine if you just look at the raw stats, but keep in mind that 60% of his starts are before the All-Star Break, and he was not a full-time starter until 2004. So let's drill down a little bit. He is 51-32 and 4.19 in those 6 seasons in the 1st Half, and 28-31 4.81 in the 2nd. In those 6 years he's always had a winning first half, and in all but two years, he's had a winning 2nd half. His biggest discrepancy was 2006 when he was 11-6 vs. 3-10 from 1st half to 2nd half. But that year he was horrible all year. His 1st half ERA was 5.55, second half 6.72. Take that year out and the differential isn't bad. The guy is a workhorse, averaging over 6 innings per start throughout his career. If he gets the Rockies to the 7th inning in most starts, then he's done his job, because it's still a game at that point. I don't really care what his specific W/L splits are, he's still doing the job, and always has--except for 2006. Which makes it the exception not the rule.
The one stat you have to remember with Marquis is that he's never missed the Playoffs in the Majors with the team he's been on.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
About Magic Numbers
I always find it funny that "magic numbers" start appearing in the standings late in the season at random times. It's almost appears that they don't exist prior to August.
In actuality, the Magic Number can be tracked from the beginning of the season. The Magic Number is simply the numbers of game for a season plus 1 minus your team's wins minus the opponent's losses with the fewest losses. There's nothing really magical about it. It's more of a clinching number. The number for every team at the beginning of the season is 163.
Before the Wild Card there was really only one clinching number in Baseball to worry about. That would be the number to clinch the Division title. The Wild Card creates a second number which is used to calculate the Wild Card (or playoff clinching).
I take the magic number to calculate something I don't have a name for, but for the time being in honor of this Blog, I'll call it the Gruntle-lator Ratio. Simply put this number calculates the ratio of the Magic Number vs. the Possible ways to reduce it creating a percentage. When the percentage hits 0% you've clinched the spot, when you exceed 100% you are eliminated. At the beginning of the season, everyone's ratio is 50.31%
Here's how it currently looks for the National League West:
Team Magic Number / Remaining / Ratio
Dodgers 40/87/45.98%
Rockies 49/87/56.32%
Giants 50/87/57.47%%
D-Backs 63/91/69.23%
Padres 65/90/72.22%
My basic premise is that as the Ratio gets below 40% there is a high likelihood that that team will clinch the title. Similarly teams that exceed 60% are all but eliminated. So although the D-Backs and Padres are not officially eliminated, you could say they are definitely out of the race.
But not always:
On September 15, 2007 the Padres were the Wild Card Leader in the NL but only had a Ratio of 48.28% needing 14 of the remaining 29 possibilities against the Phillies who were at the time trailing the Mets.
The Rockies meanwhile needed 20 of the Remaining 29 possible pickups or 68.97%. More incredibly as the final two weeks of the season unfolded, the real Wild Card Leader at the time was the New York Mets, who had already gone below 40% to win the East sitting at 37.93% on that date, but sitting at 32.35% three games earlier before being swept by the Phillies.
As it turned out the Padres only picked up 13 by the 162nd game and the Rockies 19 neither one reaching the magic number, which required them to play the Classic Tiebreaker 163rd game.
So it's not impossible to come back even with two weeks left unless of course your ratio goes over 100%.
NOTES: On August 30, 2008, the Dodgers were 4.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and came back to win the Division. On August 18, 2009, the Rockies are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 9-15 since a five game winning streak just after the All-Star Break. The Rockies are only 13-10 during that span, but have cut the lead from 9 to 4.5 games.
In actuality, the Magic Number can be tracked from the beginning of the season. The Magic Number is simply the numbers of game for a season plus 1 minus your team's wins minus the opponent's losses with the fewest losses. There's nothing really magical about it. It's more of a clinching number. The number for every team at the beginning of the season is 163.
Before the Wild Card there was really only one clinching number in Baseball to worry about. That would be the number to clinch the Division title. The Wild Card creates a second number which is used to calculate the Wild Card (or playoff clinching).
I take the magic number to calculate something I don't have a name for, but for the time being in honor of this Blog, I'll call it the Gruntle-lator Ratio. Simply put this number calculates the ratio of the Magic Number vs. the Possible ways to reduce it creating a percentage. When the percentage hits 0% you've clinched the spot, when you exceed 100% you are eliminated. At the beginning of the season, everyone's ratio is 50.31%
Here's how it currently looks for the National League West:
Team Magic Number / Remaining / Ratio
Dodgers 40/87/45.98%
Rockies 49/87/56.32%
Giants 50/87/57.47%%
D-Backs 63/91/69.23%
Padres 65/90/72.22%
My basic premise is that as the Ratio gets below 40% there is a high likelihood that that team will clinch the title. Similarly teams that exceed 60% are all but eliminated. So although the D-Backs and Padres are not officially eliminated, you could say they are definitely out of the race.
But not always:
On September 15, 2007 the Padres were the Wild Card Leader in the NL but only had a Ratio of 48.28% needing 14 of the remaining 29 possibilities against the Phillies who were at the time trailing the Mets.
The Rockies meanwhile needed 20 of the Remaining 29 possible pickups or 68.97%. More incredibly as the final two weeks of the season unfolded, the real Wild Card Leader at the time was the New York Mets, who had already gone below 40% to win the East sitting at 37.93% on that date, but sitting at 32.35% three games earlier before being swept by the Phillies.
As it turned out the Padres only picked up 13 by the 162nd game and the Rockies 19 neither one reaching the magic number, which required them to play the Classic Tiebreaker 163rd game.
So it's not impossible to come back even with two weeks left unless of course your ratio goes over 100%.
NOTES: On August 30, 2008, the Dodgers were 4.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and came back to win the Division. On August 18, 2009, the Rockies are 4.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 9-15 since a five game winning streak just after the All-Star Break. The Rockies are only 13-10 during that span, but have cut the lead from 9 to 4.5 games.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Random Thoughts for An Off Day
As the Rockies put South Florida behind them and head to the Nation's Capitol, before heading to the final stretch of the season never venturing East of the Mountain Time Zone for the final 41 games, a few thoughts:
LETTING GO OF HOLLIDAY: I was a proponent of trading Matt Holliday before he was eligible for Free Agency. The simple fact is that he is represented by Scott Boras, who never let's anyone sign before the deadline. Look at Steve Strasberg, the #1 draft pick of the Nationals, who is down to the final hours on being signed or going back to school for one more year and likely being drafted by the Nationals again next year.
Back to Holliday, it's not that Scott Boras is bad for his clients, it's just that his practices are proven, and no matter how much you like Matt Holliday, he would not have been a Rockie beyond this season. The cost would be too high, for a slightly above average left fielder. There's no denying his bat was productive, although as we are seeing this year, there are other ways to score besides sitting back and waiting for home runs to leave the park.
So what did we get for him? We've got a closer Huston Street who has been pretty much lights out all season with one blown save and one loss. He has 56 strikeouts in 48 innings. As other name brand closers are faltering (See Broxton, Lidge and Fuentes) Street continues to excel in save situations.
We also got Carlos Gonzalez, who started out slowly, but is starting to turn it on having hit over .400 over the past 4 weeks, 5 home runs including 2 yesterday, and his fielding has been spectacular. With the future combination of him and Dexter Fowler patrolling the vast pastures of Coors Field, there is a huge plus for the defense. He'll never hit 30 homers in a season like Matt, but he can make a lot of things happen, and if he continues to hit and get on base, good things will happen. And most importantly, the Rockies are 31-8 in games that he starts, and 38-13 in games that he plays in.
The Rockies also got Greg Smith a starting pitcher who has been hurt this season.
Street and Gonzalez are two important reasons for the Rockies success this year, and we have them next year and the next year also. In my opinion this was a good deal for the Rockies and their future.
ROAD RACE: The Rockies need to win 8 of their remaining 18 road games to have the first winning road record in Franchise History. Remaining Road games are 3 in Washington, 6 in San Francisco, and 3 in Arizona, San Diego and Los Angeles.
CHASING LA: A lot of attention has been paid to the Wild Card race, but it's time to seriously consider a run for the Division Title. The Rockies have slowly but steadily shaved off 10 games off the lead, and with 7 weeks left, have an opportunity to make a move for the title. This would require a minimum of 95 wins, but is still possible.
9 Run 13th: While Looking at the scoreboard yesterday, I kind of passed over the Angels 17-8 Rout of the Orioles, until I saw the Notation "F 13". Earlier the Angels had had a 6-2 lead, so I had just figured they piled it on. Turns out Closer Brian Fuentes had his 5th Blown save of the season. The 9 runs scored by the Angels in the 13th tied the record for most runs in the 13th inning, set in 1933 by Cleveland against Detroit. The most runs in an extra inning is 12 by Texas vs. Oakland in 1983 winning 16-4 in 15 innings.
LETTING GO OF HOLLIDAY: I was a proponent of trading Matt Holliday before he was eligible for Free Agency. The simple fact is that he is represented by Scott Boras, who never let's anyone sign before the deadline. Look at Steve Strasberg, the #1 draft pick of the Nationals, who is down to the final hours on being signed or going back to school for one more year and likely being drafted by the Nationals again next year.
Back to Holliday, it's not that Scott Boras is bad for his clients, it's just that his practices are proven, and no matter how much you like Matt Holliday, he would not have been a Rockie beyond this season. The cost would be too high, for a slightly above average left fielder. There's no denying his bat was productive, although as we are seeing this year, there are other ways to score besides sitting back and waiting for home runs to leave the park.
So what did we get for him? We've got a closer Huston Street who has been pretty much lights out all season with one blown save and one loss. He has 56 strikeouts in 48 innings. As other name brand closers are faltering (See Broxton, Lidge and Fuentes) Street continues to excel in save situations.
We also got Carlos Gonzalez, who started out slowly, but is starting to turn it on having hit over .400 over the past 4 weeks, 5 home runs including 2 yesterday, and his fielding has been spectacular. With the future combination of him and Dexter Fowler patrolling the vast pastures of Coors Field, there is a huge plus for the defense. He'll never hit 30 homers in a season like Matt, but he can make a lot of things happen, and if he continues to hit and get on base, good things will happen. And most importantly, the Rockies are 31-8 in games that he starts, and 38-13 in games that he plays in.
The Rockies also got Greg Smith a starting pitcher who has been hurt this season.
Street and Gonzalez are two important reasons for the Rockies success this year, and we have them next year and the next year also. In my opinion this was a good deal for the Rockies and their future.
ROAD RACE: The Rockies need to win 8 of their remaining 18 road games to have the first winning road record in Franchise History. Remaining Road games are 3 in Washington, 6 in San Francisco, and 3 in Arizona, San Diego and Los Angeles.
CHASING LA: A lot of attention has been paid to the Wild Card race, but it's time to seriously consider a run for the Division Title. The Rockies have slowly but steadily shaved off 10 games off the lead, and with 7 weeks left, have an opportunity to make a move for the title. This would require a minimum of 95 wins, but is still possible.
9 Run 13th: While Looking at the scoreboard yesterday, I kind of passed over the Angels 17-8 Rout of the Orioles, until I saw the Notation "F 13". Earlier the Angels had had a 6-2 lead, so I had just figured they piled it on. Turns out Closer Brian Fuentes had his 5th Blown save of the season. The 9 runs scored by the Angels in the 13th tied the record for most runs in the 13th inning, set in 1933 by Cleveland against Detroit. The most runs in an extra inning is 12 by Texas vs. Oakland in 1983 winning 16-4 in 15 innings.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Weekly Race In Review August 10-16
The Rockies had a mediocre week going 4-3, but still picked up ground on the Dodgers 3-3, Giants 2-4, Cubs 2-4, Brewers 3-3, and Houston 2-5; kept pace with Braves 3-2, and only lost ground on the Marlins 5-2.
RESULTS:
8/10 ROCKIES 11 Cubs 5
8/11 Pirates 7 ROCKIES 3
8/12 ROCKIES 8 Pirates 0
8/13 ROCKIES 10 Pirates 1
8/14 Marlins 6 ROCKIES 5
8/15 ROCKIES at Marlins Ppd, Rain
8/16 (Game 1) Marlins 9 ROCKIES 3
8/17 (Game 2) ROCKIES 7 Marlins 3
After an Off day Monday, the Rockies play the Nationals for 3 before returning home for a showdown with the Giants over the weekend.
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ROCKIES NOTES:
CALL HIM JOR-DINI Jim Tracy calls him George frequently in his press conferences and pre-game shows, but Jorge De La Rosa is starting to get out of more tied knots than Houdini. On Monday, night against the Cubs, Jorge got out of bases-loaded jams in the first and second innings, and allowed 12 baserunners in 7 2/3 innings, but only gave up 1 run. In Sunday's nightcap, De La Rosa allowed 11 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings, and only 1 run scored.
ANOTHER STREAK FOR HELTON Since having a hitting streak stopped one short of his career high, Todd Helton has now gone 5 straight games without a hit.
RESULTS:
8/10 ROCKIES 11 Cubs 5
8/11 Pirates 7 ROCKIES 3
8/12 ROCKIES 8 Pirates 0
8/13 ROCKIES 10 Pirates 1
8/14 Marlins 6 ROCKIES 5
8/15 ROCKIES at Marlins Ppd, Rain
8/16 (Game 1) Marlins 9 ROCKIES 3
8/17 (Game 2) ROCKIES 7 Marlins 3
After an Off day Monday, the Rockies play the Nationals for 3 before returning home for a showdown with the Giants over the weekend.
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ROCKIES NOTES:
CALL HIM JOR-DINI Jim Tracy calls him George frequently in his press conferences and pre-game shows, but Jorge De La Rosa is starting to get out of more tied knots than Houdini. On Monday, night against the Cubs, Jorge got out of bases-loaded jams in the first and second innings, and allowed 12 baserunners in 7 2/3 innings, but only gave up 1 run. In Sunday's nightcap, De La Rosa allowed 11 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings, and only 1 run scored.
ANOTHER STREAK FOR HELTON Since having a hitting streak stopped one short of his career high, Todd Helton has now gone 5 straight games without a hit.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Rockies Rock the Bucs
Can't complain about a 5-2 homestand and improving their record to an all-time franchise best 13 games above .500 prior to September. They now head to Florida to face a Marlins team that has at least 10 hits in each of the last 10 games. At the same time the Rockies bats have seemingly awakened having outscored their opponents 44-25 over the past week. The Marlins have only outscored their opponents 69-62 in their past 10 and are 6-4 during that stretch.
Clint Barmes had 4 hits in 16 games between July 21 and August 11--all Home Runs. In the past two games he has 6 hits.
Dexter Fowler went 4 for 5 with 3 doubles in his return after crashing into the center field wall making a catch against the Cubs on Monday night. Carlos Gonzalez emulated Fowler by crashing into eht left field fence after making a catch in the first, and then racing over to the left field foul stands to make another catch in the 2nd inning.
Rockies now have 32 wins at home and 32 wins on the road.
With 10 games remaining against the NL Central the Rockies have clinched a winning record against those 6 teams. They are currently 22-10. Against NL Central teams other than Houston, they are 20-5.
The Rockies will complete their out of division away schedule with the Road trip to Florida and Washington. They still have 13 of their 26 remaining home games against teams outside the NL West. Their final 41 games will be in either the Mountain or Pacific Time Zones.
Clint Barmes had 4 hits in 16 games between July 21 and August 11--all Home Runs. In the past two games he has 6 hits.
Dexter Fowler went 4 for 5 with 3 doubles in his return after crashing into the center field wall making a catch against the Cubs on Monday night. Carlos Gonzalez emulated Fowler by crashing into eht left field fence after making a catch in the first, and then racing over to the left field foul stands to make another catch in the 2nd inning.
Rockies now have 32 wins at home and 32 wins on the road.
With 10 games remaining against the NL Central the Rockies have clinched a winning record against those 6 teams. They are currently 22-10. Against NL Central teams other than Houston, they are 20-5.
The Rockies will complete their out of division away schedule with the Road trip to Florida and Washington. They still have 13 of their 26 remaining home games against teams outside the NL West. Their final 41 games will be in either the Mountain or Pacific Time Zones.
Rebound
A good effort on all sides last night recovering from the ugly outing Tuesday to shut out the Pirates 8-0 on the strength of Ubaldo Jimenez' 8 innings of shutout ball, Clint Barmes, breaking out of his slump with 3 hits, and the defense making the plays including Chris Iannetta's ability to get the throws to second.
Only negative, Todd Helton's 16 game hitting streak came to an end.
NOTES: Rockies sent Tuesday night's starter Chacin down to Colorado Springs and brought up Adam Eaton. It is expected that Chacin will get a few weeks work and then rejoin the Rockies in September. Eaton, gives the bullpen some insurance in case one of the starters doesn't go far in the next couple of games.
Rockies have 4 10 game
Day game today, before heading to Florida and Washington to finish up the East Coast schedule for the season. After that an important 10-day stretch directly against the Giants and Dodgers.
Only negative, Todd Helton's 16 game hitting streak came to an end.
NOTES: Rockies sent Tuesday night's starter Chacin down to Colorado Springs and brought up Adam Eaton. It is expected that Chacin will get a few weeks work and then rejoin the Rockies in September. Eaton, gives the bullpen some insurance in case one of the starters doesn't go far in the next couple of games.
Rockies have 4 10 game
Day game today, before heading to Florida and Washington to finish up the East Coast schedule for the season. After that an important 10-day stretch directly against the Giants and Dodgers.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Just Plain Ugly
No excuses for the Rockies last night--if that was even the Rockies. It looks more like the Cubs stayed behind and the Rockies left town. 3 errors and several misplays led to an ugly 7-3 loss to the Pirates. Jhoulys Chacin making his first major league start didn't do himself any favors by walking 6 (one intentionally), and hit a batter (but he swung at the pitch).
The good news? The Rockies got through the game only using 4 pitchers as Josh Fogg came in and pitched 4 1/3 innings. And it's a new game tonight.
Todd Helton got two hits to move his second longest hitting streak to 16 one short of his all-time record of 17.
Troy Tulowitzki homered in the 2nd inning, but grounded out in the 4th to end his consecutive hit streak at 6.
Back to Chacin's HBP--As Tracy Ringolsby pointed out on the post game show, the ball should have been dead, and the runner could not advance. Had he not swung and was hit by the pitch the ball is dead, the fact that he swung at it doesn't make it a live ball. At the very least when Jim Tracy came out to argue, the home plate umpire should have checked with the rest of the crew to see whether they saw a foul ball or the ball hit him.
Relevant Rule is 6.08(b)
This is just one the Umpires should have made sure they got right.
There have just been so many crazy plays the last few days, including Todd Helton's "wedgie" on a foul ball, Brad Hawpe's misplay of the ball off the foul territory along withe Hit By Pitch. Baseball just never gets old, even in the losses.
The good news? The Rockies got through the game only using 4 pitchers as Josh Fogg came in and pitched 4 1/3 innings. And it's a new game tonight.
Todd Helton got two hits to move his second longest hitting streak to 16 one short of his all-time record of 17.
Troy Tulowitzki homered in the 2nd inning, but grounded out in the 4th to end his consecutive hit streak at 6.
Back to Chacin's HBP--As Tracy Ringolsby pointed out on the post game show, the ball should have been dead, and the runner could not advance. Had he not swung and was hit by the pitch the ball is dead, the fact that he swung at it doesn't make it a live ball. At the very least when Jim Tracy came out to argue, the home plate umpire should have checked with the rest of the crew to see whether they saw a foul ball or the ball hit him.
Relevant Rule is 6.08(b)
6.08 The batter becomes a runner and is entitled to first base without liability to be put out (provided he advances to and touches first base) when—
(b) He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (1) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (2) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball;
If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a strike, whether or not the batter tries to avoid the ball. If the ball is outside the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a ball if he makes no attempt to avoid being touched.
APPROVED RULING: When the batter is touched by a pitched ball which does not entitle him to first base, the ball is dead and no runner may advance.
This is just one the Umpires should have made sure they got right.
There have just been so many crazy plays the last few days, including Todd Helton's "wedgie" on a foul ball, Brad Hawpe's misplay of the ball off the foul territory along withe Hit By Pitch. Baseball just never gets old, even in the losses.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Back in the Lead
Wild game last night to take the Wild Card Lead...
1. First of all, that was a weak cycle for Tulo last night. I'm glad he got it, but in all other cases the triple would have been a 2b and an error on Soriano's juggling the ball alone, but with the bad throw on top of it, there's no way that was a triple. A good throw on the 2b would have also gotten him too. Even if he was thrown out on those two plays, it was still a 5 for 5 night with 7 RBI's both Career highs. And possibly the first player ever with an Unassisted Triple Play AND a cycle in their career.
2. Is there anything Dexter Fowler won't do? The guy goes to the wall to make a catch and punishes his body on a ball in the 9th inning, with an 8 run lead (at the time). Hopefully, the injury isn't too bad and he can back out there.
3. Did anybody--including any of the umpires actually see the ball on Tulo's grand slam foul ball last night? I don't have HD, but in all the shots of it I still can't see it coming down and have no idea where it landed. I'm against instant replay in sports, the human factor sometimes helps you like it did on the DP on Sunday, and sometimes it goes against you. My general solution to the Home Run problem is to improve the sight lines for the umpires for the fences, or add the two OF umpires to the regular season games, like they do in the playoffs.
4. De La Rosa loads the bases in the first two innings on 3 hits and 3 walks, and gives up a grand total of 0 runs. Still makes it to the 8th inning and only gives up 1 run. There was a time not too long ago, when he would have blown up early and be gone by the end of the 2nd inning.
5. It was only 4 games, and maybe not representative, but how can people believe the Cubs are legitimate contenders for the Central title? I think we dodged a bullet by not facing Zambrano or Harden, but the fielding looked like the Nationals. 6 errors in 4 games with at least one error in each game, and as noted above probably had a couple of more that weren't scored that way. (The Gorzelany injury play was another questionable play where he should have had Torrealba easily, but you really can't rule that an error) It doesn't get much easier for them either, as they go home for 6 against the Phillies and Pirates, followed by another trip out west against the Padres and Dodgers. They also don't have an off day until August 24th. I look for them to fade over the next few weeks, unless they find a way to patch their pitching holes.
NOTES: It's hard to know which way to root on the Giants/Dodgers, but I think Dodger losses maximizes the Rockies chances for the playoffs. My preference would be to go in as a Division winner over the Wild Card, so I'm pulling for the Giants.
1. First of all, that was a weak cycle for Tulo last night. I'm glad he got it, but in all other cases the triple would have been a 2b and an error on Soriano's juggling the ball alone, but with the bad throw on top of it, there's no way that was a triple. A good throw on the 2b would have also gotten him too. Even if he was thrown out on those two plays, it was still a 5 for 5 night with 7 RBI's both Career highs. And possibly the first player ever with an Unassisted Triple Play AND a cycle in their career.
2. Is there anything Dexter Fowler won't do? The guy goes to the wall to make a catch and punishes his body on a ball in the 9th inning, with an 8 run lead (at the time). Hopefully, the injury isn't too bad and he can back out there.
3. Did anybody--including any of the umpires actually see the ball on Tulo's grand slam foul ball last night? I don't have HD, but in all the shots of it I still can't see it coming down and have no idea where it landed. I'm against instant replay in sports, the human factor sometimes helps you like it did on the DP on Sunday, and sometimes it goes against you. My general solution to the Home Run problem is to improve the sight lines for the umpires for the fences, or add the two OF umpires to the regular season games, like they do in the playoffs.
4. De La Rosa loads the bases in the first two innings on 3 hits and 3 walks, and gives up a grand total of 0 runs. Still makes it to the 8th inning and only gives up 1 run. There was a time not too long ago, when he would have blown up early and be gone by the end of the 2nd inning.
5. It was only 4 games, and maybe not representative, but how can people believe the Cubs are legitimate contenders for the Central title? I think we dodged a bullet by not facing Zambrano or Harden, but the fielding looked like the Nationals. 6 errors in 4 games with at least one error in each game, and as noted above probably had a couple of more that weren't scored that way. (The Gorzelany injury play was another questionable play where he should have had Torrealba easily, but you really can't rule that an error) It doesn't get much easier for them either, as they go home for 6 against the Phillies and Pirates, followed by another trip out west against the Padres and Dodgers. They also don't have an off day until August 24th. I look for them to fade over the next few weeks, unless they find a way to patch their pitching holes.
NOTES: It's hard to know which way to root on the Giants/Dodgers, but I think Dodger losses maximizes the Rockies chances for the playoffs. My preference would be to go in as a Division winner over the Wild Card, so I'm pulling for the Giants.
Monday, August 10, 2009
How The Rockies Make the Playoffs.
I'm not going to make it a habit of commenting on articles in the paper or on other blogs, but after reading Troy Renck's article in today's Denver Post I decided to make an exception.
Let's take on a couple of the points:
1. It would work out better for the Rockies if the Cubs win the NL Central "because Colorado plays the Cardinals in a three-game set at the end of September with a chance to eliminate them."
I'm not sure who he is referring to on who eliminates whom, but it really doesn't matter who wins the NL Central to the Rockies. In fact at that point with 9 games left on the schedule, either the NL Central or the Wild Card could be decided. The games also could decide one or other of the races. It's also possible Milwaukee could climb into the race and the Cardinals and Cubs fade, and the Milwaukee series against the Rockies the last week of the season could have more meaning.
My point is, it's just way too early to speculate on how the NL Central would or wouldn't impact the Rockies chances for the playoffs.
2. "If the Central resolves itself it all comes down to the Giants." Renck insists that the Rockies need to go 3-3 in SF and 3-1 at home. Once again I disagree. It would be nice to win like that against San Francisco but a 5-5 splits, makes it even, and even if the Giants win 6 or 7 doesn't kill the Rockies chances. The main reason is that there are 15 games AFTER the last Giants game, and we all know the difference 15 games can make. Another reason is starting tonight the Giants still have 9 games against the Dodgers while the Rockies have 6.
Let's also compare the out of division games for the Giants:
Road: (13)
Mets (4)
Reds (3)
Phils (3)
Brewers (3)
Home (4)
Cubs (4)
Compare that with the Rockies
Away (6)
Marlins (3)
Nationals (3)
Home: (18)
Cubs (1)
Pirates (3)
Mets (4)
Reds (4)
Cards (3)
Brewers (3)
Look back at a key 4 game series between the Rockies and the Phillies back in the Second week of September, 2007. At the time, the series began, both teams were 6 games behind their respective Division leader, and the Rockies came in 1 game behind the Phillies who were two games behind the Padres for the Wild Card. It was widely assumed that they both needed to win at least 3 out of 4 to keep their playoff chances alive. They split the series, and both teams lost a half-game on the leaders. The Phillies then won 14 of their next 17 to win the East and the Rockies lost two more before winning 14 of 15 to get the Wild Card.
To pin the season solely on 9 games with 51 to play is ludicrous. It could even be that neither team comes anywhere near the Wild Card in the end.
3. Marquis and Cook must go 13-7 down the stretch. I'm assuming he means the Rockies must win 13 of 20 of their starts, not that they have to actually have that record.
3a. If Cook lands on the DL the Rockies aren't making the playoffs.
I think if Marquis and Cook go 13-7 down the stretch, it means the other starters must go 16-15 to hit 90 wins. What Renck doesn't even bother to mention is that even if the pitchers start struggling in their outings, it still is up to the Rockies slumbering bats to finally take over and win some games. It's possible that the pitching overall has worse numbers in the last 50 games and still wins a lot of games because of the hitting.
4. Not even mentioned in the article is the possibility the Dodgers get overtaken by either the Giants or the Rockies (or both.) With a 5.5 game lead and 51 games left it's a possibility.
I have confidence that Jim Tracy isn't going to let the Rockies lose their focus for very long if things don't go well. The key to me is getting to September in position and using an expanded bench and bullpen a la Hurdle did in 2007, to work through any rough spots. I don't expect another 14 of 15 down the stretch. Take it day by day.
I hope Woody Paige gives Troy Renck his keyboard back.
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2017 Followup--I'm revisiting this in July, 2017, when the Rockies are in the midst of another Wild Card Race.
1. Cardinals came into Colorado having clinched a tie for the NL Central Division with 9 Games to Play. Rockies took two of three with the Cardinals clinching the NL Central in the 2nd game of the series.
2. The Rockies took 3 of 4 on Blake Street but only 1 of 6 at AT&T Park. The Rockies still left SF for the final time in 2009 with a 3.5 game lead.
The Rockies also went 4-2 on the Eastern Road trip and 15-3 out of division home the rest of the way. (19-5 total)
The Giants went 7-6 out of division on the road, 1-3 against the Cubs at home (8-9 total) This effectively gave the Rockies a 7.5 game advantage in out of division games down the stretch. The Rockies ultimately won the Wild Card by 4 games.
3. Rockies went 2-2 in Cook's 4 starts, 5-6 in Marquis starts or 7-8 total. Despite this, the Rockies chased the Dodgers to the next to the last day of the season for the NL West Title. Jimenez 7-3, and De La Rosa 9-2 carried the pitching.
3a. Cook landed on the DL in late August missing 6 starts.
4. The Dodgers never got overtaken, but the Rockies got the lead down to 1, before being eliminated in game 161 at Los Angeles.
Let's take on a couple of the points:
1. It would work out better for the Rockies if the Cubs win the NL Central "because Colorado plays the Cardinals in a three-game set at the end of September with a chance to eliminate them."
I'm not sure who he is referring to on who eliminates whom, but it really doesn't matter who wins the NL Central to the Rockies. In fact at that point with 9 games left on the schedule, either the NL Central or the Wild Card could be decided. The games also could decide one or other of the races. It's also possible Milwaukee could climb into the race and the Cardinals and Cubs fade, and the Milwaukee series against the Rockies the last week of the season could have more meaning.
My point is, it's just way too early to speculate on how the NL Central would or wouldn't impact the Rockies chances for the playoffs.
2. "If the Central resolves itself it all comes down to the Giants." Renck insists that the Rockies need to go 3-3 in SF and 3-1 at home. Once again I disagree. It would be nice to win like that against San Francisco but a 5-5 splits, makes it even, and even if the Giants win 6 or 7 doesn't kill the Rockies chances. The main reason is that there are 15 games AFTER the last Giants game, and we all know the difference 15 games can make. Another reason is starting tonight the Giants still have 9 games against the Dodgers while the Rockies have 6.
Let's also compare the out of division games for the Giants:
Road: (13)
Mets (4)
Reds (3)
Phils (3)
Brewers (3)
Home (4)
Cubs (4)
Compare that with the Rockies
Away (6)
Marlins (3)
Nationals (3)
Home: (18)
Cubs (1)
Pirates (3)
Mets (4)
Reds (4)
Cards (3)
Brewers (3)
Look back at a key 4 game series between the Rockies and the Phillies back in the Second week of September, 2007. At the time, the series began, both teams were 6 games behind their respective Division leader, and the Rockies came in 1 game behind the Phillies who were two games behind the Padres for the Wild Card. It was widely assumed that they both needed to win at least 3 out of 4 to keep their playoff chances alive. They split the series, and both teams lost a half-game on the leaders. The Phillies then won 14 of their next 17 to win the East and the Rockies lost two more before winning 14 of 15 to get the Wild Card.
To pin the season solely on 9 games with 51 to play is ludicrous. It could even be that neither team comes anywhere near the Wild Card in the end.
3. Marquis and Cook must go 13-7 down the stretch. I'm assuming he means the Rockies must win 13 of 20 of their starts, not that they have to actually have that record.
3a. If Cook lands on the DL the Rockies aren't making the playoffs.
I think if Marquis and Cook go 13-7 down the stretch, it means the other starters must go 16-15 to hit 90 wins. What Renck doesn't even bother to mention is that even if the pitchers start struggling in their outings, it still is up to the Rockies slumbering bats to finally take over and win some games. It's possible that the pitching overall has worse numbers in the last 50 games and still wins a lot of games because of the hitting.
4. Not even mentioned in the article is the possibility the Dodgers get overtaken by either the Giants or the Rockies (or both.) With a 5.5 game lead and 51 games left it's a possibility.
I have confidence that Jim Tracy isn't going to let the Rockies lose their focus for very long if things don't go well. The key to me is getting to September in position and using an expanded bench and bullpen a la Hurdle did in 2007, to work through any rough spots. I don't expect another 14 of 15 down the stretch. Take it day by day.
I hope Woody Paige gives Troy Renck his keyboard back.
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2017 Followup--I'm revisiting this in July, 2017, when the Rockies are in the midst of another Wild Card Race.
1. Cardinals came into Colorado having clinched a tie for the NL Central Division with 9 Games to Play. Rockies took two of three with the Cardinals clinching the NL Central in the 2nd game of the series.
2. The Rockies took 3 of 4 on Blake Street but only 1 of 6 at AT&T Park. The Rockies still left SF for the final time in 2009 with a 3.5 game lead.
The Rockies also went 4-2 on the Eastern Road trip and 15-3 out of division home the rest of the way. (19-5 total)
The Giants went 7-6 out of division on the road, 1-3 against the Cubs at home (8-9 total) This effectively gave the Rockies a 7.5 game advantage in out of division games down the stretch. The Rockies ultimately won the Wild Card by 4 games.
3. Rockies went 2-2 in Cook's 4 starts, 5-6 in Marquis starts or 7-8 total. Despite this, the Rockies chased the Dodgers to the next to the last day of the season for the NL West Title. Jimenez 7-3, and De La Rosa 9-2 carried the pitching.
3a. Cook landed on the DL in late August missing 6 starts.
4. The Dodgers never got overtaken, but the Rockies got the lead down to 1, before being eliminated in game 161 at Los Angeles.
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Weekly Race In Review August 3-9
The Rockies had only their 2nd non-winning week since the end of May as they managed to split the week 3-3. The good news in that is they had the best week of the NL West Contenders, as the Giants also went 3-3 and the Dodgers were 2-4. Even in the Wild Card Race, the only teams to have a better record than the Rockies were St. Louis at 4-1 and Atlanta who went 5-2 beating the Dodgers 3 out of 4 in the process and coming oh, so close to a sweep.
Results:
8/4 ROCKIES 8 Phillies 3
8/5 Phillies 7 ROCKIES 0
8/6 Phillies 3 ROCKIES 1
8/7 ROCKIES 6 Cubs 2
8/8 Cubs 6 ROCKIES 5
8/9 ROCKIES 11 Cubs 5
The Giants and Rockies have now both closed to 5.5 games of the Dodgers with LA headed to SF starting Monday night in the first of 24 games down the stretch among the top 3 in the West. The Giants have 9 each left with the Dodgers and Rockies, while the Rockies and Dodgers still have to meet 6 times including a season ending 3 game set in LA.
In the Wild Card the Rockies and Giants are again tied for the lead with the Cubs 2 games behind, Florida 3 games behind, and Atlanta closing to within 3.5 games. Everyone else is at least 6 games behind and below .500.
The Rockies close out the Cubs Series Monday night, followed by hosting the Pirates for 3 and then heading to Florida for a weekend series.
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ROCKIES NOTES:
Hits Don't Count--Runs Do: Much has been made of the Cubs outslugging the Rockies 17-14 on Sunday but losing by 6 runs. It's not uncommon for the losing team to have more hits. Despite the horrendous call at 2nd in the 2nd Inning, not enough credit is given to Jason Hammel for not walking anyone, although he did hit one batter. Hammel clearly struggled, but he didn't lose control, and worked out of it, without giving the Cubs a big inning. The Rockies defense making plays is a big part of the Rockies success this season, and gives the Rockies pitchers renewed confidence that they don't have to be perfect to get out of the jam. We will see how Hammel performs in Florida and Washington in his next two starts, but I think despite the so-so outing today, may lead to more success down the stretch.
Love the NL Central The Rockies continue to be dominant against the NL Central even though their streak of wins was snapped at 15 Saturday night. Overall they are 19-9 against the Central with 14 games remaining.
Streaking: Todd Helton now has a 14 game hitting streak, tied for his 2nd longest streak ever, the last time being July, 2003. His longest streak ever was in June-July, 2003 of 17 games. He went hitless in the game on July 3, 2003 and put the two streaks together to hit in 31 of 32 games.
GoDex Part Deux:Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez were one-two for the 2nd time, going a combined 4 for 9 with a walk 4 runs and and RBI and an SB. In the two games with this lineup, the Duo has gone 9 for 19 has an OBP of .500 6 runs, 2 SB, 2 2B, 2 3B. Best of all, the Rockies have scored 3 runs in the first inning of both games.
Results:
8/4 ROCKIES 8 Phillies 3
8/5 Phillies 7 ROCKIES 0
8/6 Phillies 3 ROCKIES 1
8/7 ROCKIES 6 Cubs 2
8/8 Cubs 6 ROCKIES 5
8/9 ROCKIES 11 Cubs 5
The Giants and Rockies have now both closed to 5.5 games of the Dodgers with LA headed to SF starting Monday night in the first of 24 games down the stretch among the top 3 in the West. The Giants have 9 each left with the Dodgers and Rockies, while the Rockies and Dodgers still have to meet 6 times including a season ending 3 game set in LA.
In the Wild Card the Rockies and Giants are again tied for the lead with the Cubs 2 games behind, Florida 3 games behind, and Atlanta closing to within 3.5 games. Everyone else is at least 6 games behind and below .500.
The Rockies close out the Cubs Series Monday night, followed by hosting the Pirates for 3 and then heading to Florida for a weekend series.
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ROCKIES NOTES:
Hits Don't Count--Runs Do: Much has been made of the Cubs outslugging the Rockies 17-14 on Sunday but losing by 6 runs. It's not uncommon for the losing team to have more hits. Despite the horrendous call at 2nd in the 2nd Inning, not enough credit is given to Jason Hammel for not walking anyone, although he did hit one batter. Hammel clearly struggled, but he didn't lose control, and worked out of it, without giving the Cubs a big inning. The Rockies defense making plays is a big part of the Rockies success this season, and gives the Rockies pitchers renewed confidence that they don't have to be perfect to get out of the jam. We will see how Hammel performs in Florida and Washington in his next two starts, but I think despite the so-so outing today, may lead to more success down the stretch.
Love the NL Central The Rockies continue to be dominant against the NL Central even though their streak of wins was snapped at 15 Saturday night. Overall they are 19-9 against the Central with 14 games remaining.
Streaking: Todd Helton now has a 14 game hitting streak, tied for his 2nd longest streak ever, the last time being July, 2003. His longest streak ever was in June-July, 2003 of 17 games. He went hitless in the game on July 3, 2003 and put the two streaks together to hit in 31 of 32 games.
GoDex Part Deux:Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez were one-two for the 2nd time, going a combined 4 for 9 with a walk 4 runs and and RBI and an SB. In the two games with this lineup, the Duo has gone 9 for 19 has an OBP of .500 6 runs, 2 SB, 2 2B, 2 3B. Best of all, the Rockies have scored 3 runs in the first inning of both games.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Who knew Jim Tracy Read This Blog?
On Wednesday, I asked for Omar Quintanilla to get a start, something Jim Tracy had yet to do since becoming manager 57 games ago. Last Night, Omar was in the lineup batting 8th in his first start since May 20th. He was the only starter including the Pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who didn't get a hit in last night's 6-2 victory over the Cubs. But he did walk and made a few plays at 2nd base. Hopefully he'll get another start or two in the next 60 games.
Although I didn't post it here, another move I was looking forward to--eventually--would be the day that Fowler and Gonzalez were 1-2 in the Rockies Batting order. It happened after Carlos Zambrano was scratched as the Cubs starter moments before the game started, as Dexter replaced Seth Smith as leadoff hitter. CarGo has been playing well lately, but I wasn't expecting to see the GoDex combination at the top this season. It also paid off as Carlos led the 1st inning rally with a triple the first of four straight Rockies hits to get 3 runs and is quietly hitting .424 since the All-Star Break. Fowler meanwhile went 3 for 5 including a triple. Both are now hitting .265 going into Saturday's game. I look forward to this combination at the top of the lineup somewhere in the near future hopefully it will be a regular occurrence in 2010.
HOME SWEET HOME: The Rockies started a stretch last night where they will be home for 24 of the next 33 games through September 10th. During the same stretch the Dodgers have 17 of 32 at home and the Giants have 15 of 32 at Home.
SCHEDULING QUIRK: The Giants, Dodgers and Rockies are all home this weekend for the first time since June 16-17. Those are the only two times all season the 3 teams are home at the same time.
Although I didn't post it here, another move I was looking forward to--eventually--would be the day that Fowler and Gonzalez were 1-2 in the Rockies Batting order. It happened after Carlos Zambrano was scratched as the Cubs starter moments before the game started, as Dexter replaced Seth Smith as leadoff hitter. CarGo has been playing well lately, but I wasn't expecting to see the GoDex combination at the top this season. It also paid off as Carlos led the 1st inning rally with a triple the first of four straight Rockies hits to get 3 runs and is quietly hitting .424 since the All-Star Break. Fowler meanwhile went 3 for 5 including a triple. Both are now hitting .265 going into Saturday's game. I look forward to this combination at the top of the lineup somewhere in the near future hopefully it will be a regular occurrence in 2010.
HOME SWEET HOME: The Rockies started a stretch last night where they will be home for 24 of the next 33 games through September 10th. During the same stretch the Dodgers have 17 of 32 at home and the Giants have 15 of 32 at Home.
SCHEDULING QUIRK: The Giants, Dodgers and Rockies are all home this weekend for the first time since June 16-17. Those are the only two times all season the 3 teams are home at the same time.
Friday, August 7, 2009
The final Third
Baseball seasons are very long and for that reason, it is difficult to get too wrapped up in a game to game basis. It's much easier to divide the season into segments. So far the Rockies have had essentially two vastly different segments that roughly fall into thirds of the season of 54 games each.
In the first third, the Rockies failed miserably falling to 20-32 and in severe danger of being out of the playoffs. The first two games of an 11 game winning streak put them at 22-32 at the 54 game mark.
Yesterday, following two losses in Philadelphia, the Rockies completed the 2nd third of the season at 59-49 going 37-17 in the process. What's most impressive is that in the 2nd third, the Rockies have gone 18-10 on the road (20-10 since June 3rd)
What remains in the final third, will determine whether there are any games beyond October 4th.
My best guess is that it will take 90 wins to get the Wild Card, but a lot more to win the division, possibly 95 if the Dodgers fall a little bit. But the Wild Card is still the playoffs which we found out only two years ago on the magical run of 2007.
To win 90 games the Rockies would have to go 31-23 down the stretch. It's also reasonable to expect that the Rockies will go through at least one extended slump in the final two months. I actually expected the last road trip to be a possible pothole, and it started out like so many extended road trips of the past. For the Rockies to salvage 5 wins out of the 10 games, makes the rest of the season manageable.
Now they are at the point that they have 33 home games against 21 road games. The easy way to track their 90 game pace is to look at home game remaining vs. how many wins they need to get to 90. Currently that number is +2. It will be one of the methods I use to track the rest of the way.
Let's look at the other contenders from this standpoint.
Los Angeles (67-42) started the final third of the season last night, with a 9th inning win at home. Altogether their final third is evenly split with 27 home games and 27 road games. They go into the final third at only +4 for 90 games. But they do have more opportunities left to win on the road than the Rockies.
The Giants (60-48) meanwhile also start the final third tonight. Home games remaining 25 Road Games 29 which give them a -5 for 90.
Other teams in the Wild Card Race:
Chicago (57-49) will hit two-thirds tonight and have 29 home and 26 away left. They are at -6.
St. Louis (59-51) have 27 Home and 25 Away left for a -6 also.
Philadelphia (61-45) has 25 home left and 30 road games left and are -4 for 90, but have a great road record at 32-19. We will watch it, but they may be the opposite, using road games as a measure in which they would be currently +1.
Others:
Florida (55-53) 25 H 28 R -10
Atlanta (55-54) 28 H 28 R -7
Milwaukee (54-54) 28 H 26 R -8
Houston (53-55) 25 H 29 R -12
New York (51-57) 26 H 28 R -13
I'll check these numbers as a gauge of how teams are performing. Remember, teams can only improve this number when they are on the road, it will go down when they lose at home.
In the first third, the Rockies failed miserably falling to 20-32 and in severe danger of being out of the playoffs. The first two games of an 11 game winning streak put them at 22-32 at the 54 game mark.
Yesterday, following two losses in Philadelphia, the Rockies completed the 2nd third of the season at 59-49 going 37-17 in the process. What's most impressive is that in the 2nd third, the Rockies have gone 18-10 on the road (20-10 since June 3rd)
What remains in the final third, will determine whether there are any games beyond October 4th.
My best guess is that it will take 90 wins to get the Wild Card, but a lot more to win the division, possibly 95 if the Dodgers fall a little bit. But the Wild Card is still the playoffs which we found out only two years ago on the magical run of 2007.
To win 90 games the Rockies would have to go 31-23 down the stretch. It's also reasonable to expect that the Rockies will go through at least one extended slump in the final two months. I actually expected the last road trip to be a possible pothole, and it started out like so many extended road trips of the past. For the Rockies to salvage 5 wins out of the 10 games, makes the rest of the season manageable.
Now they are at the point that they have 33 home games against 21 road games. The easy way to track their 90 game pace is to look at home game remaining vs. how many wins they need to get to 90. Currently that number is +2. It will be one of the methods I use to track the rest of the way.
Let's look at the other contenders from this standpoint.
Los Angeles (67-42) started the final third of the season last night, with a 9th inning win at home. Altogether their final third is evenly split with 27 home games and 27 road games. They go into the final third at only +4 for 90 games. But they do have more opportunities left to win on the road than the Rockies.
The Giants (60-48) meanwhile also start the final third tonight. Home games remaining 25 Road Games 29 which give them a -5 for 90.
Other teams in the Wild Card Race:
Chicago (57-49) will hit two-thirds tonight and have 29 home and 26 away left. They are at -6.
St. Louis (59-51) have 27 Home and 25 Away left for a -6 also.
Philadelphia (61-45) has 25 home left and 30 road games left and are -4 for 90, but have a great road record at 32-19. We will watch it, but they may be the opposite, using road games as a measure in which they would be currently +1.
Others:
Florida (55-53) 25 H 28 R -10
Atlanta (55-54) 28 H 28 R -7
Milwaukee (54-54) 28 H 26 R -8
Houston (53-55) 25 H 29 R -12
New York (51-57) 26 H 28 R -13
I'll check these numbers as a gauge of how teams are performing. Remember, teams can only improve this number when they are on the road, it will go down when they lose at home.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Last 10
You see it in standings in papers and websites all over the country. "Last 10" which simply stands for the record a team has in the last 10 games played. And it varies with most teams somewhere between 3-7 and 7-3 at any given time, although a prolonged winning or losing streak would send it to 8-2 or 1-9.
Which brings us back to the Rockies. In the first 54 games of the season, from game 10 to 54, if you had looked at the Last 10, you would have seen 4-6, 3-7 or 2-8 a grand total of 36 times total, and 5-5 another 9 times. You also would have only seen 6-4 on one occasion following the first game of the first San Francisco series at Coors on May 6th. Then on June 7th and after the Last 10 for the Rockies showed a record of 5-5 or above for the past 52 games, which means they have never had a losing record in the Last 10 column since then (and won't have it happen in at least the next 5 games either because they've won 5 in a row.)
Here is the overall number of times the Rockies have achieved the following in the Last 10 this season.
10-0--2 times
9-1--8 Times
8-2--4 Times
7-3--12 Times
6-4--19 Times
5-5--16 Times
4-6--24 Times
3-7--9 Times
2-8--3 Times
1-9--Never
0-10--Never
LAST NIGHT:
Biggest moment of last night's 8-3 win against the Phillies game had to be Jason Hammel striking out Ryan Howard with the bases loaded on a 3-2 pitch. I've gotta admit, I still have dread in those situations that something bad is going to happen.
Also was happy that Garrett Atkins had a good night. He's been left behind a lot as the Rockies surge continues, but it's good to have him and Ian Stewart still on the team and contributing.
FORGOTTEN MAN
Speaking of contributing, I realize that Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki are the best options on defense up the middle, but is it too much to ask to give Omar Quintanilla a start or two somewhere especially with Barmes slumping lately? How about in the Pittsburgh series next week or in Washington on the next trip. It would be nice for him to have a lot more AB's down the stretch. He seems to be forgotten down there. If there is no use for him, let's send him down for August to get some work in the minors, and bring someone else up. He's only had 16 AB's since Jim Tracy took over and last started on May 20th in Atlanta.
Which brings us back to the Rockies. In the first 54 games of the season, from game 10 to 54, if you had looked at the Last 10, you would have seen 4-6, 3-7 or 2-8 a grand total of 36 times total, and 5-5 another 9 times. You also would have only seen 6-4 on one occasion following the first game of the first San Francisco series at Coors on May 6th. Then on June 7th and after the Last 10 for the Rockies showed a record of 5-5 or above for the past 52 games, which means they have never had a losing record in the Last 10 column since then (and won't have it happen in at least the next 5 games either because they've won 5 in a row.)
Here is the overall number of times the Rockies have achieved the following in the Last 10 this season.
10-0--2 times
9-1--8 Times
8-2--4 Times
7-3--12 Times
6-4--19 Times
5-5--16 Times
4-6--24 Times
3-7--9 Times
2-8--3 Times
1-9--Never
0-10--Never
LAST NIGHT:
Biggest moment of last night's 8-3 win against the Phillies game had to be Jason Hammel striking out Ryan Howard with the bases loaded on a 3-2 pitch. I've gotta admit, I still have dread in those situations that something bad is going to happen.
Also was happy that Garrett Atkins had a good night. He's been left behind a lot as the Rockies surge continues, but it's good to have him and Ian Stewart still on the team and contributing.
FORGOTTEN MAN
Speaking of contributing, I realize that Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki are the best options on defense up the middle, but is it too much to ask to give Omar Quintanilla a start or two somewhere especially with Barmes slumping lately? How about in the Pittsburgh series next week or in Washington on the next trip. It would be nice for him to have a lot more AB's down the stretch. He seems to be forgotten down there. If there is no use for him, let's send him down for August to get some work in the minors, and bring someone else up. He's only had 16 AB's since Jim Tracy took over and last started on May 20th in Atlanta.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Good Day for the Rockies
Yesterday was an Off-Day, but they re-took the wild card lead over the Giants and gained a half-game on the Dodgers as both teams lost last night.
Rockies back into action tonight against the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park for the first of a 3 game set.
Rockies back into action tonight against the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park for the first of a 3 game set.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Weekly Race in Review July 27-August 2
Although the Rockies started out badly on their road trip, losing the first 3 games in New York and not scoring for 27 consecutive innings, they did what they needed to do in Cincinnati to have a 4-3 week after salvaging the last game against the Mets.
Results:
7/27 New York Mets 7 ROCKIES 3
7/28 New York Mets 4 ROCKIES 0
7/29 ROCKIES at New York Mets Ppd, Rain
7/30 (Game 1) New York Mets 7 ROCKIES 0
7/30 (Game 2) ROCKIES 4 New York Mets 2
7/31 ROCKIES 5 Cincinnati 3
8/01 ROCKIES 6 Cincinnati 2
8/02 ROCKIES 6 Cincinnati 4 11 Innings
The Giants meanwhile had a 6-1 week at home, even beating the Rockies next Opponent the Phillies 3 out of 4 games to get back into a tie for the Wild Card.
The Dodgers had a 3-4 week on the Road, allowing the Rockies to shave 1 game off the lead and the Giants 3.
In the Wild Card race other than San Francisco, only St. Louis (5-2) and Florida (4-2) had better a better record for the week than the Rockies. St. Louis currently leads the Cubs by a Game in the NL Central though so are not in the Wild Card formula at the moment.
The Cubs and Mets meanwhile ended up keeping pace with the Rockies at 4-3 despite the Mets 3-1 advantage in their series this week. The Rockies go head to head with the Cubs in 4 games at Coors this coming weekend.
Other Wild Card Contenders Milwaukee (3-4) Atlanta (2-4) and Houston (2-5) lost ground on the race this week.
The Rockies have an off day Monday, before playing 3 in Philadelphia and then coming home for 4 with the Cubs.
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ROCKIES NOTES:
Quirks: I mentioned quirks of the schedule yesterday, here's another one. The Rockies have completed all 19 of their road games with the NL Central going an incredible 13-6 (after starting out 2-6), but still have 17 of their 23 Home games with the Central left. Furthermore the Rox have won 14 in a row with the NL Central dating back to June 4 in Houston. Overall they are 17-8 vs. the Central Division.
Good Days and Bad Days: The Rockies loss Thursday in the Day part of the Day/Night Doubleheader was the Rockies first loss on the Road on Thursday this season. They are 5-1 so far with two scheduled games left. Overall they are 7-3 on Thursdays, and 11-6 on Sundays. The only day they have a losing record is Tuesdays at 6-9.
Not Much OT: Sunday was the first time the Rockies have won in extra innings all season, but it was only the 5th time they had an extra-inning game in 2009. Only the White Sox have fewer Extra Inning Games with 4 and the Brewers also have 5. The Cubs and the Blue Jays lead the majors with 14 each.
Slumping?: The Rockies finished July with a 15-11 Record. In 2008, the Rockies were 17-10 in July.
Results:
7/27 New York Mets 7 ROCKIES 3
7/28 New York Mets 4 ROCKIES 0
7/29 ROCKIES at New York Mets Ppd, Rain
7/30 (Game 1) New York Mets 7 ROCKIES 0
7/30 (Game 2) ROCKIES 4 New York Mets 2
7/31 ROCKIES 5 Cincinnati 3
8/01 ROCKIES 6 Cincinnati 2
8/02 ROCKIES 6 Cincinnati 4 11 Innings
The Giants meanwhile had a 6-1 week at home, even beating the Rockies next Opponent the Phillies 3 out of 4 games to get back into a tie for the Wild Card.
The Dodgers had a 3-4 week on the Road, allowing the Rockies to shave 1 game off the lead and the Giants 3.
In the Wild Card race other than San Francisco, only St. Louis (5-2) and Florida (4-2) had better a better record for the week than the Rockies. St. Louis currently leads the Cubs by a Game in the NL Central though so are not in the Wild Card formula at the moment.
The Cubs and Mets meanwhile ended up keeping pace with the Rockies at 4-3 despite the Mets 3-1 advantage in their series this week. The Rockies go head to head with the Cubs in 4 games at Coors this coming weekend.
Other Wild Card Contenders Milwaukee (3-4) Atlanta (2-4) and Houston (2-5) lost ground on the race this week.
The Rockies have an off day Monday, before playing 3 in Philadelphia and then coming home for 4 with the Cubs.
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ROCKIES NOTES:
Quirks: I mentioned quirks of the schedule yesterday, here's another one. The Rockies have completed all 19 of their road games with the NL Central going an incredible 13-6 (after starting out 2-6), but still have 17 of their 23 Home games with the Central left. Furthermore the Rox have won 14 in a row with the NL Central dating back to June 4 in Houston. Overall they are 17-8 vs. the Central Division.
Good Days and Bad Days: The Rockies loss Thursday in the Day part of the Day/Night Doubleheader was the Rockies first loss on the Road on Thursday this season. They are 5-1 so far with two scheduled games left. Overall they are 7-3 on Thursdays, and 11-6 on Sundays. The only day they have a losing record is Tuesdays at 6-9.
Not Much OT: Sunday was the first time the Rockies have won in extra innings all season, but it was only the 5th time they had an extra-inning game in 2009. Only the White Sox have fewer Extra Inning Games with 4 and the Brewers also have 5. The Cubs and the Blue Jays lead the majors with 14 each.
Slumping?: The Rockies finished July with a 15-11 Record. In 2008, the Rockies were 17-10 in July.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Quirks of the Schedule
I've never liked the baseball schedule since they moved to interleague play in 1997 and the current 16/14 split between the NL and AL teams. The schedule is by necessity uneven, but it was so much better when you had the same number of games home and away vs. any team in a division.
In some ways the deterioration of the schedule started when Seattle and Toronto were added in the AL in 1977. The addition of Colorado and Florida to the NL in 1993 evened it up again, but Tampa Bay and Arizona were added in 1998 and Milwaukee switched to the NL that year, which is the current configuration.
But we are stuck with it. My big problem now is that the schedules seem to be configured for the Eastern teams, and other big cities like Chicago and Los Angeles. The other teams like the Rockies get their schedule seemingly as leftovers. This is why there are ridiculous things in the schedule, like playing 6 games in Arizona on two separate trips before playing 4 games total at home. Or playing 30 of 45 games on the road.
The one good thing I can say about this year's schedule is that they don't have any three time zone road trips like they had last year, and only one where they had to go to two time zones on one trip.
Regardless you still have to play 81 games at home and 81 games on the road over the course of a season, so any one sided glitches in one point of the season will allow you to have a huge favorable schedule later.
The fact that the Rockies have a winning record on the road this year, has raised my optimism for the rest of the season.
As of today, the Rockies have played 105 Games, 57 on the Road and 48 at home. By Thursday they will be 2/3rds of the way through the season with 21 remaining Away games, and 33 remaining at home.
The best news is that the Rockies are currently 58-47 and only need to go 32-25 to reach 90 wins, which usually is good enough to gain the Wild Card entry. To simplify this, all they need to do is win 1 game on the road for each loss at home to get to 90 wins.
Nothing is ever certain, but looking at it that way looks a lot easier than it did when they were 20-32 and needed to go 70-40 to accomplish 90 wins, doesn't it?
In some ways the deterioration of the schedule started when Seattle and Toronto were added in the AL in 1977. The addition of Colorado and Florida to the NL in 1993 evened it up again, but Tampa Bay and Arizona were added in 1998 and Milwaukee switched to the NL that year, which is the current configuration.
But we are stuck with it. My big problem now is that the schedules seem to be configured for the Eastern teams, and other big cities like Chicago and Los Angeles. The other teams like the Rockies get their schedule seemingly as leftovers. This is why there are ridiculous things in the schedule, like playing 6 games in Arizona on two separate trips before playing 4 games total at home. Or playing 30 of 45 games on the road.
The one good thing I can say about this year's schedule is that they don't have any three time zone road trips like they had last year, and only one where they had to go to two time zones on one trip.
Regardless you still have to play 81 games at home and 81 games on the road over the course of a season, so any one sided glitches in one point of the season will allow you to have a huge favorable schedule later.
The fact that the Rockies have a winning record on the road this year, has raised my optimism for the rest of the season.
As of today, the Rockies have played 105 Games, 57 on the Road and 48 at home. By Thursday they will be 2/3rds of the way through the season with 21 remaining Away games, and 33 remaining at home.
The best news is that the Rockies are currently 58-47 and only need to go 32-25 to reach 90 wins, which usually is good enough to gain the Wild Card entry. To simplify this, all they need to do is win 1 game on the road for each loss at home to get to 90 wins.
Nothing is ever certain, but looking at it that way looks a lot easier than it did when they were 20-32 and needed to go 70-40 to accomplish 90 wins, doesn't it?
Baseball is a Funny Game
Which is probably why I like it so much. It can be frustrating, mind-boggling and exhilarating all at the same time. It's also streaky.
I grew up as a Philadelphia Phillies fan. To the best of my knowledge, I don't remember the 1964 season when they had a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 games to play. And blew it by losing 10 in a row before winning the last two games. No, I became a fan the next year, when they would have some very miserable years, before they finally won their first World Series in 1980.
In 1976, the Phillies had a 25-5 run, from late April to early June moving to a 32-11 record and never looked back as they finished with 101 wins.
Sometimes a good run can carry you for the rest of the season:
The 1982 Atlanta Braves started the season with a 13 game winning streak--then were 76-73 the rest of the season, and won their division.
Sometimes you a good start is just the beginning:
The 1984 Detroit Tigers won 35 of their first 40 on their way to winning the World Series
**********************************************************************************
I became a Colorado Rockies fan in 1993 when they began, but I really started to follow them in depth in 1997 when I moved to the Denver area and fell in love with Coors Field. No, I became a fan right when they would have some miserable seasons having losing seasons for the next 10 years.
During the 2007 season however, my full allegiance moved from the Phillies to the Rockies despite both teams having amazing finishes:
The Phillies avenged the ghost of 1964, as they overcame a 7 game deficit to the Mets by winning 13 of their last 17 games, while the Mets lost 12 of their final 17.
Meanwhile the Rockies who were playing .500 ball all season, and had never in franchise history had more than a 7 game winning streak, won 11 in a row, lost 1 and then followed that up with a 10 game winning streak propelling them to their first World Series via the Wild Card Berth. Amazingly, they had to overcome a 7.5 game deficit to the Mets with only 15 games to play to do it.
Which brings us to this year. The Rockies were buried 12 games under .500 and in the midst of an 11 game road trip in which they had lost the first 3 before heading to the 1st and 2nd place teams in the Central division, when they started on another 11 game winning streak. Many times, especially if you are really a bad team, the end of the streak will send you back into a tailspin, but the Rockies met the loss with a 6 game winning streak. Overall, they have currently won 21 of 25 and are about to embark on a stretch of 16 home games out of the next 20 games after today.
Good news for the Rockies?--Like I said Baseball is a funny game. Check back with me later this month.
Note: The Above was reprinted from the TotallyGruntled Blog originally Posted 7/1/2009
I grew up as a Philadelphia Phillies fan. To the best of my knowledge, I don't remember the 1964 season when they had a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 games to play. And blew it by losing 10 in a row before winning the last two games. No, I became a fan the next year, when they would have some very miserable years, before they finally won their first World Series in 1980.
In 1976, the Phillies had a 25-5 run, from late April to early June moving to a 32-11 record and never looked back as they finished with 101 wins.
Sometimes a good run can carry you for the rest of the season:
The 1982 Atlanta Braves started the season with a 13 game winning streak--then were 76-73 the rest of the season, and won their division.
Sometimes you a good start is just the beginning:
The 1984 Detroit Tigers won 35 of their first 40 on their way to winning the World Series
**********************************************************************************
I became a Colorado Rockies fan in 1993 when they began, but I really started to follow them in depth in 1997 when I moved to the Denver area and fell in love with Coors Field. No, I became a fan right when they would have some miserable seasons having losing seasons for the next 10 years.
During the 2007 season however, my full allegiance moved from the Phillies to the Rockies despite both teams having amazing finishes:
The Phillies avenged the ghost of 1964, as they overcame a 7 game deficit to the Mets by winning 13 of their last 17 games, while the Mets lost 12 of their final 17.
Meanwhile the Rockies who were playing .500 ball all season, and had never in franchise history had more than a 7 game winning streak, won 11 in a row, lost 1 and then followed that up with a 10 game winning streak propelling them to their first World Series via the Wild Card Berth. Amazingly, they had to overcome a 7.5 game deficit to the Mets with only 15 games to play to do it.
Which brings us to this year. The Rockies were buried 12 games under .500 and in the midst of an 11 game road trip in which they had lost the first 3 before heading to the 1st and 2nd place teams in the Central division, when they started on another 11 game winning streak. Many times, especially if you are really a bad team, the end of the streak will send you back into a tailspin, but the Rockies met the loss with a 6 game winning streak. Overall, they have currently won 21 of 25 and are about to embark on a stretch of 16 home games out of the next 20 games after today.
Good news for the Rockies?--Like I said Baseball is a funny game. Check back with me later this month.
Note: The Above was reprinted from the TotallyGruntled Blog originally Posted 7/1/2009
Welcome!
Welcome to Totally Gruntled Rockies! An extension of the Totally Gruntled Blog but specifically about the Colorado Rockies.
In this blog we hope to give you insight about the numbers and the pennant races for the Colorado Rockies and other things in Major League Baseball.
Hope you join us for the exciting 2009 Season.
In this blog we hope to give you insight about the numbers and the pennant races for the Colorado Rockies and other things in Major League Baseball.
Hope you join us for the exciting 2009 Season.
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