It Was A Very Good Year

It wasn't fun to go out after one game, and I'm not a fan of one game "Series" in baseball, but that's another story.

In the end, outside of the Wild Card Game, the Rockies were let down by their hitting, more specifically their run scoring.   The Rockies had 8 Starting Pitchers, 4 Rookies and 4 "Veterans", and if this year is an indication, the near future could be pretty bright.

The Rookies combined for 93 Starts with 552 Innings Pitched and a 38-28 Record.  The Veterans only had 69 starts for 390 innings and a 26-29.  That of course includes Chad Bettis who amazingly came back for the last two months of the year, and barring any more setbacks should be stronger next year.

But if I told you in February that the veterans who were expected to make up 80% of the rotation this year would have less than 400 innings pitched this year, you probably would have told me this would be a down season. But the Rookies got their chances and made the best of it, and now the Rockies have 7 experienced starters going into 2018 before the hot stove league heats up. 

The Rockies were exciting, getting off to a 47-26 record in the first 2.5 months, and staying in the thick of a three-way race with the Dodgers and D-Backs.  Then came the 8 game losing streak part of a 5-15 stretch that saw the Rockies fail to win more than one game in a row. while the Dodgers went on a winning run the likes of which haven't been seen in a long time.  By the end of July, the Rockies were 14.5 games behind, but still in contention for the home wild card and comfortably ahead of Milwaukee for the Visitors Wild Card.

In the end, the Rockies finished with an 87-75 record--third best record of all-time behind 2009 and 2007.  They never had a losing record and for the 2nd time had a winning road record.

There's plenty to improve on in 2018, but there is a good core to start with pending the Free Agents, Trades and signings

Free Agents (from 40 Man Roster):

Greg Holland
Carlos Gonzalez
Jonathan Lucroy
Pat Neshek
Jake McGee
Tyler Chatwood
Mark Reynolds
Ryan Hanigan
Alexi Amarista

The Rockies have offered Holland a Qualifying Offer which preserves their rights to a draft pick if Holland is signed by someone else.

The Rockies will likely pursue Lucroy, and a couple of the relievers like Neshek or McGee along with Holland.  It's also likely they will move forward without Reynolds who has made great contributions at first the past couple of years.

All in all the Rockies had a very good year, and will look to make it a great one in 2018.

The Long and Winding Road That Leads To Your Door

Baseball is a long season.  162 games played over 6 months is the longest season in American Pro Sports.  Baseball still has the shortest post season, as the entire playoffs will take place over 29 days in October and possibly November 1st.

Let's admit it--after the first 2.5 months, we didn't think it would come down to the last weekend for the last Wild Card position, if anything we were hoping for a chance to clinch the West Division.  But the past 3.5 months have told a different story.

Going into the weekend, FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Rockies a 94% chance to make the playoffs and Milwaukee only has 6% chance.  But remember 2007 where San Diego went into Milwaukee needing 3 wins and/or Rockies losses to get the Wild Card Spot with 3 games to play.  On Friday, the Padres won while the Rockies lost to the D-Backs ending the 11 game winning streak and putting the Magic Number of 1 which meant they would have to lose 3 in a row including a Tie Breaker game, while the Rockies would have to win all 3 (which meant the Rockies magic number was essentially 6.)

Everything broke the Rockies way in their improbable win to the 2007 World Series, so don't start the celebration yet.  The Rockies also have made the playoffs 3 times as a Wild Card entry and all three times they have clinched the Wild Card on October 1st.  Expect this to go down to Sunday.  In 2018 the season ends on September 30th, but we will deal with that later.

It should be a fun weekend, just like this has been a fun season.

I Gotta Feeling That Tonight's Gonna Be a Good Night

Today is the 10th Anniversary of the start of THE greatest run in Rockies History and one of the greatest runs in MLB history, the 2007 drive to Rocktober.

The Rockies had just returned from a split of a four game series in Philadelphia, and promptly lost the first two games to the Marlins 7-6 and 10-2, and had the 7th best record in the NL at 76-72 4.5 games behind the Padres with 14 regular season games to play.   On Sunday, the Rockies casually won the series finale against the Marlins 13-0 where Todd Helton hit his 300th Home Run, and had Monday off.

On Tuesday, a double header was scheduled with the Dodgers, and Jeff Francis pitched a 3-1 gem during the day game, and the Rockies, while the night cap came down to the 9th inning trailing by a run, facing Dodgers Closer Takashi Saito, who the Rockies were hitless against for the season.   Saito got a ground out and strikeout, and faced Matt Holliday, who singled on the first pitch to Right Field.   Todd Helton came up and on a 1-2 pitch hit home run #301 to Right Center Field to win the game, tossing his helmet as he came home and the run was on.

As the Rockies drive to the playoffs once again, many of the retired 2007 Players returned for a reunion Friday night at Coors Field, to celebrate the improbable finish.

Oh, Yes, They Call Him the Streak

The Indians today set an American League record for consecutive wins with their 21st.
Last night, the Dodgers ended their longest losing streak in Los Angeles at 11.
Tonight, the Rockies go after their season high tying 7th win in a row and thier franchise tying 9th win in a row on the road.

Winning streaks are fun, losing streaks are frustrating.  And streaks don't just end with the one win or loss, you have to sustain it over a period of time.  The Dodgers earlier this season, won 59 of 72 games, the Rockies in 2007 won 20 of 21.  In 2009 they won 17 of 18.  In 2010, they won 10 in a row and 13 of 15 before turning it around and losing 13 of 14 to finish the season.

The point of all this is just to temper the excitement that comes with a winning strreak or keep perspective when your team is losing.  Cleveland has won 20 regular season games which means nothing other than their seeding in the playoffs. The streak will end at some point, will it go straight into a nosedive like the 2010 Rockies, or take them to the World Series like the 2007 Rockies.

DODGERS QUIETLY CLINCH:  The Dodgers have clinched a spot in the playoffs, althourgh many people will tell you that they still have a magic number of 2 ESPN actually has this correct.  The Reason:  The Cardinals need to win all but one of their games to catch the Dodgers and Milwaukee would have to win all of their games plus a tiebreaker game against the Dodgers (and the Dodgers would have to lose all their games.)  The Cubs can win all but 4 to catch the Dodgers if they lost all their games. Problem is the Cubs have 7 games against the Cardinals, and 4 against Milwaukee, while Milwaukee and St. Louis have the final 3 games against each other.  Only one team could possibly win all their games, which would give them the NL Central Division, while the H2H would knock the other two out of reach of the Dodgers.  Therefore the Dodgers have clinched the Visitor's Wild Card.

Oh Baby, Don't Mess With Me

The Rockies could have made it a lot easier on themselves by winning just a few more times in June, July, August, and Early September.  

But they didn't.  So they entered the current 8 game road trip with only a 2 game lead over St. Louis, and 2.5 over Milwaukee for the Visitor Wild Card Spot, and 7.5 games behind the D-Backs for the Home Wild Card Spot.

Realistically, they were looking at falling behind St. Louis or Milwaukee by the end of the trip as they were 1-5 in these two parks in June, and losing 24 of their past 33 on the road (although they had won 3 of their last 4 on the Road Trip.)  The most optimistic person, may have hoped for a 5-3 record, but more realistically it would be 3-5.

Instead the Rockies have put together a 5 game winning streak, and guarnteed that they will head home Friday night with the Visitor Wild Card lead.   They are also now 1.5 games ahead of the NL Central leading Cubs.

Nolan Arenado got annoyed by the fans behind the on-deck circle and transformed it into a 3 run homer in the 8th.

Magic number is now down to 16 over the Cardinals for Visitor Wild Card, 23 for the Home Wild Card.  

Lightning is Striking Again

It hadn't happened in 24 years, but it happened when it needed to:  The Rockies swept a four game series at Dodger Stadium for the 2nd time in their history, and the first time since August 8-11, 1993.
The Rockies used a good mix of starting pitching, timely hitting, and fantastic relief pitching to win the four games, go 6-1 for the week.  By Thursday, the Rockies had stretched their Visitor Wild Card lead back to 3 after Milwaukee closed to 1/2 game last Sunday, but the Cards and Brewers all swept their weekend series, to keep pace with the Rockies.  Meanwhile the D-Backs dropped 2 of 3 to the Padres as the Rockies closed to within 5 games of Arizona as they head to Phoenix for a 4 game series.

The Dodgers have lost 10 in a row, which is the longest losing streak in MLB this season, and ties the longest in their Los Angeles history. It also happened to them in 1961 and 1987.  They have also lost 15 of their last 16. Prior that they lost 15 games out of 74 from May 31st to August  25th.  9 of the last 15 losses have been at home.  They now go on a 10 game road trip to San Francisco, Washington and Philadelphia.  As bad as the Rockies 3-6 homestand last week, the Dodgers went 0-7 on this one.

The good news is the Rockies passed the Central Leading Cubs by a game, which means two of the three Central teams Cubs, Brewers and Cards have to pass them for the Rockies not to make the playoffs, but all three play teams with losing records early in the week, but over the final 17 days of the season, 2 of the 3 Central teams will play each other, meaning there are 14 losses between them.

Here's the remaining schedule (all series 3 games unless noted) Bold Playoff Contenders:

Los Angeles: Home (6)--San Francisco, San Diego; Away(13)--San Francisco, Washington, Philadelphia, Colorado

Arizona:  Home(10)--Colorado (4), Miami, San Francisco; Away(9); San Francisco, San Diego, Kansas City

Colorado: Home(9)--San Diego, Miami, Los Angeles; Away(10):  Arizona (4), San Francisco (2), San Diego (4)

Chicago:  Home (9)--New York Mets, St. Louis, Cincinnati; Away(10) Tampa Bay(2) Milwaukee(4), St. Louis (4)

Milwaukee:  Home (10): Pittsburgh, Chicago (4), Cincinnati; Away (9) Miami, Pittsburgh, St. Louis

St. Louis: Home (10): Cincinnati, Chicago (4), Milwaukee; Away (9)--Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh

The Nearer Your Destination The More You're Slip Slidin' away

The Rockies offensive woes continued despite winning their first game in the last 5 tries with a 4-3 win over the San Francisco Giants.  The hitting drought has reached 6 weeks and 37 games, where the Rockies have gone 15-22 since July 23rd.  

It's September and the stretch drive and while the D-Backs and Brewers (along with the Cubs) have gotten hot over the past two weeks, the Rockies are decidedly not hot.  But they haven't been cold enough (yet) to relinquish the Visitor Wild Card lead.   It was down to 1/2 game over Milwaukee yesterday and increased to 1.5 games today as both the Reds and Rockies got walk off wins.

As the  Rockies approach a key road trip with four games each in LA and Phoenix, the Rockies cannot afford to languish in their hitting doldrums any longer.  They need to find several people to step forward and lead the scoring effort, as the pitching continues to do well.

Meanwhile the Dodgers have been in their first prolonged funk of the year.   After losing 3 in a row and 5 of 7 back in early June, the Dodgers ran off winning streaks of 6, 10, 11, 9, and 6, en route to an amazing 56-11 run and taking them to a 91-36 overall record.  Over the past 10 games however they have now lost 9 of 10 and had their first 5 game losing streak and swept in a series for the first time.

Just When I Thought Our Chance Had Passed

The Rockies have been on a extended downer for the better part of the past ten weeks compiling a 24-31 record after reaching a high water mark of 47-26 on June 20th.    The Dodgers ridiculous run during that period winning over 80% of their games has exacerbated the effect of the Rockies swoon.  
But the month of August and really, the past 5 weeks have shown how frustrating the season has been.  On Sunday, July 23rd the Rockies had worked themselves up to 58-43 after a 5-1 homestand.  At this point since June 20th the Rockies were 11-17.   A drop off for sure, but the Rockies still had a 4.5 game lead over the Brewers for the Road Wild Card position and a game ahead of the D-Backs for the Home Wild Card position.  

In the 30 games since then, the Rockies have had a 13-17 Record including 6-11 on the road.   More concerning is that the Rockies have only scored more than 5 runs 5 times in those 30 games.  They have scored 5 runs four times and 4 runs five times which leave 16 games where they did not score more than 3 times going 4-12 in those games.

By contrast, the first 30 games of the season, the Rockies score 6 or more runs 8 times, 5 runs twice and 4 runs three times, which left them with 17 games where they scored three runs or less.  They were 6-11 in those games and 18-12 overall.  

The Rockies pitching also held the opponent to 5 or fewer runs in 20 of those first 30 games, going 16-4.  In the last 30 games the Rockies Pitchers have held the opponent to 5 runs in 21 games, but the Rockies have only won 12 of those games.

Thirteen of those early games had Rockies Saves, only 7 of the last 30 have had saves.  

The Rockies are coming up on the final 32 games, 18 at home and 14 away, 26 will be against the NL West.    It is imperative that they win close to 90 games, which means they have to go 19-13 in the remaining games.  This will require them to win on the road, something they haven't done very well since early June.

Every Now and Then I Fall Apart

First of all--it's been two weeks since my last post and a lot has happened that I'd like to comment on:

RIP Don Baylor:  Don Baylor, the Rockies first Manager died on August 7th at the age of 68.  There have been many nice accolades given him, but from my standpoint, the fact that he took an expansion team to the playoffs in it's third year, is one of his biggest accomplishments.  The Arizona Diamondbacks became the first expansion team to win the World Series in it's fourth year, 2001. (Florida Marlins did it in their fifth year in 1997.), but Baylor made the Rockies pretty successful right off the bat:

Here are the Records for expansion teams first year.

1961 Los Angeles Angels, Bill Rigney, 70-91
1969 Kansas City Royals, Joe Gordon 69-93
1993 Colorado Rockies, Don Baylor, 67-95
1998 Arizona Diamond Backs, Buck Showalter, 65-97
1962 Houston Colt .45's, Harry Craft 64-96
1969 Seattle Pilots, Joe Schultz, 64-98
1993 Florida Marlins, Rene Lachemann, 64-98
1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Larry Rothschild, 63-99
1961 Washington Senators, Mickey Vernaon, 61-100

1969 Montreal Expos, Gene Mauch, 52-110
1969 San Diego Padres, Preston Gomez, 52-110
1962 New York Mets, Casey Stengel, 40-120

Baylor had the 3rd best successful start of an expansion team in it's first year, and in 6 years had 3 winning records and finished with a respectable 440-469 .484 Winning percentage.  

Chad Bettis:  The return of Chad Bettis on Monday night, along with the Baylor tribute, was one of the more emotional nights in Rockies history.  Chad pitched 7 shutout innings, but missed getting a win as the Rockies would not score until the bottom of the eighth.  Bettis goes again tonight vs. the Brewers.

Pitching Setup: Bettis' return gave the Rockies seven starters with Tyler Anderson still on the DL.  The Rockies opted to put Chatwood and Senzatella in the bullpen for the time being and sent Hoffmann down to the minors probably until September 1st.   I expect depending on how the race goes, all eight starters will get starts in September, as the Rockies set up their potential postseason roster and rotation.   As of this moment, I would include Bettis, Gray, and Marquez for sure, with Freeland, Senzatela and Hoffman mixed in.   I like Chatwood in the bullpen for long relief or even as a late inning setup guy.  

Wild Card Race:  After the two remaining games with Milwaukee, the Rockies have only the 7 games against the D-Backs and potentially the 3 games at home against the Marlins with direct games against wild card contenders.   They also have seven games against the ridiculous LA Dodgers and three against the Royals next week who are in the AL Playoff hunt.  The other 22 games are against also rans.   The D-Backs are playing Minnesota this weekend and finish with 3 games in KC, and have the Rockies for 7 and Dodgers for 6, and Miami for 3 for 21 total contender games. 

The NL Central has four contenders for both the Central Title and Wild Card opportunities, although the Pirates may fall out of both soon.  Altogether the four teams have 40 games against each other.

ChC(21)--Pit(7), Mil(7), STL(7)

STL(20)-ChC(7), Pit(8), Mil(5)

Mil(18)-Chc(7), STL(5), Pit(6)

Pit(21)--Chc(7), STL(8), Mil(6)

In Addition, Milwaukee 12 games left against NL Playoff teams Colorado(2), LA(3), Washington (4), and Miami(3)

Pittsburgh has 8 games left LA(4), Washington (4)

Cubs and St. Louis have none outside the division left with contenders. 

I include the Cubs in the analysis, because the Central Race is close. 

The Wild Card Standings look like this at the moment:

Team             W    L   GB(H)   GB(A)   GB(NLC)

Rockies         68-54        --          +1           N/A

D-Backs        67-55         1         --             N/A

Cubs              64-57         3.5      2.5           --

Cards             63-59         5         4              1.5

Brewers         63-60         5.5      4.5           2

Marlins         59-61          8         7              N/A

Pirates           58-64        10         9              6.5

What this all means is that of the 5 teams that are behind the Rockies and D-Backs three would have to actually pass them to knock them both out of the Wild Card positions. The Marlins have 6 games left to cut the lead of either team, and Milwaukee has 2 left against the Rockies.  The 4 NL Central teams will have 40 losses among them between now and October 1st.

So from this standpoint, either the Rockies or D-Backs are probably safely in the Wild Card, not both yet, but stay tuned.  

We Pillage We Plunder, We Rifle We Loot

The Rockies were handed a win today, after they gave one to the Mets last night. It's gonna happen. Last night the Rockies blew a 5 run lead for the third time this season, but only the first time at home.  The other two came in Cincinnati and Los Angeles.   Today, the Rockies scored without a hit, gettin a Hit By Pitch, Intentional Walk and two straight unintentional walk to get their 2nd Walk Off win in 3 games and 4th of the season.  In 3 of the four walkoffs, Nolan Arenado hit the winning run in.  The fourth (which was the first of the year) was a single by Raimel Tapia.

Looking at the Wild Card Race, the conventional wisdom is that the Brewers are the team the Rockies and D-Backs have to watch out for.  I think it's the Pirates based on Home Road Factor.  The Brewers have played 58 home games to 52 Road games, leaving them 23-29 in their remaining games.  They already are -1 in the Home/Road factor.    Beginning August 18th when they come to Colorado, they will play 21 of 30 on the road.

Meanwhile the Pirates are more balanced having played 53 home and 55 road games.  They are also -1 in the Home/Road Factor, but seem to have a more favorable schedule.  We'll look at remaining games in early September as the stretch drive comes into play.

Even Steven

The Rockies hit the Century Mark in games played today, and have now played 50 at home (31-19) and 50 on the Road  (27-23).   This compares to the Dodgers who will hit the Century Mark on Monday, with 55 Home games and 45 Road Games,  and the D-Backs on Tuesday will be 53-47 in Home and Away games.  The Dodgers however have a better record on the road than either of the other two teams at 27-18, but the Rockies at one point were  24-10 before their 3-13 slide on the Road.

The Rockies will also be on the road this week while the Dodgers remain at home.  The D-Backs play three at home and then follow the Rockies into St. Louis next weekend embarking on a 10-game road trip.  The Dodgers will hit 60 home games next Sunday before playing an August Schedule of 19 Road and 8 home games including two trips into the Snake Pit in Phoenix. From Aug 1 to Sep 3 the Dodgers play 22 of 30 on the road, at which point they will also be Even Steven at 68-68.   Everyone will be even after 162 games ;-)

WILD CARD ADVANTAGE:  The 7 teams currently in the Wild Card race with the Rockies all lost today.  (The Cubs moved into a percentage point lead over the Brewers, and are now the Division Leader.)  The Rockies are now in the Home Wild Card position, 1 game ahead of the D-Backs, with Milwaukee now 5.5 behind the Rockies (4.5 out of Wild Card).  Everyone else is at least 8 in back of the Rockies.

FLOODGATES:  The Rockies drew over 40,000 fans to each of the three Pirate games and 4 of the 6  games on the Homestand.  In 6 games they drew 244,335 and after 50 dates have drawn 1,878,586 averaging 37,572.  At this pace they will draw over  3,000,000 for the first time since 2001.

How Do You Like Me Now?!

Baseball is a cyclical game.  It can have it's ups and downs.  If you break the season out into 16 game stretches, (and 17 leading into the halfway point), the Rockies hit the 60% mark yesterday.

It's interesting to see the results

Decile	Wins	Losses	Runs	Opp Runs	Run Diff
1st	10	6	54	62	-8
2nd	10	6	98	83	15
3rd	11	5	96	68	28
4th	10	6	89	52	37
5th*	6	11	73	111	-38
6th	9	7	105	86	19
Total	56	41	515	462	53

As you can see other than the 5th Decile, the Rockies have consistently won about 10 out of 16 games in each 16 game stretch.   In the first 16 games they were struggling on offense, and the pitching carried them.  The run production was fairly consistent in the 2nd-4th, and 6th deciles, although in the 6th, they scored nearly half their runs in the past 4 games.   However, pitching side has been all over the place with a low of 52 and a high of 111.

If they remain on the 10-6 pace the rest of the way, they will finish at 96-66.   It's a respectable pace and  should get them in the Wild Card Game.

TRADE DEADLINE:  The trade deadline approaches and as teams make moves, the focus is on the Rockies lack of moves.   I'm fine with that.  I'm not saying the Rockies could win the World Series with what they have, but they certainly don't want to trade a lot of prospects to get past the Wild Card Game with no guarantee against likely the Dodgers in a five game series. \

But let's look at some reality, the Rockies have 6 certain free agents not including Greg Holland who could exercise his 15 million option for 2018, and the Rockies are not likely to trade him during the stretch drive. 

Carlos Gonzalez

Jake McGee

Tyler Chatwood

Jordan Lyles

Mark Reynolds

Ryan Hanigan

McGee has been solid in the Bullpen, as a 7th or 8th inning setup man for Holland. Hanigan has been a steady influence on the young pitching staff and pairs well with Tony Wolters.  Tyler Chatwood is currently on the DL and will probably be so through the trade deadline, and is the most veteran pitcher on the starting staff in terms of games started. 

This leaves Cargo, Reynolds and Lyles.  CarGo is showing signs of breaking out of his slump and could go on another tear down the stretch.  Is that more valuable to the Rockies or some other team?  It's clear that CarGo may be finished in Colorado after this season, as the abundance of outfielders, even with Desmond actually moving to first base next year, makes him expendable.  That's part of baseball. 

Reynolds has been a spark at 1st Base, and could be expendable, while Lyles probably has little value to a buyer and not much to a seller.  

Trading any of those players is unlikely for good value.  I'm not sure you mess with any of the starting hitters or starting pitchers.   So can you trade relief pitching for relief pitching?  Unlikely.

This leaves prospects, and I'm not inclined to give away prospects for a short term fix.  Unless there is a prospect that has interest from other teams and the Rockies have depth in the position, I would say to let it ride, and use the excess starters as relievers like Senzatela, Hoffman or Marquez.

OUT OF THE WEST:   The Rockies completed their second round of play against the NL West and are now at 29-21 in Division Play.  They play their next game in the West on September 1st when they host the D-Backs, and play all but  3 of the final 29 games in the West.  Meanwhile they play 9 against the NL Central (6 home), 8 against the AL Central (3 Home), and 19 against the NL East (10 Home) prior to September 1st.   

Turn Around, Bright Eyes

The Rockies have been spiraling downward for about a month now, and last night for the first time since June 20th, recorded a win after a win.  The naysayers are talking about them falling out of the postseason, and it's still possible they could drop from the Wild Card altogether.

However there is a lot of baseball yet to be played.  The Cubs have won 4 straight games since the All-Star Break and have now closed to within 5.5 games of the Rockies, but are only 3.5 games behind the Division leader Brewers. They meet head to head next weekend.

It's easy to scoreboard watch, and panic, but the reality is the Rockies have to go out and win their game and then worry about the others.  Over the month long stretch (and I still maintain the slump goes back to late May, when there were signs of a slump but they managed to win after a couple of 3 game losing streaks,) the Rockies have done some irritating things that have led to their losses.

Pitching--Everyone talks about the walks, but the bigger problem is lack of clean innings where nobody gets on base.  There always seems to be traffic every inning which leads to stress pitching.   Even in their last two wins, there have been only 4 clean innings, while another inning only had 3 batters and included a Double play after a hit by pitch.   The Walks need to be cut down as well.

Hitting--Strikeouts need to be cut down severely The Rockies have struck out about 1 in 4 at bats, which is nearly 9 times a game.  Not putting the ball in play is one of the biggest reasons to not score.  Making contact has to be a big emphasis for the rest of the season.

Fielding--In the first 73 games, the Rockies committed errors in only 20 of them.  In the past 22 games they have committed an error in 11 of them going 3-8 in those games.

Let's Tell the Future Let's See How It's Been Done.

While we are in a lull period between the first and second halves, let's take a look at the reality of the season.

Had I told you on April 1st that the Rockies would be 52-39 at the All-Star Break, you would have been elated.  Had I also told you they would be third place in the NL West, you might have been a little disappointed, but if I also told you they were firmly in the 2nd Wild Card spot by 7.5 games, you would be pricing playoff tickets (maybe).

Although the Rockies have had a great first half, the Rockies are not in as favorable position with the prediction sites, notably Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight.com.  Much of this as far as I can tell is related to past performance, and run differential.  The Rockies are currently +42 in run differential.  The D-Backs are +102, but that has only gained them 1 more win than the Rockies (although they have played 2 fewer games.)  The Dodgers are +163 and have 8 more wins than the D-Backs.

The Rockies also have five off-days in the next month and 7 prior to September 1st when they go head to head agains the NL West.  They will also be able to bring up additional players to help out with the bullpen on September 1st.  They play consecutive games 6, 6, 3, 6, 2, 10, and 9.

TRADE DEADLINE:  The next two weeks will have lots of talk about the trade deadline, and this year the Rockies will clearly be buyers, if they trade at all.   I expect that there will be a lot of talk about the top prospects including infielders Brendan Rogers and Ryan McMahon, who were recently showcased in the Futures Game.   The Rockies would be smart to hold onto the young pitching at least until the best contenders from the young guys emerge.  Tyler Chatwood is a free agent after this year, so if anyone is expendable, he could be.

COMEBACKS:  A lot of the "experts" are pretty much giving the NL West Title to the Dodgers, and it's a high percentage chance of it happening, but remember this, the Rockies fell a net of 10 games in 17 games, because it was so awful of a stretch for them while the Dodgers had a ridiculously hot at the same time.  They also played three head to head games with the Dodgers and lost all 3.  Over the course of 70+ games, the Rockies or the D-Backs could chip away at that  lead, if the Dodgers falter at all over an extended stretch.

Don't believe me, let's look at some history:

2007--On, July 1, following a 1-9 road trip and the Rockies were in 4th place, 8 games behind the then first-place Bud Black led San Diego Padres.  There were also 5 teams ahead of them for the single Wild Card spot, where the Rockies were 7 games behind the Dodgers.  A week later the Padres lead was closed to 5.5 games, and by August 3, they were 3.5 games behind 1st Place Arizona and 2 behind the Padres.  By August 23rd, they had fallen to 7.5 games behind Arizona and 4 behind the Wild Card Padres.  On September 10, they were 7 games behind Arizona and 3.5 behind the Padres.  From August 23 on they went 26-10 including winning 14 of the last 15 ball games.

  2009--On June 3rd, the Rockies stood in 5th place at 20-32, 15.5 games behind the Dodgers, and 9.5 games behind the Wild Card Cardinals.  By the All-Star Break about a month later, they had closed the Dodgers lead to 9, and were 2 games out of the Wild Card, now owned by the Giants.  The Rockies would go 45-29 the rest of the way, and finish only 3 games behind the Dodgers and winning the Wild Card, by 4 games over the Giants.

Other teams:
The 2009 Minnesota twins went from 7 games down with 26 games to play to tie the Tigers and then win a Tiebreaker game.

The 2007 Phillies were 7 games out with 17 to play after losing two games at home to the Rockies. Their 13-4 finish gave them the NL East title by 1 game.

The 1995 Seattle Mariners were 12.5 games out on August 15th and had a one game playoff with the Angels to win the AL West Title.  (1995 was a strike shortened season)

The point is, don't give up yet.

Hey Now You're an All-Star

Tonight is the 88th All-Star Game and for the first time since 2002 it doesn't count.   Since the tie in 2002 which led to the designation of the All-Star game as determining which league gets Home Field Advantage in the World Series.  This designation has gone to the American League 11 of the 14 times the game "counted" and 22 of the last 29 (with one tie), but the NL leads the Series 43-42-2, because of domination in the 50's to early 80's.

In reality, the All-Star Game only "counted" three times, when the series went seven games in 2011, 2014 and 2016, however the team with the advantage won only one of those games--the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

So the All-Star game has returned to a pure exhibition, showcasing the best players in the sport.  Baseball has always lent itself to having a real All-Star Game because it's not necessary to play together for a long time to have an effectively good game.  NHL, NBA, and NFL "All-Star" games just seem to be a different game altogether.

The Rockies for the first time are sending four players, two starters,  OF Charlie Blackmon and 3b Nolan Arenado, as well as 2b D.J. LeMahieu and Closer Greg Holland.  Blackmon also appeared in the Home Run Derby, losing to Cody Bellinger in the first round.

Personally, I have attended two All-Star Games, 1976 at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia and, 1998 at Coors Field.   It's a special experience.  Enjoy the return to the showcase, and may the Rockies do well.

 

I'm Walking on Sunshine (and Don't it Feel Good!)

So far this season there have been 14 weeks of the season, in 12 of those 14 weeks, the Rockies are 50-29.  In the other two, the Rockies are 2-10.

Even this past week the Rockies went 4-3 at home, but finished on such a high note as Denver Native and one of four Rockies Rookies Pitchers Kyle Freeland stood on the hill at Coors field in the 9th inning doing something that no other Rockies pitcher has EVER done, and something only one other pitcher period has done, and that is to take a no-hitter into the 9th inning.  Melky Cabrera hit a ball over Nolan Arenado's head with one out in the 9th to break it up, but the Rockies finished with their 3rd 1 hitter in their history to go along with Ubaldo Jimenez' No-Hitter in Atlanta in 2010.   Tyler Chatwood and Gonzalez Germen combined on a one-hitter in June, 2016 at Dodger Stadium.  Jason Jennings, Tom Martin and Brian Fuentes combined on the only other Rockies one-hitter at Coors Field in June, 2006.   Freeland also had a career high 9 strikeouts, while walking 3 and hitting Jose Abreu.

On the other side of the ball, the offense for the second time this weekend scored double digit runs, and Pat Valaika knocked in 5 runs.  Freeland even got into the mix by getting an RBI single to cap the scoring in the 7th inning.

After the dismal three weeks leading up to this game, the euphoria of this win could propel the Rockies into the 2nd half of the season starting Friday in New York.

BEST FIRST HALF EVER:   The Rockies head into the All-Star Break with their best record ever at 52-39.  In 2010, at the break 49-39, which was 2nd best.

STILL ON PACE FOR POSTSEASON:  The Rockies go into the break with the 5th best record in MLB, but the 3rd best in the NL West.  Although the Rockies are 9.5 games behind the Red-Hot Dodgers, the Rockies only trail the D-Backs for the Host Wild Card by 2 games and are ahead of the Cubs and Cardinals for the Visiting Wild Card team by 7.5 games.  Contrast this to the AL where 4 games over .500 will get you into the Wild Card game, but 10 other teams are within 7.5 games of the Wild Card slots.  (That's everyone in the league who's not winning their divison at the moment, folks).

OVERABUNDANCE OF PITCHING:  It seems like a strange thing to say, but with Chad Bettis starting rehab in Hartford this week, and Tyler Anderson returning sometime in August, the Rockies will soon have 8 starting pitchers not counting Chris Rusin and Jordan Lyles who are converted starters in the bullpen.  With everyone but Chatwood and Bettis having options, it will be interesting to see what five settle in for the home stretch rotation.  It's clear all 8 will be on the roster in September, as part of this team barring any injuries.

INJURIES:  All teams have injuries, so it's no excuse, but it seems like the injury that hurt the Rockies the most was Gerardo Parra.  He went on the DL on June 7, but the fact that he could not make it back until this past Friday hurt a lot more when Carlos Gonzalez who hasn't been hitting, went out on June 21st and missed the entire 9 game road trip.   Raimel Tapia has been great at the bat and on base, but sometimes was an adventure in the outfield.

SECOND HALF SCHEDULE:  Rockies Home/Road split in the 2nd half is 36-35 in the 2nd half, while the Dodgers have 31-41 and D-Backs have 33-40    Starting in August, the Dodgers play 36 of their final 57 games on the road, including two road trips to three cities, both including East Coast and West Coast Teams.  Incidentally, the Dodgers have not been on an airplane since Father's Day, when they flew back from Cincinnati.  Their only five home games since then have been to Anaheim and San Diego on buses.  Not surprising they've continued to stay hot.  They are in the middle of  streak where they are playing 41 of 64 at home.   That's half their home schedule in that span vs. a little over a quarter of their road schedule.

I'm on my way Home Sweet home

On Monday, May 15th the Rockies were 24-15 and embarking on a string of 45 games where 31 were on the road.  They held their own going 24-21, but as we all know it could have been better.  they started out 23-11 before losing 10 of their last 11.

The problem is that the Dodgers went 33-13 and D-Backs 31-13 (Both over .700) during this stretch. The Dodgers had 25 home games to 21 Road Games and now have 44-40.  D-Backs have 45-38 advantage in Home games, Rockies are 37-47 for Home games.   It doesn't help that the Dodgers and D-Backs are winning 3 out of 4 at home, while the Rockies are only winning 3 out of 5.

The Dodgers continue to have a favorable schedule in July with only 7 road games (5 left after playing San Diego this weekend.)  So at the end of July, the Dodgers will have played 60 at home and 45 on the Road, This means the Dodgers play 36 of their final 57 on the road.  The D-Backs have a more balanced schedule in July, with 11 home games and 12 Road.

The Rockies meanwhile come home and play 13 of the next 16 at home, However for July in total they play 11 on the Road.

The Rockies showed signs of coming out of their two week funk this weekend.  Chatwood and Marquez pitched well enough to win, but errors did them in for the most part.  The bats still need to get hot, and maybe being home will help with that.

Although the Rockies are still 6 games ahead of the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card Spot, the goal is still to win the NL West.  If they played in any other division, they would be winning 3 of them and tied for a fourth, but they are in the NL West and have to start winning again and not worry so much about the Dodgers or D-Backs until September 1st when they play each other again.  The Rockies have an opportunity to gain on LA and Arizona as they play each other in a 3 game set starting Tuesday.  They will play again in Arizona August 8-10 and 29-31, prior to the Rockies meeting either of them again.  The D-Backs finish play against LA and Colorado on September 14th, while the Rockies and Dodgers will finish out the season at Coors on Sept 29-Oct 1.

WINNERS AND LOSERS:   Determining Winning and Losing teams is fluid, but the Rockies start a stretch where they play 19 straight against currently losing teams.  The Rockies are 24-20 against teams that are .500 or better, and 24-13 against teams that are below .500.  Of their remaining games 53 are against losing teams and 25 against winning teams.   If you include teams that are withing 4 games of .500 as Winners, the Rockies are 27-24 vs. Winners, 21-12 vs. Losers and 42-35 Remaining (Losers/Winners).

Who Knows What Miracles You Can Achieve When You Believe,

On May 16th, the Rockies started a stretch of 31 out of 45 games on the road over a seven week period.  Well it's five weeks and 33 games later and the Rockies have compiled a 22-11 record which is good enough for third place in the West over that stretch.  The D-Backs have gone 23-8, while the Dodgers have gone 22-10.  That's a combined record of 67-29.  But the Rockies remain in 1st Place in the West.   And there will be at least 6 losses between the three teams this week as the Rockies host Arizona before going to Los Angeles for 3 games each.

All three teams have been finding ways to win.  The Rockies blew two leads over the weekend but managed to sweep the Giants and give them a Winning Record for the season vs. San Francisco at 10-1 with 8 games left.  They have also won 12 of the last 15.

The Dodgers played 6 games against the Reds over the past 10 days and swept all 6 while winning 9 of their last 10, and 11 of their last 15.  Meanwhile the D-Backs have won the past 7 in a row and 13 of the last 17.

Oddly, all three teams have had a 3 game losing streak in June.  None have lost four in a row this season.  Can all three teams get 100 wins?  All three teams are on pace to hit the century in Wins.      
But how about these Rockies?  Down by two runs in the bottom of the 9th, and one out, Tapia, Blackmon, and LeMahieu get consecutive singles, prior to Arenado hitting a three run  homer that completes the cycle and wins the game for the Rockies.

With a day off Monday, hopefully the Bullpen gets some needed rest and comes back rejuvenated to play the D-Backs.

The Rockies are 20 games over .500 for the first time ever prior to September.  Although they only have a 1 game lead over their closest two West Competitors, they currently lead the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card position by 10 games.

Heating Up the Home Cooking:  The Rockies have won all six of their June Home games and are now 21-13 at home, after starting out 15-13.  Their Road record is a franchise best 25-13, which is the most road wins in baseball.  Houston has a better road record at 23-8.  Arizona (26-9) and the New York Yankees (22-9) are the only teams who haven't lost 10 games at home yet.

Take Me Out to the Ballgame:  The Rockies had two more sellouts at Coors Field this weekend, bringing their total to 5 this season.  They are 4-1 in sellout games.  There are an additional 8 games that the Rockies have drawn 40,000+ and are 5-3 in those games.  With a 6-1 record in games where 35,000-40,000 show up, the Rockies are 15-5 in games where 35,000 or more show up. Conversely on the Road with 35,000+ fans the Rockies are 7-3, so they are 22-8 in front of 35,000 or more fans 24-18 with lesser crowds.  Their next 9 games should be in front of 35,000 or more.

Don't Be Afraid of What You'll Find On The Way

Last night's game can't pass without a comment.

First of all, Greg Holland is human after all.  After 23 straight saves in save situations, he blew one.

Second of all, blowing an 8 run lead is nothing new either in Denver or any other place. Here is a rundown of some of them.  And for the record none of them involve the Rockies at home or away.

So it happens.  As Bud Black said last night, it wasn't so much the venue as the pitch locations.

So let's be realistic.  It's strange to say, but the Rockies are in a slump.  That seems strange to say when they have won 9 of the last 12, but you don't have to be in a long losing streak to be in a slump, and really it's good to continue winning while you are in a slump. Since May 24, the Rockies are 12-9, and have had two 3 game losing streaks.

Carlos Gonzalez is batting .091 over this stretch (5 for 55) with only 1 home run.   Trevor Story still hasn't gotten untracked although he has hit .250 over the past 3 weeks.  Gerardo Parra is on the DL after batting .577.  German Marquez has had a couple of so-so starts although the Rockies have pulled both of them out.  Ottavino, Dunn and Holland have been less effective in the bullpen lately.  There seems to be more frequent errors and a lot more walks.

The bottom line is that you don't have to lose 15 of 20 to be in a slump.  To win 12 out of 20 despite  the slump is actually good news.  When CarGo starts hitting and someone else slumps, that's actually a good thing. For the most part this year, the Rockies Hitting has picked up the pitching and the hittting and fielding has picked up the pitching at other times.

Despite the loss of an 8 run lead in the last three innings, it paved the way for Raimel Tapia to get his first walk-off hit of his career (and the Rockies 1st Walk-off win of the season).   The Rockies bend but don't break, and seemingly have a different hero every night.

The Rockies remain undefeated at 41-0 when leading after 7 innings.  And they are now 10-2 in one-run games.  It's their first one-run win since May 4, at San Diego (40 games ago).



 

Please Somebody Make a Move

It's June 15th and the top 3 in the National League West, Dodgers, Rockies and D-Backs are all above .600 for the season in Winning Percentage, and in games not against each other, they are a combined 102-55 for a .650 percentage.   There are only three other teams total in the rest of the Major Leagues, Astros, Yankees and Nationals who are at .600 or better.

The three teams together have a 16-5 (.762) record against the AL, 37-19 (.661) vs. the NL Central and a 33-19 (.635) vs. San Diego and San Francisco.  They are "struggling" against the NL East however at 16-12 (.571).  Actually the Rockies and D-Backs are at .500 and the Dodgers are 7-3 vs. the East.

Starting tonight the Rockies now will play a string of 16 games against the NL West including 9 combined against the Dodgers and D-Backs over the next 2.5 weeks.  This is the last chance the Rockies have to play these two directly prior to September, when they will play their remaining 13 games against these two.  Between July 4 and August 31st the Dodgers and D-Backs play each other 9 times, so these games take on added significance.  The Rockies play 26 of their final 29 games of the season vs. the West, (3 games at home vs. Miami are the others).   The Dodgers have a 7 game road trip in September to the East Coast outside the division and the D-Backs finish the season in Kansas City after a 3 game home series vs. Miami.

The Rockies currently are 20-11 vs. the NL West and 9-6 vs. the Dodgers ( 5-4) and the D-Backs (4-2)  The D-Backs have a 4-3 edge on the Dodgers and are 19-14 vs. the entire west, while the Dodgers are 16-16 vs. the West.

The other games before then will be important, but right now the Rockies have the chance to put some separation between them and the others--or fall behind.

  

You Can Walk Straight Through Hell with a Smile

Beginning May 15th the Rockies have been on a grueling part of their season.  45 games in 49 days with 31 of the games on the road and only 14 at  home.  Going into last week the Rockies had gone 12-8 during this stretch which was pretty good, but six games against last year's World Series Participants Cleveland and Chicago Cubs back to back loomed large and potentially could have been a large pothole especially with the Dodgers and D-Backs breathing down the Rockies neck.  The Rockies won the first 5 games, dropping yesterday's season finale vs. the Cubs ending their season high 7 game winning streak.  They now have 41 wins in their first 65 games,

The 7 game winning streak is the longest since an 8 game streak in April 2013.  After Saturday's win, they were 18 games or more over .500 for only the 2nd time in their history.   Their best record ever was at 24 games over .500 in 2009 at 92-68.  This year's Rockies could surpass that by the All-Star Break.

During the seven game streak they held their opponent to 3 or fewer runs in all 7 games.  They are now 15-3-3 in series and have yet to lose a road series.  They are 15-6 in series opening games, which contributes to that success.

And most importantly they are now 17-9 in this 45 game stretch with 19 games to go.

Fool, If You Think It's Over

The Rockies have played 59 Games So far, and have not lost a game where they were leading after 7 innings (34-0).   They also have only won 1 game where they were trailing after 7 (1-21).  In the three games that they were tied after 7 they are 1-2.

In other words there have been only 4 games that were decided in the 8th inning or later and 3 of those games have gone extra innings.  If you turn the game off after 7 and one team is ahead, it's pretty certain that the result will be the same as when  you stopped watching.  In fact, the Rockies are 9-6 in come from behind wins, so if there is a lead of any kind at any time, it's a 3 in 4 chance that the team ahead will win. The Rockies still are looking for their first walk off win of 2017.

Meanwhile the Dodgers have 16 comeback wins and the D-Backs have 19.   The Dodgers are 3-2 in Walkoffs and the D-Backs are 3-1.

This does not mean this will continue, it's really a glass half full or half empty kind of thing.  The Rockies have chalked up 36 wins so far, which is the best in their history.   How they do it doesn't matter, but there will come a time when they pull out games in the last at bat or even lose some late.

The NL West race is one of the tightest in Baseball, with the NL Central also having three teams within 2 games of each other for the lead, but those teams are hovering around .500 while the NL West teams are hovering around .600.   The Rockies have a chance to put some separation (hopefully positive) between the teams when they play 16 in a row against the west later this month including 3 against the Dodgers and 6 against the D-Backs.  Otherwise the Dodgers spend the entire month of June and July, playing the other divisions, including their first taste of interleague play, except for 6 games June 30-July 6th against San Diego and Arizona, and a 3 game series vs. the Giants to end July.   The D-Backs will play San Diego this week and the Dodgers Series in early July.

As Bud Black says, the Rockies can't worry about what the other teams are doing, all they can do is take care of their own business.   Currently the Rockies by far have a great record against the West at 19-11, while the D-Backs are 16-14 and the Dodgers are 16-16.  The D-Backs and Dodgers are beating up teams outside the division, but ultimately it will come down to the Division head to head games that will separate if not decide the division.

ROAD WARRIORS: The Rockies are not a team that historically has had success on the road.  In fact the only time the Rockies have had a winning road record is in 2009 when they went 41-40.  The Rockies have currently won 21 or their first 31 on the road, and have yet to lose a series on the road.

Here is the compilation:

Milwaukee 3-1
San Francisco 3-1
Los Angeles 1-1
Arizona 2-1
San Diego 2-1
Minnesota 2-1
Cincinnati 2-1
Philadelphia 3-1
Seattle 1-1
San Diego 2-1

Giving them a total of 8-0-2 in Series Victories. Impressive Road start for sure.
  

Don't say it ain't so, you know the time is now

We are at Memorial Day, just about a third of the way through the season, (despite MLB Network insisting it's the Quarter Pole.)  The Rockies will complete their first third of the season tomorrow before heading out on a five game road trip.

1997 and 2000 were the only years they had 30 wins in the first 54 games.  This year they are at 33 and there have been many accomplishments especially in the pitching category.  With a 7 man starting pitching staff with only 174 games experience, 97 of them by Tyler Chatwood alone, the Rockies have defied expectations with their 25-16 record.  More importantly combined they have pitched  301 innings averaging just under 6 innings per start.  They have worked at least 6 innings 27 times, while not finishing five innings only 7 times including Jon Gray's 3 inning start where he was injured.

Combine that with the Relievers who have only lost one game after leading after 6 (Thursday losing in Extra innings against the Phillies) and none when leading after 7 or 8 innings, the Rockies currently have a franchise best 4.04 ERA one-third in.  They have only blown one game with a lead of 5 or more runs, and have only lost 5 games after having any lead.

They also have yet to lose a road series, having split one and winning seven.  At home they have lost 2 series splitting one and winning five.  Not sure whether the upcoming series with Seattle is two 2 game series or one 4 game series, but it would be good to take 3 out of 4 against this decimated team.
The defense has been superb having 36 games without and error, and only 16 with at least one error.  They have 22 errors total, fewest in the National League and third overall in the Majors.

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

I'm never going to complain about a 7-3 road trip.  The longest trip of the year started with the Rockies holding a 1.5 game lead over the Dodgers and they return with a 1 game lead over Arizona who went 9-1 during the same stretch, while LA was 6-4.  Arizona had 6 games at home and LA 7.   The D-Backs started an 11 game road trip last night, while the Dodgers start a 7-gamer on Monday.  Both teams however are two games under on the road while the Rockies have an 18-8 record.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockies lose the NL West lead over the next 5 weeks, but the key is to worry about your games, and let the other teams worry about theirs--and stay close. The NL West seems to be the strongest division so far, with the top three teams having the 1st, 2nd, and 4th best records in the National League.  And the national press seems to think both the Rockies and D-Backs will fall soon.

This is why I look at the Home/Road Factor as a guage of where the teams stand.  The Rockies have played fewer games at home and have a +8 factor at the moment, while the D-Backs are only +1, and Dodgers are +2.  Keep in mind that a +9 will project you to a 90 win season, which will usually get you to the playoffs. This means that the Rockies have to win only one game more than they have home games to get to the playoffs, while the D-Backs and Dodgers will have to win 8 or 7 respectively, and they have fewer home games to play.

If the Rockies can improve their record at home (although they only have 7 home games in the next three weeks and 14 in the next 5.5 weeks through July 2nd) they can make their Road Record more reasonable.  So in their next 35 games they need 14 wins to stay on target. Any better than that and they will stretch their Home/Road Factor Further.  And oh, yeah 9 of the last 12 games of that stretch are against the Dodgers and D-Backs, so they have a chance to help themselves in head to head matches.   The great start has helped them take some of the pressure off, unlike 2009, when they started off 20-32 and had to go 70-40 the rest of the way to get to 90 (and they won 92).

Even if you look at where they are now at 31-18 overall, playing .500 ball the rest of the way would put them at an 87-88 win range.   They will have their down periods, but as long as they don't go into too deep of a hole, they have given themselves some cushion in getting back out.

Scheduling Quirks:  Teams now have seven four game series outside of their division including one that is a home and home series against the other league.  The Rockies have already played three at Milwaukee and Philadelphia and home against Washington.  They will play their AL Home/Home series next week, leaving them only three more four gamers against the East and Central, and two of those (at Chicago and vs. Cincinnati) happen before the All Star game.  That leaves the Braves at Coors in August as their lone 4 gamer after the break.  In the West they usually have one 4 game series against each team, but this year, they have 2 against the Dodgers and Giants (along with two 2 game series  for some reason.)  Three of those will happen in September, all on the road.

Blowin' In the Wind

It was inevitable that the Rockies would eventually blow a lead bigger than 2 runs.  On Saturday in game 44, they lost a game where they led for only the fourth time all season (with 8 come from behind wins.)  This time they trailed by 2 before taking a 5 run lead in the 5th and then eventually losing by 4 after 9 unanswered runs were scored by the Reds.  Since that lead was blown by the end of the 6th, the Rockies still have an incredible record of 24-0 in games leading at the end of 6th, and 26-0 in games leading after 7 innings.  Only four of their 28 wins have been won after the 6th inning.

Overall they are 8-4 in comeback wins and losses after leading.  At this point last year they were 8-12 in such games  and would eventually be 33-48.

Road Warriors:  The Rockies are now 15-7 on the road this year.  2009 is the only year they had a winning road record at 41-40.

This Date in 2007:  On the morning of May 22, 2007, the Rockies sat at 18-27 in 5th Place in the National League West but only 7 games behind the Dodgers.  On May 22nd, they started their improbable rise going 72-46 the rest of the way.  We all know about their 14 out of 15 finish to the regular season, but the 58-45 rise is what is missed starting with a seven game winning streak that started on the road in Arizona and San Francisco to get them within striking distance of .500.

A Clock Strikes at Quarter Past

The Rockies are one game shy of the quarter pole in the season and have compiled a 24-15 record so far which guarantees them the best First Quarter of the season in their history.  In 1995, 1997 and 2014 they went 23-17.   The Rockies also completed a stretch where the were home in 21 of 35 games going 21-15 in that stretch.  Between now and July 2nd, they will be playing a stretch of 31 out of 45 Road games with only 14 home games in the next 7 weeks.

This is a key stretch, as they need to continue to play well on the road, while getting better at home. The Rockies completed a 6-4 home stand giving them a 13-10 record so far, but they are 11-5 on the road.   Can they maintain improve on their road record, or can they start dominating at home?  Will the pitching continue to dominate late as the Rockies have failed to give up a lead of more than 1 run all season and have won all 20 games that they have led after 6 innings.

The Rockies are now 8-2-2 in Series with both series losses coming at Coors Field (Padres and Nationals) They have a 4-0-1 Series Record on the Road. Both series ties have come against the Dodgers.  In 2016, they won their 8th series on June 15th.

Crossing the Lines:   The Rockies play their first inter-league games this week heading to Minnesota. This is their second visit to Target Field and only their third visit to Minnesota overall.    They have gone 1-2 on both trips there in 2003 and 2010.   Minnesota has visited Coors Field twice as well in 2008 and 2014 where they have split 6 games.   They next play the AL when Seattle comes to visit Coors on a home/home series starting May 29th.  Their AL games by month May: 6, June: 3, July: 3 August: 8.

Winning the West:  The Rockies have played 28 games against the NL West, and have compiled a 18-10 .642 record.  They next play a West Team on June 2nd in San Diego.  The rest of the wet has games this week (LA at SF and Ariz at SD) otherwise teams are playing teams outside of the division for the next three weeks.   At this point no other team is better than one game over .500 vs. the West.

Super Rookie, Rookie, Rookie

Going into the 2017 season, the Rockies expected to have a five man rotation that included Chad Bettis and Jon Gray.  While Bettis had to leave spring training in order to have treatments for his cancer, Gray started three games before leaving with a fractured toe on April 13th.  This left the Rockies with a starting five that included three Rookie Pitchers, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzetela, and Marquez German who pitched in 6 games for the Rockies last year.   So far they have started 18 total games and have compiled a 9-5 record, while the Rockies have a 12-6 record n games they started.

At the time Gray went down, the Rockies were 6-4, 7-4 after the game he left in.  Since then the Rockies have compiled a 15-9 Record, although they are 1-3 in games that Marquez has pitched in Gray's place.

Coors Field has historically been a pitcher's nightmare to pitch in.  To see three rookies come in and not be intimidated is amazing in itself.  For them ALL to come in and do it at the same time is unbelievable.    There have been several times where the Rockies Rookies had a bad inning, but they then come back to shut the hitters down after that.  For instance, on Tuesday's night game, Freeland gave up five runs (three earned) in the 2nd inning and was in danger of being taken out.  After the 2nd, Freeland pitched four additional scoreless innings.  Young pitchers usually have to work their way out, but at Coors field it is unusually difficult.  These pitchers are showing poise and confidence in the first couple of months and are a huge part of the Rockies success so far this year.

Hopefully Gray will be back soon, and it will be good to know that the Rockies have some arms in reserve if other injuries occur.

Dodgers Series:  The Dodgers come in to Coors field for the 2nd time this year for a four game set.  The Rockies lead the Dodgers by 1.5 games so a split would keep them in first place.  Both teams need a starter for Saturday, as the Rockies may go with Jeff Hoffman.  The Dodgers will throw Clayton Kershaw on Friday night in game 2.   The Dodgers come in on a 5 game winning streak and have won 10 of last 12.  They last played a team with a winning record on April 23rd in Arizona and are 6-8 vs. Winning Teams this season.  The Rockies meanwhile are 9-6 since April 23rd, with all but 3 of their games against teams with Winning Records.    So far they are 11-8 vs. teams that have a .500 or better record this season.  

Go West This Is Our Destiny

This weekend marked the end of Week 5 of the Major-League Season, and all NL West Teams have played each other home and home one time.  (Sometimes the Schedule makers make sense.)

Here's how the teams fared:

Rockies 16-8 (24 Games)
Arizona 14-13 (27 Games)
Los Angeles 13-12 (25 Games)
San Diego 11-14 (25 Games)
Giants 10-17 (27 Games)

The second time through the west starts this weekend with the Rockies hosting the Dodgers for four games.  This next go round will vary between teams, as the Giants and D-Backs will play their last meeting of the second round on August 27, while the Dodgers and San Diego finish up on August 13th.   The Rockies play the bulk of their second pass games in June with the last 17 games (and first two of July) played in a row, and finish the 2nd round on July 19 against San Diego.   They have zero games against the West in August, but all but three of their games after September 1st are against the west a total of 26 games.

Other than the games against the Dodgers, the Rockies now start playing against the rest of the league as well as the AL.  75 of their 86 non-west games are between now and August 30th.

Inter-League Madness
5 weeks into the season, and the NL West has played only 5 of their 100 inter-league games.  The Yankees alone have played 9 so far (counting  Sunday night's game as one game) and their next two games are at Cincinnati.     The Padres play 7 and Arizona has 2 this week. The Rockies play their first three AL Games next week, and the Dodgers play their first AL game on June 13th, on the same day that the Giants play thier next AL game (They've played two so far.)

ROCKIES Stats of Note:
Much has been made of the Rockies 9-0 record in 1 run games this year, but even more impressive is the fact that the Rockies have yet to blow more than a 1-run lead in any game this year.  They have six comeback wins including two from 3 down and one from 5 down.

Some Days are Diamonds Some Days are Stones

Without looking it up, this may have been one of the strangest weeks in Rockies History.   They were outscored 51-31 or just under 3 runs per game 7.3-4.4 but still managed to win 3 of the 7 games, and took a scoreless tie into the 13th inning yesterday before losing.  They came back from 3 and 5 runs down to win, while also closing a 10 run deficit to 3 before falling 15-12 on Tuesday. 

The Rockies have also put the first month behind them going 16-10 and are in first place.  Only in 1997 and 2011 have the Rockies had a better record after 26 games.  They are 8-0 in one run games and 4-3 in two-run games.  The youngest starting pitching staff in the majors has kept the Rockies in games and have a 9-9 record while the bullpen is 7-1 with yesterday's loss the only blemish.  

The Rockies played 16 of their first 26 games against 2016 playoff teams going 11-5 against them, while going only 5-5 in the 10 games against non-playoff teams.   May brings a respite, with only 7 games against last year's playoff teams next week against the Cubs and Dodgers at home with 22 others.  They also finish up a run of 17 of 23 home games (7-4 so far) before having a 22 of 29 on the road where they are 9-4 so far.  

This is It, Make No Mistake Where You Are

The Rockies are 14-6 which is their 2nd best start after going 15-5 in 1997.  They also were 14-6 after 20 games in 2011, but went on to a losing record.

The Rockies finally got their offense going outscoring their opponents 34-12 in this homestand.  They have their first four game winning streak of the season.  They are now 7-3 at home and 7-3 on the road.  After stopping the Nationals 7-game winning streak, they now own the best record in the National League and only trail Baltimore for the best record in MLB.

Through 20 games the Rockies pitching has held up pretty well.  Only five times have the starter failed to go at least 5 innings, and five times the starter has gone 7 or more including Chatwood's complete game shutout on April 15th.  The past week has eased the bullpen a little bit as the two off days, The relievers have only pitched 19 innings in the past 8 days.  It's still amazing that the Rockies have held their opponents to 4 runs or less 12 times and have a 10-2 record in One or Two run games.
German Marquez gets his first start filling in for Jon Gray tonight.  Gray is expected to be out until at least mid-May and the Rockies will need to fill in a handful of starts in his absence.

Where Has All The Offense Gone?

The Rockies are only 14 games into the season and have scored only 48 runs while giving up 55, which would generally equate to a losing record of 6-8 according to Baseball-Reference.com but actually have a 9-5 record.  To compare, in 2016 the Rockies had scored 66 runs but had given up 77 and had a 6-5 record after 11 games.  In 2015 they had a 7-4 record scoring 51 runs to 37 against.

The big difference is that the Rockies this year are winning the close games, going 8-1 in one and two run games.    The Giants meanwhile are 1-7 in One and two Run games which is why they are currently 5-9.

With the Rockies lineup, you know the bats will break out at some point, but for now the job by the starters and especially the bullpen has been lights out.  They are tied with Detroit for most Save Opportunies with 8 and have only blown 1.  

The Bullpen has worked 43 innings in 14 games which is just over 3 innings a game.   Their WHIP is 0.931.  The Trio of Adam Ottavino, Mike Dunn and Greg Holland have pitched 19 1/3 innings giving up 6 hits and 1 run.  Holland also has 7 Saves.

Even more encouraging is that in 10 of the 14 games the Pitching staff has held the opponent to 5 or fewer runs, and are 6-0 when leading after 6.  The only lead they lost late was in the 7th inning where Milwaukee tied up the game in the 7th off of Ottavino, but the Rockies came back to win it in the 9th.

Triumphs:  The Rockies won a 4 game series in San Francisco for the first time ever. 

Defeat:   Pitcher Jon Gray broke his foot on Thursday night and will be on the shelf for at least a month.  Rockies need to get Tyler Anderson's mechanics fixed quickly to fill the void.

Schedule Quirk 1:  The MLB schedule has each team play each team in its divison 19 times whcih means they play two teams 10 times at home and two teams 10 times on the road.  This usually results in a 4 game and 2-3 game series over the course of the season, and the other  two get three 3 game series.  For some reason this season is different.  The Rockies play the Giants and the Dodgers only 9 times on the road, but somehow they got a 4-3-2 schedule with both of them which is why the Rockies played 4 this weekend and only 2 in LA this week.

Schedule Quirk 2:  The Rockies have a total of 16 days off not including the All-Star Break which includes only 2 in April and 2 in May.   The two in April are both this week.  The next day off after is May 1st.

Schedule Quirk 3:  After the two game set in LA the Rockies play the next 17 of 23 at home with the road trip going to Phoenix and San Diego.  After that they play 31 out of 45 on the Road.   

Is This The Real Life? Is This Just Fantasy?

The people surrounding the Colorado Rockies are optimistic as they head into their 25th Season.  And it's not just Beginning of Season Fantasy Optimism, it's real Optimism, which they have had since late last season.

The Rockies already boast a stellar lineup with a starting eight that can field and hit like very few teams can.  They also have a lot of up and coming Starting Pichers that may rival the Dodgers and Giants in a Pitching heavy division.  Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Antonio Senzatela, and Hometown guy, Kyle Freeland round out the opening day Rotation, with others waiting in the wings when they are needed.

The bullpen has 8 arms including four who have closing experience.  Greg Holland has opened the season with 4 Saves and Jake McGee got the 5th one as the Rockies have not won by more than two runs so far this year.  In 2016 they were 24-36 in one or two run games,

Highlights of the first week:
Won 5 Games by 1 or 2 runs.
Won 2 Straight games by a 2-1 score for the first time since April, 1995.
Had a ML Debut of two consecutive starters for the first time in Rockies History.  One won his game the other pitched 5 scoreless innings.
Hit Back to Back Home Runs off of Clayton Kershaw who had never given up 2 Consecutive Home runs to anyone.
Hit three home runs in a game against Kershaw who hadn't allowed three since April, 2013.
Beat Kershaw for the first time in 12 Starts going back to July, 2013.

It's only six games with 156 to go, but this could be the competitive season we've been looking for.