Tuesday, September 8, 2009

The Comeback Kids

Some statistics I find dubious or misstated at times, because either the statistic doesn't make sense, or it doesn't show true value in analyzing. For instance the Game Winning RBI is given to the player who knocks in the run for their team and they don't relinquish the lead again. So the first run knocked in could be the GWRBI in a 12-11 slugfest if the winning team never trailed, but the the 12th run could be the GWRBI in a slugfest where the winning team breaks an 11-11 tie.

Similarly, come from behind wins, can be a bit misleading. Technically, if a team takes a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st, then it's a come from behind win, whether the home teams scores 10 in the bottom of the first or 2 in the 9th to win, 10-1 or 2-1.

Yesterday, the Rockies had a true come from behind win, trailing 3-1 after 6 innings, and coming back to win 4-3. So was Friday, when the Rockies trailed the D-Backs 4-2 in the 7th before winning 5-4. But according to the Rockies they have comeback wins in 8 of their last 10 victories and 32 overall for the season. While technically true, they trailed the Mets in their first two games last week, 2-0, and 1-0, in the top of the first, and took the lead for before the end of the 3rd. Same thing with the Dodger win two weeks ago.

A better definition for a comeback win is trailing after 6 complete innings, and in that case have 12 for the season. Another case could be made for a comeback win as coming from behind by 3 or more runs at any point in the game, in which case the Rockies have 6 more including the August 24th game in the 14th inning, so they have a real total of 18 come from behind wins.

WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN: The Rockies are once again 30 games over .500 since the June 4th Run began. The Rockies are 58-28 in that span, a very long time to play .667 baseball. If they just hadn't played .385 baseball up to that point, they would be running away with the NL West. Overall, with Jim Tracy at the helm, the Rockies have a 60-32 Record. Only the Yankees at 62-30 are better than the Rockies over that period.

THE INJURY BUG: Troy Tulowitzki left yesterday's game in back pain, and Ubaldo Jimenez tweaked his hamstring running the bases. Dexter Fowler could be back and Cook and Street are making progress. Carlos Gonzalez is back to being Carlos Gonzalez. The Rockies are playing through a rash of injuries and are still not totally slumping. In fact the Rockies are 10-6 since Aaron Cook went down on August 21st, and are 19-11 since Cook first had the toe problem, back on August 6th.

MONDAY, MONDAY: The Rockies played their last Monday home game of the season and finished 6-1 on Mondays at Home, only losing to the Dodgers 16-6 on Memorial Day. Their last Monday game is next week at San Francisco. They are 4-6 on the Road on Mondays. The Rockies are also 16-8 overall on Sundays, their best day. Their worst day is Tuesdays when they are 10-10. Thursdays are the only day, the Rockies don't have at least 10 wins overall, at 8-6 but have 3 more chances.

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