The final Third

Baseball seasons are very long and for that reason, it is difficult to get too wrapped up in a game to game basis. It's much easier to divide the season into segments. So far the Rockies have had essentially two vastly different segments that roughly fall into thirds of the season of 54 games each.

In the first third, the Rockies failed miserably falling to 20-32 and in severe danger of being out of the playoffs. The first two games of an 11 game winning streak put them at 22-32 at the 54 game mark.

Yesterday, following two losses in Philadelphia, the Rockies completed the 2nd third of the season at 59-49 going 37-17 in the process. What's most impressive is that in the 2nd third, the Rockies have gone 18-10 on the road (20-10 since June 3rd)

What remains in the final third, will determine whether there are any games beyond October 4th.

My best guess is that it will take 90 wins to get the Wild Card, but a lot more to win the division, possibly 95 if the Dodgers fall a little bit. But the Wild Card is still the playoffs which we found out only two years ago on the magical run of 2007.

To win 90 games the Rockies would have to go 31-23 down the stretch. It's also reasonable to expect that the Rockies will go through at least one extended slump in the final two months. I actually expected the last road trip to be a possible pothole, and it started out like so many extended road trips of the past. For the Rockies to salvage 5 wins out of the 10 games, makes the rest of the season manageable.

Now they are at the point that they have 33 home games against 21 road games. The easy way to track their 90 game pace is to look at home game remaining vs. how many wins they need to get to 90. Currently that number is +2. It will be one of the methods I use to track the rest of the way.

Let's look at the other contenders from this standpoint.

Los Angeles (67-42) started the final third of the season last night, with a 9th inning win at home. Altogether their final third is evenly split with 27 home games and 27 road games. They go into the final third at only +4 for 90 games. But they do have more opportunities left to win on the road than the Rockies.

The Giants (60-48) meanwhile also start the final third tonight. Home games remaining 25 Road Games 29 which give them a -5 for 90.

Other teams in the Wild Card Race:
Chicago (57-49) will hit two-thirds tonight and have 29 home and 26 away left. They are at -6.

St. Louis (59-51) have 27 Home and 25 Away left for a -6 also.

Philadelphia (61-45) has 25 home left and 30 road games left and are -4 for 90, but have a great road record at 32-19. We will watch it, but they may be the opposite, using road games as a measure in which they would be currently +1.

Others:
Florida (55-53) 25 H 28 R -10
Atlanta (55-54) 28 H 28 R -7
Milwaukee (54-54) 28 H 26 R -8
Houston (53-55) 25 H 29 R -12
New York (51-57) 26 H 28 R -13

I'll check these numbers as a gauge of how teams are performing. Remember, teams can only improve this number when they are on the road, it will go down when they lose at home.