Best Homestand Ever

The Rockies went 9-1 on this homestand beating out their 8-1 homestand back in June against Seattle, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Without those two home stands the Rockies are 28-25 at Home.

The last 3 weeks can show you just how quickly the ups and downs of baseball can change. Going into the homestand on August 21st, the Rockies were 3.5 games behind the Dodgers and just 2 games ahead of the Giants for the Wild Card. After an initial loss to the Giants and the four game winning streak, the Rockies closed to within 2 games of the Dodgers and 4 games ahead of the Giants on August 25th. After a season longest 5 game losing streak, the Rockies were tied with the Giants and fell 6 games behind the Dodgers by the end of August. The Rockies worked through at least 7 injuries to have a 9-1 homestand, while the Dodgers were playing .500 baseball at 5-5 and the Giants went 4-5. Now they are once again 2 games behind the Dodgers and have a season-high 4.5 game lead in the wild card over the Giants.

Now it gets interesting. While the Giants and Dodgers face off 6 times in the next 10 days, the Rockies sandwich trips to San Diego and Arizona around a 3 game set in San Francisco, every win they get in the next 9 games will allow them to gain on either the Dodgers or the Giants. A 5-4 record on the road trip will guarantee they will still have the Wild Card lead when they return to Coors Field, and possibly give them an NL West lead. At worst, they would have a commanding lead on the Wild Card race over the Giants, and depending on what the Marlins do could have it all but sewn up.

The Rockies did all this while playing 3 sub-.500 teams at home and going 9-1. The Giants played tough teams on the road, the Phillies and Brewers and came back with a respectable 3-3 before losing 2 out of 3 to San Diego at home. For the Giants, the next 9 games represent the same tough stretch the Rockies had in late August. After that only the games with the Cubs at home are against a team with a winning record. The difference is if they come out of the next 9 games with a losing record like the Rockies did, the last two weeks may not matter to them.

The Dodgers meanwhile, on paper at least, have a fairly easy schedule. After the Giants they play Pittsburgh, before going out on the road following the second Giants series against both Washington, and Pittsburgh, before playing 2 in San Diego before the season finale with the Rockies.

Another way to look at it is if the Rockies can match the Dodgers win for win at a minimum, they could be in a position to win the west on the last weekend. In my analysis though the Rockies best shot would be to gain the lead in the West before Sunday the 21st, but that probably requires the Giants to win at least 4 of the 6 against the Dodgers and the Rockies to go 6-3 or 7-2.

It's also important to keep in mind that there is no tiebreaker game for the NL West title if the 2nd place team if there is no battle for the Wild Card. A tie in the standings would mean the Dodgers would get the West Title by virtue of their winning record head to head with the Rockies currently at 12-3. What that means is that the Rockies magic number is 24, but the Dodgers is 18 rather than 20, should everyone else be eliminated from the Wild Card Race.