The Collapse

You've heard it before, "all teams get injuries", "injuries are no excuse".   This year the Rockies have had injuries to too many key players to really contend.  From last night's game notes:




After last night's activation of Carlos Gonzalez, that still leaves 8 players on the DL, 7 of them pitchers.  Brett Anderson will come back tomorrow, but the damage is already done.

The Rockies never have deep starting pitching and this year so far have used 13 different starting pitchers.  Their projected 5 Starters at the beginning of the season (De La Rosa, Anderson, Chacin, Lyles, and Nicasio) have started a total of 59 of 93 games and De La Rosa has 19 of them.  Chacin is done for the season most likely, Nicasio struggled without being hurt and is back in the minors. 

For much of the year up until yesterday, there have been at least two of the starting 8 on the DL as well.  Cuddyer is the only starting fielder who is still on the DL and has missed 56 games so far on two stints.  Arenado missed 37 games, Gonzalez 35 and Rosario 12, although he has had other minor injuries that have not landed him on the DL in June and July.  Fortuately, the Rockies have adequate backup in the Outfield to make up for Cuddyer's and Gonzalez's loss, but the lack of infield depth hurt. 

I think Nolan Arenado's injury was the biggest blow, because try as they may with several players, there was no adequate fielding backup to Arenado, and outs that he could have made became hits and taxed the pitching even more. 

But in the end, the pitching wore down quickly which affected the bullpen, (which was less than effective to begin with) overworking many of them.  

With the upcoming break it may bring some relief, to recharge and start over.  Winning the division is out of the question, but getting back to .500 and respectability is a noble goal for 2014.   Getting the pitchers healthy will go a long way to achieving it.

But will they come through?

Hope is on the Way!

Strikeouts, low RISP, bad fielding, and some awful pitching led to a disaster in May after May 7th.  And for the 22nd year in a row the Rockies failed to have a winning record in both April and May in the same season.

Ever the optimist, I can honestly say I predicted the last few weeks would be tough.   Sure it could be better but the 6-14 slide that has happened over the last 3.5 weeks was the right timing.  Just before that the Rockies had put together a 14-5 stretch scoring 7 or more runs 11 times.  They were bound to cool off and the road beckoned to help aid it.

28-28 is not great, but it's not horrible either.  Two of the longest road trips are done, with none of their future road trips going to more than two cities.   And yes, they will have to win more than 36% of their road games the rest of the way to compete in the West or Wild Card.

Their Road/Home imbalance is currently 33-23 (with one suspended home game) which means they have 10 games to bring them back to even and they just so happen to have a 10 game road trip coming up starting tomorrow.  They also have only 12 more games in the Eastern Time Zone the rest of the season where they are  currently 4-12 (Other time Zones, Mountain 16-7, Pacific 7-6, and Central 1-3)

The next 48 games bring 32 games to Coors Field vs. 16 on the Road.  This includes two 10-game home stands.  It's time to right the ship and start building toward a race down the stretch.   If the Rockies continue to stumble through this stretch then game over.

At the Quarter Pole

Normally during the first couple months of the season, there are plenty of scheduled off days and rainouts which makes it sometimes slow going in the beginning.  This year, the Rockies were given two scheduled off days, and I don't believe they even have had a rain delay yet, and have completed 40 games in 42 games.  They now get rewarded by having 5 off days in the next 22, before playing 36 in 37 days into early July before getting one more off day before having a 3 game series followed by the All-Star Break.

Given all that and the injuries to 3 Starting Pitchers and 2 everyday players, the Rockies have weathered the first storm by going 23-17 matching the best ever first quarter tying the records of 1995 and 1997.

The Rockies are holding their own on the road (10-12), and exploding at home (13-5).  The most impressive stat I have is that the Rockies pitching has held their opponents to 4 or less runs in 24 of the first 40 games and have won 20 of those games.  This includes losing 2 such games over the weekend.   On the other hand they have scored 5 or more runs 22 times and have won 18 of those games.  

Tonight they start the 2nd quarter and although a slump is coming at some point, how they weather that will determine how they do in the 2nd half.

The Long Road Begins

The Rockies finished a successful home stand tonight and are headed on the road for the first of two consecutive 3 city Road trips.   Overall the Rockies will play the next 16 of 22 on the Road.  There is plenty of reason to believe the Rockies will slog through the rest of the month, but there are some good signs as well.

Minuses:  The Rockies traditionally don't do well on the road especially in the Eastern Time Zone.   And the Rockies are going to play 12 of the 16 road games in the East.  The Rockies have also been exceedingly hot hitting lately with 5 of their six game homestand scoring 7 or more runs.  Tulo, Arenado, Blackmon, Morneau are all bound to cool off at some point, if they all do it at the same time then it could mean some losses.

Pluses:  The Rockies have surged while encountering injuries to Cuddyer, Rosario, Chatwood and Anderson.  The Rockies have also had 20 games (12 at home) where they held the opponent to 4 runs or less and are 18-2 in those games (12-0 at home).  In fact the Rockies pitching have only given up more than 5 runs only 7 times in the first 34 games.

Two weeks ago, when the Rockies embarked on the current 22 of 34 on the road, they were 12-11.  I felt if they could tread water and get out of May at .500 they would be in good shape.  Now with over a third of those games over and the Rockies coming through with a 9-3 record, if they can play .500 from this point forward through June 1st, they would be 31-24.

But the Rockies should enjoy the ride and keep the magic.

Thoughts after Four Weeks

After 4 weeks the Rockies are 14-12 a year ago they were 15-10 after 4 weeks.  Comparable starts between the two years.  Last year the Rockies would get to 19-13 and eventually 27-21 before falling the rest of the season.

There are a lot of ups and downs throughout the season.  Lots of things happen during the season, but you need to get your footing and be consistent over time.

After roughly one month the Rockies have had some really bad outings as well as some really spectacular wins.  They have 5 wins already when scoring 1, 2, or 3 runs.   They have also lost 2 games when scoring 9 or more runs.

This afternoon they won their first road series and gained their first Sunday Win of the season.

I had to stretch to get this streak, but the Rockies this weekend started a stretch in which they will play 22 of 34 on the road through June 1st.   Ideally they need to go no worse than 17-17 during this stretch and possibly have a winning record over that stretch.  This stretch includes the only 2 3 city road trips the Rockies have all year, and one of them is only 8 days long.  Following that stretch the Rockies play 32 of 48 at home.  

The Rockies also are getting great production off of their bench and in the bullpen.  Brandon Barnes has stepped in during Michael Cuddyer's injury and has been great at the plate filling in.   Adam Ottavino has been lights out so far.

All in all, the Rockies are in a decent position and have held their own against the NL West so far.  Currently 1.5 games behind the Giants and tied for 2nd place.

Let's review in 5 weeks.

The 2014 Campaign

I have to admit, I am just not ready for the 2014 season.  There's an order to things, and I am so used to the first day of the Baseball Season coinciding with the College Basketball Men's Championship Game.   This year it happened a week before that, or even a week before that when two games were played in Australia that nobody really saw.

But now we are nearly 10% into this season and the Rockies are 7-8.   Not a bad start as starts go.  If we go back a year the Rockies were headed to a 17-11 Start, before a 57-77 finish.

Encouraging signs:  The Rockies have scored an average of over 5 runs in the 15 games.   Only 6 games have been 3 runs or less and they have won 2 of those, including last nights 3-2 victory.  They have a 2-1 record against the American League (last year they were 5-15).  Jordan Lyles, the Rockies #3 starter is 2-0 and could have been 3-0.  The team batting average is .295.  The bullpen for the most part other than Wilton Lopez who was sent down to the minors last week have done an incredible job.  Charlie Blackmon has been on fire batting .468 so far.

Troubling Signs:  The Rockies have given up an average of 5.8 runs in 10 games, but 25 of those have been in two games.  #1 Starter Jorge De La Rosa doesn't seem ready to pitch yet having a 9.69 era in 3 starts and not yet seeing the 6th inning.  The bullpen has already been overworked, pitching over 50 innings so far. #2 Starter Brett Anderson is going to miss a month due to a finger injury he got while batting.

Plenty of season left, but the Rockies will need to improve on the road (3-6 so far) and solidify their rotation once they get Jhoulis Chacin back in a couple of weeks.   Right now they have De La Rosa, Morales, Chatwood, Lyles and Nicasio.   Most likely Morales will move to the bullpen when Chacin comes in.   When Anderson gets back there will be another choice to make on the rotation.

A Proper Sendoff for #17

On November 17, 1992, the Rockies made their first selection in the Expansion Draft.   They chose David Nied a young starting Pitcher from the Atlanta Braves.  Thus Nied became the first face of the franchise.  He played for the Rockies from 1993-1996.

David Nied was the first Rockies player to wear #17.

We all know who was the 2nd Rockies Player to wear #17.  From August 2,  1997 to September 29, 2013 Todd Helton wore that number for the Rockies, and after 21 Rockies seasons it will never be worn again.

Last night in Todd Helton's final game at Coors Field the Rockies celebrated from Field Preparation to post-game.    The field was adorned with a huge number 17 mowed into the center field grass.  Two purple 17's were painted in the foul lines on the First Base and Third Base Lines.

In the pre-game ceremony, the Rockies showed a highlight reel of hits and web gems.  His oldest daughter Tierney Faith threw out the first ball to her Dad the catcher.  The Rockies presented Todd with a horse for his ranch.   When the Rockies took the field in the first inning, Helton led the pack onto the field as he always does, but the pack held back and let him own it for a few minutes before they took their positions.

The crowd also gave him standing ovation after standing ovation, and Todd reacted every time by tipping his cap and smiling.

As Helton took his position at first base for the last time in the top of the 9th inning, his two daughters ran onto the field hugged him and swiped first base (which had been adorned with #17 of course) literally and carried it off behind home plate.

Todd did his part in the game by Homering in his 1st at bat, Doubling (of course!) in his 3rd, and hitting a Sac Fly in his 2nd.  Unfortunately his last AB was a strikeout against former teammate Franklin Morales, but that and the 15-5 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox did little to stop the crowd's excitement.

Following the game, the Rockies have a tradition of circling the field after their last regular season home game, and it was led by Mr. Helton.

This was the first time in their history that they gave a farewell to one of their players. They must have needed permission for some of the events, but they did it right.  It was all about Todd and rightfully so.

A fitting farewell to the first Rockies Player to play his entire career in Colorado.

Rockies get "Merciful" 2014 Schedule

With the Rockies currently on their 5th consecutive 3 city road trip, MLB released their 2014 Schedule today, and suffice it to say that the Rockies (barring rainouts) will not have a 1-9 Road Trip in 2014.   That's because there are just 2 three-city road trips, and although they are back to back they total 16 games 7 and 9.

Ther first one comes in early May with the Home and Home AL series against Texas.  After playing the backend two games in Ft. Worth they go to Cincinnati for 3 and then sandwich Kansas City in between two off days.   After a 9 game home stand they go to the east coast to play Atlanta, Philadelphia and Cleveland in 3 game series.

That tells you two things:  The Rockies play the AL Central next year, and they never play more than 2 division rivals on any road trip.

In fact the Rockies make 6 2 city road trips to the West Coast:  SF/SD, LA/AZ in April, SF/LA in June, AZ/SD, SF/AZ in August, and a season ending SD/LA trip in September.

The only real quirk in the schedule is that there are 32 West division games in their last 46 games, which could make or break their season.  But 19 of those Rivalry games are on the road.

Besides KC and Texas home and home, the Rockies will play the White Sox and Minnesota from the AL Central at Home, while going on the road for Cleveland and Detroit.

The Rockies have two 10 game home stands and one 9.  They also play 16 of 19 games at home in one stretch in July playing only 3 games in Pittsburgh following the All-Star break.  That will also end a stretch where they play 32 of 48 at home, starting June 3rd.  Although they play 16 of 22 on the Road just before that there isn't a similar prolonged stretch where they are on the road.

The Grueling Road Trips

When the schedule came out last year, I noted that the Rockies would have 5 consecutive 3 city road trips starting in Mid-June going through Mid-September.  The Rockies just completed the 4th of the 5 road trips. In total they are 24-38 in this stretch with 18 games to go.   Their road trips have been 2-7, 4-6 , 1-9, and 4-6.  Total Road 11-28.  Their home record is 13-10 during this stretch and was 8-9 prior to their 5-1 record on the last home stand.

In 2012, the Rockies had 2 three city road trips, one 8 games, one 9.  In 2011 they had 3 three city road trips all of them of them were to division opponents on the west coast and they were separated by at least one road trip of 2 cities.  This year was overkill with 5 such road trips let alone having 5 trips in a row like that.  I am not sure how much pushback the Rockies can give on the schedule, but it seems like they get awful schedules with a lot of deviations that many of the East coast teams do not get.

To be fair the most ridiculous scheduling I've heard of this year is the one where  NL Central Foes Pittsburgh and St. Louis were scheduled to meet 6 times in April, and 13 times in 6 weeks between late July and Early September.  With an early postponement in Pittsburgh they will play 14 times in that 6 week period.

With 30 games left in the season, 18 at home, it is fair to look at what would constitute a positive season for the Rockies.  They will surpass last year's win total in the next week or two, and the 73 wins of 2011 is likely to be passed at some point.   So at what point does Walt Weiss deserve a second year as manager and we can look forward to 2014?   Clearly 81 wins would do it for sure, but I feel that honestly anything at 76 and above would be the right direction.  Depending on when Cargo comes back and can contribute, this team is a middle reliever or two from seriously contending next year.  The starting pitching has made great strides Chacin, De La Rosa, Chatwood and Nicasio having more good games than clunkers.  In fact when those four have taken the mound this year the Rockies have a 52-39 record.  When anyone else is on the mound to start, the Rockies are 9-32.  With Oswalt, Pomerantz, Bettis, or Manship on the mound the Rockies are a combined 1-16.   Bettis has run into bad luck a couple of times but has pitched well right off the bat.   Defense is good, and even if the Rockies were to trade Fowler for pitching or move Cuddyer to first, the Rockies have some depth in the outfield with Blackmon, Dickerson, Culbertson, and Wheeler.

If defense were considered for MVP and/or Rookie of the Year, then Nolan Arenado would be a near shoo-in for the 2013 ROY Award.  Each night he seems to make at least one or two sensational plays, but in yesterday's game against the Marlins, he made a play that I still can't believe he pulled off.  Going to his right past the foul line with the bases loaded and nobody out, he threw a strike to Catcher Jordan Pacheco who then turned and threw a strike to 1B Ryan Wheeler.  This was after he made two more routine 5-3 plays in the first inning.    This guy gets more amazing for me everyday.    He's also hitting .310 since the All-Star break raising his overall average to a respectable .264.