How The Rockies Make the Playoffs.

I'm not going to make it a habit of commenting on articles in the paper or on other blogs, but after reading Troy Renck's article in today's Denver Post I decided to make an exception.

Let's take on a couple of the points:

1. It would work out better for the Rockies if the Cubs win the NL Central "because Colorado plays the Cardinals in a three-game set at the end of September with a chance to eliminate them."

I'm not sure who he is referring to on who eliminates whom, but it really doesn't matter who wins the NL Central to the Rockies. In fact at that point with 9 games left on the schedule, either the NL Central or the Wild Card could be decided. The games also could decide one or other of the races. It's also possible Milwaukee could climb into the race and the Cardinals and Cubs fade, and the Milwaukee series against the Rockies the last week of the season could have more meaning.

My point is, it's just way too early to speculate on how the NL Central would or wouldn't impact the Rockies chances for the playoffs.

2. "If the Central resolves itself it all comes down to the Giants." Renck insists that the Rockies need to go 3-3 in SF and 3-1 at home. Once again I disagree. It would be nice to win like that against San Francisco but a 5-5 splits, makes it even, and even if the Giants win 6 or 7 doesn't kill the Rockies chances. The main reason is that there are 15 games AFTER the last Giants game, and we all know the difference 15 games can make. Another reason is starting tonight the Giants still have 9 games against the Dodgers while the Rockies have 6.

Let's also compare the out of division games for the Giants:
Road: (13)
Mets (4)
Reds (3)
Phils (3)
Brewers (3)

Home (4)
Cubs (4)

Compare that with the Rockies
Away (6)
Marlins (3)
Nationals (3)

Home: (18)
Cubs (1)
Pirates (3)
Mets (4)
Reds (4)
Cards (3)
Brewers (3)

Look back at a key 4 game series between the Rockies and the Phillies back in the Second week of September, 2007. At the time, the series began, both teams were 6 games behind their respective Division leader, and the Rockies came in 1 game behind the Phillies who were two games behind the Padres for the Wild Card. It was widely assumed that they both needed to win at least 3 out of 4 to keep their playoff chances alive. They split the series, and both teams lost a half-game on the leaders. The Phillies then won 14 of their next 17 to win the East and the Rockies lost two more before winning 14 of 15 to get the Wild Card.

To pin the season solely on 9 games with 51 to play is ludicrous. It could even be that neither team comes anywhere near the Wild Card in the end.

3. Marquis and Cook must go 13-7 down the stretch. I'm assuming he means the Rockies must win 13 of 20 of their starts, not that they have to actually have that record.
3a. If Cook lands on the DL the Rockies aren't making the playoffs.
I think if Marquis and Cook go 13-7 down the stretch, it means the other starters must go 16-15 to hit 90 wins. What Renck doesn't even bother to mention is that even if the pitchers start struggling in their outings, it still is up to the Rockies slumbering bats to finally take over and win some games. It's possible that the pitching overall has worse numbers in the last 50 games and still wins a lot of games because of the hitting.

4. Not even mentioned in the article is the possibility the Dodgers get overtaken by either the Giants or the Rockies (or both.) With a 5.5 game lead and 51 games left it's a possibility.

I have confidence that Jim Tracy isn't going to let the Rockies lose their focus for very long if things don't go well. The key to me is getting to September in position and using an expanded bench and bullpen a la Hurdle did in 2007, to work through any rough spots. I don't expect another 14 of 15 down the stretch. Take it day by day.

I hope Woody Paige gives Troy Renck his keyboard back.

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2017 Followup--I'm revisiting this in July, 2017, when the Rockies are in the midst of another Wild Card Race.

1. Cardinals came into Colorado having clinched a tie for the NL Central Division with 9 Games to Play.   Rockies took two of  three with the Cardinals clinching the NL Central in the 2nd game of the series.

2. The Rockies took 3 of 4 on Blake Street but only 1 of 6 at AT&T Park.  The Rockies still left SF for the final time in 2009 with a 3.5 game lead.

The Rockies also went 4-2 on the Eastern Road trip and 15-3 out of division home the rest of the way. (19-5 total)

The Giants went 7-6 out of division on the road, 1-3 against the Cubs at home (8-9 total)  This effectively gave the Rockies a 7.5 game advantage in out of division games down the stretch. The Rockies ultimately won the Wild Card by 4 games.

3.  Rockies went 2-2 in Cook's 4 starts, 5-6 in Marquis starts or 7-8 total.  Despite this, the Rockies chased the Dodgers to the next to the last day of the season for the NL West Title.  Jimenez 7-3, and De La Rosa 9-2 carried the pitching.

3a. Cook landed on the DL in late August missing 6 starts.

4. The Dodgers never got overtaken, but the Rockies got the lead down to 1, before being eliminated in game 161 at Los Angeles.